Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A turn for the worse for the Turnbull government in the first Newspoll result for three weeks.

James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% (CORRECTION: make that 34%) with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-33, down from 42-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.

UPDATE 2: A ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, conducted for The Australia Institute, has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, the Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation. Other findings from the poll relate to company tax and renewable energy. The poll was conducted last Monday from a sample of 863.

UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest result from Essential Research moves a point in favour of Labor, putting their two-party lead at 53-47. This modest shift obscures some striking movement on the primary vote, with Labor up three points – very unusual from Essential’s normally sedentary fortnightly rolling average – with the Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Nick Xenophon Team all down a point, respectively to 37%, 9%, 9% and 3%. Other findings from the poll are that 44% approve and 35% disapprove of negative gearing; 37% approve and 41% disapprove of capital gains tax reductions on the same of investment properties; and 64% support and 16% oppose a royal commission into banking. Also featured are occasional questions on the attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, which record negligible change since September – the biggest being a five-point drop for Turnbull as “visionary”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,111 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 63
1 2 63
  1. 29% voting other than Lib/Lab. Big sign coming through a consistently high other party vote methinks. Carried to an election, this would make a number of seats very interesting for preferences.

  2. Newspoll 55-15 HOLY SH*T Turnbull is in desparate trouble now.

    No wonder Liberal HQ considered him toxic on the campaign trail in WA.

  3. “Davidwh …..Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:00 pm
    Changing leaders won’t save them. Sorting out their internal problems may help a little…..””

    The Libs will not be able to control themselves,especially the right wing fruitcakes that don’t want Turbull as Leader. Dutton on standby perhaps…..

  4. This is big-time buyer’s remorse. Malcolm won’t shift this sentiment. The Libs have been given too many chances and burnt the electorate too many times. The “reset” button just broke.

  5. PHON polling the same as the Greens.

    Di Natale’s leadership in steering the Greens to some new, more mainstream panacea isn’t working.

  6. Attacking Shorten really helped things along, then.

    Perhaps we should collate a list of epithets to abuse Shorten with, and send them to Turnbull for ongoing use.

  7. IoM – Possum Comitatus reckons a huge number of people are parking their votes with ON waiting an excuse to go elsewhere. If Labor looks like pissing it in, will they climb aboard?

  8. Davidwh:

    This will likely be interpreted by Team Abbott as support for him and his repeated intervention.

    I wonder when we’ll see preferred leader polling and 2PP preferred leader polling.

  9. Davidwh, They won’t last that long. I would be surprised if the last six months. I wish I could have a vote to get rid of them now, but I’m a patient bugger so I’ll wait.

  10. “I keenly await Rex’s analytical dissection of these poll results.”

    Easy – It’s Bill Shorten’s fault; anyone else and it would be 60/40.

  11. In what even ‘Harbourside Mansion’ turnbull is in tonight he is no doubt reaching for a stiff brandy.

    And the family cat is keeping well out of the way.

    Yet again, Newspoll quietly does the ‘job’.

    Trunbull’s week of horror has only just started.

  12. Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%

    Assigning causality to any poll result is fraught at the best of times, and with so much going so deservedly wrong for the forces of darkness lately you’d have a hard time picking one thing being more at play than another.

    But, I said at the time the filthy scumbag said it that telling ordinary Aussies to know their place and not go aspiring to harbourside mansions of their own was a massive own goal that would kick a big chunk of his remaining satisfieds over.

    -11 net change on Netsat seems to fit that prediction fairly well.

    And no Rex, don’t bother with the but Bill guff. This is just the same old Abbott crap. The more unpopular you get, just sling shit to cover everyone else in as much as possible and debase politics so much that most people don’t want a bar of any of them. Once these vandals are sent packing Shorten will be able to rebuild confidence in the institutions and his own standing.

  13. Brucken:

    One Nation has this remarkable ability to normally pull voters from Lib/Lab and then return preferences with a only a slight Lib skew. I want to see preferences from WA (and QLD) to see if the Lib-One Nation deal changes this. Then maybe those parking with ON might be able to be read easier giving the TPP more data.

  14. Nice.
    If Labor can get their policies across, then I can see a number of PHON voters coming across.
    Of the issues since last poll, I think penalty rates and renewables were more significant than ‘the sniper’.
    I think no one was surprised by Abbott the only question was timing.

  15. Good evening all,

    Good result. Penalty rates campaign to heat up this week. Shorten has written to Turnbull calling on him to join with labor to introduce legislation to ensure the cuts do not happen. Full on this week.

    As well, looks like ON will not support the labor legislation. Interesting how that goes down with ON supporters.

    Anyway, interesting times ahead.

    Cheers and a great night to all

  16. AntonbrucknerII

    I read some commentary on Friday i think that said Abbott’s has form for chucking hand grenades when he knows Newspoll is about to go to work.

  17. Ratsak – Malcolm’s bomb throwing probably took a bit of time to flow through because some people probably thought Malcolm was showing a few signs of life. But then he just went back to drift and they realised he was just a nasty drongo.

  18. One last comment for the night.

    Once again the CPG and others have shown how really tuned in they are to the real issues.

    Good night all.

  19. And here was me thinking that perhaps the coalition had clawed back a percent or so on the back the changes to the pollies gold card entitlements.


  20. Remember I said a while back that Abbott only had a short window of opportunity to ride the Trump train before it derailed.

    Thursday last was a clear strike.

    It might be completely deluded. But you never know. A lot of Libs really are nutjobs, and a lot of them are looking at these polls and thinking maybe Abbott can capture back the voters lost to PHON (because Turnbull sure as shit never will). We’ve already had the despair in the Libs out itself in public with the likes of Freedom Boy confessing he thinks they’re toast at the next election. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

    But even if he’s turned so many of his party so thoroughly against him that they’d rather go for Dutton Tony will be satisfied. First the vengeance, then worry about the consequences.

  21. Surely the Abbott outburst was timed to have just this impact on Newspoll. Any sensible reading has to factor in that this controversy was uppermost in the minds of many when they were polled. Plain fact: there is no alternative to Turnbull ready to step up as leader.

  22. If only trunbull would do a few more *resets* like this. He is really on the comeback trail – not.

    And abbott stepping on a landmine he tried to set himself.

    Whats next – Its still only Sunday night.

  23. Plain fact 2: there was no alternative to Abbott ready to step up as leader.
    Plain fact 3: there was no alternative to Turnbull ready to step up as leader back in 09.

Comments Page 1 of 63
1 2 63

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *