BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Slight movement to the Coalition in this week’s poll aggregate reading, with still no sign of slackening in the trend towards One Nation.

A bit of a blip towards the Coalition in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which only has a new Essential Research result to go on. This translates into extra seats for the Coalition in Victoria and Queensland. The only other feature of the result worth remarking on is that it’s still onwards and upwards for One Nation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

366 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

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  1. William

    Thank you for your judgement on John Smith.

    On Poll matters, is it the effect of PHON that is giving the Coalition a boost?

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny describes Turnbull as Kevin Rudd without the popularity. Ouch!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-is-kevin-rudd-without-the-popularity-20170224-gukefc.html
    Amy Remeikis writes about George Christensen’s plan to stop Coalition voters drifting across to One Nation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-christensens-plan-to-stop-voters-drifting-to-pauline-hanson-one-nation-20170224-gul2aj.html
    Peter FitzSimons tells Tony Abbott he doesn’t have a clue about renewable energy and climate change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-tony-abbott-just-doesnt-understand-about-renewable-energy-20170224-guky2x.html
    Like many Americans, Australians are wondering how the hell we ended up with a PM whose environment policies are a recipe for disaster. Turnbull is heading us to disaster writes Sue Arnold.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/like-trump-turnbulls-environmental-wtfness-is-propelling-us-to-disaster,10056
    Now it’s Rugby Union guys getting into potentially big drug trouble.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/former-wallabies-star-james-oconnor-allegedly-arrested-attempting-to-buy-cocaine-reports-20170225-guldjf.html
    The Catholic Church, which has presided over a decades-long international cover-up of countless cases, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of child rape and other sexual abuse is arguably guilty of crimes against humanity writes Michael Short.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/is-the-catholic-church-guilty-of-crimes-against-humanity-20170223-gujy2v.html
    Yes, the church is finally facing its day of reckoning.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/25/i-went-to-bed-screaming-child-abuse-survivor-speaks-as-church-faces-moment-of-reckoning
    The prominent women’s refugee advocate, domestic violence campaigner and Australian of the Year finalist has had her assets frozen by the powerful NSW Crime Commission following an investigation into “serious crime related activity” and her “unexplained wealth”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/child-bride-survivor-eman-sharobeem-has-assets-frozen-by-nsw-crime-commission-20170220-gugqxj.html
    Here is a law suit what could prove to be a concerning precedent for contact sports to consider. An NRL player is suing his club over concussions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/former-nsw-origin-winger-james-mcmanus-sues-newcastle-knights-over-concussions-20170225-gul6z8.html
    Apparently Trump’s wall is “way, way ahead of schedule”.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/02/25/donald-trumps-border-wall/

  3. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    The biggest problem with Centrelink is the continued reduction in staffing levels as demand continues to increase – both as a result of management and policy decisions and directions. Don;t blame the staff. They do their best.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/centrelink-is-an-easy-target-for-complaints-but-there-are-two-sides-to-every-story-20170224-gukr4x.html

    Cathy Wilcox and the warriors of the right.

    Broelman’s discovery of another planet.

    Mark Knight with a ripper on the resignation of the Victorian Speakers.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/acc25886f6a871e555878ff30f898b2b?width=1024

  4. Our own little Fukushima?

    The burial of radioactive cows was confirmed by the Department of Primary Industries (DPI), which has not revealed why the cows were treated with radioactive tritium dyes. The DPI has, however, “indicated historic burial of potentially radioactive carcasses” over a number of zones within the greenfield site.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/a-sewage-farm-a-youth-detention-centre-now-meet-werribees-radioactive-cows-20170224-gul26r.html

  5. Lizzie
    Oh no! Section 2 got gobbled. I’ll try again.

    Section 2 . . .

    Just have a look at the stories in PoliticusUSA to see how the Trump administration is motoring!
    http://www.politicususa.com/
    According to Amy Remeikis Liberal electorates are among the hardest hit by the penalty rate reductions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-electorates-among-hardest-hit-by-penalty-rate-changes-20170225-gul6p5.html
    Paul McGeough says the evidences it there to support the premise that America is facing the unthinkable becoming the possible.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/as-the-tempo-of-trumps-media-war-rises-the-unthinkable-becomes-possible-20170225-gul63s.html
    Denying journalists from the Guardian, New York Times and other outlets access to a press briefing is an authoritarian move. A swift response is needed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/24/white-house-radical-attack-first-amendment-cnn-new-york-times
    Why do mainstream media sing from the same song sheet? The importance of independent media was never more than it is today.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/why-does-mainstream-media-sing-from-the-same-songsheet,10055
    First it was Sweden’s leaders and now it is France’s that hit back at Trump comments. A statesman extraordinaire!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/french-president-francois-hollande-hits-back-at-donald-trump-over-paris-comments-20170225-gulefv.html
    Annabel Crabbe on the problems for Gen Y.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/generation-y-must-be-close-to-revolution-20170224-gukink.html
    More internecine problems surface in the NSW Liberal Party. Is the hand of Abbott involved in this?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/michael-photios-resigns-as-the-leader-of-nsw-liberals-dominant-left-faction-20170225-gulctv.html
    And. showing it does have SOME standards, it bans the odious hypocrite Ross Cameron for four years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ross-cameron-cops-fourandahalf-year-ban-for-criticising-gladys-berejiklian-20170224-gul4nr.html
    Pauline Hanson, in another display of One Nation stability, has sacked two WA candidates.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/hanson-dumps-one-nation-wa-candidates-for-criticising-libs-preference-deal-20170225-gul7ob.html

  6. Good Morning Bludgers! 🙂
    Up at a ‘normal’ time today.
    Thank goodness Insiders has Chris Bowen on. What’s the betting that Barrie asks him to explain Labor’s Renewable Energy policy? 😉

  7. One in five species on Earth now faces extinction, and that will rise to 50% by the end of the century unless urgent action is taken. That is the stark view of the world’s leading biologists, ecologists and economists who will gather on Monday to determine the social and economic changes needed to save the planet’s biosphere.

    “The living fabric of the world is slipping through our fingers without our showing much sign of caring,” say the organisers of the Biological Extinction conference held at the Vatican this week.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/25/half-all-species-extinct-end-century-vatican-conference?CMP=share_btn_tw

  8. Victorians could end up paying more to remove levels crossings on the Frankston train line, after the Andrews government decided not to build “skyrail” in some of its most marginal suburbs in the hope of avoiding an electoral backlash.

    The Sunday Age can reveal that bayside communities in Edithvale and Bonbeach will get their wish to not have elevated rail near their homes, with the government set to announce that those key sections of the track will be lowered under the road.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/no-skyrail-for-bonbeach-and-edithvale-as-government-attempts-to-avert-backlash-20170225-gulb5i.html

  9. Lizzie,
    Grog is the best Economics writer in Australia today because he perceives the human aspect to Economics that others sometimes miss.

    I know Ross Gittins is good also, however he sometimes loses the plot for some reason I haven’t been able to fathom from someone so perceptive.

    Grog never seems to miss. His aim is true. 🙂

  10. I very much agree with these sentiments:

    plmg53 38m ago
    I can’t recall any decision by the FWC (or it’s previous incarnations the Industrial Relations Commission, or before that, the Conciliation and Arbitration Commission) that rips off workers so comprehensively without recompense in some form.
    Greg, I look forward to future articles charting the change in employment in these sectors in future. Although, if as I expect, employment won’t change much, the employer groups will probably cry “not enough!” and will return for another round of cuts.

    ball27 plmg53 26m ago
    They will complain about a union conspiracy to stop people spending on Sundays and blame the unions. They will never understand that the people earning the money also spend it and if you take money out of their pays they can’t spend so the economy slows.
    Another thing the FWC forgets, we live in a society not and economy.

  11. Here is prediction:

    That the usual tide of Islamophobic commentary from the Government will be silenced while Jokowi is in town.

  12. It’s interesting that those in favour of cutting penalty rates don’t seem to understand what they themselves are saying.

    For starters, they all seem to admit that the workers affected will be single mothers and University students – that is, people who do not have full time employment.

    What that means is that, even under our present ‘generous’ system, there are statistically virtually no workers who work 9-5, Monday to Friday, who find the idea of working for double pay on a Sunday attractive enough to do it.

  13. Boerwar

    Here is prediction:

    That the usual tide of Islamophobic commentary from the Government will be silenced while Jokowi is in town.

    Due to their respect and consideration of the PM ? lol

  14. The maths says for a person to make up for the 200% to 150% change a person would need to work an additional one third as many more hours on a Sunday. A bit difficult if the shop isn’t open that long!

  15. Bemused

    There is something distasteful in hubris about a banning.

    Hubris? Don’t be silly. I’m just pleased that Williams sets a high standard.

  16. lizzie @ #12 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:13 am

    Victorians could end up paying more to remove levels crossings on the Frankston train line, after the Andrews government decided not to build “skyrail” in some of its most marginal suburbs in the hope of avoiding an electoral backlash.
    The Sunday Age can reveal that bayside communities in Edithvale and Bonbeach will get their wish to not have elevated rail near their homes, with the government set to announce that those key sections of the track will be lowered under the road.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/no-skyrail-for-bonbeach-and-edithvale-as-government-attempts-to-avert-backlash-20170225-gulb5i.html

    I will be very disappointed if there is a political backdown on this.
    Building elevated rail is the right thing to do and the Govt should be prepared to stare down the NIMBYs and defend the decision.
    I think it will actually prove to be politically popular once people see what it is really like and the positive effect on their suburb.

  17. bemused @ #34 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 9:21 am

    lizzie @ #30 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 9:11 am

    Bemused

    There is something distasteful in hubris about a banning.

    Hubris? Don’t be silly. I’m just pleased that Williams sets a high standard.

    He does when it appears a popular move.

    It’s his blog. He can do what he bloody well likes. Mr Smith or you or I can go off and set up our own blogs if we don’t like what William does here. And William permitting you to criticise him here without banning you is also his call.

  18. It didn’t take long for businesses not covered by the FWA decision to call for the pay cuts to apply to them –

    On Thursday, the Fair Work Commission cut Sunday and public holiday penalty rates for hospitality, fast food and retail workers after finding they were no longer a “fair and relevant” safety net.

    The commission said the change was justified because a “typical” fast food worker is a student who likes to work a mix of weekdays and weekends.

    However, cafe and restaurant workers even though they are also typically students are covered by a different award and the commission said the restaurant and catering industry had not “established a merit case sufficient to warrant varying the Sunday penalty rates in this award.”

    Mr Bannister {a cafe owner} said any changes to penalty rate cut should apply consistently particularly if they do the same job during the same hours.

    “We definitely think the cut should apply fairly across all businesses,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/industrial-relations/cafes-and-restaurants-miss-out-on-cut-to-sunday-penalty-rates-20170224-gukpjq

  19. Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol. I loved the story about Pence tweeting support for Israel using the Nicaraguan flag rather than the Israel flag. Is there anyone in the WH who knows what they’re doing?

  20. Lizzie, the word ‘sad’ withdraws power from the target. That’s why they used it. It is aimed at deflating the argument. Resistance and anger escalates … shaking head and saying ‘sad’ deflates it.

  21. I am still gobsmacked by the actions of the Victorian Speaker and Deputy Speaker.
    What on earth were they thinking?
    What they did was just so self-evidently wrong,
    I can understand the State Govt wanting to avoid by-elections just now, but those two should depart in disgrace at the next election.

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