Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. We have a hive of little, stingless native bees in a piece of sawn-off hollow log laced under the deck.

    I heard from an expert once that they only come out above 20 degrees Celsius. And it’s true!

    * 19.5 degrees… bees have a sleep-in.
    * 20.5 degrees… they’re all out, being busy.

    We don’t know how long they live, but I guess it isn’t long. So, in the 8 years they’ve been here, I suppose we’ve seen a complete turnover of generations, several times.

    On the first warm day after winter, out they come, and do their Spring-cleaning.Within another day or so you can see them flying out from the front step of their mini-Heathrow looking for flowers, and flying back in with little yellow pollen socks on their legs.

    They don’t sting. They don’t attack.They are among God’s most benign, inoffensive and useful creatures.

    Once every couple of years there is a swarming kerfuffle. We’re not sure whether this is one hive attacking another (there’s a rival one out the front) or some kind of internal civil war, or something else, like an apiaristic celebration of life. Sadly, after these get-togethers are over, hundreds, if not thousands of the tiny critters – no bigger than a house fly – lie dead outside the entrance to their hive.

    From speaking to other people who have native beehives on their property, there is a great reserve of pride and admiration in human hearts for their tiny tenants. We share it. When wemove, we’re taking them with us. They’ve already been rescued from somewhere in Western Sydney when their tree was lopped,and I hope they can survive another tripin the nearish future. Apparently all you need to do is wait until winter, then tape up the hole, transport the critters and when they wake up… if they’re far enough away from their original spot… well, we’ll see what happens.

  2. In my garden I’m watching multiple Lampropholis Guichenoti (Skinks) cavorting on the brick walls of my courtyard.

    Usually, between scoffing as many small black ants as possible, they chase each other at amazing speed up and down the brick walls.

    At the moment I have Snow Peas in and they’re chasing each other up and down the wooden stakes I have in to guide the plants up to some lattice above.

    Once it gets hot the little buggers will start coming inside. Catching them and putting them back out before the become dehydrated is a challenge!

  3. lizzie @ #2091 Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 2:57 pm

    I am so inquisitive that even if I use STFU I can’t resist looking at what they’re saying!!

    I used it once only. To be effective you would need to wipe out everything that refers to that post in any way. And, as mentioned by Lizzie. I wondered what the hell he was saying now. It took more time to open the post to check than to just “walk on by” with the scroll wheel.
    The particular poster has since been banned apparently.
    Another warm day in Newcastle. 28 degrees, cloudy. 🙂

  4. victoria Sunday, December 11, 2016 at 3:03 pm
    The investigation into Russia interfering into US election has a way to run. Woll be interesting yo see where it all leads


    Intel world struggles to crack the code of an untrusting Trump

    How do you brief a president who refuses to believe what you tell him?

    Donald Trump’s insult-laced dismissal of reports that the CIA believes Russia hacked the 2016 election to help him is rattling a spy community already puzzled over how to gain the ear and trust of the incoming president.

    “He’s a 70-year old billionaire whose entire approach to life was just rewarded. And his approach to life is to not accept facts he disagrees with and attack people who present facts that are inconvenient to him,” said Matthew Miller, a former Obama administration Justice Department spokesman who has been highly critical of Trump.

  5. Lizzie,
    I am just back from my daily look at the bees. Still amazing. 🙂

    As far as birds go, I too love this time of year because the small birds are extremely voluble. Outside my window we have a bush on either side of the walkway into the house and it has little pink flowers that the local honeyeaters seem pretty keen on. They amaze me the way they can grip onto a twig of a branch and hang almost upside down to get their heads around the droopy flowers so as to get their fill of pollen.

    Just right mow the Fairy Wrens are making their way along the bushes that are in front of the verandah. With their manic little tweets and trills breaking through the still afternoon air. They always seem to move in a harem arrangement of a few females and one male who leads the rake’s progress through the trees as they look for grubs on the branches.

    Finally there are the Willie Wagtails, Robin Redbreasts and Blue Crested Wrens, who tend to behave in the way you have seen with your birds. The males especially like attacking my window because they think they have spied competition for the little ladies! So I have to get up and close my curtains for a little while so that they can’t see themselves any more. 🙂

    I have never regretted getting rid of our pet cat, or not replacing it when it got run over on the road outside, because we never used to see these birds until they were dead and the cat brought them home.

  6. KayJay

    Another warm day in Newcastle. 28 degrees, cloudy.

    Dull in Canberra at daylight but by 9 clear as a bell and sunny.

    Now 26C with 25% humidity. Very nice.

  7. CTar1

    I think he has managed to score a 4)

    1)Flotsam is floating wreckage of a ship or its cargo.
    2)Jetsam is part of a ship, its equipment, or its cargo that is purposely cast overboard or jettisoned to lighten the load in time of distress and is washed ashore.
    3)Lagan (also called ligan) is goods or wreckage that is lying on the bottom of the ocean, sometimes marked by a buoy, which can be reclaimed.
    4)Derelict is cargo that is also on the bottom of the ocean, but which no one has any hope of reclaiming (in other maritime contexts, derelict may also refer to a drifting abandoned ship)

  8. When I built my house one of the council conditions was to cover all exposed earth with soil and mulch – which I bravely fought.
    Firstly, a lot of native bees rely on bare earth for nesting sites.
    Secondly, the excavation works had removed the high nutrient topsoil and disturbed the original native seedbank. Native plant species that hadnt been seen for decades were starting to shoot and I wanted to encourage more.
    Thirdly, I had no funds to spend on lots of soil and mulch.

  9. Poroti

    Derelict is cargo

    Malcolm seems to be having more down the beach than up the beach at the moment.

    He’ll be in ‘Derelict’ within 6 months.

  10. SK @3:44
    There is a lot of humour on PB.

    There is a lot of fun, so they say, in watching near naked women mud wrestling, but, ho hum, as far as I’m concerned.. too much mud!
    Knock about arguements are fun, personal abuse less so!

  11. SK

    Native plant species that hadnt been seen for decades were starting to shoot and I wanted to encourage more.

    An observation from life in the bush – If you want to find out what the native plants were before 1910 in country NSW go and have a look at what is growing along railway lines.

  12. Ctar1 @3:52
    We can place no limits on the impudence of an impudent man, or wtte.
    Jane Austen must have had a preview of C. Payne

  13. Poroti
    You are just too fast for me flotsam etc
    Must be all that bagpipe playing or doing the Highland Fling OR too many wee drams?

  14. At the risk of being pedantic, Mal will be flotsam if he floats away as the Govt sinks, or jetsam if they throw him overboard , hoping to avoid sinking. He’s sure to be one or the other.

  15. Simon Katich,
    I am very lucky in that the family that own the 9 hectares I live on are devout Environmentalists, Capitalists too but not in an environmentally destructive way. So I have outside my back door Remnant Temperate Rainforest and a natural watercourse. Plus the soil beyond the back of the stone path is just that, the native original soil. I have always appreciated it for what it is, and that is, what it should be. I have never wanted to have grass grow there. Which is just as well because every year the male Brush Turkey sweeps up all the leaves that have fallen off the Angophora trees with his powerful claws. Then makes a mound for the ladies he is trying to seduce. : )

  16. Remember this? Just to prove Labor left a huuuuge deficit?

    Barry Tucker ‏@btckr · 8h8 hours ago

    Joe Hockey’s Eleventynomics: *There’s no money for welfare because we had to give Reserve Bank $900 billion it did not want or welcome.*

  17. Fire (suspected arson) at Imam Ali Mosque/Islamic Centre in Melbourne overnight.

    This would be an excellent time for a Leader to make a statement. Not a tut-tut we will catch you, but a strong statement of revulsion. This is not the Australia we want. Come on down, Malcolm.

  18. About 1,300 animal parts have been found at a Darwin house in one of the largest hauls of its kind in Australian history.

    Northern Territory Department of Tourism and Culture chief executive Alistair Shields said the parts, including those of native animals like wedge-tailed eagles and brolgas, would have been worth more than $500,000 on the black market.

    “At about midnight on Tuesday police apprehended four men in a vehicle at Adelaide River, they were arrested … as a result of that wildlife officers attended a property at Howard Springs on Wednesday and discovered around 1,300 animal parts,” Mr Shields said.

    “About a thousand of those were native species, some were threatened species, and 300 were non-native species.”

    The NT Parks and Wildlife Commission said a 32-year-old man has been charged with firearm offences, but it was unclear whether the group would face further charges.

    It said the men had been released following their arrest as investigations continue.

  19. Lizzie

    I together with Darn and GG ( has he been around?), leave in the locality of the north east link proposal. I cant see the road ever happening. It is a green wedge and the community feel very strongly about it

  20. Ctari

    You amaze me – AGAIN

    Now not very long ago there was a real risk of a Turkey/Russia battle triggering a hot confrontation along the Bosphorus. Boats were sailing through with guns at ready and snipers on guard. it was not just me that was concerned indeed just about anyone with a passing interest in foreign affairs was concerned, that of course does not include many on PB.

    Now just in case you do not grasp this – risk does not mean it WILL happen, just that it MIGHT. Understand. know it is difficult.

    It COULD have got out of hand and while I am not sure what happened I suspect (just a guess boys and girls) that Obama played cautiously and did NOT give Turkey the thumbs up.

    Now as to more recent events – well the greatest diplomatic turn around in history seems to have unfolded and almost any guesses as to what really happened would be of interest and extend the little grey cells. However obviously Turkey has sorta switched sides (maybe, possibly, perhaps or is playing both sides or doubler dealing or just bonkers – fill in other sugestions).

    My own guess – and yeas boys and girls just a guess, is that Turkey acted without Obama’s approval re the Russian plane and was angry when he did not get back up. USA decided Erdogan was unreliable and a loose cannon and decided to “interfere in the democratic processes of another nation.” Russians got wind of it and warned Erdogan, thereby buying is sorta possibly temporary undying loyalty.

    Ctari any other intelligent rational suggestion welcome. Snide comments a waste of your time and mine.

  21. dtt

    Sorry, but isn’t a bit contradictory to refer to posters here as ‘boys and girls’ in that condescending manner and then finish with “Snide comments a waste of your time and mine.”?

  22. SA LIBS not answering their phones! Can only mean there’s ‘movement at the station’. Who’s jumping ship? Find out @7NewsAdelaide 6PM

  23. Bemused
    Sorry mate but that is being a ostrich. No prizes for not seeing what is coming. I assume you have home insurance. I am sure when you purchase it you contemplate the range of unlikely but possible events.

    This is supposed to be a political blog formed by people with a wider interest in politics and the world. Sadly it is incredibly parochial.

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