BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  1. ‘.@PaulineHansonOz says @billshortenmp often requests meetings with her to pick her ‘brain about policies.’

    Or for a bit of comic relief.

  2. Shanahan with his own bit of alternate facts delusion:

    Labor delusional on power claims
    DENNIS SHANAHAN
    Accusations that Malcolm Turnbull ‘lied’ about blackouts don’t even deserve to be called ‘alternative facts’.

  3. Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 52m52 minutes ago
    tfw when you thank the gods you don’t watch Q&A.

    Yep last night’s show descended into farce, and as I’d suspected it would, turned into the Jacqui Lambie Show.

  6. Rod_Hagen ‏@Rod_Hagen · 42m42 minutes ago

    The simple reality is PM Abbott never did really “spend a week in a remote Indigenous community”.

  7. New analysis has found that nearly half (47%) of the mammals and nearly a quarter (24.4%) of the birds on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list of threatened species are negatively impacted by climate change – a total of about 700 species. Previous assessments had said only 7% of listed mammals and 4% of birds were impacted.
    …
    Most researchers tended to assess the impact of climate change on one species or ecosystem, and often cast forward 50 or 100 years, ignoring the fact the climate is already altered, said Watson. “I think that’s a real problem with how the scientific community has communicated the issue, because people are always labelling it as a future threat. When you combine the evidence, the impact on species is already really dramatic.”

    Act now, beg the scientists. Does anyone believe that coal worshippers like Frydenberg and Morrison, or dullards like Ciobo, give a monkey’s uncle about environmental diversity?

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/13/act-before-entire-species-lost-global-warming-say-scientists?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  8. ‘Malcolm Turnbull has done the Coalition a service by forcing them to confront policy differences…’

    It would be a very short story. The solution he has for any policy difference is to capitulate to the most extreme ideologue in the party.

  9. Hopefully business (including the coal fired generators) will keep the pressure on Turnbull over renewables until he is forced to cave in:

    Energy Australia has joined the chorus of big business, unions, welfare and environmental groups calling for an end to Canberra’s blame game over renewables.

    “I am worried about our customers and what will happen with their bills,” Energy Australia’s managing director Catherine Tanna told The Business.

    “We’ve seen that customers over the weekend in some places in Australia used 25 per cent more than usual.

    “In a couple of months when these bills turn up they are going to get a surprise and I am worried about that because I know that the cost of living is a concern for them.”

    The solution to high prices, she said, was a national plan to transition to the future of energy into renewables.

    Energy Australia, which is one of the country’s largest operators of coal-fired power stations, took the unprecedented move of taking out a full-page advertisement in a national broadsheet declaring its support for a non-partisan push for clean energy.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-14/energy-australia-boss-worried-about-power-bills/8267070

  10. lizzie @ #656 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 8:31 am

    Rod_Hagen ‏@Rod_Hagen · 42m42 minutes ago
    The simple reality is PM Abbott never did really “spend a week in a remote Indigenous community”.

    Quite right. The bastard and his entourage of suckholes spent a little time swanning about in comparative luxury while pretending to be supporters of Indigenous culture and community and importing supplies instead of using local businesses. Effing mongrels ❗
    I get a little angry about the reporting of this at the time. “Once upon a time ……….”.

  11. It will be highly amusing if the WA Libs have p*ssed off the Nats for no gain —

    ‘Several WA One Nation candidates say they will refuse to preference the Liberal Party, contrary to a statewide deal announced on the weekend.’

    ‘…High-profile One Nation candidate Margaret Dodd, who is contesting the Liberal-held seat of Scarborough for One Nation and is the mother of murdered teenager Hayley Dodd, today condemned the decision and accused the party of bullying its candidates.’

    ‘”I will make my own choices on who I will give my preferences to, and it certainly will not be the Liberal party,” she said.’

    ‘..”We all know that Liberals want to sell off Western Power. One Nation doesn’t, so what the hell is going on?

    “I encourage other members of One Nation to stand up, do not be bullied and do not be dictated to.
    “I will not be part of a dictatorship.”‘

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/one-nation-candidate-refuses-to-preference-liberals-wa-election/8265354?pfmredir=sm

  12. Rat, I was having a crack at the press galleries turd polishing abilities.
    Surely they can find something positive out of this.

    And from earlier, yes PHONs rise has hurt the government more than Labor, I don’t see how she can decry the socialist policies but then claim she is a source of preferences and policy advice.

  13. darc @ #655 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 8:30 am

    BK, after that effort you need to have a Bex and a good lie down. Bravo!

    Not today. I’ve just finished my chores with the animals and am now waiting for a one hour phone call from the federal government in the form of an interview of me as a referee for an applicant for a job that needs a high level security clearance. Then it’s out with the chainsaw to do some “pruning”.
    Then I’ll sit down.

  14. Zoomster – what happens when Lib pollworkers turn up and try to hand out ON htvs in seats where the ON candidates oppose a preference swap? This could get pretty crazy.

  16. The Nick Xenophon Team has announced it will not support the Federal Government’s package of changes to child care and welfare benefits.

    Without the support of the three Nick Xenophon Team senators from South Australia, the bill needs the support of the Greens to pass the Upper House.

    A chance for Di Natale to be relevant again?

  17. Very odd for the One Nation candidates to be refusing to obey orders from above BEFORE the election. Usually they wait at least 3 minutes after polls have closed.

  19. After I have had my Telstra “Bundle” bedded in and given a cup of tea and a biscuit, I found that my old “pay as you go”mobile phone number was still active.

    This was no problem as I had something like $438 dollars accumulated credit.
    Then yesterday came recharge day when the new number (which necessitates the purchase of new business cards) – big problem – new number not active.
    Connect to Telstra chat, which is an interactive computer means of communication which I have found useful because of partial deafness.
    The usual rigmarole:-
    Telstra still has my name spelled wrongly, I am still living across the street and am probably moving house.
    I will die, I suppose, being the only “Kenith” in captivity; never mind it abbreviates nicely to “Ken” or even KayJay.
    Time for fresh cup of coffee and morning medication (blood pressure etc – no sedatives – those probably required after BK’s list of LNP and PHON bastardry).
    Telstra has me take out the SIM from mobile phone and check the number. All OK.
    Attempt phone call, attempt text. NoCanDo ❗
    Very mysterious.
    I ask will cancelling PrePaid number sort out the problem. No said delightful Telstra person.
    Hmmm, I will pass you on to the other team which handles difficult cases such as yours.
    Same ritual with next team, first and last name, DOB and email address.
    Round and round we go. Phone still not working. Phone gives me informative message “unable to connect to this number from your service”. Big surprise for me.
    After another transfer to a different team I am advised to take the phone and myself to the nearest Telstra store.
    Dammit ❗
    I then put the SIM in another device and, you guessed it, my sole and comforting reader, I can make phone calls and send texts.
    Use second device to send text to favourite daughter; that I need to attend Telstra store and she responds “will 3 P.M. suit?”
    In the meanwhile I have reset my nice, not so smart phone, which I quite like, having made hours of phone calls to Canberra from Newcastle recently.
    I am now absolutely sure that the people who, over the years, have told me clever things such as “you dumb bastard” and “you’re not as smart as you think you are” and other less savory things, were right (please arrange punctuation to suit).
    Evidence for this (apart from all my grown up life) the following:-
    Youtube view of Samsung model x having SIM changed.
    KayJay views with dawning comprehension.
    I must keep this secret, I think. What if the favourite daughters discover that I’m too dumb to change a SIM in a phone. More comprehension – they already know.
    Dammit, Cynthia. Looks as though you’ll have to take the blame for this effup.
    What I though was the SIM in the phone was a memory card, the SIM, cleverly coloured white was brilliantly camouflaged underneath the memory card.
    The embarrassment. I sort through the assorted detritus on what passes for my computer desk and find the carrier for the SIM and insert it into the phone.
    Success
    I start to setup the phone again with contacts, phone numbers, adblock etc.
    Favourite daughter arrives. I give her good news about phone and proceed to local shopping centre with her (although only to sneer at Telstra store in passing).
    The local shopping centre trip was an adventure in itself, best left for another time.
    Best thing about the shopping centre was all the kids, from backgrounds all over the world, busy being kids.
    A pleasant, cool, day in Newcastle. A good day to finish what I can of my fencing – just a couple of hex screws.
    More mowing. Hurrah, hurrah ❗
    BK – if you have to vet me would you please make appropriate allowances for my belief that all pommies LNP and PHON are bastards ❓

  20. Alan Davis

    That’s a pretty sad family history, especially that your dad died so terribly, so young.

    It’s quite amazing that black lung is still attacking miners today.

    I guess you will have followed the media reports about the skullduggery and incompetence of the various Qld authorities responsible for (not) dealing with black lung monitoring and prevention.

    The mining industry throughout the world is often unconscionable.

  21. “Yep last night’s show descended into farce, and as I’d suspected it would, turned into the Jacqui Lambie Show.”

    Must’ve been on a different channel to Lizzie and me.

  22. Voice Endeavour @ 8.48am

    So true.

    That PHON lady in WA onTV saying her party won’t tell her what to do was a great joy to watch. Comes from Hanson’s operatives wandering around the country asking “who wants to be a parliamentarian?” (can’t be a politician if in PHON!!!!) and every eccentric with an axe to grind says “pick me! pick me!”

  23. How dumb is Morrison. Any opposition party or senator that gave into his blackmail would never be able to oppose anything again. So, of course, they are going to oppose it. So he is flat-out nasty for no reason, other than the fun of being nasty.

  25. From Simon Benson’s article in the GG, the government when negotiating with Xenophon will say if you want more money/jobs for South Australian, back our company tax plan or else.
    I wonder how he will respond.

    Also Shanahan digs deep saying events in the last week have increased the pressure on Labor re it’s energy policies.

  26. A
    Coalforbrains Morrison is doing a rinse and repeat of the blackmail tradeoff deal he did on his Christmas Island child prisoners.
    Muir (and others) bought the deal out of compassion for the kids and then subsequently complained that Morrison failed to deliver on his part of the deal.

  27. Rat, I was having a crack at the press galleries turd polishing abilities.
    Surely they can find something positive out of this.

    apologies.
    [/makes coffee to wake up properly]

  28. This is just incredible from Trump Land.

    What was happening – as first reported by CNN – was an extraordinary moment, as Trump and Abe turned their dinner table into an open-air situation room. Aides and translators surrounded the two leaders as other diners chatted and gawked around them, with staffers using the flashlights on their mobile phones to illuminate documents on the darkened outdoor terrace.

    The scene of their discussion, Trump’s club, has been called “The Winter White House” by the president’s aides.

    But it is very different than the actual White House, where security is tight and people coming in are tightly screened. Trump’s club, by contrast, has hundreds of paying members who come and go, and it can be rented out for huge galas and other events open to non-members. On the night of the North Korea launch, for instance, there was a wedding reception going on: CNN reported that Trump dropped by, with Abe in tow.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trumps-meeting-on-north-korean-missile-launch-photographed-shared-on-facebook-20170213-guc50u.html

  30. ‘Several WA One Nation candidates say they will refuse to preference the Liberal Party, contrary to a statewide deal announced on the weekend.’

    This is the ongoing problem for PHON. Time and time again the candidates (or MPs/Senators if elected) refuse to do as they are told and go off in a huff or are booted out.

    What can Hanson/Ashby expect when PHON recruits a ragtag bunch of nutters, each with their own warped view of the world? They are all individualists who will do what they want. They are not the sort of people who conform to the norms of a civilised society or to the discipline of a party organisation.

    Therein lies the problem for Hanson and Ashby. PHON will ultimately self destruct yet again as its individual members go their own non-conformist ways. Hanson has made one successful comeback but as she gets older the chance of any further comeback becomes more and more unlikely.

  31. What a fragrant thought. She couldn’t do worse than Barnaby 😉

    Kate M
    ‏@ComissionerKate
    Perhaps the Libs are considering a new coalition? The Liberal Hanson Party perhaps with Pauline as Deputy PM?

  32. ‘Labor in Power – It’s all Labor’s fault;
    Liberals in Power – People are tired of the political antics of both parties.’

    This is not just Kenny, but the media in general.

    Listening to Mark Butler patiently and blandly respond to Sabra Lane’s inane and repetitious questioning made me realise how feeble Labor can be sometimes.

    Someone needs to fire up, show some passion and conviction, and stop taking shit from gormless journalists, as though it was part of their employment contract.

  33. Fess

    There are so many incredible threads to the Trump imbroglio. So Far all questions directed to Trump and Pence re Nat sec Advisor Flynn have gone unanswered. Save to say that apparently Trump has full confidence in him and Flynn himself says he will not resign or is going to be sacked,
    My question now is since this grenade lobbed at them by the intell agencies has gone without consequence, what will be lobbed next by them. Watch this space I guess

  36. Ah I just saw this……..

    CBS News‏ @CBSNews

    NEW: Pres. Trump is “evaluating the situation” with National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, according to statement from @PressSec.
    Embedded
    9:23 AM · Feb 14, 2017

  37. victoria Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:39 am
    Fess
    There are so many incredible threads to the Trump imbroglio. So Far all questions directed to Trump and Pence re Nat sec Advisor Flynn have gone unanswered. Save to say that apparently Trump has full confidence in him and Flynn himself says he will not resign or is going to be sacked,

    ********************************************
    Trump evaluating national security adviser Flynn’s situation: White House

    A statement from White House press secretary Sean Spicer, read to reporters crowded around his office, suggested that the review into Flynn’s activities stretched beyond the conversations he had with Russian officials before Trump took office on Jan. 20.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/02/trump-evaluating-national-security-adviser-flynns-situation-white-house/

  38. Fess

    My view is that the intell agencies currently have a great deal of info regarding the Trump imbroglio, and what is being played out at present could be likened to a game of chess or perhaps poker.

  41. Scientists have discovered “extraordinary” levels of toxic pollution in the most remote and inaccessible place on the planet – the 10km deep Mariana trench in the Pacific Ocean.

    Small crustaceans that live in the pitch-black waters of the trench, captured by a robotic submarine, were contaminated with 50 times more toxic chemicals than crabs that survive in heavily polluted rivers in China.

    “We still think of the deep ocean as being this remote and pristine realm, safe from human impact, but our research shows that, sadly, this could not be further from the truth,” said Alan Jamieson of Newcastle University in the UK, who led the research.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/13/extraordinary-levels-of-toxic-pollution-found-in-10km-deep-mariana-trench?CMP=share_btn_tw

  42. victoria Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:57 am

    PhoenixRed

    Thanks.

    ****************************************
    I wonder how much a ‘patriot’ Flynn is, Victoria ????? ……. if he goes down – gets fired – will he take ‘others’ down with him – or does he use it as a threat to save his arse ????

  43. I hate posting about Trump, but this was worth it as a measure of the man.

    Why can’t Donald Trump just shake hands like a regular person? Instead of the simple clutch of palms that humans have used for ages to demonstrate friendship, Trump jerks and pulls hard on people’s arms, almost knocking them off balance.

    His handshake with Judge Neil Gorsuch, Trump’s own nominee for the supreme court, went this way. And it’s a good thing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was already seated when they greeted each other for the cameras.

    I have no idea how large Trump’s hands really are, but his handshakes are small, hyper-masculine demonstrations of strength, as if he’s afraid even of the decorum of equality that a handshake brings. With this bizarre behavior, Trump turns basic social etiquette into a weird exercise of authority, giving us one lens through which we can see this president’s style of leadership.

    Every president has a leadership style. Jimmy Carter’s style was a folksy friendly, prez-in-a-sweater kind of thing. Ronald Reagan may have been a dyed-in-the-wool cold warrior, but he was always so damn cheery about it. Bill Clinton was constantly trying to seduce people to his policies – and maybe other things. George H W Bush brilliantly mastered having no style whatsoever, while his son had all the swagger and intelligence of a cowboy hat. Barack Obama was, of course, Professor Cool.

    And Donald Trump? His clumsy leadership style seems oriented around the goal of convincing us that the United States is on the brink of every kind of collapse imaginable – except for climate change, which obviously is a “hoax”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/13/donald-trumps-handshake-strong-grip-weak?CMP=share_btn_tw

  44. phoenixRed

    I have been following John Schindler from the Observer and Rick Wilson who writes for the daily beast and in their tweets they refer to Flynn as MoscowMike!

    From my own observations, I have yet to decide if Mike Pence is also a traitor or merely a useful idiot. So it will be interesting to see how the Flynn aspect of proceedings go.

  45. According to Shanahan in the GG the power problems in NSW and Qld are due to Labor’s renewable energy policy, anyone who says different is peddling fake news.

  46. Tuesday, February 14, 2017 — RMIT University and ABC News have partnered to relaunch award-winning news service Fact Check, to be based in Melbourne at the University’s new state-of-the-art Media Precinct.

    From March, RMIT ABC Fact Check will once again test and adjudicate on the accuracy of claims made by politicians, public figures, advocacy groups and institutions engaged in public debate.

    https://tv.press.abc.net.au/rmit-and-abc-news-relaunch-fact-check#

  48. Lizzie

    I am following the Trump saga closely, as it obviously has national security implications that affect us and everyone else. It also will affect our own body politic. I am sure that if Trump goes down as President due to nefarious behaviour, the right wing nut idiots currently inhabiting our parliament will take a huge hit

  49. Lizzie

    appreciate the RMIT and ABC news. My younger daughter is currently a student at RMIT, and older daughter has just decided to undertake her Masters there as well!

  50. “Victoria Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 9:54 am
    My view is that the intell agencies currently have a great deal of info regarding the Trump imbroglio, and what is being played out at present could be likened to a game of chess or perhaps poker.”

    I was having dinner with a chess player and there was a check tablecloth. It took him two hours to pass me the salt.

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