Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A turn for the worse for the Turnbull government in the first Newspoll result for three weeks.

James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% (CORRECTION: make that 34%) with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-33, down from 42-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2: A ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, conducted for The Australia Institute, has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, the Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation. Other findings from the poll relate to company tax and renewable energy. The poll was conducted last Monday from a sample of 863.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest result from Essential Research moves a point in favour of Labor, putting their two-party lead at 53-47. This modest shift obscures some striking movement on the primary vote, with Labor up three points – very unusual from Essential’s normally sedentary fortnightly rolling average – with the Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Nick Xenophon Team all down a point, respectively to 37%, 9%, 9% and 3%. Other findings from the poll are that 44% approve and 35% disapprove of negative gearing; 37% approve and 41% disapprove of capital gains tax reductions on the same of investment properties; and 64% support and 16% oppose a royal commission into banking. Also featured are occasional questions on the attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, which record negligible change since September – the biggest being a five-point drop for Turnbull as “visionary”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,111 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. Grimace
    Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 12:51 am
    @ Briefly

    I also feel very strongly that in the medium and long term that absolutely nothing good can come from pandering to fear, racism and bigotry.

    I completely agree.

  2. PHON candidates are falling like flies over here in the last week. They’re either quitting or being dumped, all at the last minute. The rest are tinfoil hat designers & manufacturers as Roger Miller points out above.
    I hope 54-46 is a real set of numbers that come out in the wash next Saturday.

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny writes on political delusions being mugged by reality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/when-political-delusions-get-mugged-by-reality-20170303-guqak1.html
    John Alexander has become, with good reason, a champion for housing affordability.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/how-liberal-mp-john-alexander-became-a-champion-of-housing-affordability-20170303-guqady.html
    Meanwhile tens of thousands of first home buyers will no longer have to pay stamp duty on properties worth up to $600,000 under an Andrews government plan to make housing more affordable.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/stamp-duty-cut-set-for-first-home-buyers-20170304-guqq66.html
    A good contribution from Lenore Taylor who says this government only sees what it wants to see.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/04/coalitions-laser-like-focus-only-sees-what-it-wants-to-see
    Trump, if ever he had it, is losing the plot as he tweets an accusation that Obama wiretapped Trump Tower.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-president-donald-trump-accuses-barack-obama-of-wire-tapping-trump-tower-20170304-guqvt1.html
    But President Obama reminded America of what a real president looks like by returning to demolish Trump’s lie that the former president ordered a wiretap on Trump Tower.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/03/04/real-president-returns-obama-eviscerate-trumps-wiretap-lies.html
    Nick Xenophon will launch a new South Australian political party on Sunday called SA Best, promising to provide a genuine third alternative at the 2018 state election. Google.
    /news/south-australia/nick-xenophon-launching-new-south-australian-party-called-sa-best/news-story/5be68c62bca57d9f5edb108ae311d354
    One Nation’s WA election campaign has all the hallmarks of a cynical moneymaking venture rather than a genuine quest for power writes Sydney bureau chief Ross Jones.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wa-wa-land-inside-one-nations-western-australian-campaign,10079
    Big tobacco has exploited a loophole in Australia’s world-first plain-packaging laws, which allowed smokers to ditch the now famous drab packaging.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/just-one-2000-fine-issued-since-tough-new-plain-packaging-laws-introduced-20170301-guoiu4.html
    Women and children crossing together illegally into the United States could be separated by U.S. authorities under a proposal being considered by the Department of Homeland Security, according to three government officials.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/03/04/trump-administration-considering-separating-women-children-at-u/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  4. Section 2 . . .

    PHON has proven to be the government’s most reliable voter in the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hansons-one-nation-emerges-as-governments-most-reliable-senate-voting-partner-20170304-guqo6i.html
    Even before this 54/46 poll Turnbull was going to steer clear of WA after his previous “disastrous” visit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-set-to-steer-clear-of-wa-campaign-after-disastrous-last-visit-20170303-guqmoc.html
    Paul McGeough tells us about the Trump administration’s fixation with Russia that goes back a long way.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/to-russia-with-love-inside-the-trump-administrations-russian-fixation-20170302-guoztl.html
    More than 1000 childcare workers will walk off the job on International Women’s Day on Wednesday to draw attention to the large pay gap between male- and female-dominated professions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/childcare-workers-to-strike-on-wednesday-over-low-pay-20170301-gunu2j.html
    Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ Sunday column.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-lap-up-anything-donald-trump-says-about-us-how-cringeworthy-20170303-guqc6u.html
    Will Scotland actually vote to walk away from Brexit?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/04/hard-brexit-case-scottish-independence-second-referendum
    Rodney Syme says we need a new legal framework for assisted dying.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/new-legal-framework-needed-for-assisted-dying-20170302-gup4ty.html
    Elizabeth Knight writes that the banking industry may ultimately end up paying a hefty price for avoiding a royal commission. Day one of the second of what will be regular Parliamentary-conducted bank inquisitions was not a pleasant affair for National Australia Bank boss, Andrew Thorburn.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-may-rue-not-facing-a-royal-commission-as-they-are-grilled-in-parliamentary-inquiries-20170304-guqpu8.html
    Clive James reviews the new BBC drama SS-GB.
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/mar/04/clive-james-going-deaf-years-hear-ss-gb-television

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