James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% (CORRECTION: make that 34%) with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 40-33, down from 42-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.
UPDATE 2: A ReachTEL poll of George Christensen’s seat of Dawson, conducted for The Australia Institute, has Christensen neck and neck with One Nation, at 30.4% and 30.0% respectively, with Labor on 25.2%, the Greens on 2.6% and 7.4% undecided. A two-party split of 57.7-42.3 on a LNP-versus-Labor basis is provided, but on those numbers it would be Labor preferences deciding the result between Christensen and One Nation. Other findings from the poll relate to company tax and renewable energy. The poll was conducted last Monday from a sample of 863.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): The latest result from Essential Research moves a point in favour of Labor, putting their two-party lead at 53-47. This modest shift obscures some striking movement on the primary vote, with Labor up three points – very unusual from Essential’s normally sedentary fortnightly rolling average – with the Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Nick Xenophon Team all down a point, respectively to 37%, 9%, 9% and 3%. Other findings from the poll are that 44% approve and 35% disapprove of negative gearing; 37% approve and 41% disapprove of capital gains tax reductions on the same of investment properties; and 64% support and 16% oppose a royal commission into banking. Also featured are occasional questions on the attributes of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, which record negligible change since September – the biggest being a five-point drop for Turnbull as “visionary”.
Lizzie,
Albo not a backroom operator, when he quietly made his room available for the plotters’ meetings? Pull the other one.
Exactly.
I love how Soc can see Albo’s halo all the way from Adelaide. 😉
What he can’t see is Albo’s long history as the Numbers Man for the Left in NSW. Which history involves him with a guy called Ian McDonald. The same guy who is in court right now being prosecuted for Official Corruption wrt sweet and lucrative Coal Mining deals for his mates. Albo did the numbers to get McDonald into the NSW Upper House.
As a backroom operator he well and truly gives Bill a run for his money.
Of course Albo didn’t know that McDonald would turn out to be a lackwit, but it sure doesn’t look good on Albo’s CV. All of this would certainly be in any Dirt File the Libs had on him.
Nice guy, shame about his history.
socrates @ #139 Monday, February 27, 2017 at 7:53 am
Means they’re going to use the existing overhead Telstra cable with {maybe} some improvements in the back end of the network. I suspect I’ll be in the same category, but I’m actually attached to the matching Optus cable in our street. What’s the bet I’ll get charged to connect the Telstra cable?
Not potato head. Oh please no. We can’t go from a banker to a wa&$er for a PM.
Lizzie
I never said Albo wasn’t. But Bill is perceived as one, and that damages him. The failed stunt with a rep from Australia’s worst union last week would not have helped Bill’s numbers either. Anyway Turnbull will not last a month on these numbers. Have a good day all.
AJM, my Telstra cable is underground. The Optus ‘wire’ was put up in the poles to dangle the Optus cable on, but when Tesltra got here first Optus abandoned their wire. This all happened when Howard decided to give $4b to the two companies to lay the cable.
This was another failure of the ‘free market’. Some streets got two cables, some, like mine, got one (and wasted effort for the other) and whole suburbs got nothing. They are blinkered by their ideology, they cannot see that ‘market’ can be wasteful.
Yep, just checked. HFC. And I know that there is a TPG fibre running past the end of the street just 50m away – saw them putting it in a couple of years ago. Unfortunately they are only allowed to do fibre to the basement in multi-unit dwellings.
Perhaps it’s time for competition to be reintroduced! Neer thought I’d say that!
‘The failed stunt with a rep from Australia’s worst union last week would not have helped Bill’s numbers either. ‘
A stupid mistake, but at the same time a lot of casual and part-time Sunday workers would have pricked up their ears – It was a cut through message. Here is a guy like me, loosing money because of this decision.
Getting extra exposure because he was a fake may have spread the damaging message further.
Dr Vanessa Guthrie, whilst not on the Panel’s final list of recommendations, was identified by the Government as having the requisite skills.
AJM, competition for retail products, YES. Basic and required infrastructure, NO. Free enterprise will not serivice poorer areas unless given a subsidy.
As for TPG having to go to multi premise buildings, what a gift to the company. They capture a large number of customers for very little layout (usually they just terminate the fibre in the basement). NBN Co have to do the expensive and laborious work of servicing the same number of customers down many streets with many individual connections.
As for TPG having to go to multi premise buildings, what a gift to the company. They capture a large number of customers for very little layout (usually they just terminate the fibre in the basement). NBN Co have to do the expensive and laborious work of servicing the same number of customers down many streets with many individual connections.
Long story short – Turnbull fucked us all royally with Fraudband
Good move by Premier Andrews to tighten away from home allowances rules. Legislation will be rushed through specifying which electorates are eligible for same.
The two MPs who stepped down from their roles over weekend, should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves, and be paid to repay the allowance. Fancy your electorate being in Melbourne and having your second residence elsewhere and claim it from the taxpayer. Parasites
Bill’s PPM figures will be fine, once he’s PM.
Thus Spake Mungo: Tony Abbott’s vanity project
For most of the time, it hadn’t been a bad week for Malcolm Turnbull.
For starters, it was a non-sitting week, which meant that he didn’t have to spend much public time with the bumblers, urgers and saboteurs sitting around him on the government benches. True, it also deprived him of another chance to scream himself hoarse about the iniquities of Bill Shorten and renewable energy, but no doubt there would be plenty of other opportunities.
And of course there were the usual gaffes from the usual suspects. Peter Mutton admitted the bleeding obvious about the people swap
And then, of course, we had George Brandis (who else?) plausibly accused of having once again misled the senate over the messy affair of the assets of Bell Resources
The good bits included the chance to swan around with Turnbull’s good mate Bibi Netanyahu And the real pay off was when Bill Shorten wedged himself
So it was all going quite nicely – until, regular as Old Faithful, the Tony Abbott geyser spewed its sludge across the party. And this was not just another spray from the dethroned leader: this was the heavy stuff, a declaration of war against Turnbull with a list of demands to prove it
It is easy to say that Turnbull really needs to do something to slap Abbott down and keep him there: but what? The party is hopelessly divided, Turnbull is far from their pin-up boy, and even if he had the will it is hard to see what weapons of destruction he could employ. He has tried summary dismissal, sarcasm, attempting to look the other way. But unless he is prepared to take the pretender front on, to attempt to blow him away in the manner he is trying to dispose of Shorten, he will continue to cop the wrecking, sniping and undermining that Abbott is so enjoying.
MORE : http://www.echo.net.au/2017/02/thus-spake-mungo-tony-abbotts-vanity-project/
(for a start, who will be the Opposition Leader he’ll be PPM to?)
Good morning all ,
Albanese is a hypocrite. He stands up and calls for the end to factionalism and union influence within the party yet continues to be up to his armpits in factional wheeling and dealings.
For example, the attempt to remove Kim Carr from the front bench was part of a left factional battle driven by Albanese and motivated by his desire to strengthen his control over the left in Victoria and his personal dislike for Carr. So much for getting rid of factionalism Albo !
One of the reasons given by the left ( read Albanese ) for the decision not to nominate Carr for a front bench position was his age and a need for fresh faces. Yet, in NSW the left had put forward Doug Cameron for a front bench position even though he is actually older than Carr. Must be just a coincidence that Albanese first rode into a safe NSW seat on the back of support from the AMWU which at that time had one Doug Cameron as its national secretary. Bad unions hey Albanese.
So here we have Albanese crying from the roof tops about how bad union influence and factionalism is , yet, at the same time, is up to us armpits in internal factional fights and heavily in debt to unions such as the AMWU for his current position.
Albanese is a hypocrite.
Cheers to all.
**push coal during a bloody heatwave**
The Libs have (too late) sniffed the air on that one and started shifting the focus to pumped hydro (blamimg ALP for it not already happening) and ably support this morning on AM by S.Lane – right after a cushy little interview with buster Birmingham on how Newspoll is just a distraction caused by Abbott.
‘For most of the time, it hadn’t been a bad week for Malcolm Turnbull…’
It hadn’t particularly been a good one, either.
‘For starters, it was a non-sitting week, which meant that he didn’t have to spend much public time with the bumblers, urgers and saboteurs sitting around him on the government benches.’
Actually, they’re more obvious in non sitting weeks, when they’re out roaming the countryside.
‘True, it also deprived him of another chance to scream himself hoarse about the iniquities of Bill Shorten and renewable energy, but no doubt there would be plenty of other opportunities.’
I hope this is irony, not delusion. If it’s the latter, the more the media tell Turnbull that screaming about Bill is a good idea, the better.
‘Peter Mutton admitted the bleeding obvious about the people swap
And then, of course, we had George Brandis (who else?) plausibly accused of having once again misled the senate over the messy affair of the assets of Bell Resources..’
Beltway issues. Wouldn’t cause a heart flutter in voter land.
‘The good bits included the chance to swan around with Turnbull’s good mate Bibi Netanyahu ..’
This is probably also a beltway issue, but Turnbull sucking up to a visiting VIP big time isn’t actually a good look.
‘And the real pay off was when Bill Shorten wedged himself..’
Seriously? If anyone in the media thinking that the ordinary person’s take out from the penalty rates decision is ‘Shorten didn’t deal with it as well as he could have’, they’re….just as in touch with the person on the street as we have been saying for years…
‘So it was all going quite nicely..’
No, it wasn’t. Even that very optimistic list has the negatives outweighing the positives for Turnbull.
‘But unless he is prepared to take the pretender front on, to attempt to blow him away in the manner he is trying to dispose of Shorten, he will continue to cop the wrecking, sniping and undermining that Abbott is so enjoying.’
Malcolm is a bully. When someone can’t push back – as Shorten can’t, in Parliament – he’ll go for the jugular (I bet he waited until the cat’s back was turned…).
Look at his famous jibe to the Nats. It wasn’t “I’m not going to let you rumble me on issues that matter..’ it was “I own more cattle than you, nyah, nyah, nyah..’ and out of there before anyone could react.
They seem to be losing the middle ground… in a failed attempt to appease the right and the policy vacuum that One Nation represents.
PhoenixRED,
“The leaks are an endless circle that is consuming his presidency”.
Drain the leaks!
Good Morning
What lovely figures to wake up to. 🙂
Mike M
Yes. Cassidy mentioned that and how the public was expecting more of a Fraser style government than more same old same old. It was how the public was sold on Turnbull. His right wing appeasement has done him no good
Of course, the best way to tackle One Nation is to tackle the real underlying fears that ON supporters blame asylum seekers and Muslims for, and focus on job creation.
zoomster
Thats why Labor is leading in the TPP figure. The public knows Labor is for jobs and also for protecting the pay and conditions of the people in those jobs.
The very reason Trump got his voters and the con Hanson has been using to appeal to more voters.
I also think the public admires strong leaders with strong policy. Labor standing by its RET figures and SSM and the rest are a positive to voters. Means Labor believes in its policies and that genuineness cuts through.
If Abbott is more unpopular with the electorate than Turnbull, His interventions should not make Turnbull and his govt less popular too.
My view is that cost of living pressures including the impending cuts to penalty rates is the elephant in the room. Political commentators and CPG surely should see that less money for same hours worked is a biggie
Zoom, I reckon the public would accept Turnbull as a bully if only they didnt first recognise him as a coward – weak, puppet lord.
Personally, I am not convinced he is a coward as I am not convinced he actually had principles in the first place to have retreated from.
Davidwh is right, their internal divisions are a problem. But Turnbull is a product of that, not some outside body suffering from it. Their internal problems are not the source tho. Their internal problems are a direct result of embracing dubious policies and dog-whistling public stances that are designed for short term election success. Howard is considered a genius for it – but the cows are coming home to roost in their living room and the floor is covered in bullshit.
MTBW would no doubt declare the latest poll as the ‘narrowing’.
Acerbic Conehead Monday, February 27, 2017 at 9:01 am
PhoenixRED,
“The leaks are an endless circle that is consuming his presidency”.
Drain the leaks!
****************************************
Linda Stasi, who chronicled Mr. Trump’s up-and-down marriage to Marla Maples in the 1990s for two New York papers, said she could have predicted the presidential agita. “He would plant stories and he would get mad if they didn’t come out exactly as he wanted,” she recalled of earlier dealings with Mr. Trump. “It never occurred to him that he couldn’t control everything.”
Now, Ms. Stasi said, “he is shocked that he is not in control of the press.”
He loves the press; he lives for it,” Howard Stern, a frequent Trump interviewer and friend, said this month. “He wants to be liked; he wants to be loved.” Being president, Mr. Stern added, is not “going to be a healthy experience.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/25/us/politics/trump-press-conflict.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
**Drain the leaks!**
Ha!
Well, they cant stop them – too many dykes, not enough fingers.
Didn’t Graham Richardson tell us that Malcolm’s attack in Parliament was a masterstroke. He’s supposed to be a political guru. Shows he’s either full of s… or totally corrupted. I think both.
A11
It was. It gave us the Essential figures. Before the latest policy rubber hit the road.
z,
The other way to interpret the ON figure is that a proportion of Lib voters have parked themselves on the bridge as a protest vote about the current Government’s actions. (similar to the Greens voters and Labor). Whether this support converts at an election to real votes is questionable atm. No doubt, the WA poll will tell us a lot about whether ON is just another preference collector for the LNP similar to what the Greens have been for Labor.
Of course the media narrative today has been disunity as the cause. Even though many of them have talked about lagging polls in the past.
I don’t think the penalty rates decision is reflected in the polls yet. Hanson has not been out making strong statements about that and I think it will be interesting to see if they hold up as she continues to remain invisible on penalty rates and just leaves the child care comments out there.
Sorry
They is the polling figures of course.
The dilemma the LNP face with deposing Turnbull is “What would Malcolm do next”?
He is 62, already floats the Liberals and could convince one or two supporters to form a rump group and change sides to supporting Labor. He would be unlikely to run again but cause as much damage to his current vehicle of electoral convenience.
GG
I started to write a post about the Liberals wasting their time pursuing ON voters, but then realised that ON is very like the National Party, in that it does have some seats where its vote is concentrated, which does give it a chance to take seats off the Coalition, unlike the Greens and Labor – one seat does not a summer make…
So ON is more of a threat to the Coalition – particularly the Nats – than the Greens are to Labor (before the Greens get all hot under the collar, yes, Bandt holds Melbourne; however, that seems, on present polling, all they’re likely to get).
So I’d argue it’s the height of silliness for the Libs to worry about ON, and even more silly of them to shift to the right in an effort to win ON voters back. It makes perfect sense, however, for The Nats to be stressing out.
It might be another symptom of how Mal’s failure to stand up to the Nats to begin with is undermining his leadership.
—
btw, it’s a bit ungrateful of young Andrew Hastie to be in the Abbottrebooted brigade. If Abbott had stayed leader, he wouldn’t be in Parliament.
Morning all. Vale Bill Paxton, star in one of my favourite TV shows, Big Love.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-27/actor-bill-paxton-dead-at-61/8305396
Shorter GG
“The Libs are screwed whichever way they turn.”
Shorter Ratsak
“Good.”
zoomster,
btw, it’s a bit ungrateful of young Andrew Hastie to be in the Abbottrebooted brigade. If Abbott had stayed leader, he wouldn’t be in Parliament.
But it was Abbott that got him pre-selected and so, into parliament, with the help of the leadership change.
Of course Hastie would be an Abbott man. He is a Young Fogie.
Turnbull presser imminent.
GG
My stab is he would not support the ALP. No-one would form a group around him. Sure the option looks reasonable – Fraser was working on a properly liberal party before he died. But these wet libs are not up to it. They will just stick around in the Coalition womb, sucking their thumbs.
He would resign from parliament.
z,
At the minute, the ON vote hasn’t gone anywhere. The preference in these polls are being distributed in line with the previous election which went LNP by about 52/48. Since then, ON has surged and all of it is coming off the LNP vote. So, my question is whether the preference distributions being used are overly reliable.
Sure, the NATs vote is suffering. But, you look at the poll in Dawson. Whoever wins will rely on Labor preferences. As Labor has already said ON will be last on their ticket, then it’s unlikely for many seats to change hands.
What lawyers can do
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/02/25/hazara-refugee-nabi-zahers-citizenship-fight/14879412004272
Has anyone in this govt actually come out and said they sympathise with those who are going to have their pay cut?
GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Dawson 2 Party Preferred (LNP/ALP): LNP 56.0 (+2.7 since 2016) ALP 44.0 (-2.7) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Dawson 2 Party Preferred (LNP/ON): LNP 51.5 (-1.8 since 2016) ON 48.5 (+48.5) #auspol
If George goes and sits on a re-inforced cross-bench that might be the trigger to bring down Malcolm and install a real right-winger.
Sorry
Meant
GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Dawson 2 Party Preferred (LNP/ALP): LNP 56.0 (+2.7 since 2016) ALP 44.0 (-2.7) #auspol
william bowe @ #108 Monday, February 27, 2017 at 3:32 am
I think Rex Douglas has hacked Williams account.
Or perhaps Rex is a sock puppet William created for our entertainment?
Sorry Meant
GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal Seat of Dawson 2 Party Preferred (LNP/ALP): LNP 56.0 (+2.7 since 2016) ALP 44.0 (-2.7) #auspol
Turnbull attacking renewables again. That went so well for polling last time.
Turned on ABC24 and Malcolm “we will deliver a plan”. That’s all they ever deliver!!!