BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. Guytaur

    As usual you do have a very simplistic analysis. Things are not black and white. All I can say that so many of your pronouncements are totally inaccurate.
    I have been connected dots from so many angles and your pov is not one I share

  2. Victoria

    Yes it is that black and white. Comey like Hoover has directly interfered in an election and ensured a Trump victory.

    Thats the consequence of his actions. It is that black and white he is no hero unless you think Trump is a great President.

  3. Who’s going to impose Sharia law in Australia?

    The hordes of scary, scary Muslims, I assume.

    I’d almost like Lambie were it not for her denialist views on climate change.

    You seem to be forgetting her insane, not-based-in-reality, views on Islam.

  4. Can’t get my head around such a sharp drop in Shorten’s approval! I hope it just comes down to a rough sample for Labor because otherwise I find it hard to explain.

  5. I don’t have a problem with the coalition going on about Labor leadership ‘tensions’, though I wish they would answer the question.
    It just reminds everyone of their own real problems.

  6. Matt31 – It’s been pretty hard to cut through as the Liberal omnishambles bus rolls on. Also, I think that its VERY hard for any political leader of the major parties to get a good personal rating these days. Even the sainted Gough would have trouble. There is a tremendous anger at the major parties and politicians in general.
    Still, Shorten improved his rating significantly at the last election and will do so at the next one.

  7. @Matt31 – both Turnbull’s and Shorten’s drop in netsats are explained by Turnbull’s mudslinging. It’s generally considered a poor political play because at best, even if you don’t get caught out for lying (as MT did after this poll was taken) you damage your own reputation alongside the target and just benefit minor parties and those in your own backbench that want you gone.

    For MT, the risky play was worth it because he was out of good options.

  8. VE – I wonder if it’s broader than that. The disenchantment with Turnbull (the huge crash in his support) has led to a wider disenchantment with the political system and the major politicians. Shorten gets tainted by that.

  9. For MT, the risky play was worth it because he was out of good options.

    And because his netsat is now better than Shorten’s, where it wasn’t previously.

  10. I think Shorten’s affected by the ‘they’re all the same’ bullshit propagated by the media in the wake of Dear Leader’s personal attack.
    Of course Shorten and Labor aren’t in the same ballpark when it comes to personal abuse, but never let reality get in the way of a good anti ALP meme.

  11. AR – But Turnbull is the PM. His netsat is far more important than Shorten’s. So it’s no good trashing his to trash shortens.

  12. I’m still browsing this thread at the 10 am posts, which seem to be very concerned by Trump vs intel services, The whole thing seems like the sort of games played in the Berlin Bunker in 1945. There are NO good guys here.
    Remember 1975, and the role played by the CIA in Whitlam’s downfall (helped by the incredible naivety of some Labor ministers).
    Whatever we think of Trump, he is an ELECTED office bearer, which the CIA etc are not!
    Impeach him, if you can, but remember Pence would take over! (Those with long memories will recall that moves to impeach Nixon only got underway after Spiro Agnew was removed).
    BTW the series of ‘Hitler Bunker Rants’ parodies on YouTube are comedic gold.

  13. The first domino falls; Flynn resigns.

    Good. What I wonder is, do the intelligence agencies have dirt against Trump which they leveraged in order to make this “resignation” happen; and if so, what is it?

  14. The Labor leadership team may need to recalibrate some of their tactics in dealing with this newly aggressive PM. I would think the low key approach of the Abbott years would be an ideal template.

    But policy trumps all. Labor was able to gain advantage, and Shorten improve his standing last year with the release of strong Labor policy. This morning we saw Paul Bongiorno mention in his article that Labor strategists are working towards an energy policy with the slogan “cheaper energy with less pollution”.

    This is a simple, effective policy and communication strategy that will comfortably see Labor to government. Regardless of any PPM figures.

  15. matt31 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 3:10 pm

    The first domino falls; Flynn resigns. What a mess!

    ********************************

    On Politico :

    In a bid to save his position, one West Wing source said Flynn had been in “full groveling mode,” hoping a show of contrition may enable him to survive, especially if “a suitable replacement doesn’t emerge quickly.”

    According to the source, Flynn’s allies tried to convince Trump that making a switch less than a month into his presidency will “look like an admission he made a mistake.”

    There is some talk of Flynns replacement being David Petraeus …. but he was passed over in part because of his 2015 conviction for mishandling classified information.

    Like you say Matt – what a mess …… but may just be the start of things to come
    ……

  16. “Who’s going to impose Sharia law in Australia?”

    Sharia is not what a lot of people think it is. It’s not fundamentalist Islam, and it’s not jihadism. It’s law guided by the tenets of Islam, plus tradition. A lot of sharia actually pre-dates Islam.
    When Yassmin said she followed sharia, a lot of people (Lambie included) started frothing at the mouth. But it’s really no BFD.

  17. Good afternoon all,

    ATM you could have Santa Claus as the LOTO or even PM and he would have negative stats.

    When Tony Abbott became opposition leader in 2009 the rot began and the loss of faith in the political system was put into hypo drive.

    Abbott slashed and burned his way through every political convention there was to destroy the Gillard government. Collateral damage to the whole system wad a small price for Abbott to pay to become PM.

    The effects of the Abbott strategy are on full show today and are now blowing back onto the government as well as labor and Shorten.

    The PPM stats and even net satisfaction stats are now of less significance than they have ever been and are not the main game. No leader of the two main parties would be popular in this new age political environment.

    Cheers.

  18. The drop in 2pp for ALP is, to my thinking, a reaction that MT has suddenly found a couple of vertibrae. The media shills gave him a big tick regardless of the vacuousness of the content. The sheep take that as gospel.

    Give it a week or two.

  19. matt31
    Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 3:10 pm
    The first domino falls; Flynn resigns. What a mess!

    ******************************************

    I doubt that Flynn would have had the authority to tell the Russians sanctions would be lifted – so it seems logical to me that he was told by his *bosses* to make that call which would mean they are all in on it *( Trump/Pence )*

    There’s a lot more to this than has been uncovered/revealed to date ……. I just hope the whole TRUTH will come out …..

  20. Whatever we think of Trump, he is an ELECTED office bearer

    To hell with that. Trump doesn’t have a shred of legitimacy as an elected office bearer when there were 3 million more members of the electorate who actually voted to elect someone else.

  21. Doyley – And the electorate got even more disheartened after they thought Malcolm would be their saviour and he proved to be a total fizza.

  22. Turnbull and many of his ‘colleagues’ behind him are clutching their knives and continuing to count the increasing number of losing Newspoll’s on the trot.

    Newspoll is doing its work and thats is what is being watched and calculations made about how longer trunbull holds the job.

    No wonder turnbull wants to talk to his ‘colleagues’ one on one.

    Good luck with that.

    Then there are the ones on his own side determined to bring about trunbull’s downfall.

  23. Learned that the “bloke” I admired talking about NDIS on 24 this morning is paralympian Kurt Fearnley. He deserves my acknowledgement, even if a bit late.

  24. I would have thought a few of the redneck right might like some aspects of sharia law, capital punishment and cutting the hands off thieves and the like.

  25. Flynn was once a frickin Lieutenant-General. That’s three stars. He shouldn’t be grovelling to anyone.
    But now he’s been sacked, he might really spill the beans.

  26. Joyce_Karam: Key moment of Mike Flynn in 2016 was calling to jail Hillary Clinton. He leaves office after 24 days under investigation for ties to Russia

  27. Keep an eye on the last question of QT. . The Member for Hunter asked Barnaby if and when he knew about the proposed forced acquisition of prime agricultural land in Shoalbay and Townsville prior to the last election. The Speaker quickly tried to rule the question out of order. There was some solid debate and POOs over it.
    Barnaby, Michelle Landry, Sen Cavanagh and co were banging the drums up here about how the $1 billion proposed expansion of the defence facility would create a zillion jobs up here and be the best thing since slice bread.
    When the locals discovered that their lands were going to be taken over they declared war. More than fresh air hit the fans big time.
    Fast forward – Landry, Barnaby and Co declared that they were not aware of the forced acquisitions and would look into it (backpeddling 100kph).
    Landry (Capricornia) had it in her election promos, the 1 billion expansions.
    From what I saw in QT I think Barnaby might be about to be put in witness protection. Watch this space, I don’t think we have heard the last of this.
    There are a lot of players involved.

  28. Desert Qlder

    “Jacqui Lambie is a useful idiot.”

    Great description. And she is probably more honest, more reliable, more predictable in her idjitness than Hanson.

    And while ever she criticises and shines a light on Hanson, and stirs Hanson up, good!

  29. Its a CNN claim so maybe BS but maybe not.

    Nah. CNN is one of the more reputable outlets. They’re not going to drop a major Trump-related story unless they’ve got the facts to back it up.

  30. From this morning. The federal portion of the QLD galaxy poll (they do this at the same time as they do the state level polling), note this time the sample size & polling date is mentioned.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-needs-pauline-hanson-to-stay-in-power-galaxy-poll/news-story/bd637a291eb9c777f8154e73032319b8

    Malcolm Turnbull needs Pauline Hanson to stay in power: Galaxy poll
    Renee Viellaris, The Courier-Mail
    February 14, 2017 1:00am

    PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull faces relying on Pauline Hanson to stay in power, as a new poll reveals his ever-shrinking Queensland vote is at the mercy of One Nation.

    Support for the Turnbull Government in Queensland has slipped to 35 per cent, down a whopping eight points since last year’s election.

    The Hanson juggernaut’s primary vote has skyrocketed since the election from 5.5 per cent to 18 per cent in the latest Galaxy poll, taken exclusively for The Courier-Mail on February 8-9.

    The sample of 867 voters was taken on, and the day after, the Prime Minister delivered Bill Shorten a much-heralded verbal uppercut.

    It is widely thought that to win The Lodge, political parties need to win Queensland.

    Preferences based on the July election would give Mr Turnbull a narrow two-party-preferred win of 51-49.

    However, his success would be dependent on the preference flow from One Nation.

    The poll also reinforces bad news for Mr Shorten, with Labor’s primary vote falling from 30.9 per cent to 29 per cent. The Greens have also lost slight ground (8.8 per cent to 8 per cent).

    If an election were held today, Independents would win 10 per cent of the primary vote.

  31. Flynn does not seem to have the brains to realize that he was actually breaking the law when he was dicking on about busting the sanctions inside the Russian embassy.
    By telling others he implicated THEM as well.

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