Western Australian election guide: deluxe edition

The complete Poll Bludger state election guide now gets even completer.

Not a moment too soon, you may now find (hopefully) an expanded Western Australian election guide herewith, featuring a comprehensive overview page and a region-by-region guide to the upper house, in addition to the long-established seat-by-seat guide to the lower house. To pre-empt your complaints: a) the site is playing up and you may intermittently find yourself encountering 404 errors, b) the map embeds may not be firing on all cylinders, and c) parts of the upper house guide could suffer more careful proof-reading. The first of these should resolve itself as the day progresses, and the second and third I’ll hopefully maybe have time to attend to at some point.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

58 comments on “Western Australian election guide: deluxe edition”

  1. Matt Quinn – these are the seats most in play according to Sportsbet Odds:
    Seat Margin Odds (ALP to win)
    West Swan (*)LIB 0.9% 1.03
    BelmontLIB 1.0% 1.03
    Swan HillsLIB 3.7% 1.07
    PerthLIB 2.8% 1.08
    BalcattaLIB 7.1% 1.12
    ForrestfieldLIB 2.2% 1.15
    MorleyLIB 4.7% 1.17
    Collie-Preston (*)LIB 2.9% 1.22
    JoondalupLIB 10.4% 1.25
    Southern RiverLIB 10.9% 1.30
    WannerooLIB 11.0% 1.30
    Mount LawleyLIB 8.9% 1.40
    BunburyLIB 12.2% 1.50
    BictonLIB 10.0% 1.83
    KalamundaLIB 10.3% 1.83
    Burns BeachLIB 11.3% 1.83
    Darling RangeLIB 13.1% 1.83
    JandakotLIB 18.3% 1.83
    Murray-WellingtonLIB 12.0% 3.50
    RivertonLIB 12.7% 3.75
    DawesvilleLIB 12.7% 4.00
    GeraldtonLIB 22.8% 4.00
    KingsleyLIB 14.0% 6.00
    HillarysLIB 16.0% 2.50 Independent to Win
    You can see this suggests 13 seats at $1.50 or shorter for the ALP to win.
    There are 5 seats which are $1.83 ALP, $1.83 Lib which is line ball. Two have no One Nation.
    There are also 5 seats in which the ALP is quoted at $3.50 to $6.00 which they indicates may be in play depending on the variability of the swing. There is a One Nation in all but Kingsley.
    One other Seat – Hillarys shows a strong chance for the Independent @ 2.50.
    The remaining 8 LNP seats all show the LNP at 1.01 ie. certainties!

    Of the 7 National Seats 2 appear to be a possibility of changing hands – Kalgoorlie and Pilbara (but not very likely as a collapsed Lib vote should make the Nats safe despite the mining royalties uncertainty).

  2. MQ – I have no argument with your analysis and wish it comes to fruition. The absolute worst outcome for Labor is to fall short by a seat or two or get a 1/2 seat majority with the minors controlling the Council. The LNP have been lagging Labor here for a long time – and consistently so – thus if polls mean anything at all, a Labor victory is the most likely outcome.

  3. Who here will be attending a Labor party post election party tomorrow night?

    I’ll be at the Swan Hills Labor post election party.

  4. Who here will be attending a Labor party post election party tomorrow night?

    Nah..will head beach hen gardening after my shift on the booth then settle in at home for evening with bottle of something to enjoy. Have fun though. 🙂

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