Western Australian election guide: deluxe edition

The complete Poll Bludger state election guide now gets even completer.

Not a moment too soon, you may now find (hopefully) an expanded Western Australian election guide herewith, featuring a comprehensive overview page and a region-by-region guide to the upper house, in addition to the long-established seat-by-seat guide to the lower house. To pre-empt your complaints: a) the site is playing up and you may intermittently find yourself encountering 404 errors, b) the map embeds may not be firing on all cylinders, and c) parts of the upper house guide could suffer more careful proof-reading. The first of these should resolve itself as the day progresses, and the second and third I’ll hopefully maybe have time to attend to at some point.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

58 comments on “Western Australian election guide: deluxe edition”

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  3. Can’t wait till monday then!

    ABC had a segment where they asked ‘who is McGowan?’ of random electors in the street. Most did not know, but that’s what you would expect of a state opposition leader.
    It would have been nice to have had the same question asked about Barnett – not sure all the answers would have been polite.

  7. Thanks William it looks good to me today. As I am very ignorant on WA electoral matters it will be my guide on Saturday night.
    I expect we will only get updates on ABC here in Qld so I hope you’ll have a live blog going keeping me better informed. How good is the WA Electoral Commission site on election nights?

  12. Keen to crack out the snacks for election night, this is set to be an interesting one. Potential implications for QLD as well regarding a potential ON/LNP deal here.

  13. Minor issue, William – the map for the Legislative Assembly guide indicates the electorate of “Nollamara”, while the list indicates Mirrabooka. The map’s link leads to a 404, incidentally – thought you might want to know.

  14. ReachTEL is robopolling this evening. In addition to voting intention and preferred Premier, they’re asking about attitudes to the Liberal-One Nation preference deal, and which major party is better to tackle the economy, debt reduction, social services and crime. The poll is also asking for reasons behind the voter’s choice – options include to change the government, usually vote this way, and attitudes to Colin Barnett and Roe 8. Presumably the results of this poll will be published on Saturday morning. The robot didn’t say who Reachtel was polling on behalf of.

  16. [ShowsOn from previous thread: Too many people in Wanneroo seem to be obsessed with abortion.]

    That doesn’t really surprise me with all the megachurches around the Joondalup/Landsdale areas.

  18. The West Australian’s editorial today advocates a vote for Labor, unde the heading “State deserves a fresh start”

    Can’t disagree with that.

  19. Is there much chance that, after the election, McGowan will say “we’re broke” and slug the miners? Is there any chance he’ll have to broker a deal with the Nats to that effect?

  20. I also got the Reachtel poll last night. It’s interesting that it is on my landline, which is on the “do not call” register, which ONLY ever gets calls from fundraisers, and now 4 robocalls (which really infuriate me!) and one actual call from the ALP. I am in the seat of Darling Range, where Labor has never campaigned before. My sense is one of total Liberal implosion, and that the 13% swing required for them to lose Darling Range may well happen!

  21. antonbruckner11 @ #19 Friday, March 10, 2017 at 10:24 am

    Is there much chance that, after the election, McGowan will say “we’re broke” and slug the miners? Is there any chance he’ll have to broker a deal with the Nats to that effect?

    I posted in one of the earlier threads that I think there will be some sort of deal between Labor and the Nationals along the lines of BHP and Rio Tinto getting it in the neck when it becomes apparent that there will be a choice between cuts to public services and the miners getting it in the neck.

  22. Labor and the Nationals need to get on the front foot to counter the Minerals Council of Australia argument about jobs. The fact is that modern mining is extremely capital intensive and the miners are going full bore down the path of further automation.

  26. Anton – definitely hope so. The mining companies have been laughing all the way to the bank for decades now, at our expense. They need to realize that they’re being given a PRIVILEGE to make a profit off OUR mineral wealth.

  28. Matt I actually think the coverage in the news columns has been fairly even handed by past standards.

    Labor has rightly been asked about funding and Barnett about One Nation.

    There was the early clumsy attempt by Paul Murray to smear John Carey, which disappeared without trace.

    I guess the question of the paper not wanting to back the wrong team can rightly be asked but you would have to be the most one-eyed Liberal to not concede they need a kick in the pants for what they have done.

    Barnett has not been known to apologise for much, if anything. If they lose his speech might be interesting.

  29. The Worst wouldn’t really be backing the ALP any more than the Murdoch press backed K07. They’ll just be putting in a token effort while the writing is on the wall to make sure that the incoming government doesn’t hold too many grudges and think that they’ve got nothing to lose by doing something about Press rules.
    [I wonder what the One Nation preference flows will be like in Scarborough]
    I doubt that the ON vote in Scarborough would be enough to have any real impact. It’s an inner city electorate now, and I’d expect the Green vote to be more than the ON vote (of course I could be completely misreading it!), and that the Libs clearly expect to win or they’d be sandbagging it as it’s Liza Harvey’s electorate.

  30. I too, like some here, am surprised at the West’s support today in its editorial for Labor. I liken it to the West – usually – on the side of the conservatives, but sensing the writing is on the wall and wanting to appear credible, have oped for Labor. A bit like your side in the grand final, which you have supported though thick and thin, but come the day and when opposed by a team which may wipe the floor with you, reality must be admitted. I listened to Mooner Murray on 6PR today and I doubt whether I have heard him sound so despondent his beloved side of politics looks like they are going down. However, I will admit he did not either bag Labor or excuse the LNP this time around. It sounded as though his head was talking today. He claimed, of course, that he had seen the LNP demise ages ago, nodding to the fact that very few WA government have managed 3 terms – and, as he pointed out, when they did occur, this was in the period of 3-year terms. He pointed out, under the older terms, Barnett would already be in his third term 8 1/2 years in. He has put it down to the “it’s time” factor and conceded that the Liberals had been bereft of anyone to replace Barnett………………..for a long time…………..Liza Harvey notwithstanding……………………………………

  31. Those social services figure are also reflected in housing prices in the area. The Real Estate Institute inadvertently let the cat out of the bag about a month ago when they sent a post promoting which are the growth suburbs in the state. What they didn’t realise was that their embedded spreadsheet included ALL suburbs. and it showed falls of 9%-12% in just 12 months in suburbs around Armadale, Kelmscott, Roleystone and Gosnells. Didn’t stop them putting out another one yesterday proclaiming that things are on the up, and that this is a sellers’ market! Credibility? Zilch!

  32. William – there is a problem with you charts for “Post redistribution primary” – in fact, they are just each of the two leading parties’ primaries as a percentage of the votes cast for those two parties only, rather than as a percentage of the total valid primary vote, and therefore add up to 100%, which they obviously shouldn’t. I hope this makes sense!!

  33. Matt Quinn – speaking of the Murdoch press “backing” K07, I note that Bill Leak just died. Much of his recent work has been obnoxious, but I did enjoy the “Tintin” series he drew in the leadup to the 2007 Federal election.

  34. The death threats to several Liberal Party members are to be deplored, and hopefully the perpetrator will soon be behind bars where he or she belongs.

    It is sad that according to the information in the threatening note, a member of the Liberal Party’s natural constituency, the small business community, should feel so aggrieved at the party as to be driven to this deplorable behaviour.

    It would perhaps have been helpful to the police, in their enquiries, and in protecting the members concerned, if the Liberal Party had no so quickly to the press to air the information, before even the extent of the threatening behaviour was known.

    Why did they do this?

  37. Having read The West Australian today and the editorial in question, they started by talking about how great a Premier Barnett has been, how unlucky Barnett has been, how bad the Nationals are, how bad/untrustworthy Labor have been and right at the end spoke positively about McGowan and backed him. All two sentences worth.

    I guess by their standards it’s “balanced” but they did as little as possible. Meanwhile still helping old mate Colin attack McGowan by going after the naming rights of sports stadium. Obvious contradictions aside (Paterson/Domain Stadium!) it’s obvious flailing.

    The old sailing idiom that a good first mate stays with the captain on a sinking ship must be true.

  38. Not sure I follow, Jeremy – whizzed around a few seats in the election, but not seeing any where the two parties’ primaries are adding up to 100. Can you point to a particular example?

  41. Up to 20 seats? Wow.

    I could find 15 possible seats, but the next four are a challenge. My initial 16 were Belmont, Forrestfield, Swan Hills, Balcatta, Morley, Perth, Joondalup, Wanneroo, Burns Beach, Southern River, Riverton, Kalamunda, Darling Range, Bicton, Mt Lawley and Bunbury.

    Four more? I’d guess Jandakot as it’s been talked about and Kingsley makes sense as part of a general Joondalup City area revolt, then two more? Geraldton to the Nats perhaps? Then the last one – would have to come from Dawesville, or perhaps Scarborough or Carine (there hasn’t been an ALP member in my area since Innaloo was abolished in 2005).

    If it’s leaked Liberal polling, I’d guess they believe they’re dead, and are putting out the worst case scenario so anything less seems a good result.

    If ON don’t get 10% of the vote, I’d think Lib/ON preference deals will be dead nationwide after this election.

  42. Matt
    Where do you place Hillarys? Johnston has a strong local following and could he surprise and hold out Katsambanis, who seems to have the has been been talked up as a future leader and according to William is a Cormann/Collier/Globalheart church candidate.

  43. I don’t think it is a good idea to get too carried away by translating favourable polls for Labor for some kind of wipe-out for Labor. Ten seats has always been a big hill to climb. It would be handy for Labor to have a buffer of 3-4 seats but having seen – and for a variety of reasons which may not apply in WA – Clinton losing in the US and Brexit getting up despite the prediction of many polls – some caution should be applied here too. Talk of 15 plus seats is optimistic in the extreme. What is of interest, with a strong vote for Labor in the lower house, is the change to Labor’s fortunes in the Legislative Assembly. It may well be, for the benefit of both, Labor and LNP or just L, may have more interest in keeping the likes of ON at arm’s length than hacking into one another.

  44. 13 to 20 sounds very precise, doesn’t it? I take it they’ve written off 13 seats as lost, with another seven in doubt. (If instead the figure was “15 to 20” that would sound more like an approximation.)

    So what are the 13? There are nine seats – including the two notionals – under 10%. It’s safe to assume they’re gone. That leaves four. That happens to be exactly the number the West reported last week as being last stand battlegrounds: Bicton, Kalamunda, Joondalup and Southern River. I’d say they’re gone as well.

    The remaining seven? I would guess Wanneroo, Bunbury, Jandakot, Darling Range, Burns Beach, Riverton and one of Hillarys or Kingsley. Alternatively, perhaps we need to look outside of Perth to Dawesville or Murray-Wellington.

  45. In a normal election, I’d expect Hillarys to fall behind the Liberal candidate. But there seems to be a bit of discontent about Katsambaris’ pre-selection (he’s an associate of Moore MHR Ian Goodenough, and it seems that there may have been some branch stacking going on). With that, I’d think Hillarys is certainly a chance to move to the Independent column – similar to the 1996 Federal election where attempts to force unpopular candidates in Curtin and Pearce resulted in the previous Liberal MHRs winning as Independents.

    Tim Macknay – It’s been a long while since we sat about with beer and talked politics (and I think everyone else disappeared to watch soccer). I think I’d given up on the Australian long prior to that election so I probably never saw those cartoons – I’ll have a look.

  46. I think Katsambanis has more to do with Cormann and Collier than Goodenough and Globalheart. Regarding branch stacking, note that Katsambanis did actually lose the local party vote by a pretty substantial margin.

  48. William – My abject apologies for casting aspersions! I was misreading the chart titles (down rather than up). You are, of course, perfectly correct!

  49. Tricot – If the overall WA polls are showing a big movement to the ALP, then I think it’s quite possible for it to be a wipeout for the Libs. Since we know that swings are not even, a not unreasonable scenario would be little movement in the western and river suburb electorates, and little (on the 2PP) in parts of regional WA where they’d usually like to burn ALP candidates at the stake in preference to voting for them (plus they have the fun of Lib v Nat in some cases). And there might not be much more to gain in some of the ALP’s stronger seats like Armadale and Fremantle.

    Based on that, the swing in the rest of the Perth Metro area could easily be big enough to move a swathe of seats even if the state swing wouldn’t be enough on a uniform swing to change government. In fact, if Perth swung 11%, and the regions zero, the ALP could win with an overall 8% swing – so 51-49. Indeed less, as my 11% includes the Lib heartland electorates that I don’t think will swing at all.

    David Walsh – I didn’t think of including the notional Lib seats, I read it as 13 seats they currently hold. Including Collie-Preston and West Swan makes it seem more likely to get to the higher numbers without including unexpectedly out there results.

    William – that makes sense as well. Either way, the Hillarys pre-selection has been a shambles (and was always going to be once Johnston didn’t go quietly), and if that gets out to the public, then they are known to smack the party that bollockses it up.

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