BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor

Slight movement to the Coalition in this week’s poll aggregate reading, with still no sign of slackening in the trend towards One Nation.

A bit of a blip towards the Coalition in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which only has a new Essential Research result to go on. This translates into extra seats for the Coalition in Victoria and Queensland. The only other feature of the result worth remarking on is that it’s still onwards and upwards for One Nation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

366 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 8
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  1. Is it now time for the hot weather and Malcolm’s lies over renewables and Scotty going berserk with a lump of coal to affect the polls? Essential’s polling made it clear the Libs are on the wrong side of those issues. Plus, of course, we haven’t really seen the effect of Malcolm cosying up to One Nation. Then, of course, there are penalty rates
    But, we will see…

  2. vogon poet @ #288 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    bemused @ #281 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:53 pm

    boerwar @ #278 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:51 pm

    Real organic honey would not have any additives.
    https://www.tastyhoney.com/blog/tag/fake-honey/

    Where can I get ‘inorganic’ honey?

    Imported honey has been found to contain C4 sugars, corn syrup or cane sugar. Allowrie use Chinese “honey “, previously found to contain extra chemicals.

    I looked it up, and I am disgusted with Capilano/Allowrie.

    I trusted Capilano, I feel betrayed. I love honey. I always thought Capilano was the gold standard, though now I get my honey from a local beekeeper. May they rot.

    http://www.tastyhoney.com/blog/general/capilano-revives-allowrie-brand-to-sell-cheap-imported-chinese-honey-in-coles-supermarkets/

    Australia’s largest honey producer, Capilano, is trying to disguise the fact it is now selling cheap imported honey in Coles supermarkets by reviving its Allowrie brand.

    Presumably the company doesn’t want to tarnish the market standing of its Capilano brand, which has long enjoyed a good reputation in the market as a brand associated only with pure Australian honey.

  3. booleanbach @ #263 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:28 pm

    Dave, it is not just the taxpayers who pay for clean up of all those plastic bottles.
    Our seas are filling with the stuff and just about every sea creature has a belly full (literally) and are headed to extinction because of it.

    Yep. Only ‘winners’ are those who sell our own water to us.

    Everyone else, the environment come a distant last.

  4. Now is the time for lawmakers to follow through on promises they made in their 2016 campaigns, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told the crowd Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference.

    “This election was the American people saying, ‘Enough already with the corruption in both parties, Democrats and Republicans who have been here too long,’” Cruz said.

    Cruz told attendees of the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, that one significant way politicians could deliver on “draining the swamp” is by paving the way for term limits for Congress.

    http://dailysignal.com/2017/02/23/ted-cruz-at-cpac-urges-term-limits-for-congress/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tds-tw

    Latika via Facebook asks whether we need the same term limits here in Oz with our MPs.

    My view is no. For the simple reason that our electoral system is different to that of the US. Yes we have lifers in the parliament who get to hang around way past their use-by date, but these MPs tend to sit at the margins and don’t really have much impact. Our electoral system of compulsory voting means that the contest is in the middle ground rather than the partisan voter ground. Not for the first time I find myself asking whether the Latika I follow on facebook was actually at one point a member of the Canberra press gallery.

  5. Don, I get my honey from a local beekeeper, know the bloke. 100% honey.
    Had read that Capilano was feeding bees sugar syrup to up production, whether true or not I don’t know, but I’d rather support a local operator.

  6. PvO’s NewsPoll wows are weird normally not that exciting. As for its release, I thought we were now on Tuesday (or late Monday night after Qanda)

  7. bk @ #267 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:35 pm

    There are so many examples and classes of worker exploitation that Labor should continue to hammer the government with. For example, franchise wage rorts, 457 visa rorts, lack of support for penalty rates. In almost all cases it is the natural constituency of the Coalition who are the perpetrators.
    Add to this the behaviour of the banks, the spiv VET outfits, etc.

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    RC is probably the only effective way to address this – foreshadowed in the election campaign.

    Bank RC too of course.

  8. Ides of March – its tonight.

    The reason I’m cautious is that PvO hasn’t bothered to tweet wow or anything re Newspoll for quite a while, I’m just tipping its movement, not no change. And the NP benchmark is now 3 weeks old, and it was 54-46 to Labor then. Not really tipping it to be even worse for the govt when the last Essential was 52-48 less than a week ago. Its possible, but seems less likely than the govt recovering some ground. Happy to be wrong!

  9. IoM – If it is not going to be released tonight, how would PvO have his hands on it? Would he get a copy more than 24 hours early?

  10. I didn’t mean to post an ‘alternative fact’ with my comment about Trump’s campaign connecting with more voters.
    Hillary had one of the largest (if not the largest) margin on the popular vote in her favour without winning.
    What I was trying to clumsily say (al la Rundle) is that the economic policies Trump had at one level were more believable to unhappy voters than Hillary’s – in that the system is broken, is not ‘great’ and needs fixing.
    This did not come across as nearly as much in Hillary’s campaign, part of the problem in framing this is that Obama was completing 2 terms and there was a recovery from the GFC.
    It was hard to attack the system without attacking Obama, even though in his second term his power to make change was limited.

  11. don @ #299 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    I always thought that organic honey was honey that hadn’t been heat treated to stop it candying.
    It never crossed my mind that someone would use sugar or corn syrup to bulk it up.

    There has been a petition backing a campaign on the topic of imported honey being mis-labeled and additives to honey.
    Almost put me off buying honey as big brands are involved.

  12. Bernard Keane tweeted that he agreed with Gotti on Ahmed Fahour: https://t.co/2vXLIXtYMe

    And I agree with both of them (except about selling off the parcels business). Fahour’s salary was too high only because most CEO salaries are too high. I don’t think it was out of line with other people in similar positions.

  13. eMpTy attacks Australia Post for the level of its CEO’s salary (I am not disagreeing it was high) yet remains silent on the value of the Banks CEO salaries, I wonder why?

  14. Ides:

    Personally I find William’s bludgertrack a more useful tool, but we shall see.

    It’s always good to get one in on the coalition when Newspoll ticks MOE-wise in the negative. And of course lately it’s grist to the mill for the Abbottobads in the same way the Ruddists used to riff off negative polling for the Gillard govt.

  15. b.c. @ #327 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 8:52 pm

    https://t.co/2vXLIXtYMe
    Fahour’s salary was too high only because most CEO salaries are too high. I don’t think it was out of line with other people in similar positions.

    The other relevant (unstated by most/ all media?) factor in Aust Post’s ‘brillant’ financial results is that they put up the price of stamps. That cut losses from letters and allowed the profits from parcels to shine through. Again.

    Hardly rocket science or even $5 or $6 million of ‘brilliance’ salary wise.

    Then there was the irishman from Qantas – who was fated when the price of fuel went down – profit soared etc. Wadda guy – wadda ‘hero’ !

    But when prices went up recently and profit dropped – well – it wasn’t his fault etc blah blah.

  16. lord haw haw of arabia @ #329 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 9:02 pm

    eMpTy attacks Australia Post for the level of its CEO’s salary (I am not disagreeing it was high) yet remains silent on the value of the Banks CEO salaries, I wonder why?

    A fundamental reason.

    Aust Post is Government owned. That CEO on $5.6 Million etc

    The PM on about $500 k or so.

    The Bank’s have had their CEO packages challenged, “first strike” voting warnings which if repeated could see the boards of the Banks concerned ‘swept’ from their positions etc.

    Fahour convinced his board on his salary – but over time the shareholder – the Government burred up – and in such circumstances there can only be one winner – one outcome.

    Thats is what has happened.

  17. Newspoll seems to flip between Sunday and Monday nights, presumably it is published when it is ‘ready’.
    Possibly timing depends on what other stories they have for the Monday morning, if they have a lot of news (fake and otherwise 🙂 ) they might move it to Tuesday.

  18. Dave:

    I read a couple of weeks ago that it was the Abbott govt that relaxed whatever regs on qango govt agencies when it came into govt that enabled the Fahour AusPost salary in the first place. I always thought it was a bit rich for the Turnbull coalition govt to be now whingeing about his salary at this point.

  19. confessions @ #335 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 9:25 pm

    Dave:
    I read a couple of weeks ago that it was the Abbott govt that relaxed whatever regs on qango govt agencies when it came into govt that enabled the Fahour AusPost salary in the first place. I always thought it was a bit rich for the Turnbull coalition govt to be now whingeing about his salary at this point.

    Fess – thats right.

    The other utterly delicious aspect to it was abbott’s ‘decision’ was related to cutting red tape – ie he swept away valid accountability in this case of a vital government owned business.

    The tories – such ‘brilliant financial’ managers.

    🙂

  20. briefly @ #254 Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 7:00 pm

    Grimace
    Sunday, February 26, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    We can cite many examples of highly positive reactions from voters in the north….from coast right across through Burns Beach and Joondalup, Wanneroo and West Swan….very happy declarations from voters, assuring us they want to support change…becoming more pronounced every week.

    I have noticed a big change in sentiment in the last two door knocks I did. The first three knocks I did were in Ellenbrook itself, which in general is not a particularly well off suburb, the last two I’ve done were in The Vines (on Ellenbrook’s north western border) which is a very well off area. In the Vines there has been a distinct anti Colin/Liberal sentiment.

    I had wondered if it was down to a difference in socioeconomics, or a more general shift in attitudes. When we headed into the Vines last weekend I was expecting a hostile reception from voters when in fact the message was well received, and today we were in an area that was probably the best off in the Vines and there were two voters expressing their white hot anger with the Liberals, and these were people in huge houses on huge blocks.

    It’s good to hear about how the campaign is going in other seats.

    If this swing keeps going, keeping in mind that Liberal HQ felt a week ago that Southern River and Jandakot were in play, they’ll be reduced to a handful of seats in the western suburbs.

  21. Thought Newspoll came out on a Sunday night when parliament was on Monday, and Monday night when there was a Tuesday start to parliament.

  22. The other utterly delicious aspect to it was abbott’s ‘decision’ was related to cutting red tape – ie he swept away valid accountability in this case of a vital government owned business.

    Typical. The Liberals have NFI and NFClue when it comes to governing. Never have had and likely never will have.

  23. Confessions

    he swept away valid accountability in this case of a vital government owned business.

    .

    The Liberals have NFI

    Quite the opposite, they know exactly what they are doing.Their sponsors bidding

  24. they know exactly what they are doing.

    They do it systematically, consistently and above all with malice intent.

    Arseholes – no other way of saying it.

  25. PVO didn’t say “WOW”, David, he said “wow”.

    Can you explain, from a Liberal perspective, the nuanced significance of the emphasis?

    Would your interpretation be different if he had said “Wow”?

  26. Newspoll
    55-45 2pp to Labor
    Primaries: Coalition 34, Labor 37, Greens 10, One Nation 10, Others 9
    Turnbull: Satisfied 29, Dissatisfied 59
    Shorten Satisfied 30, Dissatisfied 56
    Better PM: Turnbull 40, Shorten 33
    1582 sample. Feb 23-26

  27. Don, my phone is an Android so checked. When I loaded it it was Here Is, but I noticed That it updated its name to HereWeGo.

    Couldn’t find it when checking the Apple App Store, m,and found this that looks very similar. Sygic: GPS Navigation, offline Maps, Traffic (also free).

    Someone mentioned something else they used above. So it may be worth having a little play with them.

    Thanks for the bushwalking app. I was wondering if there was a good one out there.

  28. Quite the opposite, they know exactly what they are doing.

    Au contraire. If these morons knew what they were doing they wouldn’t have botched this so obviously as they did this week.

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