James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% (CORRECTION: make that 34%) with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-33, down from 42-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.
UPDATE 2: A ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, conducted for The Australia Institute, has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, the Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation. Other findings from the poll relate to company tax and renewable energy. The poll was conducted last Monday from a sample of 863.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest result from Essential Research moves a point in favour of Labor, putting their two-party lead at 53-47. This modest shift obscures some striking movement on the primary vote, with Labor up three points – very unusual from Essential’s normally sedentary fortnightly rolling average – with the Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Nick Xenophon Team all down a point, respectively to 37%, 9%, 9% and 3%. Other findings from the poll are that 44% approve and 35% disapprove of negative gearing; 37% approve and 41% disapprove of capital gains tax reductions on the same of investment properties; and 64% support and 16% oppose a royal commission into banking. Also featured are occasional questions on the attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, which record negligible change since September – the biggest being a five-point drop for Turnbull as “visionary”.
Possum also tweeted https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/835828327961124864:
He then included the following (it was an image so I apologise for any transcription errors):
I think a lot of PHON’s supporters identify with an image they have of her (battler, not PC, says what she things, etc). If they knew and understood her policies they might realise she’s not necessarily one of them.
The stupidest right wing lunatics on TV are those 3 fuckwits Rowan Dean,Mark Latham and Ross Cameron on that Sky Outsiders program.Hard to believe Latham is as bad as the other 2. Im a Labor supporter but Im glad that that fuckwit never ran this country.
Isn’t it fairly typical that the incumbent always leads on PPM?
Not when the incumbent has a net approval of minus 30%.
There is so much crap going on it’s difficult to decipher. Pity we no longer have the odd Morgan, who’s wild oscillations were useful for gauging sentiment on issues if nothing else.
Essential has a tendency to get crap samples that favour the L-NP. They appear to have got one 2 weeks ago. It’s about to wash out so we shall see. The Essential sample comes from a panel of 100,000, from which they randomly invite 7,000-8,000 to get a typical response of 1,000. The panel was built off-line to avoid “self selection”, but the invitation process still has a self selection element.
Perhaps the MSM getting all excited about Mal going the biffo a few weeks back actually did create some temporary hope for the faithful? Or at least enough to motivate more than the usual number of L-NP supporters to respond to the Essential invitation.
And perhaps Abbott wrecked all that on Thursday night? While there is usually a lag that requires a bit of creative rationalisation to interpret polls (not to mention MOE), the reaction to leadership tensions is usually hard and fast. It was during the ALP years anyway.
In my view there has been nothing good for the government in the past few weeks apart from the Joko Widodo visit, which they played down.
While some Libs and certainly the ever hopeful press gang may have liked Turnbull going the biff, I doubt it was a good long term move. Images of Turnbull “being tough” come with a very unattractive curled lip, which reminds me of photo’s of when he was the young, arrogant, self satisfied wanker in pin stripes.
The block of coal in parliament was out of touch. The attempt to smear Shorten with the penalty rates decision was a valiant attempt, but contradicts years of painting him as a Union stooge.
Abbott was gold for the ALP (stop picking on him). Whether he is responsible for this poll result is hard to gauge, because the government is up to it’s neck in good reasons for bad polling. This poll will encourage him, because popularity is not his style. He wins by dragging everything down.
If they depose Turnbull, which is looking increasingly likely, they’re going to try to hold on for as long as possible to the current parliament. They know any new election will decimate them. Therefore their choices are stark. Put Abbott back. Put in Morrison or Dutton. If they depose Turnbull he might go rogue, staying on & sitting as an independent not guaranteeing supply or worse, not showing up for votes. He’ll leave at the next election. They’ll be on a knife edge & anything could bring down their house of cards.
Summary: No Change. Turnbull & the LNP are stuck with each other. They need his vote in the chamber.
The PPM toward Shorten is the biggest movement in this poll. Well outside MOE.
Not as far outside the MoE as the 11% drop in Turnbull’s net approval. That’s the benchmark Shorten is being measured against in his “improved” PPM.
Forgot to add Brizoz, Essential is favouring the ALP (but I know what you meant).
WB,
That’s where “lags”, and creative interpretation, and “trends” come in : ) A few more salvo’s from Abbott, or just more of the same punch drunk staggering around, and Shorten will get his neck in front.
William. Maybe but I don’t think any political leader would get a good approval in today’s climate. Maybe we now hate all our political leaders consistently
When 29% of the population are voting “other” that’s not a good base upon which to build a net-sat. Turnbull’s original approval was an outlier. He was seen as the Messiah who would finally give us a good political leader. When he crashed he took everyone’s illusions with him.
Shorten’s figures are poor, how much of that is TURC, and other bad publicity, and is redeemable and how much is the fact that some people just do not like him we don’t know.
My anecdotal evidence is that there are people who think he doesn’t stand for anything and will flip flop, not so much active dislike but dissatisfaction.
The campaigning last election with the NG and capital gains tax policies were a plus.
‘we don’t know.’
I suppose Possum with his 18 focus groups knows the qualitative behind Shortens PPM figures.
RN quote
TA had to get dirty because his supporters were drifting away. Only Abetz left.
This image of a young Tony Abbott doing the rounds on the internet is a cracker
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5k4ACnUYAAjWf1?format=jpg&name=large
True or not, The Lying Friar, the MonkeyPod, PotatoHead and the PHON fellow travellers in the Nats will be pushing themselves into camera shot over the next 2 sitting weeks. And Malcolm, like his earlier incarnation Billy Mcmahon, is like a rabbit in the headlights.
Sprocket_
Wow! The same ‘evil’ look he still presents. Not an attractive child. Yet he apparently had several of his parents friends (and priests) fawning over him.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/childrens-futures-sacrificed-for-positive-school-pr-secret-teacher-speaks-out-20170220-gugs56.html
phoenixRED
Trump Rocked By New Scandal As Father Of Navy Seal Killed In Yemen Wants Investigation
The father of the Navy Seal who was killed in Yemen is demanding a probe into whether President Trump put together the mission properly.
Lost in the fog of Trump’s war with the press, and the looming Russia scandal is the reporting that the President badly bungled the raid in Yemen. It has been reported that Trump moved forward on the operation without sufficient intelligence, and the resulting raid was a disaster that left Ryan Owens and 28 civilians dead.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/26/trump-rocked-scandal-father-navy-seal-killed-yemen-investigation.html
phoenixRED
Donald Trump’s Attacks On The New York Times Have Hilariously Backfired
Instead of driving the newspaper out of business with his attacks, President Trump has caused subscriptions to go wild every time he tweets about the paper, which means that his attacks have the opposite effect from what the President intended.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/26/donald-trumps-attacks-york-times-hilariously-backfired.html
Trump Is Selina Meyer As White House Leaks Details Of Investigation Into Leaks
The Trump White House is like HBO’s Veep come to life in the political world as the White House managed to leak details of their own investigation into leaks.
The leaks are an endless circle that is consuming his presidency. The more leaks come out, the more obsessed Trump becomes.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/26/trump-selina-meyer-white-house-leaks-details-investigation-leaks.html
ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson for the Australia Institute has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation.
http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/TAI%20-%2020%20February%202017%20-%20Dawson%20-%20RELEASE.pdf
I can’t see that extra taxes on sugar will get a guernsey.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-27/lnp-and-one-nation-tie-in-polls-in-qld-seat-of-dawson/8304818
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/penalty-rate-cuts-to-hasten-mass-casualisation-of-australian-workforce-report-20170226-gullsa
peebee @ #347 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 9:52 pm
What happens when you load it and start it up for the first time is that at first all you get is an app which gives altitude and lat/long.
Then, if you are within range of a tower, it asks if you want the local map.
I set the parameters as wide as I could, and the map downloaded very quickly. When I went to the coast, where I got to a part where the original map did not extend, I downloaded the next section, and so on.
But once it is downloaded it is available even when you are out of range. I was going to fork out for the 1:25000 but I find that this is pretty much all I need for bushwalking, and it occupies very little space on the memory of the device.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Looks like Georgie Porgie will have to start making nice to Labor and Pauline and her voters! It might take the sort of political gymnastics he is not capable of!
vogon poet @ #311 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:18 pm
Me too. About the same price as the supermarkets, except that I am buying much larger quantities at a time. The local beekeeper sells through a seed merchant here in Armidale.
That would be a tough preference choice for a Dawson Labor voter.
Has anyone listened to Fran Kelly this morning?
Of course, by the time of the next election, George Christensen and the One Nation candidate may be one and the same.
ides of march @ #32 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 10:13 pm
That’s a bright idea, thank you.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Should be quite a party room meeting tomorrow morning!
Michelle Grattan writes on the NewsPoll result saying Abbott will cop much blame for the result but the worsening in the Prime Minister’s personal numbers also suggests his recent more aggressive performance hasn’t impressed the public as much as it did his colleagues. She also refers to a letter Shorten wrote yesterday to Turnbull exhorting him to intervene in the penalty rates decision.
https://theconversation.com/coalition-trails-45-55-and-turnbulls-ratings-sink-in-newspoll-73666
The SMH editorial names the cast for a film on Australian politics as it previews our chances in the Oscars.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/and-the-oscar-goes-to–turnbull-and-abbott-20170223-guk92s.html
Here’s Urban Wronski’s latest.
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/02/26/turnbull-embraces-netanyahu-lets-everything-else-go-to-hell/
Jess Irvine dumps on “worthless” life insurance products.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/many-of-us-dont-even-know-we-have-life-insurance-often-its-worthless-20170224-gul0ow.html
Despite not having to deal with a global recession, the Coalition have still managed to double the debt writes Alan Austin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalition-swiftly-doubles-labors-debt–with-no-excuse,10059
Mark Kenny wonders when Abbott’s next grenade will be lobbed.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-holds-his-nerve-as-liberals-sweat-on-tony-abbotts-next-grenade-20170226-gullkg.html
David Crowe in The Australian says that the Liberal civil war will end in burial rites. Google.
/national-affairs/opinion/newspoll-liberal-civil-war-will-end-in-burial-rites/news-story/8e999139177500a52c235f5f1cbaece5
Peta Credlin says the government is ” on life support”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-government-on-life-support-tony-abbott-confidante-declares-20170226-guln53.html
“Crankypants former Prime Minotaur Tony Abbott is throwing stones — and who can blame him” says an article in The Independent Australia.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/stony-abbott-spits-the-dummy-its-still-my-party-and-ill-cry-if-i-want-to,10060
Andrew Bolt says Turnbull is doomed! And this would have been written before NewsPoll came out. Google.
/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/sad-truth-is-that-malcolm-turnbull-is-doomed-and-savaging-of-tony-abbott-shows-it/news-story/ff38497eb36de58de25fd9b063dbf4d8
Section 2 . . .
Peter van Onselen has the goss on how the “deplorables” within the Coalition tried to bring Turnbull undone. Google.
/national-affairs/liberal-deplorables-tried-to-bring-malcolm-turnbull-undone/news-story/0617055eff06b11f4f9a7b3847a05218
The Turnbull government’s proposed company tax cut would drop national income for years before it boosted it and would never be self-funding, a new analysis from the Grattan Institute has found. Peter Martin comments.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cut-company-tax-and-you-cut-national-income-says-grattan-institute-20170226-gulo41.html
As the government takes the long-handle to penalty rates, family benefits and climate-change funding – while dangling a $50 billion package of tax cuts in the direction of its big business party donors – it is worth bearing in mind that a third of Australia’s biggest companies pay zero tax writes Michael West.
http://www.michaelwest.com.au/corporate-tax-reform-stalled-while-government-axes-welfare/
Trump’s Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders refused to keep the President’s promise that people won’t lose their health care with the Republican Obamacare replacement during an interview on ABC’s This Week.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/26/trump-white-house-refuses-promise-people-lose-heath-care-obamacare-repeal.html
The resumption of properties for WestConnex is building up a head of steam again.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/minister-vows-to-review-westconnex-property-valuation-20170226-gulkpg.html
More from David Wroe on Australia’s involvement in the second Iraq war. Howard got walked all over by Bush.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-wanted-bigger-united-nations-role-in-postsaddam-iraq-declassified-report-reveals-20170224-gukyes.html
“When we look at all the crazy behaviour in the United States, we comfort ourselves that it couldn’t happen here. Well, last week we took another step in that direction”. Ross Gittins is not impressed with the penalty rates decision and sees it as a further move in the wrong direction for equality.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cut-in-penalty-rates-another-win-for-bizonomics-20170226-gulhuo.html
Cuts to penalty rates will hasten the “mass casualisation” of Australia’s workforce according to a report from the McKell Institute writes Adam Gartrell.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/penalty-rate-cuts-to-hasten-mass-casualisation-of-australian-workforce-report-20170226-gullsa.html
Labor has vowed to fight the Fair Work Commission’s ruling to cut Sunday penalty rates, with legislation to be put to Parliament on Monday.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/02/27/labor-moves-stop-penalty-rate-cuts/
A brilliant article from Greg Jericho on the penalty rates decision. I suspect some of his thoughts will come out in QT today.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/feb/26/sundays-arent-so-special-according-to-the-fair-work-commission
Section 3 . . .
Peter Martin examines a proposal to beef up the Medicare levy arrangements.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/all-high-earners-to-pay-medicare-levy-surcharge-under-budget-proposal-20170226-gull01.html
Huge increases in utility prices are adding to the pressure on Australia’s major supermarket chains as they seek to balance rising power, water and wages bills with sagging profitability.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/keeping-the-lights-on-ranks-among-retails-top-challenges-20170221-guht9s.html
Household rubbish from across Adelaide’s east and inner south would be converted to electricity under a new plan that may lead to an alternative, reliable energy option for SA. Google.
/messenger/east-hills/wastetoenergy-plant-proposed-for-adelaide-to-create-new-electricity-source/news-story/7717aca50663c9c3d4d99c833b0faab5
This Dane tells us to wake up to ourselves with regard to renewables.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/my-small-danish-island-samso-is-now-a-worldleading-green-energy-community-yours-can-be-too-20170226-gulh0h.html
The Turnbull government is launching a major crackdown on “shonks and rorters” in the family day care sector, with new measures designed to save taxpayers up to $250 million. That’s good, but it’s not only in this industry that shonks and spivs are operating.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hotbed-of-shonks-turnbull-launches-crackdown-on-dodgy-family-daycare-20170226-gulhcb.html
Adele Ferguson writes about the scourge of Phoenix trading and how at last something might be done about it. Google.
/business/legal/scrutiny-of-phoenix-trading-intensifies-20170226-gulhnj
Paul McGeough writes that while the Nixon administration took more than three years to get to Watergate, it seems that after just weeks in office, Donald Trump is already on the slippery slope. Trump has Russiagate.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/donald-trump-on-a-slippery-slope-over-russiagate-coverup-20170225-gulfuk.html
The Huffington Post has identified 100 lies in the first 36 days of the trump presidency.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/02/26/the-first-100-lies-the-trump-teams-flurry-of-falsehoods/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Why are there so few female barristers?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/female-barristers-are-barely-seen-and-rarely-heard-in-our-high-court-20170224-gukfec.html
Queensland MPs have a rare opportunity to move forward in a way that respects women as decision makers and ensures their reproductive freedom – but will they? Recent polling shows 80% support for changing the laws from the current out of date position.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/queensland-mps-must-seize-the-moment-on-abortion-20170226-guls2w.html
With Bill’s approval ratings as low as they are, could this be as a result of the shit they tried to heap on him in the RC?
Some shit will always stick. It will take a Labor Party win to wash more off.
Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner
Meanwhile One Nation is polling 30% in George Christensen’s seat! Google.
/news/politics/one-nation-polling-30pc-in-george-christensens-seat-20170223-gujjgy
Dutton has gone right over the top with the handling of applications for protection by asylum seekers.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/draconian-and-dangerous-despair-over-fresh-crackdown-on-asylum-seekers-20170223-guk3of.html
Dutton already has Trump-like powers to ban Muslims.
https://newmatilda.com/2017/02/26/explainer-why-peter-dutton-already-has-the-power-to-enforce-a-trump-muslim-ban/
Cathy Wilcox with another one on penalty rates.
Have a look at Cathy’s depiction of Malcolm Roberts!
David Rowe returns to the Turnbull bedroom.
Bill Leak does his masters’ bidding putting Turnbull on the skids.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/05226b5c80382948777fac577addf039
Liberal MPs ‘the Deplorables’ plot to oust Turnbull, get Abbott back
MALCOLM Turnbull has been actively undermined by a section of his own party calling themselves ‘the deplorables’ who have been meeting semi-regularly to plot a strategy to get Tony Abbott back into cabinet.
The group of more than a dozen conservative MPs held phone hook-ups and meetings at Parliament House to discuss the strategy.
The Australian reports the former Prime Minister and Senator Eric Abetz co-ordinated the meetings via calendar invites and group texts.
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/liberal-mps-the-deplorables-plot-to-oust-turnbull-get-abbott-back/news-story/319859602d92449f298b4c34894ef5e9
Morning all. This poll could be Turnbull’s tombstone. WA will be lost (badly) before there is another. Shorten’s numbers are not great either. I think trying to blame them on the RC is a reach so far later. Bill has always been a backroom operator, and that is what rally sticks. Albo for PM? Its time.
For thise who know, the NBN website says our street will eventually get Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC). What speed is that?
PhoenixRED
I noticed that amongst the deplorables were Michael “get yourself a high paying job” Sukar and Andrew FIGJAM Hastie.
I doubt that they had the good of the natio in their minds.
Socrates
Albo not a backroom operator, when he quietly made his room available for the plotters’ meetings? Pull the other one.
Thanks BK, great job.
In the ppm graph in the Australian,
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/newspoll-liberal-civil-war-will-end-in-burial-rites/news-story/8e999139177500a52c235f5f1cbaece5
Shorten has had a steady (low) rating since late September last year, and Turnbull’s ratings have been coming down to meet Shorten’s.
I have no idea what that implies in the reasons voters have for answering pollster’s questions in that way.
Rather than getting in a knife-edge tussle with PHON (Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively), George Christensen might decide to go over to PHON and make his seat a cert.
lizzie Monday, February 27, 2017 at 7:59 am
PhoenixRED
I noticed that amongst the deplorables were Michael “get yourself a high paying job” Sukar and Andrew FIGJAM Hastie.
I doubt that they had the good of the natio in their minds.
************************************
The Dirty Dozen +
Right – so the minor bump we saw in the Coalition’s figures (assuming Newspoll is reading the pulse of the nation correctly) – was due to Malcolm inadvertently standing up to Trump (it wasn’t intentional, Malcolm just thought he was ticking an item off the shopping list).
‘ This is done in a very simple way. Students at the bottom end of the cohort are pressured to stop pursuing an ATAR and instead do unscored VCE subjects. This means that the school’s average study score improves.’
This is absolutely nothing new. It happened under the HSC (there was an option to do a ‘soft’ version of English, for example, which allowed a student to get their HSC but did not give them a University entrance score) and it was well known that private schools culled students at Year 11.
Morning bludgers
Lets see
The Centrelink debacle
The exhorbitant cost of housing
the casualisation of the workforce
Cuts to penalty rates
The continued push to cut company tax.
And what did the CPG think was going to reset Turnbull? An all out attack on Shortened. *Facepalm*
The CPG were right after all. Turnbulls theatrics in parliament recently has indeed been his turning point.
Socrates, I have a HFC cable to my house. I currently get 135mbps upload for $60 per month from Telstra.
Recently NBN Co contacted me to let me know the NBN is now available and contact ISPs to get a service. I have a choice of three speeds 25mbps ($79 per month), 50mbps (didn’t check price) and 100mbps ($109). I should add those speeds are ‘up to’, so I can expect less at times. These speeds are mandated by NBN Co.
The service will run through my existing HFC cable.
Can you see why I am pissed off? Pricks.
Oh and who can forget the stunt in parliament to push coal during a bloody heatwave!!