Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential talks penalty rates, party leaders and Tony Abbott’s five-point plan, while recording no change on voting intention.

No change this week, at all, from the Essential Research fortnight rolling average – Coalition and Labor 37% apiece, Greens and One Nation 9%, Nick Xenophon Team 3%, 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred.

The poll finds 32% approval and 56% disapproval of the decision on penalty rates, with the disapproval more keenly felt (34% strongly) than the approval (9% strongly). Fifty-seven per cent thought the more likely result would be more profits for business, compared with 24% for more workers being employed. Fifty-one per cent favour legislation being passed to reverse the decision, with 31% opposed.

An occasional question on favoured party leaders shows little change for the Liberals since November, with Malcolm Turnbull down one to 20%, Julie Bishop down three to 17% and Tony Abbott on 10%, with Christopher Pyne, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton (the latter newly added as a response option) each on 2%. For Labor, Bill Shorten is up four to 21%, Tanya Plibersek is down one to 13%, Anthony Albanese is down one to 11%, Chris Bowen is down one to 3%, and Tony Burke is steady on 2%.

Tony Abbott’s five-point plan for Liberal recovery is put to the test: approval is registered for cutting immigration to make housing more affordable (57% to 28%) and reforming the Senate to reduce the power of small parties (41% to 34%), but abolishing the Human Rights Commission to allow more free speech scores 33% to 44% against, and ending subsidies and targets for renewables to reduce household power bills (40% to 38%) and stopping all new government spending (43% to 41%) come in neutral.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,280 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. I pointed it out yesterday:

    You point it out more regularly than that!

    Anyway, I’m off, there’s cricket to watch.

  2. Mr. William Bowe esquire.
    Musrum’s CCCP settings.

    Clean Vertical Space
    Add Comment Numbers
    Better Comment Numbers
    Comments Per Page

    Normally, all of these items are ticked ✔ .

    If “Clean Vertical Space” is ticked ✔ then William’s photo and information will not appear. Unticked and somebody has shaved his shapely skull and posted an unflattering picture.
    Dizgrazefel I calls it.

  3. Good grief…..

    John Schindler‏Verified account
    @20committee

    Follow
    More
    Learned fm very reliable IC sources that Trump WH, w/help fm Russian intel, is targeting US journalists. Rough road ahead. Get ready, peeps

  4. Rex you might be right about Andrew qualities but, like all state leaders, outside of his home state bugger all people would know who he was or what he does.

  5. Good afternoon all,

    I realise it is very obvious and it has been noted many times here before but I continue to be amazed at how adroit Bill Shorten has been over the last three years in getting all the policy ducks in line that will dominate the next two years.

    Climate change / energy policy, Banking RC, opposition to the company tax cuts for big business, negative gearing and capital gains changes etc etc. All of these issues are now moulding together into to a very strong narrative for labor. Shorten really does play a long game and his positioning and timing in presenting policy has constantly left the Libs on the back foot and the effect on the Libs rushing to catch up and thus bungle their responses is now getting clearer each day.

    Labor announced a EIS and 50 % renewerable target, the Libs jumped in and opposed everything ( as per usual )and their ” pavlovs dog ” reaction now means they are isolated in their policy direction. That is just one of many examples of how Shorten and labor have completely played the coalition and stoked coalition internal dysfuctipn as a bonus.

    If only the CPG would look further than the liberal drip tray and the noise they would realise what a great strategic game plan labor is implementing.

    Cheers.

  6. Malcolm Roberts on Raf Epstein’s program on 774.
    One Notion appears to have taken up the Green’s cry of ‘old parties’.

  7. If Saha had batted any further up the wicket he could have clocked some fours before the bowler had let go of the ball.

  8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louise_Mensch

    I have a vague notion that she was strip searched or the like by Homeland Security Goons for having the temerity to either leave or enter the US.
    It seems that part of the uproar had to to with the Goons treating a reactionary white woman the same as a black person, a hispanic person, or a person of middle eastern appearance.

  9. bk @ #66 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 5:14 pm

    Sam Dastyari tears down the latest. PHON candidates. What a bunch!
    https://twitter.com/samdastyari/status/838888618760400896

    Jeez mate.
    What a bunch indeed.
    Where is the training school for these people located ❓
    What do they have to do to graduate ❓
    What type of gag is required to make them appear sensible ❓
    Is the dumbing down of Australia proceeding or
    are we “there” already ❓
    My regimental dog pays not a whit of attention to just about everything and so is ahead of the game and probably secretly wonders what the hell I am on about from time to time.

    Peace ☮ ✌ and coffee ☕

  10. kevjohnno @ #65 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 5:12 pm

    Rex you might be right about Andrew qualities but, like all state leaders, outside of his home state bugger all people would know who he was or what he does.

    Premier Andrews’ best quality is his simple focus on doings thing for the public betterment, without giving a toss about the corporate backed media lobbyists.

  11. Sam Dastyari tears down the latest. PHON candidates.

    Mostly well done, but why the derision of female viagra? Assuming it’s actually a thing (which I’m not sure it is), what would be wrong with promoting it?

    I don’t think Labor should want to position itself as the “enjoying sex is bad” party. Let the Coalition bear the onus of that nonsense. That’s what the Christian-right is for.

  12. There is no real difference between Liberal and Nationals MPs and Senators and PHONey candidates.
    Pass it on”
    Was she not a rejected Liberal candidate at the start!.

  13. doyley @ #67 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    Labor announced a EIS and 50 % renewerable target …

    If they added a domestic gas reservation policy, they would have the best possible policy framework – one that is achievable at reasonable cost. As far as I know, the closest Labor have come so far is proposing a “National Interest Test” for new gas developments. From http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-labor-moves-for-national-interest-test-on-domestic-gas-supply-20160517-gox8wx

    This might include a conditional approval, under which some of the gas could be slated for LNG export, and some could be reserved for domestic use.

    However, this seems a bit wishy washy to me, since it does not include existing supplies. Labor needs to bite the bullet on this one.

  14. P1

    this seems a bit wishy washy to me, since it does not include existing supplies.

    I’d assume that it means that Labor do not know the legal implications that could result from existing agreements ie having to compensate the existing liscence holders.

  15. Player One

    Re pre existing deals, more than a few probs. The contracts are decades long and are signed by economic behemoths who could go toe to toe with Australia . Added to that some projects were developed solely to supply a couple of facilities owned by the company buying the LNG. The government could be up for staggering compensation bills if say a Tokyo Electric power station relied on the contract price of their LNG from Darwin.

  16. poroti @ #85 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 6:08 pm

    Re pre existing deals, more than a few probs. …

    I’m not sure why. We would essentially only be insisting that a very small fraction of the gas we export overseas should instead be sold domestically at the same price. So nobody with a current gas supply contract actually loses money, and new supplies will most likely make up for any volume shortfalls.

    In other words, I can’t really see the problem, except that it does effectively remove a large (but hidden) subsidy on domestic unconventional gas extraction. But then that’s also a good thing.

  17. Mark Butler MP‏Verified account @Mark_Butler_MP · 2h2 hours ago

    Experts confirm the problem isn’t renewable energy. It’s the Turnbull Government.

  18. Player One

    It is the customer end that is the problem. The projects have to sign them up before starting. The customer also builds stuff specifically catering for supply from a particular field. For instance. TEPCO and Tokyo Gas took all LNG from the first Darwin plant. They built ships specifically to take it from there and set up their supply line to service it. You could easily see huge compo awards as companies have to fluff around to get suitable replacement gas.I’m sure they have the legal and engineering fire power to “prove” in court the 932 reasons why they cannot ,except at huge ongoing expense, use gas from elsewhere.

  19. What’s Ciobo said now? It must have been baaad for him to apologise.

    Steven Ciobo‏Verified account @StevenCiobo · 15m15 minutes ago

    I apologise for the insensitivity of an announcement today – a day when we should be remembering those killed and injured 10 years ago

  20. Daniel Andrews‏Verified account @DanielAndrewsMP 3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Fracking banned. It’s official. Congratulations to all the communities who stood up for their farmland and their future.

    The peoples’ leader.

  21. 1934pc @5:45PM “Was she not a rejected Liberal candidate at the start!.”

    Pauline was the endorsed Liberal candidate in the 1996 Federal election in what had historically been a fairly safe Labor seat based on Ipswich. She made remarks insulting to Aborigines and was disendorsed by the party. She was already on the ballot paper as a Liberal – it was too late to change them. She was elected as an independent in the Howard landslide of 1996.

    And the rest is history.

  22. poroti @ #93 Tuesday, March 7, 2017 at 6:47 pm

    It is the customer end that is the problem …

    I reckon that if we started to talk about new company tax rates, or new resource taxes on supplies – or even just enforcing the taxes we already have – then they would fairly quickly see reason.

    Of course, it would take a government with cojones. Is Shorten up to it, do you think?

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