BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Slight movement to the Coalition in this week’s poll aggregate reading, with still no sign of slackening in the trend towards One Nation.

A bit of a blip towards the Coalition in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which only has a new Essential Research result to go on. This translates into extra seats for the Coalition in Victoria and Queensland. The only other feature of the result worth remarking on is that it’s still onwards and upwards for One Nation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

366 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  3. lizzie:

    I’m thinking there might be subtle underlying links too with the length of his ties. I’ve never seen a man wear such loooong ties.

  4. Grimace
    Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    We can cite many examples of highly positive reactions from voters in the north….from coast right across through Burns Beach and Joondalup, Wanneroo and West Swan….very happy declarations from voters, assuring us they want to support change…becoming more pronounced every week.

  6. he had the votes in the ONLY place that matters in the US system.

    Yes, I don’t dispute that. Just claims that Trump’s message spoke to more people than Hillary’s.

    That’s factually untrue, and the presence of the electoral college doesn’t change that. It only means that it’s possible to win with a message that most people actually don’t want.

  9. dave @ #228 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 5:41 pm

    Grimace
    What sort of noises are Labor making about the State debt – how they address it
    etc ?
    Are these topics in play as the campaign comes down to the pointy bit?

    Not in Swan Hills. The biggest issue here by a long, long way is Metronet. The next biggest is ice/crime. There is a lot of anger directed at Barnett for overspending and blowing the mining boom.

    Labor has said they’ll cut the debt slowly and methodically, made the usual noises about cutting waste, but nothing specific.

  10. kayjay @ #243 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 6:44 pm

    don
    #239 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 6:24 pm
    You are well of the beaten track here, my friend.
    Where resides the parliamentary map that comes with a torch and a mirror on a stick which enables the LNP and PHON elected members to find their collective (or individual) arses
    Huh Huh Answer me that monsewer.
    :really smutty emoji designed to upset William:

    Well, if you don’t get off the beaten track you wind up in civilisation, and that is what I am trying to avoid!

    For short times of a few days at a time, at least. You appreciate your comforts even more when you get back, like stopping hitting yourself on the head with a brick.

    The weather is at last looking conducive for bushwalking again. It is 500 metres lower in the gorges, so it is 5 degrees warmer, which is great when it is frosty up above, but when it is 35 C up here, it is like an oven down there, especially with the radiation from the (rocky) gorge walls.

    With regard to the parliamentarians, It reminds me of something my father used to say:

    ‘They couldn’t empty the water out of a gum boot if the instructions were on the heel! ‘

  13. Dave, it is not just the taxpayers who pay for clean up of all those plastic bottles.
    Our seas are filling with the stuff and just about every sea creature has a belly full (literally) and are headed to extinction because of it.

  14. don
    #239 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 6:24 pm
    I don’t envy you, but wish you well with your outings.
    I consider myself well off if I wake up in the morning and can roll out of bed relatively pain free.
    Good night to all.
    ❇ ♥✳Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ✌

  17. There are so many examples and classes of worker exploitation that Labor should continue to hammer the government with. For example, franchise wage rorts, 457 visa rorts, lack of support for penalty rates. In almost all cases it is the natural constituency of the Coalition who are the perpetrators.
    Add to this the behaviour of the banks, the spiv VET outfits, etc.

  18. BK

    Has this Dutton special come out of left field?

    Goodness no. Anything from Dutton will be waaay over there from the right field.

  21. kayjay @ #264 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:30 pm

    don
    #239 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 6:24 pm
    I don’t envy you, but wish you well with your outings.
    I consider myself well off if I wake up in the morning and can roll out of bed relatively pain free.
    Good night to all.

    I have had vastly more than a fair share of good luck in my life, but like you, I suspect, any morning that I don’t wake up dead is a great day!

  22. BK:

    Are Abbott and Dutton tag-teaming each other? Abbott makes a kamikaze attack on the govt, and while the furore ensues, Dutton sneaks through more changes to the relevant laws.

  23. steve777 @ #241 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    Grimace: “I’ll be handing out HTV’s on 11th March, it will be interesting to see how many volunteers they {One Nation} can mobilise.”
    And of those, how many will be Liberal Party members.

    Earlier this week Howard and Turnbull were campaigining in Jandakot (19% margin). If Liberal HQ feel that Jandakot is realistically in play then the Liberal party faithful will be far too busy making decisions about which furniture to sandbag to be at all worried about PHON in seats which are lost causes like Swan Hills and West Swan (immediately adjacent to Swan Hills and the next biggest immediate beneficiary of Metronet).

  24. Peter van OnselenVerified account‏@vanOnselenP 9m9 minutes ago
    Newspoll wow!

    Does this mean we’re getting a Newspoll tonight?

  25. “‘They couldn’t empty the water out of a gum boot if the instructions were on the heel”

    Good one 😀

    So on top of the boot, it says, “If boot fills with water or other liquid, to empty see instructions on heel”. On the heel it says “Congratulations! You did it.”

  29. Earlier this week Howard and Turnbull were campaigining in Jandakot

    Turnbull’s appearance over here has been written off by Liberals as a waste of time, with the assertion he won’t be returning. He was reportedly here for less than 24 hrs.

    Given it was Libs who said it, that tells me everything I need to know about how well-received MT is in WA’s election. In essence, a negative, rather than a positive.

    But it leaves me wondering what will they do once Howard is no longer a feasible campaign go-to?

  32. ‘They couldn’t empty the water out of a gum boot if the instructions were on the heel”

    Good one 😆 My fave is from John Clarke “He is so useless he couldn’t get a job as a speed hump in a car park”

  34. steve777 @ #275 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:46 pm

    “‘They couldn’t empty the water out of a gum boot if the instructions were on the heel”
    Good one
    So on top of the boot, it says, “If boot fills with water or other liquid, to empty see instructions on heel”. On the heel it says “Congratulations! You did it.”

    Exactly, and if you have half way decent luck, they tip the water down the front of their trousers.

  35. PvO only tweets about Newspoll if its about to come out that night for tomorrow’s paper, because he only sees it the afternoon before. So yes, Newspoll tonight. In the past his “wow” could mean anything (including no real change, just to take the piss), although this time if I had to guess it means a movement to the govt.

  36. leroy lynch @ #285 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    PvO only tweets about Newspoll if its about to come out that night for tomorrow’s paper, because he only sees it the afternoon before. So yes, Newspoll tonight. In the past his “wow” could mean anything (including no real change, just to take the piss), although this time if I had to guess it means a movement to the govt.

    How on earth could that be? They have several weeks of disasters behind them and more in sight ahead.

  40. Thanks Leroy. Bludgertrack has move infinitesimally to the coalition so no reason not to imagine Newspoll wouldn’t as well.

  41. bemused – In line with Essential? Who really knows how the disinterested public is reacting to events, or even if they’re noticing them? I tend to think most stuff we pay attention to just doesn’t matter to most. If its a movement to Labor though, I’d put it down to penalty rates, maybe the only real cut-through issue around at the moment, although I would have thought that would take a week or two to sink in.

  42. vogon poet @ #288 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    bemused @ #281 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:53 pm

    boerwar @ #278 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    Real organic honey would not have any additives.
    https://www.tastyhoney.com/blog/tag/fake-honey/

    Where can I get ‘inorganic’ honey?

    Imported honey has been found to contain C4 sugars, corn syrup or cane sugar. Allowrie use Chinese “honey “, previously found to contain extra chemicals.

    Are they organic or inorganic chemicals?

  43. leroy lynch @ #285 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    PvO only tweets about Newspoll if its about to come out that night for tomorrow’s paper, because he only sees it the afternoon before. So yes, Newspoll tonight. In the past his “wow” could mean anything (including no real change, just to take the piss), although this time if I had to guess it means a movement to the govt.

    If you don’t know whether it is positive or negative for the government, it is a useless comment.

    Which means that all PVO is doing is saying ‘Nyah! Nyah! I’ve seen it and you haven’t!’

    He’s being a smartarse.

  44. LL – Penalty rates is a biggie though. It really makes people sit up. The libs have also been dissolving for ages. There must come a point when there is a reckoning.

  45. Dan Gulberry – all that tweeter has done is taken the graph The Oz always has up, and that hasn’t been updated since 6 Feb.

  47. leroy lynch @ #291 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:01 pm

    bemused – In line with Essential? Who really knows how the disinterested public is reacting to events, or even if they’re noticing them? I tend to think most stuff we pay attention to just doesn’t matter to most. If its a movement to Labor though, I’d put it down to penalty rates, maybe the only real cut-through issue around at the moment, although I would have thought that would take a week or two to sink in.

    I am a believer in ‘the vibe’.
    The punters may not know the details but the bad news for the govt is so pervasive it must affect popular perception or ‘the vibe’.
    We shall see in a few hours.

  49. I always thought that organic honey was honey that hadn’t been heat treated to stop it candying.

    It never crossed my mind that someone would use sugar or corn syrup to bulk it up.

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