James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% (CORRECTION: make that 34%) with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-33, down from 42-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.
UPDATE 2: A ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, conducted for The Australia Institute, has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, the Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation. Other findings from the poll relate to company tax and renewable energy. The poll was conducted last Monday from a sample of 863.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest result from Essential Research moves a point in favour of Labor, putting their two-party lead at 53-47. This modest shift obscures some striking movement on the primary vote, with Labor up three points – very unusual from Essential’s normally sedentary fortnightly rolling average – with the Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Nick Xenophon Team all down a point, respectively to 37%, 9%, 9% and 3%. Other findings from the poll are that 44% approve and 35% disapprove of negative gearing; 37% approve and 41% disapprove of capital gains tax reductions on the same of investment properties; and 64% support and 16% oppose a royal commission into banking. Also featured are occasional questions on the attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, which record negligible change since September – the biggest being a five-point drop for Turnbull as “visionary”.
“Mr Potato Head, you are wanted on the phone in the foyer”
“If Mr Potato Head is in the building, you have a phonecall.”
I had faith in the Australian people’s BS detectors and they are red-lining to Eleventy at the moment.
I am thinking that zoomster’s permeate theory is working here and we are seeing the cumulative result of the Centrelink fiasco; ignoring Climate Change through the hottest Summer on record, then classlessly bringing a lump of nascent CO2 into parliament hubris; Joyce & Sukkar’s intervention in the Housing Affordability crisis, otherwise known as, suck your way up the greasy Liberal and National totem pole like us and you’ll get a cushy job and a nice house solution; the Pensioners cuts (a slow burn so I am being told); and the ‘Only I May Aspire to a Harbourside Mansion, Know Your Place, William! Speech.
It’s like a slow-burn shit sandwich that the Coalition have been fed tonight with Newspoll. The electorate had a bit of constipation as they couldn’t quite expel Malcolm Turnbull, they liked him in a fond sort of Neo-Menzian way which they hankered after post John Howard, so that entree to the electorate floated around in the guts of the electorate and they thought they had eaten a good meal until they realised his government wanted to turn them into beggars and had fed them the policy equivalent of a dodgy curry and so through the guts of the beggars he created he has gone and now has been excreted and they have served him back to himself in that sandwich.
We are at the 2017 equivalent of the point in 2007 when Alexander Downer tapped John Howard on the shoulder, and was sent home with a flea in his ear.
Will Turnbull have the same desire to keep hold of his Precious?
Oh there are phone calls being made right now.
They might just be of the “what the fuck are we gonna do?” variety, but that’s how the ends of leaderships start.
Plain fact 4: Newspoll continues to do its job
🙂
ides of march @ #15 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:07 pm
Yep. Here it is again:
Still in the race –
So why is Essential not favoring ALP?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-coalition-loses-more-ground-amid-tensions-between-pm-and-tony-abbott/news-story/b663ad837c3a47bac74dde409b21ee3a
Newspoll: Coalition loses more ground amid tensions between PM and Tony Abbott
The Australian 10:24PM February 26, 2017
David Crowe Political correspondent Canberra
The Coalition has lost more ground in the latest Newspoll amid tensions between Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott, with the government trailing Labor by 45 to 55 per cent in two-party terms.
Labor has extended its commanding lead since the resumption of parliament early this month, when the first Newspoll of the year showed the government was behind by 46 to 54 per cent in two party terms.
The Coalition’s primary vote has fallen from 35 per cent to 34 per cent, taking it to a result that is five percentage points points lower than it experienced in the weeks before Mr Turnbull toppled Mr Abbott as prime minister in September 2015.
The latest Newspoll, to be published in The Australian on Monday, shows another gain for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which has more than doubled its primary vote since last November.
One Nation’s primary vote has risen to 10 per cent in the latest poll, up from 8 per cent in the survey taken three weeks ago and compared to just 4 per cent in the first week of November, when the election of Donald Trump sparked a global debate over conservative values.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.
…If you have a Subscription. 😡
And our pathetic MSM thought Turnbull attack on Shorten a triumph
Dan
“Unknown – pre-budget 2017 ”
Was me, have never been @ after you’ve posted the list.
Interesting the article in Australian clarifies why Newspoll didn’t poll last week but this week. Obviously they didn’t want to be seen colluding with Abbott.
Rat, from reading the reader letters and comments in the GG, there is no shortage of people who think Abbott is the PM we need, PHON on the right only makes them surer.
VP
Updated accordingly. 😉
And let me just tell you that Labor aren’t resting on their laurels either. I have been going to many meetings lately as we try to take back the Councils that the NSW State government’s attempted gerrymander, otherwise known as’the Merge’, has created.
We are committed to winning the hard way. By taking nothing for granted, wearing out the shoe leather, expending every last erg of energy and proving to people just how venal the Liberals are and that they shouldn’t be let anywhere near the levers of power for a generation and definitely not until they get some policies that exert financial pain where it is needed most, not direct their policies and pain at those who deserve it least!
dave:
Yep, Alias is kind of pathetic isn’t he?
Ar qn time Malcolm will either spontaneously combust or go after shorty with nunchucks
So, maybe that chart
https://mobile.twitter.com/IanJKelly/status/835772410120941569
Was accurate.
dan gulberry @ #65 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:44 pm
cheers
The “Liberals” don’t tolerate losers.
PM Dutton soon. House only sits this week, Makcolm coukd well go next week when the Senate sits next week.
Check out the comments over at the Government Gazette, delusional is not a strong enough word.
confessions @ #67 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:46 pm
Fess –
He totally over egged it all – for example –
Possum on the Newspoll
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/835813584550572032
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
This is noisy bullshit numbers, as noisy as bullshit commentators declaring Turnbull’s attacks on Shorten were game changes
10:27 PM – 26 Feb 2017
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/835814731000639488
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Most political commentary on this stuff could be replaced by a journo bot with a Markov process fed with Newspoll numbers.
10:32 PM – 26 Feb 2017
I’ll tell you one thing for free, and it won’t please the bleeding hearts, but the main reason the PHON vote is so strong is because people really do want a pause to Muslim immigration.
And I don’t think it’s because they inherently dislike them, but rather they want the Islamic Extremists put back in their box, wiped off the face of the earth, and to disabuse themselves of any ideas that they can come into the West and throw their weight around.
Once that’s sorted, people will stop being so concerned about them.
antonbruckner11 @ #68 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:47 pm
Ahh.
His Central Park apartment must beckon as the northern spring is in sight – or Tuscany.
He is stuck with Big George, Barnaby and all the others wanting to be the first to plunge a knife in his back.
dan gulberry @ #65 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:44 pm
Some strange entries, such as this one.
Albo – 12 months time
So Albo can never win as his prediction is always 12 months in the future.
C@tmomma – I think that’s part of it, especially in Sydney, but it seems to be a catch all protest vote party at the moment, their actual policies are often beside the point.
Well that’s a genuine wow! I was actually expecting a slight move to the dark side. Usually polls lag events, so I suspect it is too early to have seen much of a flow on from the penalty rates decision, and Abbott’s intervention did not become widely known until Friday, when Newspoll was already in the field. Lovely to think that this could get worse!
I’m not overly worried by Shorten’s netsat; there’s been a lot of mud thrown around, and I see this as similar to the lead up to 2013, when Abbott’s netsats were down, but it wasn’t preventing people from stating they would vote Liberal. Were things tight, then sure, Shorten’s numbers could be a problem, but right now they are nothing to worry about.
Anton: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LykgXSrAvgc
The Coalition need to read this article and reflect on why they are doing so badly:
http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/todays-housing-crisis-is-worse-than-the-17pc-home-loans-of-the-1980s-20170224-gukd59.html
C@Tmomma…”I’ll tell you one thing for free, and it won’t please the bleeding hearts, but the main reason the PHON vote is so strong is because people really do want a pause to Muslim immigration.”………
And as sad as that statement may seem to some , it is correct. My electorate is Lindsay, and this sentiment is commonplace among people. Hanson knows this and will try and exploit it.
I think the bottom line as a citizen is to just go about your everyday life giving respect to whoever you come into contact with.
Leroy Lynch,
I think that’s part of it, especially in Sydney, but it seems to be a catch all protest vote party at the moment, their actual policies are often beside the point.
Yes. I also think the way the Liberals are going about addressing the issue is clunky. So people are turning to whoever correctly articulates their angst.
However, there is no easy solution but still a major party leader has to correctly identify the problem, otherwise these people will keep drifting towards the party that has.
I actually think even moderate Muslims will support the issue of Extremism in their religion being addressed. Or so polling of them that I have seen seems to suggest.
I think the coalition will have another go at Shorten this week.
All they have is his low PPM figures, and feel that if they can destabilize him and perhaps force a leadership change that they might have a chance.
Greg McAuliffe,
Sad but true.
The MSM will blame Abbott for this result. We will see this immediately tomorrow morning when Fran Kelly and some bosom buddy will say Turnbull will be looking for a reset in Parliament this week and put Abbott’s outburst behim him.
I once thought that the media darlings Turnbull successfully cultivated would eventually see the forest for the trees. But now I realise they will go down with him, all the way.
Possum responds to David’s comment
https://twitter.com/CroweDM/status/835821235430797313
David Crowe @CroweDM
Pauline Hanson has backed every move by Donald Trump since November. One Nation primary was 4% then, 10% now. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-coalition-loses-more-ground-amid-tensions-between-pm-and-tony-abbott/news-story/b663ad837c3a47bac74dde409b21ee3a
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/835825322549399552
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
In contrast, our latest research of 5400 sample with 18 focus groups shows that Trump is actually a weakness to Hanson. Why I need ti write
11:14 PM – 26 Feb 2017
https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/835825789576716289
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Political commentary in this country is not as partisan as the US, but massively more disconnected from the broader mass population
11:16 PM – 26 Feb 2017
Possum earlier said he intends to write a column “Confessions of a Political Pollster (why everything you think you know about politics is probably bullshit).” I look forward to it.
When Trump goes down for being a traitor. Hanson is going to look like an absolute idiot for backing himall the way. couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch
For those who want to read Poss’s tweets firsthand, here’s the link:
https://twitter.com/pollytics
There is no possible spin on a Newspoll 55-45. It’s a death rattle.
AS TONY GRIEG WOULD SAY
“TORNBORLL IS FORKED!”
The comments on the Australian website with the article are hilarious. 🙂
Poor Malcolm.His attack on Shorten that the MSM were fawning over show how out of touch they really are with the public.They are truly journalistic lightweights with a capital “L”. I said in earlier posts I was looking forward to 55-45 and then 56-44 and slowly but surely its getting there.
Meanwhile, in NSW: Westconnex considers cheaper option of tunnelling next to inner city high-school in Leichhardt.
The more expensive option is the site of a Dan Murphy’s.
The most ridiculous aspect of this is that the bottle shop only opened late last year.
Muppetry all ’round.
13 April 2019 not looking good you would think; but what is the alternative?
What ripper numbers!
Cake for everybody!
Even taking into account that we are possibly two years away from an election and Black Swan events Turnbull and the Libs are in diabolical trouble. At 55-45 it appears the electorate is just not listening to them and it will be almost impossible for them to change it similarly to the Gillard government 2012/13.
Even more of a problem is that their disunity is about policy as well as personality. Labor at least could agree about policy. It seems that the Liberal broad church is in the words of the Bible is a house divided against itself and therefore cannot stand.
Malcolm is Captain Terminal Mark II. Let the conservative bastards completely implode with infighting until their political death. Great to watch.
The RWNJs are going to terminate themselves into oblivion.The more south the polls go, the more they shift to the looney right.They cant see that the public do not want their type of conservatism.They think the public want even more extreme right wing policies and that is going to win them their lost votes back.They are complete and utter fucking idiots bordering on the lunacy of Trump.
2 weeks to go before an expected landslide in WA.
Last time there was a lowly byelection over here they deposed stuntboy.
His numbers were better than these.
Let them eat cake!