Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 42 of 45
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  1. Rex

    That link will be a real problem as there have always been objections as its traverses parks and some habitat-valuable reserves. Be interesting to see who wins.

  2. Martha, if you get a Citibank Plus account an advantage is that since there are no account set-up or maintenance fees, or requirements to deposit money regularly, you can hang on to the account for future overseas trips, not just the imminent trip. To set up the account you need to present ID to either a Citibank branch or an Australia Post office, and you need to allow a week for the Visa Debit card and PIN to reach you by post, and give yourself time to check that the card works before your departure. But once you’ve gone through that admin process once you can hang on to the account indefinitely at no cost.

  4. 😆

    Marko ‏@AusLoafer · 3h3 hours ago

    We now live in a world where Malcolm Turnbull eating a raw onion would actually increase his credibility as PM…#Auspol

  7. Mathias Cormann has refused to say if the Turnbull government still has confidence in Dr Alan Finkel after the chief scientist warned Australia would not meet its emissions reduction target under the Paris agreement with current federal policy settings.

    “Look at our track record,” Cormann told Sky News on Sunday. “People thought that we couldn’t meet the 2020 emissions reduction target based on our policy settings and indeed we are exceeding those targets.

    “We are very confident that with our policy settings we are able to meet the 2030 emissions reduction targets.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/dec/11/mathias-cormann-refuses-to-express-confidence-in-alan-finkel-after-climate-criticism?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

  8. The states will produce a Emissions Intensity Scheme to further erode the federal parliaments credibility.

    I think that is highly unlikely given the Qld Labor Government’s lack of interest in reducing carbon pollution. The Qld Labor Premier expressed a bit of openness on a state-based emissions intensity scheme but slammed the door shut within 12 hours because of talkback radio outrage.Why would Coalition state governments go out on a limb and defy conservative tribal orthodoxy on climate change when a state Labor Govt is too weak to commit?

  9. lizzie @ #2056 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    Rex D
    On that point I agree, but the route chosen will show how much (or how little) Labor values the green wedge.

    It will most definitely be a big issue leading up to the next Victorian election so I’m sure all proper processes will be undertaken as the spotlight will be shined on it by the MSM.

    I’m also sure the deadbeats in Canberra will inject themselves into the debate and politicize the hell out of it.

  12. nicholas @ #2058 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 1:48 pm

    The states will produce a Emissions Intensity Scheme to further erode the federal parliaments credibility.

    I think that is highly unlikely given the Qld Labor Government’s lack of interest in reducing carbon pollution. The Qld Labor Premier expressed a bit of openness on a state-based emissions intensity scheme but slammed the door shut within 12 hours because of talkback radio outrage.Why would Coalition state governments go out on a limb and defy conservative tribal orthodoxy on climate change when a state Labor Govt is too weak to commit?

    State Govts haven’t politicized the issue to the extremes of Abbott/Turnbull.

    The economic reality should bring them in line.

  13. Mathias Cormann has refused to say if the Turnbull government still has confidence in Dr Alan Finkel

    I think it’s hilarious. They thought Ian Chubb was a handful, and now Finkel is making life awkward.

  14. Jesus F*** Christ

    Bemused and Zoomster

    Do you just argue for the sake of it? Are you two addicted to arguments? Surely to goodness you both are aware of cost of living pressures? The price of meat and vegies has gone up as has rent, especially in Sydney. What in the name of hell is worth arguing about in my comments. The discussion started out about professional thieves stealing meat (in the UK) and I pointed out the bleeding obvious that that is starting to happen here because the cost of food is going up. All I was ever saying (assuming you CAN read or have basic comprehension skills) is that we are moving into a land where people are stealing food to EAT not to fund a drug habit.

    There are many many people living on the pension where money is tight. They at least do not need to travel to work or support young children. There are many, many more or in low paid “service” industries where their net pay will be around $600 per week. More than the pension and more than the dole but still pretty bloody meagre. Since they are often “working” they will not have the welfare assistance that others have.

    Funnily enough I first starting having this argument with Liberal lovers, who were saying that the $5 co-payment for medicare was a bonza idea. i pointed out that there is many a person without $5 in their pocket some days in a fortnight. Now I am having the SAME argument with supposed ALP members who are into denial that those self same people who have not $5 for the Dr will not have $25 for a lamb roast. Reality bites friend. Many people will not have $5 for the Dr and those SAME people may not have $25 for a lamb roast.

    Then bizarrely Bemused denied that there were people who would choose smokes (or grog) over food. Not sure what sheltered cave he lives in but I can think of quite a few committed smokers/drinkers who would go without good food if the choice was smokes or food. I repeat I had just such a conversation recently.

    Remember that even if you OWN your house, the combination of rates, insurance, and utility bills will cut a huge hole in a pension, not to mention basic maintenance costs. There will be not much change if any from $500 per month for most. For those pensioners who hang on to private medical – (a LOT) and who run a car (MOST) there will by at most $200/300 week left for living. If you happen to be a smoker/drinker then the surplus left over for food is pretty scanty.

  15. Mathias Cormann has refused to say if the Turnbull government still has confidence in Dr Alan Finkel after the chief scientist warned Australia would not meet its emissions reduction target under the Paris agreement with current federal policy settings.

    “Look at our track record,” Cormann told Sky News on Sunday.

    Yep. Justin Gleeson
    Gillian Triggs
    Mike Quigley
    Dr Alan Finkel?

  16. Whenever a pollie says this:

    it’s a matter of making sure that you get the balance right

    I know they’re prevaricating.
    In Domestic Violence, the scales are tipped down on one side already.

    Senator Cormann told Sky News the Federal Government was already investing in combating domestic violence and a paid leave program would be expensive.

    “We just believe it’s another cost on our economy that will have an impact on our international competitiveness,” Senator Cormann said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-11/paid-domestic-violence-leave-another-cost-to-economy-cormann/8110184

  18. Ctari

    Oh poor diddums. Given the huge range of abuse I suffer here regularly (nutty douchebag, conspiracy theorist, turd stand out) I rather cannot get too upset by suggesting people’s comprehension is limited.

  22. Does CPyne actually think this is a clever tweet?

    Christopher Pyne
    Christopher Pyne – Verified account ‏@cpyne

    Your household energy bills have risen 61% in last 6yrs alone & Bill Shorten wants to raise them even higher by bringing back the carbon tax
    Embedded image
    7:45 PM – 9 Dec 2016
    27 RETWEETS42 LIKES

  23. ‘Then bizarrely Bemused denied that there were people who would choose smokes (or grog) over food. Not sure what sheltered cave he lives in…’

    One with unlimited internet access.

  24. dtt

    You could have made your arguments without using ‘hypotheticals’.

    As for the rest, my family lives on $60k a year currently, and it’s a fortune compared to what we had most of the time the kids were growing up. We still managed to live decent lives, and afford a few luxuries (such as skiing every winter).

    Your hypotheticals simply demonstrated that you didn’t really know what you were talking about, and undermined your argument. If you’d left them out, your case would, in fact, have been stronger.

  25. TPOF:

    What esp irks me is that not only does the govt no listen to experts when they provide unpalatable advice, but with asking ministers whether they still have confidence in said experts, the media is implicitly suggesting that it’s perfectly okay for a govt to dispense with the services of expertise because they provide unpalatable advice. Whatever happened to the assumption that govts govern in the national interest?

  36. Did Malcolm really say this?

    Vince Mahon ‏@vjmahon · 1m1 minute ago

    Malcolm Turnbull stands by Putin over Russian Doping Scandal saying you can’t trust science when it threatens your credibility. #auspol

  38. I like to spend at least 10 minutes every day watching the bees from the hives in the paddock next door coming to our old water tank and having a drink of water from the side of the lid where the overflow laps. I stand right in the middle of their coming and going, just off to the side of the tank, and I just feel so gloriously lucky to be able to witness them go about their vital work. Never has one bumped into me as they come into to land or take off for the hive. They are a natural wonder and simply amazing.

  42. C@Tmomma
    so agree re the bees,they are amazing
    Hope you don’t mind I pinched that comment of yours to Corman re track record and tweeted it .Going very well indeed

  43. CTar1

    Will the Bosphorus be closed? Will the Russians nuke Turkey?

    Shit no. They have a pipeline to build.
    Would not want to be a jihadi in Aleppo. A few days back a mortar attack killed a couple of nurses at a field hospital there. In the last day or two Vlad has sent in “The Chechens” special forces. I don’t think they play by the Marquis of Queensbury rules.

    “Turkey And Russia Sign Strategic “Turkish Stream” Gas Pipeline Deal”
    Oct 10, 2016 2:38 PM
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/turkey-and-russia-sign-strategic-turkish-stream-gas-pipeline-deal
    Syria: Chechen Special Forces Deployed To Support Loyalists

    https://www.stratfor.com/sample/snapshots/syria-chechen-special-forces-deployed-support-loyalists

  44. C@Tmomma

    I have been amused for several days at the antics of two male blackbirds on my verandah. I think the disputed territory is a bush outside my study window.
    They chase each other on foot, one way and then the other, until one surrenders by diving down to the ground.

    It seems wings are out of fashion this year!

  45. c@t

    The investigation into Russia interfering into US election has a way to run. Woll be interesting yo see where it all leads

  47. I am so inquisitive that even if I use STFU I can’t resist looking at what they’re saying!!

    I only use it on two commenters and that’s only because they are vitriolic, obsessive and creepy. I’m never tempted to look because I know it’s just more of the same from them

  48. C@

    If you want some real amusement, pour some old bottles of jam into a pan and put it outside.

    We did this (not intending to attract bees) and it was amazing – the pan ended up about half an inch deep in bees.

  49. daretotread @ #2064 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 2:06 pm

    Jesus F*** Christ
    Bemused and Zoomster
    Do you just argue for the sake of it? Are you two addicted to arguments? Surely to goodness you both are aware of cost of living pressures? The price of meat and vegies has gone up as has rent, especially in Sydney. What in the name of hell is worth arguing about in my comments. The discussion started out about professional thieves stealing meat (in the UK) and I pointed out the bleeding obvious that that is starting to happen here because the cost of food is going up. All I was ever saying (assuming you CAN read or have basic comprehension skills) is that we are moving into a land where people are stealing food to EAT not to fund a drug habit.
    rant rant rant…

    Earth to planet DTT…
    One of the problems is the people you identify tend to eat junk food, which is relatively expensive, compared to buying fresh food and doing some cooking.

    If anyone is that hard up that they are really faced with a choice between food and smokes and booze, then if they make the wrong choice I don’t have much sympathy for them.

    And if they are doing drugs I have even less sympathy.

  50. Bemused

    More information here (includes maps).

    The Banyule Flats, the Warringal Parklands and the Yarra Corridor (the areas to be affected by the proposed freeway, tunnel or viaduct) are one the last unaltered natural areas in the inner North East. As such they are important habitat and are extensively used for recreation.

    The areas also hold national, international and historical significance as the birthplace of the Heidelberg School, the first important art movement in Australia featuring works by Tom Roberts, Arthur Streeton, Frederick McCubbin, Walter Withers, Jane Sutherland, Charles Conder and Louis Abrahams. The Museum of Contemporary Art, Heide is located within the proposed roadway area.

    The Banyule City Council recently tabled a proposal to have the Banyule Flats, the Warringal Parklands and the Yarra Corridor made into a Heritage listed area.

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