BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. Looks like the NSW Tories are going to take a pounding with the decision to push ahead with metropolitan council amalgamations while backing off on the regional ones. Its all about boosting developers and Baird is looking more like a cut n run merchant.

    The shine will come off Berejiklian pretty quick at this rate – particularly with the number of by-elections coming.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-gladys-berejiklian-prepares-for-north-shore-byelection-backlash-over-mergers-20170214-gucjy7.html

  2. antonbruckner11 @ #946 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 6:18 pm

    So that means he’s gonna have to tap-dance on this issue for 18 months. Good luck with that.

    No worries. Just another 5 parts per million C02 added to the atmosphere while Mal defends his PMship at all costs. I mean, we have a whole 100-odd ppm to go before we get to catastrophic levels, right? Say 20 years or so (since the rate of growth increases every year) – that’s plenty of time to do something about it, surely?

  3. Antonbruckner11
    Labor is going to have to push renewables with more conviction. Renewables are very popular in the community, particularly household solar. This is also starting to make a big difference on hot days, saving NSW’s skin on Saturday.
    Labor could start by offering to increase the feed-in tariffs for solar PV – including batteries in the mix. This may be a state issue, but the Commonwealth should work with the States on this.)
    No one is going to finance a new coal fired power station – unless it’s the Coalition, despite the advice of commentators like Graham Richardson who are either lying, in an ideological fug, or don’t understand the relative costs of new coal versus solar.
    Google

    Labor’s ignorance on electricity affordability is paving the way for electoral massacre

    If there’s going to be a massacre, it should be the proponents of “clean coal” economics.
    If Shorten came out with some sound policies on household solar in particular, he could fix his personal ratings and a big chunk of the storage issue.
    There are plenty of people who are intending to invest in solar plus batteries. It there was a decent feed-in tariff it would become a no-brainer.
    If it requires further upgrading of the network and metering, then do it, even if it requires putting a gun to the head of the network operators.

  4. trog sorrenson @ #954 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 6:35 pm

    This is also starting to make a big difference on hot days, saving NSW’s skin on Saturday.

    Sheesh! What saved NSW’s “skin” was the dumping of aluminium smelting for the day. Also, while it didn’t seem to get reported (at least I didn’t see any reports) there actually was load shedding – 2 regions that I know of had hour long blackouts, both attributed to “faults”. Very handy, that.

  5. trog sorrenson @ #957 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 6:43 pm

    A detailed analysis of the contribution of solar.
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-saved-the-day-but-households-got-paid-a-pittance-27844/

    And just for a change … a dose of reality – http://www.afr.com/news/newcastles-tomago-smelter-braces-for-possible-catastrophe-20170210-gua1l4

    The Tomago smelter draws 12 per cent of NSW’s power and its sacrifice appeared to have averted wider outages in the NSW grid.

  6. A great quote in the comments section of KK’s article

    “‘Now does he feel his title
    hang loose about him, like a giant’s robe
    upon a dwarfish thief’
    .

  7. Sorry if this has already been posted. Alternative facts rule in the IPA.

    Finkel’s crime appears to be not to have wholeheartedly embraced new coal technology, and to write that there are ready solutions to the challenge of high penetration of renewable energy, they just need to be adopted and the market re-fashioned.

    Leading the attack against him is former Institute of Public Affairs head of regulatory affairs, Alan Moran, with this article in the right-wing Quadrant journal. https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2017/02/loon-turn-blackout/
    Amazingly, it attacks Finkel’s background as an electrical engineer.

    “Finkel, an electrical engineer with no background in electricity markets, was commissioned to report on the future security of the electricity market,” writes Moran, one of the fiercest critics of renewable energy.

    “His preliminary report is so ill-grounded on facts and so peppered with fanciful assumptions that a government taking the advice would further grind the economy into the ground.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/conservatives-attack-chief-scientist-for-failing-to-toe-fossil-fuel-line-79285/

  8. “What saved NSW’s “skin” was the dumping of aluminium smelting for the day. Also, while it didn’t seem to get reported (at least I didn’t see any reports) there actually was load shedding – 2 regions that I know of had hour long blackouts, both attributed to “faults””

    So NSW coal-based power supply was inadequate on Saturday. ROTFL 🙂
    So to make it reliable, they should phase out the coal plants. Even better, phase out Morrison, Joyce, Frydenberg, Turnbull and their pet rocks.

  9. Sharia law is not an issue in Australia so why is that Unicorn being pulled out of the cupboard? In Australia Cannon law is an issue.

    There are three major Abraham religions Judaism, Christianity and Islam. It would seem the older the break the bigger the argument.

  10. The IPA should stop listening to their own crap and start listening to people that know what they are talking about.

    If they did that what use would they be to their secret donors?


  11. Player One
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 6:53 pm

    The Tomago smelter draws 12 per cent of NSW’s power and its sacrifice appeared to have averted wider outages in the NSW grid.

    NSW in a coal state; so how does this support you nonsense?


  12. Barney in Saigon
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 6:36 pm
    …..
    I think you’re being unkind to Kristina Keneally by lumping her into a general pile called “the press”.

    True

  13. DAVE – I haven’t watched much of Gladys, but when she said, at her press conference: “To be honest, hand on heart, I have to admit …” I thought, she’s not gonna cut it. Now she’s decided that she’s going to help out her country bumpkin mates and screw people in the city. Talking about adding insult to injury.

  14. Frednk

    “In Australia Cannon law is an issue.”

    You got it in one.

    And as noted at the Royal Comm today in general reference to documents ex the Rome Curia, not one woman participates in the writing of the rules and advices.

    On the matter of the RC, today for the first time I heard the public gallery applaud on 3 occasions. All 3 occasions were when a Franciscan ( one of the most sensible, human and humane speakers I’ve heard at the RC) commented on the evidence of a nun, Sr Lydia Allen RSM (a Yank working here).

    Sr Allen spoke the most ridiculous, nonsensical, crap I have heard from anyone at the RC, including that homosexuals and paedofiles are often one and the same.

    In favourably justifying some aspects of Canon Law, she argued that Cannon Law was correct because it is based on the “natural order”. Homosexuality was the actual topic, and there are no homosexuals in nature, says she. The reason, says she, is that God created the masculine and the feminine, period.

    She BTW is the recruiter/gatekeeper for the Holy Spirit Seminary in Sydney, and one of her tasks (with documented orders from Rome) is to keep out (note…. “is to keep out” and not “was to keep out” …. her role is current and ongoing) “deeply seated homosexuals”. The Commissioners tried at length to get her to explain the difference between “deeply seated”, and “not deeply seated homosexuals” …. she kept talking, but it was all nonsense.

    I suspect that the reason she was given so much time was that all the 5 Commissioners who were present were happy to allow her to build up their file “examples of stupid people in authority in the Catholic church”.


  15. Player One
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 7:39 pm

    frednk @ #975 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 7:33 pm

    NSW in a coal state; so how does this support you nonsense?

    \What part didn’t you understand? I’ll try to type slower.

    Oh let me try; NSW had to load shed because the relied on coal and there was not enough solar installed?

  16. That reset button must be just about burnt out, surely ?
    SBS news, wtte that Trunbull is desperate for a legislative win to hit the reset button for the new year.
    By the time Labor get back into government, the button will be near buggered, and one use will break it.

  17. Boerwar
    Thank you for the spelling correction; feel free to use the extra n as you wish. If you have any spare r’s could you send them over so I can spell your as your instead of you.

  18. The Abbott/Turnbull governments gutted hundreds of millions from Indigenous programs, foisted Mundine on all of us, and continue to inflict that serial incompetent, blame shifter and liar Scullion as Minister for Indigenous Affairs.
    And today we had the Empty Suit mewling platitudes and empathy about closing the gap.
    Arsehole.

  19. frednk @ #982 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 7:44 pm

    Oh let me try; NSW had to load shed because the relied on coal and there was not enough solar installed?

    NSW didn’t have enough power – of any description. NSW uses coal, gas and various renewables. It’s as silly to pick one and blame it as it is to pick one and say “it saved the day”.

  20. You know, I was listening to that Neil Mitchell takedown of Pauline Hanson and it just occurred to me that if we want to see our hopes realised and the politicians who are miscreants exposed for what they are, a fact which is obvious to us but maybe not so much to others who do not have so much energy invested in politics, then we have to pin our hopes to announcers like Neil Mitchell.

    As much as we may have our issues with Mitchell himself, and others like him, it is only as and when his type connects with a vast swathe of the electorate that, like a school of fish or a flock of birds, the turning occurs. Or begins to occur.

    I say this with a heavy heart as those same people just don’t seem to want to listen to what the vast majority of politicians have to say any more and believe it to be true.

  21. Sadly Neil Mitchell broadcasts in Melbourne, the constituency in Australia least likely to buy Hanson’s nonsense. I can’t see his Sydney counterparts following suit.

  22. P1,

    You are actually a moderate with a reasoned approach to most issues.
    You have a few kinks. But, hey who doesn’t?
    I’m a Catholic.
    Cheers.

  23. Last Night @ 11.18pm

    “Jacqui Lambie makes me feel bipolar, fair dinkum! One minute I am nodding my head in agreement. Next minute I want to clock her!”

    I thought that the ignorance shown by those on PB who use mental illness as a metaphor, figure of speech, or rhetorical flourish was satisfactorily dealt with a couple of weeks back.

    Apparently not.

    Further it is not a characteristic of Bipolar Disorder that sufferers experience urges to “clock people”. Nor is one of the manifestations of the disorder that they fluctuate between agreeing and not agreeing with others.

    For the record, Bipolar Disorder is characterised by mood fluctuations between very depressed and very alert and hyperactive (manic). Extremes at both end of the scale can result in a depressive psychosis or a manic psychosis.

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