Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A turn for the worse for the Turnbull government in the first Newspoll result for three weeks.

James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% (CORRECTION: make that 34%) with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-33, down from 42-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2: A ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, conducted for The Australia Institute, has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, the Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation. Other findings from the poll relate to company tax and renewable energy. The poll was conducted last Monday from a sample of 863.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest result from Essential Research moves a point in favour of Labor, putting their two-party lead at 53-47. This modest shift obscures some striking movement on the primary vote, with Labor up three points – very unusual from Essential’s normally sedentary fortnightly rolling average – with the Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Nick Xenophon Team all down a point, respectively to 37%, 9%, 9% and 3%. Other findings from the poll are that 44% approve and 35% disapprove of negative gearing; 37% approve and 41% disapprove of capital gains tax reductions on the same of investment properties; and 64% support and 16% oppose a royal commission into banking. Also featured are occasional questions on the attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, which record negligible change since September – the biggest being a five-point drop for Turnbull as “visionary”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,111 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. “While I don’t normally post green stuff, but the person that posted this is correct:”

    Au Pairs aren’t quite the same as internships though are they?

  2. @paaptsef

    Yeah I know it’s like oxymoron type stuff from the Greens but….

    The actual person who posted that in the news paper was someone not Greens.

  3. Nicholas,
    your comments on the post war order and as recorded in Picketty saw a huge improvement in wages and flattening of wealth.
    Disruption doesn’t necessarily favour the poor, certainly those with the most to loose might loose a large amount but often are still ahead, I am thinking of the depression.
    The disruption in process will play out in its own unique way, certainly there is hope.
    Anyway your comments reminded me of this excellent answer on Quora
    Why-did-the-British-people-vote-Winston-Churchill-out-of-office.
    The voters generally, especially the servicemen whose votes were tallied last, considered Churchill an excellent wartime leader but not someone to lead in peace and bring about promised reforms. Due to the war people also had better education and were more aware of economic issues.

  4. Question.
    Will the current investigations into the relationship between Trump and Putin bring down Trump and ultimately Putin?
    1) In breaking news from Rachel Maddow the personal jet of one of Putin’s pet oligarchs, the same guy who purchased a property from Trump at a vastly inflated price (payoff?), has been shown to have landed at the same obscure regional airport as Trump’s jet on several occasions during the election campaign. Was he acting as Putin’s emissary?
    2) Meanwhile, also today, Putin’s only potential (surviving) political opponent is posting detailed information about Putin’s business empire online at huge personal risk.
    3) Much of the information from the dossier from the British intelligence guy, Steele, has been proven accurate.
    Watch this space.

  5. boerwar @ #3006 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 5:55 pm

    Shackleton could just step ashore anywhere along more than 6000 kilometers of Antarctic shoreline today.

    I’ve often thought much the same about James Cook. He tried, he really tried, to get to the Antarctic land mass, and was beaten back by ice every time. Now he’d drift in, drop anchor, send the tars off to pick up a few hundred penguins from the rocks, and make a note in his journal.

    Life is never fair, but Cook had very bad luck with Antarctica.

  6. The disruption that is damaging societies is caused by government policy, not automation, not globally integrated production and distribution systems. Automation, when managed with full employment policies, is good because it increases the amount of socially useful output that can be produced from a given amount of inputs, and it enables people to do work that is more interesting and less dangerous than the tasks taken over by machines. Globally integrated production and distribution, when managed with full employment policies and a focus on societal wellbeing, can be great. The point that centrists miss is that automation and globalisation do not occur in a legal and political vaccuum – the rules under which they occur and the impacts that they engender are shaped by the policy decisions of national governments. For thirty or forty years governments have chosen, for ideological reasons, to target price stability alone – not full employment too. That is the root problem.

  7. Rainbow Labor with Bill and Tanya marching now, weather is good.

    So God didn’t heed Fred Nile’s prayers for rain then.

  8. Rainbow Labor is mainly red.
    Bill looks like a union official, I don’t think he will ever be a gay icon.
    So much glitter and body oil.

  9. Nicholas

    It all goes back to the first Oil Price Shock. After that one and the second it was ALL about “defeating” the rampant inflation that seemed to flow from it. No surprise the powers that be thought that repressing wages increasing at a rate to reflect inflation was the way to go.

  10. This has been a poorly kept secret in NT Labor circles for a while now. I guess they are getting the message out there to test the waters and see the reaction from various parts of the Lingiari electorate. Bowden has all the makings of a strong candidate, with strong local ties.

    It would be nice for Snowden to be known as the father of the house in a Shorten government though:

    “FORMER Richmond AFL player Joel Bowden is shaping as a potential star candidate for the Labor Party at the next federal election.

    Senior Labor figures have spoken to Bowden to gauge his interest in running in the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari.

    The seat is held by Labor veteran Warren Snowdon who has been in the federal Parliament for 28 of the past 30 years.

    But the former minister, who will turn 67 next month, is no certainty to stand at the next election.

    Mr Snowdon told Sky News he would make a decision about his future in the next 12 months.

    “I will need to be thinking about it in the next 12 months, absolutely,” he said.

    “At the moment I’m going to be running again but that may change.”

    Mr Snowdon said he was always looking for a potential successor.

    “There are a number of people who I think could be very good, we have just got to wait and see,” he said.

    Many within Labor consider Bowden an ideal candidate for Lingiari, which takes in all of the Northern Territory except for the greater Darwin region.

    He has appeal in his home town of Alice Springs but is also well known in the NT’s remote communities, where AFL footballers often achieve godlike status.

    Bowden, who works for the AFL in Darwin, met with Bill Shorten during the Opposition Leader’s visit to the Top End for the Bombing of Darwin commemorations last week.

    The two men enjoyed an early morning jog where it’s understood they discussed Bowden’s future interest in running for Labor.”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/alp-eyes-afl-great-bowden-for-lingiari/news-story/1894108eed47f047c9118d4ff915d82f

  11. I have just read Michael Crichton’s ‘State of Fear’ (2004). I thought he was a darling of the scientific community as he often introduced science ideas into his stories (Jurassic Park being one of them).

    I understand the “Jurassic Park” was plagiarised from a short story by Charlie Pellegrino – who is a real scientist. (Palaeontologist, space scientist, archaeologist and more). After 9/11, Charlie was called back from working on a Russian oceanographic voyage to unravel the dynamics of the catastrophic collapse. Pellegrino was really unhappy with Crichton for the lack of acknowledgement. OTOH, Pellegrino does tend to embroider his achievements. I recommend “Ghosts of Vesuvius”.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_R._Pellegrino

  12. desert qlder @ #3077 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 10:36 pm

    This has been a poorly kept secret in NT Labor circles for a while now. I guess they are getting the message out there to test the waters and see the reaction from various parts of the Lingiari electorate. Bowden has all the makings of a strong candidate, with strong local ties.

    So is he an ALP member?
    Has he ever shown any commitment to Labor’s cause?

    I am not a fan of such candidates.

  13. Bemused
    Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 11:14 pm
    So is he an ALP member?
    Has he ever shown any commitment to Labor’s cause?
    I am not a fan of such candidates.

    To tell you the truth I am not a hundred per cent sure. I will try and get some further info on that in coming days.

    I understand the reticence about ‘star candidates’, but this fellow appears to have the right pedigree, and is a local to boot.

    Lots to play out yet, Snowdon might yet decide he wants to be a part of a Shorten-led government. He has told mentioned his respect for Shorten’s leadership in the past.

  14. desert qlder @ #3082 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 11:31 pm

    Bemused
    Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 11:14 pm
    So is he an ALP member?
    Has he ever shown any commitment to Labor’s cause?
    I am not a fan of such candidates.
    To tell you the truth I am not a hundred per cent sure. I will try and get some further info on that in coming days.
    I understand the reticence about ‘star candidates’, but this fellow appears to have the right pedigree, and is a local to boot.
    Lots to play out yet, Snowdon might yet decide he wants to be a part of a Shorten-led government. He has told mentioned his respect for Shorten’s leadership in the past.

    It is more than just reticence, it is closer to abhorrence.

  15. Plenty of long-time ALP members not to be a fan of as well. Joe Bullock springs to mind; Belinda Neal, Craig Thomson, Norm Marlborough, Eddie Obeid…

  16. peter piper @ #3087 Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 11:43 pm

    Plenty of long-time ALP members not to be a fan of as well. Joe Bullock springs to mind; Belinda Neal, Craig Thomson, Norm Marlborough, Eddie Obeid…

    Very true.
    And in most of those cases, if not all, it reflects very poorly on the selection panel. We should be looking hard at them, insisting that they get it right.

  17. Bemused,
    “It is more than just reticence, it is closer to abhorrence.”

    Fair enough. Like I said, let’s see how it plays out.

  18. The Galaxy poll likely understates Labor’s strength in the Metro area. If the swing is 13% Statewide, it’s likely to be 14-15% in the Metro area and the regional towns, such as Geraldton, Busselton & Bunbury and Kalgoorlie. Considering the affluent riverside and coastal areas are likely to not move very much, we should expect to see some very dramatic swings in the outer metro marginals and the SW townships.

    Bemused
    Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 11:37 pm
    Be nice if WA could do that in the next Fed Election.

    Too Right!

    We will be trying to take Pearce, Hasluck, Swan, Stirling and Durack, all of which have been Labor-held in the past.

    For mine, this WA election recalls 1983. We had a very unpopular Federal Liberal Government, a recessed State economy, a corrupt and tired State Liberal Government. WA Labor swept to a big win in WA, which heralded the great win by Bob Hawke the same year.

    We will see similar events developing, commencing here in WA next week!!!

  19. Reading a lot of ‘Both Major Parties Are The Same’ rhetoric from LGBT people online in connection with the Mardi Gras in Sydney. How anyone can think this is baffling, but Shorten and Labor will obviously need to refresh the LGBT communities memory of their stance on the issue in the lead up to the next election. Has Shorten outlined a timeline yet for when he will reintroduce a ME bill in federal parliament once elected? I think it should be one of his first priorities. It’s a relatively simple piece of legislation which will be high impact and make the new government seem to be doing big things quickly and it seems like it will have the support of the overwhelming majority of the labor caucus. I see no reason why it can’t happen as soon as possible.

  20. I had a long and interesting discussion with a rusted on Nationals member today in the SW of WA. There was much we agreed on wrt politics. One extremely interesting thing came up when I asked him about the Nationals ground campaign, he told me they didn’t have one and didn’t need one as everyone knew what the Nationals had done for the community and they knew what was good for them.

    I refrained from pointing out that 9 of the 10 poorest electorates in Australia were held by the Nationals…

  21. US President Donald Trump has accused former president Barack Obama of “wire-tapping” his office phones during the 2016 election campaign.

    Mr Trump made the accusation in a series of tweets from his personal Twitter account on Saturday morning (US time).

    “Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my ‘wires tapped’ in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism!” he tweeted.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-04/trump-accuses-obama-of-office-wire-tap-during-election-campaign/8325386

  22. briefly @ #3092 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 12:05 am

    The Galaxy poll likely understates Labor’s strength in the Metro area. If the swing is 13% Statewide, it’s likely to be 14-15% in the Metro area and the regional towns, such as Geraldton, Busselton & Bunbury and Kalgoorlie. Considering the affluent riverside and coastal areas are likely to not move very much, we should expect to see some very dramatic swings in the outer metro marginals and the SW townships.
    Bemused
    Saturday, March 4, 2017 at 11:37 pm
    Be nice if WA could do that in the next Fed Election.

    Too Right!
    We will be trying to take Pearce, Hasluck, Swan, Stirling and Durack, all of which have been Labor-held in the past.
    For mine, this WA election recalls 1983. We had a very unpopular Federal Liberal Government, a recessed State economy, a corrupt and tired State Liberal Government. WA Labor swept to a big win in WA, which heralded the great win by Bob Hawke the same year.
    We will see similar events developing, commencing here in WA next week!!!

    It will be very interesting to see the developments with Truffles if the Liberals loose badly this Saturday in WA.

    If Howard was campaigning in Jandakot, then Liberal HQ is of the belief the seat is genuinely in play. Should this eventuate then the Liberals will not need much more than one hand to count the seats they retain in the metropolitan area, an unqualified disaster for the WA Liberals and Truffles.

    I very much doubt that it will be a long night in the campaign office in Swan Hills, we’ll be celebrating victory there good and early. The tension will be all around the overall result.

  23. Grimace
    Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 12:24 am

    A significant factor in the coming result will be the Barnett/Hanson deal. This has hurt both sides. The Liberals face being cannibalised by Hanson if they collaborate with her. But if they choose to campaign against each other in future the Right vote will become even more splintered. Meanwhile, Hanson lacks the organisational and financial grunt to stand alone for long. The Liberals have made a terrible mistake…one from which they will not soon recover.

  24. briefly @ #3098 Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 12:42 am

    Grimace
    Sunday, March 5, 2017 at 12:24 am

    A significant factor in the coming result will be the Barnett/Hanson deal. This has hurt both sides. The Liberals face being cannibalised by Hanson if they collaborate with her. But if they choose to campaign against each other in future the Right vote will become even more splintered. Meanwhile, Hanson lacks the organisational and financial grunt to stand alone for long. The Liberals have made a terrible mistake…one from which they will not soon recover.

    Agree it’s a terrible mistake for the Liberals to do a preference deal with PHON. A couple of days ago I recounted a conversation I had with a colleague from my casual job who is a Liberal party member, he said that there was white hot anger in the party with the deal done with PHON.

  25. @ Briefly

    I also feel very strongly that in the medium and long term that absolutely nothing good can come from pandering to fear, racism and bigotry. The Liberals will come to rue the day they did a deal with PHON. No matter what the result in the upcoming state election, the Liberal party will own the crazy that PHON will rain down on WA from the Legislative Council.

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