Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

What will presumably be the last Newspoll of the year adds to impression given by other pollsters of slight movement to the Coalition as the year draws to an end.

More evidence that the Coalition is ending the year in a very slightly better position than it’s been in over the past few months, this time courtesy of Newspoll in The Australian, which records Labor’s lead narrowing to 52-48 from 53-47 a fortnight ago. The Coalition now leads 39% to 36% on the primary vote, after a 38% draw in the last poll, with the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32% and up one on disapproval to 55%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 34% and steady at 51%. Turnbull holds a 41-32 lead as preferred prime minister, compared with 43-33 in the last poll. The accompanying report has further results on the salience of jobs, asylum seekers and same-sex marriage as political issues. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1629.

UPDATE (Essential Research): After a week at 51-49, Essential Research moves back a point in favour of Labor, who now lead 52-48. The most interesting aspect of the primary vote is that One Nation have gained a point to reach a new high of 8%, with the Coalition down one to 38%, and Labor, the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team steady at 36%, 9% and 3%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions records approval ratings for senior government ministers, which finds Julie Bishop to be by far the government’s most popular figure, with 52% approval and 23% disapproval. Christopher Pyne, Barnaby Joyce, Greg Hunt, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison more or less break even, but George Brandis has a net rating of minus 8%, and Hunt records a particularly high “don’t know” rating.

A “party trust to handle issues” question records a slight deterioration across the board for the Coalition since August, the biggest mover being “controlling interest rates”, on which their lead has narrowed from 12% to 7%. On a series of “party best at looking after the economy” questions, the Coalition has an 11% lead over Labor on “handling the economy overall”, but a less helpful 33% lead on “representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests”, with nothing separating the parties on “handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class” and “handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most”. Also canvassed: voluntary euthanasia, Gonski funding, climate change, and where we go when we die.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,249 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. I just don’t see how Malcolm can go to the next election without some sort of emission pricing scheme. Last election he was able to duck the issue with his nudge-nudge-wink-wink “review”. If he has the review and there is no scheme, surely he’s done. His hollowness will be undeniable. Indeed, he would have a good excuse for telling them to all go get f…ed and ride off into the sunset.

  2. TrogS,
    Deja vue all over again -or why we need consistent climate and energy policy in this country, why the Coalition policies are bullshit, and why we need to switch off fools like Bernardi, Bolt and Abbott.

    That is exactly what we need to do! As Trump showed in the US, there is no such thing as bad publicity, it’s all free publicity. So that’s exactly what the Bernardis, Bolts, Hansons and Abbotts are doing, getting free publicity by being outrageous and saying outrageous things to get sensible people outraged. Plus getting their hideous messages through to their followers for free.

    It’s why I shudder at the increasing number of reports here from 2GB and Bolt/Price etc. Don’t give them the oxygen they crave to get their vile beliefs further afield from the dank corners they inhabit. Let them rot there.

  3. C@Tmomma

    Last night’s The Drum was a shocker. Ruddock lectured on and on about remaining competitive with all other countries, which made any carbon pricing impossible. This is such an old theme. Meanwhile, Mundine was singing the “climate’s always changing” song, and inferring that he knew best because his ancestors walked across land to Australia.

  4. adrian @ #28 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 7:40 am

    ‘The wholesale importation of 457 and 417 Visa workforces has to stop.’
    What a strange definition of wholesale! 457 visa holders account for 0.84% of the total workforce.

    Much higher in particular sectors sunshine.

    Foreign IT workers are being imported into Australia in their thousands and paid significantly lower wages than qualified Australian IT professionals, many of whom often struggle to find jobs.

    The previously unpublished data from The Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI) reveals that many of the imported IT workers are Indians on 457 visas earning base salaries significantly less than the Australian average for Australian IT professionals.
    The report’s lead author is Dr Bob Birrell from TAPRI, and it is co-written by Ernest Healy and Bob Kinnaird.

    TAPRI has also lambasts the Indian IT lobby group — the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) — for statements that Indian IT services companies are paying well above the mandated income threshold for 457 wages.

    The study reveals that, in total, in 2015-16, 7452 computer analysts, programmers and networkers were imported into Australia under the 457 visa scheme.


  5. Her name is Palaszczuk.

    Sorry if that’s too difficult for white Anglo Saxons to cope with. She obviously should have changed it to Smith.

    (No apologies: I get p*ssed off mightily when people tell me I should change my name to “Sue” for political purposes. Like Annastacia, I don’t see why I should change my identity to suit the laziness of people like Trog)

  6. Zoomster

    Education should NOT be an either or situation.

    Fairly obviously our kids are NOT keeping up with others in the maths and sciences. To be an advanced rich nation we MUST train our share of high end scientists, because these are the people who make the breakthroughs or have the skills to adapt inventions to Australia’s needs. These jobs are the “middle class” of the future – IT people, engineers and scientists. Without them we will fall in status of very quickly and we will NOT attract investment. This will NOT be achieved while science and maths are taught by teachers who themselves lack the skill set and even worse by teachers who do not even accept or grasp the importance of maths and science.

    At the same time we must not neglect the struggling end and this DOES start with antenatal care. However to focus mostly on the struggling will undermine our WHOLE public education system.

    Particularly for those who value public education it is essential;l to get away from the mindset that public education is for the disadvantaged and the “slow.” Why would ANY parent with a bright child who likes reading and maths allow them to sit day in day out in a class room where they have already read the books and done the maths, especially where they actually have better maths, spelling and grammar than the teacher. Bright kids- especially boys become naughty and disruptive in such situations. Girls and some boys will spend their time chattering or passing notes.

    Rather than have their kids bored and naughty parents will send them to private schools or even opt for home schooling.

  7. Zoomster:

    Yes the deliberate misspelling of Palaszczuk’s name has been pissing me off too. If people can’t be bothered to get it right, they can at least refer to her as the Qld Premier.

  8. dtt

    I deliberately made it clear I wasn’t talking of ‘either/or’ but about where efforts should be concentrated.

    The evidence – that inconvenient stuff – is that our ‘high end’ kids are doing fine, and are up there with any in the world. What is dragging our comparative figures down is the low end kids – precisely the ones who suffer because of poor parenting practices, which includes poor parental understanding of health issues and the inability to provide educational support for their children.

    Bright kids are well catered for in modern public schools (my sons are a testament to that).

  9. Zoomster
    It is the choice of every person if they want to change their name to something easier. Now if you are Polish or Hungarian and there are lots of strange spellings, then you can either accept that MOST people will mispell the name or change the spelling, to fit the way the name sounds. This is just as true of some English names and many a Featherstonehoare has changed to Fanshaw. Now I find saying the name Palishay easier than say Plibisek but the spelling is much harder.

  10. Especially for Adrian, Sohar, P1 and other lovers of the ABC.

    The ever delightful Fran Kelly took the LNP through a world of pain on RN Breakfast this morning between 7:30 and 8:00am and then resumed again interviewing Adam Bandt after the 8 o’clock news.

    She had the idiotic Craig Kelly on for about 20 minutes and ever so gently payed out the rope for him to hang himself with his own and his colleagues stupidity.

    Very well done, but way too subtle for some.

  11. dtt

    ‘It is the choice of every person if they want to change their name to something easier’

    Exactly so. Palaszczuk has not made that choice, and Trog has no right to make it for her.

  12. Informative item from a friend:

    but there is more below that such as this gem:

    “And I’ll leave you with one set of numbers that I found today, which is just an absolute for this whole thing. In 2015, Wall Street Bonuses, not regular compensation, bonuses, seven years after they were bailed out with the public purse, totaled $29.4 billion dollars.

    Total compensation paid to every single person in this country who makes minimum wage totaled $14 billion…

    The era of neo-liberalism is over. The era of neo-nationalism has just begun.”

  13. Zoomster

    Which of your boys is an astrophysicist, actuary, mechanical engineer or mathematics teacher? I am not talking about ordinarily bright kids for whom mildly streamed classes will be sufficient, but for the kids who are really good at maths and sciences.

    Given that we KNOW the numbers studying advanced maths have dropped dramatically in NSW and Qld what you are saying is obviously wrong. So in NSW in 1960 there was a percentage of kids doing Honours in Maths, Chemistry and Physics and later on in the short lived Wyndham program numbers studying Level 1 or 2F Maths or Science. These are the kids who become our physicists, engineers and maths teachers, but if the high school numbers fall we will need to recruit these skills from overseas.

  14. Zoomster
    Quite, but nor can she expect us all to put the z in the right place. Most will fail (including me). I opt for avoidance and will say Anastasia P and Tanya P, although I think I have got Plibersek right now.

  15. Look mates, we’re all Aussie here, so we can just do the traditional Aussie thing and butcher their names by shortening and appending some suffix. The original spelling will be hardly relevant, then.

  16. You have reminded me of an anecdote from several years ago, from America, which had a much higher proportion of non-Anglo names.

    “Thank you for your order, sir. And what is your name?”
    Englishman. “Smith.”
    “And how do you spell that, please?”

  17. I was disorientated when i saw this in the GG

    Why Dutton got it wrong

    Immigration Minister Peter Dutton’s comments on Lebanese migration in the 1970s were simplistic and offensive.

    Fortunately o equilibrium was restored when I noticed the next two articles below that article.

    Dick Smith backs Hanson
    Dick Smith backs Pauline Hanson’s hard line stance on immigration and will advise One Nation in election.

    Migrant held for rape, murder

    A 17-year-old Afghan has been arrested for the rape and murder in Germany of the teen daughter of a top EU official.

  18. antonbruckner11 @ #36 #36 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 8:07 am

    Malcolm and the Libs…….
    I think people have gone from thinking that his smile/smirk was buoyant to thinking it’s menacing.

    I think it looks forced nearly all the time. Is that what is called a shit-eating grin?

    Every time I see it, I think ‘You poor bugger, you got into this mess and now you don’t know how to get out’.

  19. don @ #72 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 9:48 am

    antonbruckner11 @ #36 #36 Tuesday, December 6, 2016 at 8:07 am

    Malcolm and the Libs…….
    I think people have gone from thinking that his smile/smirk was buoyant to thinking it’s menacing.

    I think it looks forced nearly all the time. Is that what is called a shit-eating grin?
    Every time I see it, I think ‘You poor bugger, you got into this mess and now you don’t know how to get out’.

    The word ‘rictus’ seems to describe it. “a fixed or unnatural grin or grimace, as in horror or death.”

  20. Pallashay doesn’t deserve the respect or bother of spelling her name correctly. Just another parasite politician prepared to sell the environment down the river for a handful of jobs.

  21. dtt

    the youngest is doing engineering, and topping most of his classes. In most people’s opinion, the eldest is even cleverer at maths, but made a deliberate decision to study in a different area, because he thought it would be more of a challenge.

    As for Palaszczuk, yes, her name is hard to spell. However, most Australians master far more difficult names of sporting stars with relevant ease; laziness is really no excuse.

    And, of course, I was talking in a particular context. Trog isn’t here for me to clarify this, but he seemed to be using the ‘Australianised’ form of her name as a put down. Of course, he might have just been lazy.

  22. Desert Qlder,

    You are a Villanova boy ? I always knew you were a good bloke !

    I did grade 12 at Villa in 1973. Brandis was a year below me and I played rugby with Andrew Slack back in the day.

    Small world.


    Small world !

  23. Is this the time to complain about the countless misspellings of Richard Di Natale’s name that occur here? (rhetorical question only)

  24. dtt

    ‘Given that we KNOW the numbers studying advanced maths have dropped dramatically in NSW and Qld what you are saying is obviously wrong.’

    Given my sons were educated in Victoria, no.

    However, what all three states (and probably the others, too) have in common is a lack of Maths teachers (I’m constantly being offered retraining programs to become one, which fall down at the “I didn’t do maths in HSC” bar). Most schools I know have Maths classes delivered by PE teachers.

    This is because if you’re good at Maths, you have far brighter career prospects outside of teaching.

  25. India are phasing out coal imports by the end of this decade..

    ..Adani’s Carmicheal coal-field is ALREADY a ‘stranded asset’ ain’t going to happen end of..

  26. Trog

    and yet you didn’t mangle Turnbull’s name, which suggests it’s only wog names you think deserve ridicule.

    It’s a kind of racism.

  27. Confessions
    It has nothing to do with maturity it has to do with respect. Why should I respect a politician promoting something so fundamentally stupid? Should I also respect Abbott?
    What about Bernardi?

  28. peg

    If you want to be outraged by misspelling of di Natale’s name, be my guest.

    I respect people’s names here, and try not to mangle them. It takes a little effort sometimes, (and often a bit of googling), but courtesy often does.

  29. Trog

    Making fun of people’s names is something most of us grow out of once we leave primary school.

    And you still haven’t explained why you ‘respected’ Turnbull’s name and not Palaszczuk’s…oh, that’s right. He’s got a decent Anglo Saxon name, and we don’t insult those.

  30. I have a totally mangle-able first name, as those who know it know. I accept that people will get it wrong when they’re tackling it for the first time (after all, it took me three years to get it right myself…). If people continue to get it wrong, however (particularly if they’ve been politely corrected), I regard them as rude.

  31. TS

    Yes, don’t waste your time responding. It was obvious why you misspelt her name and what the agenda of those attacking you on it is. Let them hyperventilate.


    More Australians oppose the idea of funding infrastructure for the Carmichael coalmine than support it, although Queenslanders are more evenly split, a new poll has found.

    The Research Now poll commissioned by the Australia Institute, released on Tuesday, found that 41% opposed funding construction of infrastructure to help the Adani coalmine, compared with 26% who supported it and 33% who were undecided.

    But Queenslanders were 42% opposed to the infrastructure for Adani and 33% in support.

  33. It’s why I shudder at the increasing number of reports here from 2GB and Bolt/Price etc. Don’t give them the oxygen they crave to get their vile beliefs further afield from the dank corners they inhabit. Let them rot there.


    Under normal circumstances I wouldn’t give Price and Bolt the time of day. But after the fall of Abbott I started to tune in out of sheer schadenfreude. They represented the RWNJs that infest the Liberal party and they couldn’t find enough words in the English language to express their utter disgust and anger towards that traitor to the cause, Turnbull.

    It has been such a pleasure to hear them crying in their beer ever since, accusing Turnbull of being an agent of the left and demanding the reinstatement of Abbott. Every time I hear that, I am reminded of just how split and dysfunctional the Liberal party has become.

    It is not a case of “giving them oxygen”. It is a way of enjoying their pain and frustration – and that of their redneck, paranoid listeners – because that is what they all deserve with the cockeyed, selfish and ill informed views that they peddle.

    I think many PBs would be happy to read the reports I post for that very reason.

  34. The poll of 1,442 people asked how the $5bn Northern Australia infrastructure facility should be spent by asking them to vote for five priorities.

    Of the 11 options, the most popular were hospitals and health infrastructure (chosen by 75% of respondents), schools and universities (54%) and large-scale renewable energy projects (51%).

    Rail lines for coal trains (11%) and ports for coal export (7%) were the least popular options.

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