Today’s Courier-Mail carries a Galaxy poll of state voting intention of Queensland, the most eye-catching result of which is that One Nation is at 23% of the primary vote, up seven points on the last such poll in early November. Both major parties are down four points, Labor to 31% and the Liberal National Party to 33%, with the Greens on 8% and Katter’s Australian Party on 3%. Labor maintains its lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, but such numbers have to be regarded as suspect with the non-major party vote as high as it is. The rise of One Nation appears to have encouraged a “none of the above” response for preferred premier, on which Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over Tim Nicholls narrows from 46-28 to 39-27. Palaszczuk is down three on approval to 41% and two on disapproval to 37%, and Nicholls is down four to 27% and up four to 39%. No information yet about sample size and field work dates.
UPDATE: A ReachTEL poll for the Seven Network has the LNP with a two-party lead of 53-47, but is quite a lot more like the Galaxy poll in terms of One Nation support, which is at 21.3%. A question on whether the state would be better off if One Nation had seats in parliament records 40.4% for yes and 35.8% for no. Pauline Hanson has an approval rating of 37.2% and a disapproval rating of 38.9%. Despite the two-party preferred, Annastacia Palaszczuk’s performance was rated above average by 60.4%, below average by 35.7%; the corresponding figures for Tim Nicholls are 48.1% and 30.3%. No primary votes at this stage, but stay tuned.
UPDATE 2: ReachTEL’s primary votes, inclusive of a follow-up forced preference question for the undecided, are Labor 30.9%, Liberal National Party 33.2%, One Nation 22.3% and Greens 7.0% – all but identical to Galaxy’s numbers, despite the radically different two-party results. ReachTEL’s preferences are respondent-allocated, breaking 53.7-46.3 to the LNP among minor party and independent voters, whereas Galaxy’s are 56-44 in favour of Labor – based, I think, on averaged preference flows from the past three elections. The sample sizes were 867 for the Galaxy poll and 2199 for ReachTEL.