BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. BK

    So this is the result of the extreme vetting of PHON candidates that Hanson was telling us about!,/blockquote.
    Ah, I see you fell into the trap. Easy mistake to make. You assumed the purpose of “extreme vetting” by PHON was to weed OUT the nutters.

  2. Not sure about the ins and outs of the whole thing but I’m wondering if this is a turning point in that it might wake a lot of the American people up to the fact that “Ok yeah right, you can and should be sacked for having ties to Russia!”

  3. poroti @ #901 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 4:06 pm

    BK

    So this is the result of the extreme vetting of PHON candidates that Hanson was telling us about!,/blockquote.
    Ah, I see you fell into the trap. Easy mistake to make. You assumed the purpose of “extreme vetting” by PHON was to weed OUT the nutters.

    Darn!
    I knew I was missing the point somewhere.

  4. guytaur Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 3:46 pm

    Apparently if you are watching CNN you are getting the same briefing as Donald Trump.

    Its a CNN claim so maybe BS but maybe not.

    *************************************
    It seems to be thought that Trump gets his REAL NEWS from FOX …… based on the timed to the second pause in-between what THEY say/criticise and his next tweet – which is a basic copy of which some FAUX NEWS RWNJ moron has just said …….

  6. I’m wondering if this is a turning point in that it might wake a lot of the American people up to the fact that “Ok yeah right, you can and should be sacked for having ties to Russia!”

    Almost certainly not. The partisanship in American politics makes Australian politics look tame and reasonable by comparison. The more psychotic Trump looks, the more the party faithful will dig in to defend him.

    On the other hand, Trump’s approval ratings are already at historic lows for a new president this early into their first term. So to a certain extent the American people have already caught on.

  7. Mike Flynn’s Resignation Is The First Domino To Fall In Trump’s Russia Scandal Nightmare

    Trump hopes that the resignation of Mike Flynn represents the end of the Russian scandal, but it is likely the first domino to fall in a nightmare that has the potential to destroy a president.

    The Trump administration is throwing Flynn under the bus and hoping that they can rely on the one bad apple defense to make the Russia scandal go away. Flynn’s resignation is likely to have the opposite impact.

    The questions about Trump’s relationship Russia didn’t begin, and won’t end with Flynn.

    Trump’s Russia nightmare is about to get a whole lot worse.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/02/13/mike-flynns-resignation-domino-fall-trumps-russia-scandal-nightmare.html

  8. . Are these sort of practises normal ? I’d love to be able to follow the donation trail. They did seem very keen on getting it through

    Audit report critical of WestConnex loan

    A $2bn concessional loan from the Abbott government to pay for the WestConnex road project in Western Sydney failed to protect federal interests and to speed up the project by up to two years, the audit office has found.

    In May 2014 the Abbott government made a $500m advance payment and the $2bn loan, which the report said resulted in “the project being approved without there being any documented analysis and advice to ministers that the statutory criteria for giving such approvals had been met”.

    Further, criteria for progress payments were set after milestones had already been achieved, ensuring payments flowed without providing accountability. The infrastructure department denies this charge

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/feb/14/nick-xenophon-rules-out-support-for-omnibus-savings-bill-politics-live

  10. Barnyard on sky has informed us: “…I think all electrons are born equal, it doesn’t matter what they come from…” I have f… well heard everything now.

  11. Gt

    Too late. Trump is President thanks to Comey leaking one ongoing investigation not the other.

    Thats fact and trying to be a “hero” now will not change those facts.

    Comey’s actions are one reason out of a big number of reasons.

  13. Those who remember watergate may recall that every time somebody walked the plank people thought that was the end of the matter.

    Then a little while later the next person up the line had to go.

    Took a while but it eventually got the Oval Office and Nixon walked.

    FLynn might just be the first of many.

  15. Antonbruckner11
    “Barnyard on sky has informed us: “…I think all electrons are born equal, it doesn’t matter what they come from…” I have f… well heard everything now.”

    Wow. WTF. That’s right up there with another of Barnyard’s gems: Carbon dioxide is harmless, because it’s invisible and odourless. (Both things also true of carbon monoxide and methane, BTW.)

  16. The electrons may be equal, but the byproducts of the materials used to create them are not. Nor are the after effects that those byproducts create.

  21. The point, Swamprat, is that no one is proposing that sharia law be introduced in Australia.

    Christianity also teaches that preaching a religion other than Christianity is a crime – and goes further than that, because (at least traditionally) certain forms of Christianity were regarded as crimes by other Christians (and, as we know from the massacres of both Catholics and Protestants, punishable by death). The whole concept of ‘heresy’ is built around the idea that some interpretations of Christianity (that is, some people’s thoughts about it) are wrong.

    If you implemented the Old Testament laws – and many ‘fundie’ Christians base their opposition to homosexuality, for example, on OT laws – you’d have much the same kind of regime.

    The article you quote makes it clear that Brunei (a very small kingdom) is remarkable BECAUSE it is talking about implementing sharia law – so sharia law is obviously not ‘the norm’ in Islamic states.

    Sharia law is not a threat here. People might try and live by it, just as people live by their own moral rules now, but it is subordinate to the law of the land, and I don’t see any proposals being put forward to change that.

  22. Swamprat
    “Brunei’s sharia law includes execution of gays, adultery and blasphemy amongst many other “crimes”.

    That’s how Brunei chooses to interpret ‘sharia’. I’m not justifying these practises at all. But it’s not due to sharia; it’s due to the intolerance of the Brunei government, which couches its laws as ‘sharia’.

  24. Kremlin concerned Trump may be more ‘unpredictable’ than they had bargained for: report

    While there are still suspicions that the Russian government had a hand in the election of President Donald Trump, Kremlin policymakers are beginning to see problems with the newly-elected president’s administration that could unsettle the world in ways that were previously limited to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    According to Foreign Policy, the election of Trump was once seen as “a divine gift,” but now that he is in power they’re not so sure.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/kremlin-concerned-trump-may-be-more-unpredictable-than-they-had-bargained-for-report/

  25. Talking about bastard religionists, the United States under Trump is well on the road towards criminalizing abortion for any reason at any time.

  26. It also needs to be noted that Christianity and Islam are rarely in tandem – sometimes Christianity is ‘ahead’ of Islam, sometimes Islam is ‘ahead’ of Christianity.

    A few centuries ago, Islamic societies were far more tolerant and open than Christian ones.

    At present, Australian churches bar certain ‘sinners’ from working for them.. This is why churches are exempt from certain laws around discrimination – precisely so they can implement THEIR religious laws in Australia.

    In workplaces run by these churches – which includes schools – ‘adultery, living in sin, homosexual intercourse and being transsexual as sure career-stoppers.’

    These churches actively lobby to be able to continue this behaviour – but Muslims, although they would like the same exemptions, don’t lobby for them.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/faiths-rule-on-sex-from-staffroom-to-bedroom-20110213-1asj0.html

    Swamprat, explain why this is acceptable.

  27. The point, Swamprat, is that no one is proposing that sharia law be introduced in Australia.

    Exactly this. And also:

    Muslim population in Brunei – 67%
    Muslim population in Australia – 2.2%

    Even if anyone was making that proposal, it has absolutely zero chance of getting anywhere in Australia.

    To say nothing of the absurdity of comparing a tiny (population under 0.5 million, area under 6,000 square kilometers) non-Western country to a much larger Western one and concluding that ‘there but for the vilification of Muslims goes Australia.

  29. doyley @ #876 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 3:35 pm

    Good afternoon all,
    ATM you could have Santa Claus as the LOTO or even PM and he would have negative stats.
    When Tony Abbott became opposition leader in 2009 the rot began and the loss of faith in the political system was put into hypo drive.
    Abbott slashed and burned his way through every political convention there was to destroy the Gillard government. Collateral damage to the whole system wad a small price for Abbott to pay to become PM.
    The effects of the Abbott strategy are on full show today and are now blowing back onto the government as well as labor and Shorten.
    The PPM stats and even net satisfaction stats are now of less significance than they have ever been and are not the main game. No leader of the two main parties would be popular in this new age political environment.
    Cheers.

    Just accepting mediocrity will not improve Bill Shortens atrocious standing with the people.

    39/25 PPM to Turnbull, in the current climate of Liberal Party turmoil, is very poor for Bill Shorten.

  30. Sharia has been abused by intolerant and theocratic regimes to justify all kinds of egregious practises that have nothing to do with sharia or Islam. Sharia existed long before Islam, and arose from within the Abrahamic tradition.

    Muslims must adhere to the laws of any country they live in. So this idea that sharia subverts or overturns secular laws is untrue. Sharia does not require that people have their hands cut off for theft, or that non-Muslims be punished for blasphemy. Any Muslims who say this this are demagogues trying to twist religion for political gain. Genuine sharia cannot be forced onto other people.

  32. zoomster @ #926 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 5:31 pm

    It also needs to be noted that Christianity and Islam are rarely in tandem – sometimes Christianity is ‘ahead’ of Islam, sometimes Islam is ‘ahead’ of Christianity.
    A few centuries ago, Islamic societies were far more tolerant and open than Christian ones.
    At present, Australian churches bar certain ‘sinners’ from working for them.. This is why churches are exempt from certain laws around discrimination – precisely so they can implement THEIR religious laws in Australia.
    In workplaces run by these churches – which includes schools – ‘adultery, living in sin, homosexual intercourse and being transsexual as sure career-stoppers.’
    These churches actively lobby to be able to continue this behaviour – but Muslims, although they would like the same exemptions, don’t lobby for them.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/faiths-rule-on-sex-from-staffroom-to-bedroom-20110213-1asj0.html
    Swamprat, explain why this is acceptable.

    But paedophiles are tolerated and facilitated.
    What wonderful caring organisations.

  33. Zoomster
    “A few centuries ago, Islamic societies were far more tolerant and open than Christian ones.”

    Jews escaping the pogroms of Christian Europe (including the Inquisition) could seek refuge in the Muslim states of North Africa and the Middle East.
    Most of the Crusades sent to ‘liberate’ the Holy Land managed to find time to massacre Jews along the way.

  34. Would not surprise me to see the GoP push on following Flynns departure and press for Trump’s impeachment.
    Pence is their man.

  35. Dear oh dear.

    I was only responding to stupid statements that sharia law is like the meeting rules for the CWA. I do not think it is likely to be introduced in Australia.

    14 countries have the death penalty for homosexuality. They all just happen to be muslim majority countries. And it is a fact that this is in keeping with sharia law According to what i read.

    It’s a pity you liberals never learnt a little bit of logic. You come back with irrelevant statements about how terrible all other religions are.

  37. BK
    Re David Rowe re think that Punch and Judy ,is a good guess, notice the misspelling “bear” answer the blackboard points going backwards

  38. Muslim population in Brunei – 67%
    Muslim population in Australia – 2.2%

    and people like Hanson and Lambie and their followers carry on as if we are about to be overrun some time soon.

    My BIL has a problem with Muslims and points out they have big families and says one day they will outnumber white people.

    I said “do the math and see how long that will take. and you are 75 so you wont be around even if it could happen.”

  39. swamprat @ #936 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 5:49 pm

    Barney in Saigon.
    You explain why its acceptable. Its got fuckall to do with what i said. Just another liberal unicorn.

    I do believe I was responding to the article posted by Zoomster, not what you said, but seeing you asked I believe all religions should be completely beholden to the law and there should be no exceptions which allow them to behave differently.

    The other posters have pointed out that this is not the case in Australia and to, rightfully, deny any sanctioning of Sharia Law we should also remove anything that sanctions any other religion’s laws or beliefs.

  40. Anton @#910
    Yeah, but when i get electrons from Origin Energy they cost a hell of a lot more than when OE gets electrons from my solar PV. So, not all electrons are born equal!!

  41. PhoenixRED
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 5:26 pm

    According to Foreign Policy, the election of Trump was once seen as “a divine gift,” but now that he is in power they’re not so sure.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/kremlin-concerned-trump-may-be-more-unpredictable-than-they-had-bargained-for-report/

    Be carefull what you wish for… Seems to apply to just about everyone. Trump’s biggest fans will get it in a few years, because they are a bit slow 🙂

    The Kremlin’s ability to shock the world by taking the initiative and trashing ordinary international rules and customs has allowed Russia to play an oversized international role and to punch above its weight,” the piece continues.

  43. ’14 countries have the death penalty for homosexuality.’

    Incorrect.

    This article lists 10 –

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/13/here-are-the-10-countries-where-homosexuality-may-be-punished-by-death-2/?utm_term=.1e0a8e255b9a

    Of those 10, some only impose that penalty on Muslims; in some, the law only applies in certain regions; in some, although the law is on the statute books, it has never been applied.

    Of course, homosexuality was a crime in Western countries until quite recent times.

  44. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics · 2m2 minutes ago

    There is no equivalence here. At every level of Fed and state government it is writ large. The problem is *ONE* party

  45. 14 countries have the death penalty for homosexuality. They all just happen to be muslim majority countries.

    Which sucks. And some Australian states still have the ‘gay panic’ defence on the books, which sucks just about as much. Nor do you have to go very far back in history to reach a time when persecution of homosexuals was the norm in majority Christian states.

    Oh, but they weren’t executed. They were just arrested, and often beaten, and jailed or forced to undergo chemical castration, and excluded from the workforce as criminals, and otherwise just made to wish that they were dead. Many would take their own lives as a result.

    But it’s all fine because for the past few decades we haven’t done that anymore. That means we get to point our fingers at whomever we want and condemn their barbaric ways and their backwards religion.

    Pot meet kettle.

  46. At the end of the day, energy supplies are shaping up as a big issue and:
    (a) Malcolm will not put a price on carbon; and
    (b) Is wedded to clean coal insanity.
    I don’t see either changing before the next election. So that means he’s gonna have to tap-dance on this issue for 18 months. Good luck with that.

  47. Swamprat –

    ‘It’s a pity you liberals never learnt a little bit of logic. You come back with irrelevant statements about how terrible all other religions are.’

    It’s a pity you righties are scared of facts. You come back with irrelevant statements about how terrible liberals are.

  48. lizzie @ #944 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 6:18 pm

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics · 2m2 minutes ago
    There is no equivalence here. At every level of Fed and state government it is writ large. The problem is *ONE* party

    He is referring to Michael Pascoe’s article http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-end-of-australias-political-consensus-20170213-gubrrn.html
    Here is the Twitter thread.
    https://twitter.com/Pollytics/status/831401654087933953

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