Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. A former product executive at Foxtel in Sydney, Rudder has spent most of his career working for Sky. The Australian journalist has consulted for Sky operations in the UK, Germany, Italy, the US and Australia. He also spent a year as news director for Channel Nine in 2003.

    Along with the “business transformation expert” Debra Frances, Rudder was brought in on a short-term contract in November “to assist the Executive in delivering our 2020 strategic objectives”, Guthrie told her executive team in an email.

    The ABC’s managing director said the consultants would advise her on “infrastructure, our processes and our people” and a “strategic approach to lifting performance and transforming work cultures”.

    Guardian Australia understands Guthrie presented an early version of her plans to the ABC board in November, and now Rudder and Frances were helping her to flesh it out. She is expected to brief the board on the restructure on Thursday, with a plan to announce it in February 2017.

    According to an early version of the restructure, a new position of chief content officer will be created to oversee all news, television and radio content.

    This would mean the directors of news, television and radio would move out of the executive and would no longer report directly to Guthrie. If approved this would be a demotion for the heads of news (Gaven Morris), radio (Michael Mason) and television (Richard Finlayson).

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/dec/06/michelle-guthrie-murdoch-consultant-restructure-abc-jim-rudder?CMP=share_btn_tw

  3. Boerwar

    There’s plenty of room in Central Australia, I have been told. (Thinks: this is the opportunity for humans to work out ways of living on a hot planet like Mars!)

  4. Another example of Turnbull’s dodgy double talk:

    Government backs away from banking tribunal, implements another ombudsman instead.

    The Government is backing away from its commitment to establish a banking tribunal, insisting it was only talking about a “small ‘t’ tribunal” when it floated the idea in October.

    Now it will establish a Financial Industry Ombudsman to replace the two financial services ombudsmen that already exist.

    In October Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said “what we are working towards is having one tribunal that deals with consumer complaints in a cost-effective and speedy way”.

    Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer told The World Today: “When the Prime Minister was talking about a ‘tribunal’ he was talking about a small ‘t’ tribunal, which was a catchall for having a one-stop consumer complaints stop.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-06/government-backs-away-from-banking-tribunal-ombudsmen-financial/8096126

  6. Bob’s Uncle

    Oh sure Malcolm.. we’ll now conveniently draw a technical distinction between a carbon price and a carbon tax.

    That bit stuck out like the proverbial …

  7. Darn

    It is. (Pronounced, by the way, Zh-vel-a).

    I once had a conversation with a transsexual called Karen, who made much the same observation you have.

    I replied that it had taken me thirty years to be really comfortable with the name (it sounds very grown up!)

    “Took me a bloody sight longer to get used to Karen,” Karen said.

  8. Consistent polling clearly showing that the PM and LOTO are both duds with voters.

    Which party room will show strength and do what’s required by installing a respected leader who will restore public trust and confidence…?

  10. All the criticisms of Direct Action before it was implemented were accurate. The idea was to pretend to be doing something about global warming while actually rewarding polluters, and gas and coal interests.
    It was not scaleable.
    It was not systemic.
    Parts of it were based on unproven science.
    It amounted to a transfer of funds from taxpayers to polluters.
    It undermined rewables investment. It rewarded coal mining.
    These criticisms have been magnified by de facto open slather tree clearing laws in some states.
    The rubber hit the road in the last pollution reduction auctions.
    No one much was buying them.

  11. Turnbull & Co are desperately hoping that now the session is over and everyone is looking to seasonal entertainment, that they can get away with putting out lots of garbage. Carbon Pricing/Climate Change & Banking “tribunal” (tribute a better word?) and a raft of other ‘deflated balloons’ of policy promises going down the gurgler.

    I have a couple of words for mr Turnbull … innovation and twitter

    Both of which are going to snag him in the underpants and lift until he starts to squeak!!!!!

  14. On whether the next PM should be solid without sparkle, or another rockstar clickbait personality … I have two names that are locally pertinent: Key & Howard. Neither terribly liked. Both held their ships together. No matter what we think of either personally (or their brand of politics) the majority were able to trust the steadiness of their regimes.

    Shorten will give Australia that. (Gillard would have, I think, had she been allowed to govern without the wowser interference).

  16. boerwar @ #160 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 12:34 pm

    All the criticisms of Direct Action before it was implemented were accurate. The idea was to pretend to be doing something about global warming while actually rewarding polluters, and gas and coal interests.
    It was not scaleable.
    It was not systemic.
    Parts of it were based on unproven science.
    It amounted to a transfer of funds from taxpayers to polluters.
    It undermined rewables investment. It rewarded coal mining.
    These criticisms have been magnified by de facto open slather tree clearing laws in some states.
    The rubber hit the road in the last pollution reduction auctions.
    No one much was buying them.

    Voters don’t rate facts anymore.

    They just pick a team and cheer them no matter what.

  17. I think the CFEMU will be laughing their bollocks off at the so called ABCC. They will exploit every avenue to shit all over Turnbulls half baked policy.

  19. Rex

    Yes see Labor attacking those pointing out Adani musty be stopped. Facts are more job losses from Reef destruction than Adani will create if you buy the economic argument

  28. Cat

    Qld Premier being disgraceful ignoring science. It’s clear. The mine cannot go ahead unless you deny science fact on climate change

  29. <blockquoteRex Douglas
    Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 12:54 pm
    Will the next Queensland Govt abandon the pledge of no 457’s…?

    At their own peril I would say. That issue is stronger in Queensland than anywhere else.

  31. guytaur @ #173 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 12:49 pm

    Your promotion of coal tells us you cold be Martin Ferguson. Facts trump your propaganda

    You are a fool. I do not promote coal consumption. I merely point out how hollow the arguments are that coal consumption is declining. It is not. On the contrary, it is expected to increase till 2040 at least, even if you assume a dramatically increased use of renewables. It is just not our coal that is going to be burnt. India actually has larger thermal coal reserves than we do, and they can see that the long term value of those reserves is declining. This means they are now quite willing to burn their own reserves instead of stockpiling them for future security and importing our coal instead.

    People who don’t understand this are ‘deniers’ in their own way – denying reality hoping that some ‘magic’ is going to save us all from climate change, and that therefore we need do nothing about it.

  32. Guytaur,
    So you are okay with The Greens’ supporters here disrespecting the Queensland Premier and making all their snide put-downs of Labor supporters here? Because they don’t do ‘constructive’ they just do condescending and snide. Which goes double for Pegasus’ transcription service.

    How many times has it been proven that she will cut and paste what suits The Greens’ agenda and selectively leave out other parts of the same article which contextualise the topic and which provides a more balanced and nuanced perspective? Frankly I find it very hard to have respect for someone whose sole aim is to come here and crap on Labor from great heights.

    You, otoh, seem more prepared, for whatever reason, to indulge it. Well you can but I don’t have to.

  33. CUPIDSTUNT – The most amazing thing about the ABCC is how this govt told building firms NOT to enter into agreements with the CMFEU (because they would need to enter into compliant agreements after the Act took effect) and then stabbed them in the back by agreeing to a delay of implementation and thus handing an advantage to those firms that had entered non-compliant agreements. Wow.

  34. P1

    Yes you do. Your agenda is clear as crystal when you say coal is cheaper than renewables. Not true. End the fossil fuel subsidies and watch renewables thrash fossil fuel coal on pure economics

  35. Cat

    Fair is fair. Plenty off Labor supporters do that with the LNP politicians. Including you.

    Don’t like the disrespect don’t dish it out with names like Turncoat. Potato head. Or other put downs

  36. Cat

    As it is you attacked a poster for daring to return to post opinion.

    Calling Said poster a Green Stenographer who has evolved that way due to Labor supporter attacks on Greens people who dare to post here

  37. Antony
    It shows the total inepititude and lack of understanding of the building industry and unions in general.It was just care factor zero, just get it through, who cares afterwards.

  38. CUPIDSTUNT – The most amazing thing about the ABCC is how this govt told building firms NOT to enter into agreements with the CMFEU (because they would need to enter into compliant agreements after the Act took effect) and then stabbed them in the back by agreeing to a delay of implementation and thus handing an advantage to those firms that had entered non-compliant agreements. Wow.

    In war as in Malcontent’s pursuit of a position without power.

    You must be prepared to force those on your side to make the ultimate sacrifice for the greater good.

  41. It shows how late the govt was in negotiating amendments to the ABCC.Their just too busy slagging off Shorten to do any meaningful work.LAZY BASTARDS.

  42. guytaur @ #184 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 1:04 pm

    Yes you do. Your agenda is clear as crystal when you say coal is cheaper than renewables. Not true. End the fossil fuel subsidies and watch renewables thrash fossil fuel coal on pure economics

    It is this kind of “do nothing” logic that makes me think you are deliberately misrepresenting the facts to avoid having to take any meaningful action on climate change.

  43. Guytaur

    When a Minister is as uncaring and evil as Dutton, I intend to go on calling him Potatohead whenever I wish. Or, for formal occasions, Mr Potato. Just as the ridiculous Barnaby, who cares only for his own votes, deserves Mr Beetroot.

  44. Bob’s Uncle
    Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Oh sure Malcolm.. we’ll now conveniently draw a technical distinction between a carbon price and a carbon tax. That worked well for Gillard, right?

    Given Gillard actually introduced an ETS the distinctions could get very convoluted.

  45. Looking at the big picture, the world IS transitioning to a clean energy economy, no matter what minor Govts in Australia do.

    I am lucky enough to live in a progressive state that has an eye on the future and largely ignores the propaganda from corporate backed media.

  46. Guytaur,
    Pegasus is no 97 pound weakling. She gives as good as she gets, in case you haven’t noticed.

    By defending her so unquestioningly you are reminding me of the middle class white girl in the US who claimed victimisation because she couldn’t get an African American shop assistant to serve her before everyone else. It’s that kind of perverse logic that sees you claim that Pegasus is being bullied here. And THAT’S why she should be allowed to cut and paste anti Labor diatribes from the media. It’s a nonsense.

    So I will continue to challenge it because it deserves to be robustly challenged.

    And I will continue to hope and pray that one day The Greens and their camp followers will grow up and stop their childish sniping at Labor and their supporters. I won’t be holding my breath though as it seems that it’s a habit that is almost impossible for them to break. As one look at Pegasus’ contributions today confirmed.

  47. Lizzie

    I have not seen you having a double standard saying it’s ok to disrespect LNP MP’s but no nicknames including spelling of names

    That’s my point about cats comments. Different to zoom stern who is asking respect for spelling of all names including LNP ones.

    I am on the disrespect is fine side with politicians as long as it’s not hypocritical.

    I mis spell names of politicians. Eg for some reason I keep putting I not e at end of Senator Di Natalie’s name. I am not doing so through disrespect. Just my bad habit mistake.

    One. I am trying to correct.

    With Palasczuck. It took a while for journos to get it right. So when someone is doing deliberate misspelling to make a potato head like nick name it’s hard to tell. That’s where wires got crossed as far as I see it

  48. Cat

    You were not challenging. Your comment was a personal attack a put down for daring to cut and paste opinion after experience of attacks for posting opinion.

    Disagree all you like but that stenographer post was how dare a different opinion I disagree with be posted. Bullying
    That’s what it was.

  49. Lizzie, I do think one should attack someone for their physiognomy for any reason. We’re born with that. Barnaby, on the other hand, had a drinker’s face because, I think, he is a drinker. That’s the distinction I draw.

  50. Note also that The Greens’ camp followers here won’t admit that it was The Greens on the last day of parliament that did a deal with the Coalition government.

    That would be the Coalition government who want to provide $1 Billion to the Adani coalmine development for a rail line but no money to the Cross River Rail in Brisbane, a Public Transport project that The Greens keep going on about being preferable to car travel.

    That would be the Coalition government that turned a blind eye to the atrocities on Manus and Nauru which The Greens claim to care so much about.

    The Greens are as pure as the driven snow…that someone has peed on.

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