BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record incremental movement to Labor on two-party preferred, and One Nation on the primary vote.

The return of Newspoll, along with the usual weekly result from Essential Research, has docked both major parties slightly on the primary vote, with One Nation continuing to go onward and upward. The difference on two-party preferred is slightly in favour of Labor, who also pick up one in Queensland on the seat projection. Leadership ratings from Newspoll send both leaders downward on net satisfaction, with no change on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,048 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  3. Alan Davis.
    Thatcis a tragic personal history and I agree. Coal should be left right where it is.
    Have you thought about writing a story about that history. I believe it is valuable social history too, and should not be forgotten.

  4. Victoria

    I do hope that RMIT factcheck is higher quality than Barron’s version. I’m sure it will be, if not ‘polluted’ by influence from ABC. It’s not that I don’t support the ABC, but they have been cowed by Mal’s Malignency.

  8. I wandered through the Harrods London store today. In the wine area, I took some photos of the famous Cristal. I also had a nice chat with the wine sales attendant about Australian wine regions. We consulted the large display world map of wine regions they stocked from, all backlight behind glass. To my amusement and his horror, we both realised Barossa Valley (in South Australia) was spelled ‘Barrosa’ Valley.
    I have photographic proof!

  10. How can Trump refuse to disclose his income tax situation? Every other modern president has done it.

    No other modern president has had business ties to Russia.

  11. ‘TT – The big question is: why shouldn’t malcolm disclose his. It’s an absolute scandal that he hasn’t.’

    As someone said the other day Dear Leader and Tones are miles ahead of Trump, largely without the negative publicity. We don’t really do journalism in this country with a few notable exceptions.

  12. citizen @ #659 Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 8:39 am

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-14/energy-australia-boss-worried-about-power-bills/8267070

    Oh dear! Did you watch the video embedded in that link? Here is what the Catherine Tanna (head of Energy Australia) said about the Yallourn brown coal power station (my bold), starting at about the 4 minute mark …

    “We have a responsibility to operate that as efficiently and as reliably as we possibly can … and we invest in it, we invest in it being able to provide more energy without burning less coal … and we have coal supplies to keep that power station operating for many years to come …

    That may have been a Freudian slip. But was it even a slip? No-one has questioned or corrected it. Elsewhere in the interview she also lets slip that renewables will be used for new capacity only – i.e. not to replace existing capacity. It seems to me that this most recent call by Big Coal for a “transition plan to renewables” is just a smokescreen for “we will continue to burn coal as much coal as we possibly can, and we will use renewables as an excuse to bump up the price”

  13. Journalism is certainly patchy these days. The South Australian ALP’s historic challenge to the redistribution of state electoral boundaries was heard by the full bench of the Supreme Court yesterday.

    Murdoch’s ‘Advertiser’ reported this unique event in four derisory paragraphs on Page 14.
    Under an odd, unattributed heading (Redraw out of bounds), it says:
    ‘A radical redraw of South Australia’s electoral boundaries wrongly “shuffled the pieces” in an unfair “political sop”, an unprecedented legal challenge has heard.

    A rare sitting of five Supreme Court justices yesterday heard the Australian Labor Party’s appeal against the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission’s dramatic political landscape rewrite.

    The boundaries shake-up, announced last year, shifted almost 400,000 South Australians into different seats and placed the Liberal Opposition into pole position to form the next government.
    The Liberal Party is fighting the legal action.’

    Pathetically inadequate.

  14. @ People saying that NXT is about to cave because he said he supports some parts of the bill. His current list of demands (the last is presumably put in there so he has something big to give up during negotiations).

    The detail of the Xenophon requirements is worth a look so we know where this Omnibus may land.

    NXT has long opposed:

    the four-week wait for Youth Allowance, and
    PPL cuts at both the initial 18-week proposal and the subsequent 20-week proposal announced last week.
    In a statement, NXT said before considering cuts to everyday Australian families, the government needs to:

    take future company tax cuts for big business off the table at this time;
    crack down on multinational tax avoidance and ensure companies such as Google and Facebook pay their fair share;
    urgently free-up funds in the Automotive Transformation Scheme to stem the flow of jobs as auto-making shuts down in this country in October, in order to keep people off welfare and contributing to the nation’s prosperity; and
    establish an Emissions Intensity Scheme which will lower power prices for families, pensioners and businesses and increase reliability.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/feb/14/nick-xenophon-rules-out-support-for-omnibus-savings-bill-politics-live

  15. TT
    “How can Trump refuse to disclose his income tax situation? Every other modern president has done it.”

    It’s part of Trump’s confected “anti-establishment” appeal. Trump supporters love the idea that he doesn’t play by the rules. He gives a big FU to convention and tradition.
    In the same vain, Trump (and his supporters) laud the fact that he used bankruptcies to game the system. Too bad if people lost their jobs while Trump raked in the $$$. He’s a savvy businessman, right?

  16. ratsak @ #541 Monday, February 13, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    Who says they’d be involved? Look at these people. They aren’t exactly proving themselves up for mature, professional debate.
    Then you need to drop all references to bipartisan.
    Fuck bipartisanship.
    Bipartisanship works where both sides come to an agreement based on a shared desire to work together for better outcome than either could achieve solo.
    The Libs don’t do bipartisanship. The only way to bring them to heel is to crush them. They have to hurt and hurt bad to put their destructive urges on hold. And even that is only a temporary reprieve until they think they can get away with it again.
    Talking about bipartisanship only normalises and validates their vandalism. It treats them as equal partners to the solution whereas in reality they are the problem.

    Well said Ratty – right on the money!

  18. steve777 @ #552 Monday, February 13, 2017 at 10:34 pm

    Liberals definition of ‘bipartisan’: accept every part of our program without question and vote for it, including those bits we haven’t worked out yet. These days Liberals don’t do bipartisan.

    And even then they would rub your face in it.

    This sums the tories up –

    In Defeat malice, In Victory revenge

  21. ‘Fuck bipartisanship.’

    Indeed, bipartisanship is yet another diversion with which to attack Labor and run the both sides as bad as each other fiction.
    A fiction that is strangely absent when Labor is in power.

  23. I heard recently that One Nation and the Coalition have so much excess ignorance coming from their members they’re thinking of selling it at $20 a barrel.

    Gina and Rupert have brought the drilling rights.

  24. Multinational fossil fuel companies exploiting liquefied natural gas in Australia have built up a further $50 billion in tax credits over the past financial year, further delaying any meaningful royalty payments from the massive export sector.

    A submission by the Australian Tax Office to Treasurer Scott Morrison’s review of the petroleum resource rent tax, or PRRT, shows the LNG sector’s combined tax credits, or “carry forward expenditure”, grew to $238 billion in 2015-16, having climbed from $187 billion the previous year – or $138 million a day over 12 months.

    Oil and gas market experts such as Monash University’s Diane Kraal have previously warned that the industry’s war chest of tax credits would shield companies like Chevron and Shell from contributing any PRRT “in her lifetime”.

    The PRRT is the only royalty-like payment that the big LNG projects like Gorgon, owned by Chevron, Shell and ExxonMobil, are forced to pay for the billions of dollars in Australian gas they extract and export to Asia.

    Little ScoMo has no power over these multinationals, so he turns to citizens to balance his books.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tax-sink-hole-gas-multinationals-claim-50-billion-more-in-relief-credits-in-a-year-20170213-gubmfv.html

  25. they’re thinking of selling it at $20 a barrel.

    Good luck to them. With Trump’s USA providing a world wide glut I doubt they could give it away.

  26. Puff, have you heard of the novel Barossa by John Clive – 1981.
    On the cover the ‘ss’ is depicted at German lightning bolts ⚡⚡ as per the SS.
    It has Nazis, Chinese spies and nuclear weapons all tucked away in Hahndorf.

    https://g.co/kgs/1B8fYR

  28. This congressman is a republican

    NYC Serenade Retweeted

    31m
    Cheri Jacobus‏ @CheriJacobus
    Rep. King wants Flynn-Russia call transcript @CNN
    Rep. King wants Flynn-Russia call transcript – CNN Video
    cnn.com

  29. Just on bipartisanship…

    There is really only one area of significant bipartisanship in Australia at the moment. Boat borne asylum seekers. The reason for that bipartisanship is because the ALP simply couldn’t continue to lose the battle. Even that is an uneasy truce. The Libs will look for and if necessary generate any tiny point of difference they can use to restart the fighting, meanwhile Labor is hoping like hell the house of cards collapses on the Libs watch so they don’t get stuck with the blame when it inevitably does.

    Bipartisanship is simply a nice way of saying capitulation. If both sides are yielding to the realisation they both cannot afford to continue hostilities there is a chance of a real synergistic solution.

    Otherwise it’s just surrender.

  31. They’d be saying ‘Good Morning President Ryan’, because they’d have already impeached Hillary’s arse and taken the VP with her.

  32. ‘take future company tax cuts for big business off the table at this time;’

    The government will say ‘too easy, they’re only forecasts, we can put them back on when we’re closer to the date’ – or point out to X that they’re ‘only’ forecasts and he can vote them down when they’re actually legislated…

    ‘crack down on multinational tax avoidance and ensure companies such as Google and Facebook pay their fair share;’

    The government will say that they’re currently working on this…

    ‘…urgently free-up funds in the Automotive Transformation Scheme to stem the flow of jobs as auto-making shuts down in this country in October, in order to keep people off welfare and contributing to the nation’s prosperity;’

    The government will say it’s already put programs in place to achieve this…

    ‘and
    establish an Emissions Intensity Scheme which will lower power prices for families, pensioners and businesses and increase reliability.’

    The government will say that they’re trying to get a review up and running on the best way to do this.

    One can disagree that the government are doing these things, but the government thinks it is (and if they’re not happening, it’s Labor’s Fault) so X’s list of demands isn’t really that onerous.

    A lot depends, of course, on how high a level of trust X will place in the various government responses. (I wouldn’t put any at all, but X seems far more trusting than I am).

  37. Got Reachteled last night. About streetlights. Oh well everything can’t be about elections I suppose.
    One question was very push poll like though. WTTE “If LED streetlights used 40% less power and provided brighter lighting would you support local councils being able to install them?” Hard to answer no. I wasn’t even aware there was any opposition to them being used so I don’t know who commissioned the poll.

  41. The price of iron ore continues to defy market expectations, climbing beyond $US90 a tonne for the first time in more than two years

    Gina will of course use extra profits to employ more people and increase wages, right?

  44. Ross Gittins writes, with a pen filled with acid.

    “Some of the record-breaking extreme heat we have been seeing recently will be considered normal in 30 years’ time.”

    Oh, good.

    Of course, none of this is having any effect on agriculture. It must be a great comfort to our farmers to know that, by order of Barnaby Joyce and the National Party, climate change is a figment of the climate scientists’ imagination.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-a-relief-that-climate-change-doesnt-really-exist-20170214-gucb48.html

  45. This would explain a lot

    in reply to @th3j35t3r

    3h
    JΞSŦΞR ✪ ΔCŦUAL³³º¹‏ @th3j35t3r
    ^^^ ABSOLUTE MUST WATCH Explanation for Trumps request for short reports w/ lots of images here. Brace yourselves >>
    Uh-Oh: Does Donald Trump Know How to Read?
    http://www.youtube.com

  46. I see Ratsak is still not getting it.

    The whole point of having a stakeholders summit is to show voters that there is no bipartisan position to be had.

    As long as Labor runs the summit. This will become obvious.
    At the moment the negatives have held sway.

    Holding a summit forces the media to focus on policy and fact.

    Labor proves to voters there is no energy agnostic position by the LNP

  49. Evidence that not all “alternative” or “traditional” medicine is rubbish.

    “Traditional healers in the Amazon have used the Brazilian peppertree for hundreds of years to treat infections of the skin and soft tissues,” says Cassandra Quave, an assistant professor in Emory’s School of Medicine’s Department of Dermatology and co-author on the study. “We pulled apart the chemical ingredients of the berries and systematically tested them against disease-causing bacteria to uncover a medicinal mechanism of this plant.”

    Through their work, the team demonstrated that a compound taken from the berries slowed the formation of skin lesions in MRSA-infected mice. Rather than actually killing the MRSA bacteria, the compound interferes with a gene the cells use to communicate, work together and inflict damage.

    “It essentially disarms the MRSA bacteria, preventing it from excreting the toxins it uses as weapons to damage tissues,” Quave says. “The body’s normal immune system then stands a better chance of healing a wound.”

    http://newatlas.com/brazilian-berry-superbug/47884/

  50. As I mentioned before, I saw Ross Gittins give a speech at the beginning of last year when he talked about how brilliant Malcolm was and how much he expected from him. To Ross’s credit, unlike most of the press gallery, he follows the evidence and changes his mind accordingly.

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