Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. The City of Fremantle is poised to abandon holding a citizenship ceremony as part of its alternative national celebrations on January 28 — but still refuses to hold it on the real Australia Day.

    Responding yesterday to a written warning from Assistant Minister for Immigration Alex Hawke, Fremantle mayor Brad Pettitt said the council had never intended for the ceremony to be a political stunt.

    He conceded that holding it on another day would “probably be the best way forward for everybody”. “We’re not trying to have a confrontation with the Government,” Dr Pettitt said.

    “We will work with his (Mr Hawke’s) office to make sure they are comforted sufficiently and if they can’t be, we will ultimately move it to another day.”

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/33420519/fremantle-to-cancel-australia-day-citizenship-ceremony/#page1

    I don’t understand what the big deal is. Citizenship ceremonies happen throughout the year and nobody complains about them. What does it matter if one is held on Jan 28 and not Jan 26.

  2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/matthew-hopcraft/the-sweet-truth-about-a-tax-on-sugar/?utm_hp_ref=au-politics

    There’s been a lot of hyperventilating over the past week since the Grattan Institute and then the Australian Greens kicked off serious discussion about a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages to tackle the obesity epidemic in Australia.

    Although public health advocates have been talking about a sugar tax for a long time, the government has taken a ‘nothing to see here’ approach, ignoring the growing support for a sugar tax here and abroad. Or, in the case of Barnaby Joyce, the ‘bonkers mad’ approach.

  3. Daretotread
    Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 9:26 am
    I have an actuary,HS maths teacher,chartered accountant for children,a grandson on uni scholarship for IT,I am a retired financial controller, my point is all of us were educated at comprehensive public primary and high schools

  4. lizzie @ #70 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 9:43 am

    You have reminded me of an anecdote from several years ago, from America, which had a much higher proportion of non-Anglo names.

    “Thank you for your order, sir. And what is your name?”
    Englishman. “Smith.”
    “And how do you spell that, please?”

    There was a Get Smart I remember from my childhood involving a women’s diving competition where Maxwell and 99 were complaining about how the Russian girls all had similar sounding names. Then the American competitors’ names were announced:

    Mary Sue Baker, Betty Jean Smith, etc

  5. pegasus @ #109 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 10:29 am

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/matthew-hopcraft/the-sweet-truth-about-a-tax-on-sugar/?utm_hp_ref=au-politics
    There’s been a lot of hyperventilating over the past week since the Grattan Institute and then the Australian Greens kicked off serious discussion about a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages to tackle the obesity epidemic in Australia.
    Although public health advocates have been talking about a sugar tax for a long time, the government has taken a ‘nothing to see here’ approach, ignoring the growing support for a sugar tax here and abroad. Or, in the case of Barnaby Joyce, the ‘bonkers mad’ approach.

    It’s a health issue – proposing a sugar tax is giving high blood pressure to a lot of businesses that make lots of money from giving people diabetes.

  6. For the ‘perplexed’ among us a philosopher’s article in the ‘The Scientific American’.

    Post-Truth: A Guide for the Perplexed

    Science’s quest for knowledge about reality presupposes the importance of truth, both as an end in itself and as a means of resolving problems. How could truth become passé?

    For philosophers like me, post-truth also goes against the grain. But in the wake of the US presidential election and the seemingly endless campaigns preceding it, author Ralph Keyes’s 2004 declaration that we have arrived in a post-truth era seems distressingly plausible.

    Post-truth refers to blatant lies being routine across society, and it means that politicians can lie without condemnation………………………. ‘Don’t bother me with facts’ is no longer a punchline. It has become a political stance. …………Public tolerance of inaccurate and undefended allegations, non sequiturs in response to hard questions and outright denials of facts is shockingly high. Repetition of talking points passes for political discussion, and serious interest in issues and options is treated as the idiosyncrasy of wonks. ……………………………………………

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/post-truth-a-guide-for-the-perplexed/

  7. Lizzie
    ‘Unfortunately, I found that painful to watch, rather than funny.”

    That is unfortunate. I think it’s hilarious. Maybe it’s because I’ve taught in American classrooms.

  8. Malcolm Turnbull’s climate change record is the equivalent of an athlete running 7km instead of 42km and claiming to be the greatest marathon runner of all time. Not only is he taking shortcuts, he’s setting future generations up for a massive clean-up bill.

    This is because Australia is banking its environmental and fiscal future on a climate change magic pudding.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/05/we-cant-bank-our-future-on-malcolm-turnbulls-climate-change-magic-pudding

    Greg Hunt has to take a certain amount of blame for this. In order to gain a ministry in the Abbott Disaster, he came up with the first disastrous policy, and has been running backwards, mouthing nonsense and lies, ever since.

  9. It is interesting of course, that the LNP right aren’t happy with the emissions reduction review.
    This was of course their policy that they took into the 2013 election, or didn’t they really mean it?

  10. https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/12/06/essential-violence-and-abuse-on-the-rise-brandis-the-worst-minister/

    Dec 6, 2016
    Essential: violence and abuse on the rise, Brandis the worst minister
    Who are the best and worst ministers? And is violence due to racism and religious intolerance rising or falling? Essential Report has the answers.
    Bernard Keane — Politics Editor

    Australians believe racial and religious abuse and violence is on the rise — though some voters are more likely to see it than others, this week’s Essential Report shows.

    More than half of voters — 52% — believe racial abuse or violence has increased in recent years; another 27% believe it has stayed the same; just 12% say it has decreased. And 59% of voters believe abuse or violence based on religion has grown worse, with 9% saying it has lessened and 21% believing it remains unchanged. In contrast, 33% of voters believe homophobic abuse or violence has grown worse while 29% believe it has lessened.

    ………………..

    Disaster-prone Attorney-General George Brandis has the worst ratings of any government minister: just 26% approve of his performance while 34% disapprove. Brandis, whose most recent scandals include an unresolved role in a mysterious deal with the Western Australian government over $300 million in tax revenue and misleading Parliament over an abandoned effort to muzzle the solicitor-general, also performs worst with Coalition voters. Julie Bishop is by far the best rated minister, with a net approval of 29 points (52% to 23%), and 66 points among Coalition voters. Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton are, like Brandis, in negative territory, while Industry Minister Greg Hunt — who has just had his signature Green Army policy shut down — scores the highest “don’t know” rating.

    ……………….

    On voting intention, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; Labor remains on 36% and the Greens on 9%; One Nation is up a point to 8% — just one behind the Greens — while NXT remains on 3%, for a two-party preferred outcome of 52%-48% in favour of Labor.

  11. TPOF

    Worse than that….when I was in my teens I remember watching the Olympics on TV.

    One of the divers had a complicated name, and the Aussie commentators said, “We’ll just refer to him as Smith from now on…” (and so they did).

  12. If you want an LNP government in Queensland, get Labor to go full bore against Adani. And see where that gets the environment – we’ll have environment destruction all ewer the place.

    If the Adani Galilee Basin project ever goes ahead (and I still doubt that it will), it will still be a highly efficient producer of high quality black steaming coal (not “brown coal” as some seem to think). Note the news stories about the high level of automation – most of it will be run remotely from Townsville! As such it will probably corner a good slice of the remaining market for steaming coal as renewables increase their share of power generation.

  13. kakuru @ #85 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 10:05 am

    Lizzie
    “You have reminded me of an anecdote from several years ago, from America, which had a much higher proportion of non-Anglo names.”
    This short skit (African-American substitute teacher in an Anglo-Celtic class) always gets a laugh out of me:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRpsRKuyi3Y

    I have no idea why anyone would laugh at such a stupid setup.

    The sub teacher is an idiot. In the real world, the class would riot. I know it is a setup, and scripted, but it bears not one jot of resemblance to the real world.

    The sub would be in a world of pain real quick, and given his marching orders by the Principal, either directly and immediately, or through the combined wrath of the parents of the students.

    That is not how any good teacher reacts to a new class. If you are not sure of the names, you get someone trustworthy (you can usually pick one out in a few minutes if you know your game) and get them to mark the roll, while you get on with the lesson. Then slip them a chokkie frog for their trouble.

    And, very importantly, learn all their names as fast as you can, and pronounce them the way they want them pronounced. It’s not hard.

    And telling a class that you are an experienced teacher who won’t take nonsense is the dumbest thing you can do.

    You walk in, look every single one of your students in the eye, the whole room, tell them your name, put it on the board, and get on with the lesson.

    They will know in sixty seconds or less whether you know your stuff or not. Without mutual respect, you get nowhere.

  14. Looks like the polls are oscillating around 52-48. Nice to see a bit of statistical noise after the unlikely stability during the campaign.

  15. Good to see that the 2 polls in a row at 51-49 were on the low side and we’re back in the 52 range with Essential and Newspoll.

    I’m surprised by how generous people are with their net sats for ministers compared to party leaders. Turnbull might be bad, but he hasn’t been [allegedly] found stealing $300 million from the tax payer.

  16. Don
    “The sub teacher is an idiot. In the real world, the class would riot. I know it is a setup, and scripted, but it bears not one jot of resemblance to the real world. ”

    Wow, tough room. I guess that’s why it’s comedy, not reality. It’s a joke Joyce.

  17. kakuru @ #114 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 11:00 am

    Lizzie
    ‘Unfortunately, I found that painful to watch, rather than funny.”
    That is unfortunate. I think it’s hilarious. Maybe it’s because I’ve taught in American classrooms.

    I agree Lizzie, very painful.
    Here in Vietnam what the teacher says is unquestionably correct and truthful, which immediately creates barrier to the students asking questions.
    It often makes interaction with the students difficult.

  18. Oooh page 3 is a “bad gateway” … is that because people are still playing the man instead of the subject? Mispronouncing/spelling names is another form of personal put down. Having grown up with a hard to spell name I know how childish others can be in regards to using it as a method of bullying or put down.

  19. don
    #124 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 11:18 am
    I am trying to avoid the stupid bullshit detector today.
    Can I be in your class please. I quite like chokkie frogs.

  20. You have reminded me of an anecdote from several years ago, from America, which had a much higher proportion of non-Anglo names.

    “Thank you for your order, sir. And what is your name?”
    Englishman. “Smith.”
    “And how do you spell that, please?”

    I once spoke to American telephone directory assistance when trying to look up an old girlfriend from younger and happier days.

    The lady on the other end asked me for the name.

    “Fish,” I replied.

    “Is that the lady’s first name or last name?” the operator queried.

    Well, it was California.

    And yes, I found her number, and she and her husband, along with myself and various girlfriends (and eventually my wife when I “settled down”) have enjoyed many holidays together in far-flung corners of the world.

    The last time I spoke to her was the morning after Trump’selection. She phoned me in tears of devastation. I didn’t know how to console her. I still don’t.

    And her name’s still “Fish” (for the record, her last name)

  21. I know my grammar is terrible, so sorry if this makes me seem like a word NAZI, but I see these words being confused a bit here.
    “Imply” is what the writer/talker/transmitter does.
    “Infer” is what the reader/listener/receiver does.

  22. c@tmomma @ #27 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 7:31 am

    52-48 to Labor. Bill Shorten slowly pulling ahead of Malcolm in the NetSat stakes. Slowly, slowly catchee Better PM monkey. Not bad, not bad.
    Next year is the key though to unlocking the doors of The Lodge in 2018 for Bill. As the Newspoll screams out in neon lights, people want a steady job and they want growth in the economy. How do you get growth in the economy? The simplest way is to get growth in wages.

    Actually Shorten is less far ahead in netsat terms in this Newspoll (6 points) and the one before it (5) than in the two before that (13 each). His latest satisfaction rating is only 34 which is the worst it has been since before the election. He hasn’t been above a net rating of -12 in all of 2016, leading only Howard in 1988 (never above -15) and Abbott in 2012 (never above -16) in that regard.

    As for the latest issue Newspoll, I haven’t seen the full number breakdowns but its design is silly. Jobs and (economic) growth are one slogan but two distinct issues. It’s no surprise that throwing them together results in a high figure.

  23. I’m not really into rude names, even for people like Abbott. I probably have used the odd “Turdball”, but generally “Mal Baby” is as far as I will go.

  24. Turnbull wriggling and squirming to try and avoid the wrath of the RWNJs:

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he has never supported a carbon tax, as debate about a climate policy review process threatens new disunity and political strife within the Coalition.

    Backbench MPs have publicly questioned the government’s timing and tactics after a formal review of the Direct Action policies was announced by Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg this week, with backbenchers including Cory Bernardi and Craig Kelly warning against any move towards a carbon tax or similar scheme.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-ive-never-supported-a-carbon-tax-20161205-gt4p22.html

  25. For we outside Queensland it is handy to have a kind of phonetic breakdown of the pronunciation of her family name. It is nothing to to with ‘white-Anglo-Saxons-unable-to-cope’ stuff, but not being able, from the spelling, to sort out how it sounds. Nothing disrespectful in this, although if the anglicised spelling is a deliberate insult then this is another matter. Having been corrected lots of times by the owners of such names as Megan – some who want it as “Meeegan” while others want it as “M’gun” or “Maries” who want “M’reeeee” and not “Maaree” it is not worth getting into a tizz about it. On QI, Alan Davies gets “Davis” and I still don’t know why other than personal preference?

  26. Don

    As a sub, I was late to a class once because I’d witnessed a car accident on the way to work.

    I walked into class ten minutes late. Although there was a teacher covering for me, things were totally out of control – kids standing on desks, throwing things, etc.

    Within five minutes of my taking over, they were all quiet, heads down, and working.

    At that moment, I understood why I got paid more than most subs!

  27. Mal Baby is between a rock and a hard place. Of course, he was part of the government that tossed out an ETS…

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says he has never supported a carbon tax, as debate about a climate policy review process threatens new disunity and political strife within the Coalition.

    CSIRO, Energy Networks Australia back emissions trading scheme over RETs to lower power prices
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-06/csiro-backs-emissions-trading-scheme-to-reduce-power-prices/8094498

  28. Is Dick Smith perhaps cosying up to Hanson because he sees an opportunity to replace Culleton as a PHON senator? Hanson certainly doesn’t like Culleton at all now.

    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson says she can no longer work with her Senate colleague Rod Culleton, portraying him as an egomaniac obsessed with publicity and incapable of teamwork in an extraordinary outburst on live radio.

    Senator Culleton’s defiance of party policy on the backpacker tax, which saw him support Labor’s preferred rate of 10.5 per cent, appears to have been the last straw in the rapidly disintegrating relationship between the two One Nation senators.

    “He’s not a team player at all. We can’t work with him, you can’t reason with him,” Senator Hanson told Sydney’s 2GB radio on Tuesday. “You can’t give him advice, he runs his own race. That’s not teamwork. It’s just absolutely ridiculous.”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/we-cant-work-with-him-pauline-hanson-unloads-on-one-nation-colleague-rod-culleton-20161206-gt4rx6.html

  29. If it was any other PM the press gallery would be all over the fact that Mal is so piss weak that he can’t discipline the likes of Bernadi and co, who now think that they have the liberty to comment any any proposal/policy/thought bubble that they don’t like.

    Imagine if it were Labor etc etc etc.

  30. Actually Shorten is less far ahead in netsat terms in this Newspoll (6 points) and the one before it (5) than in the two before that (13 each). His latest satisfaction rating is only 34 which is the worst it has been since before the election. etc.

    The last few weeks have involved a concerted attack on Shorten. All the old accusations have re-surfaced as if they hadn’t already been dismissed by the conservatives’ pet inquisitor, one D. Heydon.

    To me it’s not surprising at all that Shorten has taken a bit of a hit in the “popularity” stakes. That was the aim of the exercise.

    Shorten can’t win all the battles. The important thing is to win the war and his party is clearly on track for that. To be so close to Turnbull, even if behind a bit, is no disgrace.

    The idea that some around here espouse that Shorten should be ahead of Turnbull in every data set, and in all aspects of politics – personal and party – is unrealistic. It’s only 4 months into a 3-year term,and he’s improved both his own and his party’s stocks significantly in that time. He’s not peaking too soon, and what would be the point if he was? There will be a lot of water passing under the bridge before the next election.

    Labor’s greatest asset is someone who is calm, collected and astute under pressure, as Shorten appears to be. If Shorten is elected next time it will be despite his perceived “dullness”, which may by then be seen as a positive asset anyway. No more Messiahs, please! We’ve tried them, and they didn’t do too good.

    A united, focused Labor is exactly what the doctor ordered… forLabor itselfand for the nation. A few extra seats in a coming HOR election and Labor is the government. The Liberals and Nationals are at war. Perhaps they believe their own publicity about having a “solid working majority”? “Solid” is somewhat of an exaggeration, and they’re still working on the “working”. Why else would they crow so loudly about getting a couple of simple bills through both houses, demanding these passings to be termed “A Win”, if they weren’t acutely conscious of their vulnerability? Passing legislation is what normal governments do every day, isn’t it?

    Labor needs to discard the “Messiah Complex” and rid Australian politics of it.Wedon’t need leaders.We need negotiators and serious-minded administrators who can think a problem through based on policy considerations, not what the scribblers in the Press Gallery will write as click bait for the Late Edition before opening another bottle.

    With the forces against them marshalled as they are, it’s actually pretty amazing that Shorten and Labor are doing so well. Turnbull’s “one big push” of the past few weeks is fizzling out (as they always do) and pretty soon things will continue their inexorable downward spiral for the Coalition.

    Just don’t expect it to happen over night, because it won’t.

  31. ‘Is Dick Smith perhaps cosying up to Hanson because he sees an opportunity to replace Culleton as a PHON senator? Hanson certainly doesn’t like Culleton at all now.’

    Dick was copping quite a bit of blow back on Wendy Hamer’s morning show.
    His basic proposition that she wasn’t racist, but he’d never vote for her, but at least she was addressing some of the issues that the mainstream political parties ignore, was hard to fathom.

    A lot of his points re population grow and capitalism were extremely valid, but thinking that Hanson is the solution? WTF?

  32. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust · 1h1 hour ago

    .@billshortenmp says if the Adani coal mine ‘stacks up’ Labor welcomes the jobs the project will create in Queensland #auspol

  33. The PHONs are exactly like Dick Smith in one respect: they reckon that having continued net immigration at a rate of 150,000-200,000 is completely unsustainable for Australia.
    I agree with them.
    Smith has been on about this for decades. Neither Labor nor Liberals have shown the slightest interest in our human over-population problem

  34. I suspect that both leaders are being marked down because the Parliament looks so dysfunctional. But, at the end, of the day, voters will blame that on the Govt.

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