BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  5. Player One
    …
    NSW didn’t have enough power – of any description. NSW uses coal, gas and various renewables. It’s as silly to pick one and blame it as it is to pick one and say “it saved the day”.

    About as stupid as picking one and saying it caused the problem in SA. It would be far better if the pimples on our body politic shut up and let the people with some training in the area; say Dr Alan Finkel deal with the issue which is basically; how do get our electricity as cheaply as possible with minimum carbon emissions?

  9. Well P1
    I predict there will be no recommendation for nuclear, that system stability will be obtained with pump storage and gas and the market will have to be changed to support short term gas usage and increased spinning reserves with most new installs being solar and wind. Coal will only be mentioned as stations closing.
    And there will be a recommendation for the ties and controls to make it all work.
    I think I am also safe in predicting that the IPA will go ballistic with there normal shit and you will try and convince us the guy doesn’t know shit because he didn’t recommend nuclear or a shit load of gas stations.

  12. I thought that the ignorance shown by those on PB who use mental illness as a metaphor, figure of speech, or rhetorical flourish was satisfactorily dealt with a couple of weeks back.

    Apparently not.

    Psyclaw, you take yourself too damn seriously. Either that, or you are obsessively stalking my posts for the slightest chink in my armour so that you can attack me. I’d be doing my best to get over myself if I were you. If you can’t handle a common figure of speech in the manner in which it was harmlessly intended, and which most would have understood it, then I feel real pity for you.

  13. frednk @ #1009 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:14 pm

    Well P1
    I predict there will be no recommendation for nuclear, that system stability will be obtained with pump storage and gas and the market will have to be changed to support short term gas usage and increased spinning reserves with most new installs being solar and wind. Coal will only be mentioned as stations closing.
    And there will be a recommendation for the ties and controls to make it all work.
    I think I am also safe in predicting that the IPA will go ballistic with there normal shit and you will try and convince us the guy doesn’t know shit because he didn’t recommend nuclear or a shit load of gas stations.

    We agree 100%

  15. ratsak @ #972 #972 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 7:27 pm

    OH
    MY
    FUCKING
    GOD!!!!
    I’d heard about Burke’s POO about requiring Barnyard to answer in English. But Kudelka has the question and answer that led to it.
    https://twitter.com/jonkudelka/status/831378637152669696
    How the Speaker could do other than uphold the point of order is beyond conception.
    Barney’s too dumb to be quoting Ern Malley surely? (Ern Malley makes more sense even as prose though)

    Tony Burke is gold.

    If Bill falls under a bus, my vote is with Burke. He’s a modern Keating in my book. There are times when he is on fire.

  16. c@tmomma @ #1012 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:35 pm

    I thought that the ignorance shown by those on PB who use mental illness as a metaphor, figure of speech, or rhetorical flourish was satisfactorily dealt with a couple of weeks back.
    Apparently not.
    Psyclaw, you take yourself too damn seriously. Either that, or you are obsessively stalking my posts for the slightest chink in my armour so that you can attack me. I’d be doing my best to get over myself if I were you. If you can’t handle a common figure of speech in the manner in which it was harmlessly intended, and which most would have understood it, then I feel real pity for you.

    I think your greatest sin was miss-diagnosing your condition. 🙂

  17. I sense that Waleed Aly has approximately the same effect on people he comes in contact with as Malcolm Turnbull does. A very smart guy who knows it and doesn’t leave people in any doubt about it. To the point that it really pisses those same people off.

  21. There is no gay panic defence in any statute. Rather in Queensland alone, an accused can raise, as an element of the ordinary partial defence of provocation, an unwanted sexual advance and there is no statute preventing it. Once raised, it becomes a matter for the jury to decide.

    That an accused can raise such a defence in Queensland is because all other jurisdictions banned it eventually in response to the thin majority decision (3-2)of the High Court in Green v the Queen recognising the defence in which Brennan CJ held:

    “The trust which the appellant had placed in the deceased before the deceased got into the appellant’s bed, the consumption of a considerable quantity of alcohol on the night of the killing, the appellant’s response to the deceased’s first homosexual advance that “I’m not like this”, the deceased’s persistence in his homosexual advances, his grabbing and pulling of the appellant, his touching the appellant’s groin and the appellant’s knowledge or belief of and sensitivity to his father’s sexual abuse of the appellant’s sisters were all matters that were to be taken into account in determining the availability of the defence of provocation. The appellant’s recollection of and sensitivity to his father’s sexual abuse of the appellant’s sisters (“the sexual abuse factor” as I shall call it) was relevant to the question whether the deceased’s conduct had induced a loss of self-control on the part of the appellant (a question arising under par(a) of s 23(2)) and to the question of the significance of the provocative conduct to the appellant (a question arising under par (b) of s 23(2)). The sexual abuse factor was relevant to those questions because it tended to make it more likely that the appellant was more severely provoked by the deceased’s unwanted homosexual advances than he would otherwise have been and thus more likely that he had been induced thereby to lose self-control and inflict the fatal blows and more likely that the appellant was so incensed by the deceased’s conduct that, had an ordinary person been provoked to the same extent, that person could have formed an intention to kill the deceased or to inflict grievous bodily harm upon him.”


  23. Player One
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:35 pm

    frednk @ #1009 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:14 pm
    ..
    We agree 100%

    Which bit; my view on what the recommendation will be, or my view you will ignore the export opinion and keep carry on wasting bandwidth with ill informed rubbish?


  24. 0shellbell
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:51 pm
    There is no gay panic defence in any statute
    ..

    I have had one of those advances; it was in LA. I will have you know I have lovely big hands and the fact that I am married doesn’t matter. Got of the train at the next station; hoofed it to the bus and got on; the man in front was large; black and dressed as a women. We are talking Hollywood.
    My take away thought was not; I would like to kill the guy; it was must be pretty hard being a women and having to put up with that on a regular basis.

  25. frednk @ #1023 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:55 pm


    Player One
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:35 pm
    frednk @ #1009 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:14 pm
    ..
    We agree 100%

    Which bit; my view on what the recommendation will be, or my view you will ignore the export opinion and keep carry on wasting bandwidth with ill informed rubbish?

    I agreed with every word of yours I quoted. Why do you find that surprising? You really don’t understand, do you? I am all in favor of renewables. I just don’t believe we can shift to them fast enough to avoid catastrophe. I’m sorry if that is too nuanced for you.

  27. “I’m not guilty, your honour. I’m never guilty. All those who say I am should just get over it and stop taking themselves so seriously. Really your honour, it was just an everyday triviality.”

    Totally lacking sensitivity.

    Some on PB including myself have had very sad experiences involving Bipolar Disorder. And continue to have.

  28. I hope that Shorten has some very well thought trough plan on compensation for the Stolen Generation.

    If it was just a thought bubble I’d say he’s made a rod for his back.

  30. Psyclaw,
    Again with the snark. No wonder I don’t take your comments towards me seriously, you just won’t quit it.

    Now, for your information, may I introduce you to another definition of ‘Bipolar’. That is, wildly swinging between the two poles. That is the sense in which I meant what I said. Maybe I could have said, ‘Jacquie Lambie makes me feel as if I’m being dragged from pillar to post!’ I didn’t because it would have taken longer. That you would personalise and misinterpret what I chose to say is not my fault.

    You have my sympathy if you have suffered from Bipolar Disorder. However, it is not of so great an import on this blog that I have to kowtow to you because I use another interpretation, commonly understood, of the word ‘bipolar’.

    So if you fail to comprehend that, and come back with more playground snark by way of a response, well, I don’t really feel the need to respond to that as it will be self-explanatory that you don’t want to concede the point.

  31. If the goal is to reduce electricity costs, the quickest and most effective way to do it is to implement a domestic gas reservation scheme. It could be implemented tomorrow.

    If the goal is to shut down coal-fired generation, the quickest way to do it is to build gas to replace the coal. We could start building tomorrow.

    If the goal is zero stationary energy carbon emissions (and it is my goal), then we need to think hard about how that is done, because it requires a mix of new technologies – some of them proven, but not in combination at a system-wide level. In addition to more renewable energy supply, we will also need more networks, more storage, more demand response. However, the questions of “how much” and “where” are the ones that need answering, and this can only be done with some serious system modelling tools that take into account the real technical limitations of our existing grid.

    So, I reckon Finkel will start be calling for a gas reservation policy, to support a policy of a gas-fired bridge to a renewables-heavy future, at an acceptable cost. Make your own prediction about the timelines, but I foresee 2-3 large concentrated solar thermal plants in SA and either NSW or QLD under construction by the end of the decade. Investors just need some certainty (And where are Aus Industry Super Funds on this? Throw some capital at a CST plant you mupppets!)

    The gas lobby will go ballistic about it. Fuck em. They think their industry should thrive while all others go to hell? Fuck em. They will make bold statements about sovereign risk and how it will cripple investment (in gas) and cut into national income. Fuck. Them. They don’t pay their way now, and will try everything to avoid it in the future.

  32. libertarian unionist @ #1031 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 10:56 pm

    If the goal is to reduce electricity costs, the quickest and most effective way to do it is to implement a domestic gas reservation scheme. It could be implemented tomorrow.
    If the goal is to shut down coal-fired generation, the quickest way to do it is to build gas to replace the coal. We could start building tomorrow.
    If the goal is zero stationary energy carbon emissions (and it is my goal), then we need to think hard about how that is done, because it requires a mix of new technologies – some of them proven, but not in combination at a system-wide level. In addition to more renewable energy supply, we will also need more networks, more storage, more demand response. However, the questions of “how much” and “where” are the ones that need answering, and this can only be done with some serious system modelling tools that take into account the real technical limitations of our existing grid.
    So, I reckon Finkel will start be calling for a gas reservation policy, to support a policy of a gas-fired bridge to a renewables-heavy future, at an acceptable cost. Make your own prediction about the timelines, but I foresee 2-3 large concentrated solar thermal plants in SA and either NSW or QLD under construction by the end of the decade. Investors just need some certainty (And where are Aus Industry Super Funds on this? Throw some capital at a CST plant you mupppets!)
    The gas lobby will go ballistic about it. Fuck em. They think their industry should thrive while all others go to hell? Fuck em. They will make bold statements about sovereign risk and how it will cripple investment (in gas) and cut into national income. Fuck. Them. They don’t pay their way now, and will try everything to avoid it in the future.

    Will you marry me?

  35. Will you marry me?

    I’ll just run that one past Mrs U…

    I’m sure you will be following the rejigging of the PRRT by Morrison and Turnbull with great interest then.

    Nah, got something better to do. I’ll try to fill you all in tomorrow.

  38. Again with the snark. No wonder I don’t take your comments towards me seriously, you just won’t quit it.

    Psyclaw is a serious troll like bemused, in fact cut from the same humourless and abusive cloth.

    Best bet is to ignore. There are way more intelligent and insightful PBers than those two.

  39. c@tmomma @ #1026 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 10:19 pm

    BiS,
    I think I get you. So how do you think Jacqui Lambie should make me feel?

    As I said, I’m not a Psychologist and I’m not you, but there could be a split personality there, although I’m not sure if it’s you or Lambie. Probably Lambie and your reaction is just a perfectly normal reaction to her inconsistencies. 🙂

  40. LU – Very informative post about energy policy and the pros and cons of each kind of generation in different contexts. Do you think that concentrated solar towers can be built & operated at an economically-viable cost?

  41. Thanks Matt.

    Do you think that concentrated solar towers can be built & operated at an economically-viable cost?

    Depends what we pay them for. If it just their energy, then no, or at least not yet, unless they get some funding support from ARENA and financing from CEFC. However costs are dropping rapidly, but additional engineering challenges are being thrown up, like dust on the heliostats.

    If they also receive some sort of payment for the inertia their turbines provide then maybe; and if the SA govt wanted to pay them for providing (close to) always-on capacity, then a stronger maybe 😉

  42. “concentrated solar towers can be built & operated at an economically-viable cost?”

    Sundrop farms seem to think so. They are actually running their night operations growing stuff right now using stored heat from their solar tower how crazy is that

  43. No surprises Flynn fell on his sword today. It’s been predicted, but in any case, how embarassment for Trump. Not even a month and this.

  45. As we speak there are several investigations into the Trump, Flynn, Russia ties.
    My guess is that the spook detectives have already found several fruitful lines of inquiry and will be well ahead of what has been publicly leaked.

    I doubt that Trump will depart through a technical or legalistic impeachable offence. I think that if /when it happens it’ll be such an OMG thing that no one will seriously try to defend it.

    Russia is the obvious one where the relationships with Trump and his people looks real suss, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t one or two other countries where he is beholden as well. I’m guessing at least one ME mob.

  47. I blame Murdoch for having contributed out of all proportion to the current shite governments in AU, UK and USA. Not only that but for the shit propaganda his organs cynically spread to the masses. I hate that bastard and will rejoice at his demise.

    Sorry just needed to get that off my chest.

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