The return of Ipsos this week threw a spanner in the BludgerTrack works, since its results were starkly divergent from the trend of the other two pollsters, to an extent that went well beyond the pollster’s observed peculiarities before the election. In particular, the primary vote for Labor was four points below anything recorded by Newspoll or Essential since the election; the Coalition were about two points below its recent form; and the Greens came in about six points on the high side. My general strategy for bias adjustment had been to use half measures of the difference between election result and trend measurements for the relevant pollster, but that wasn’t remotely adequate to cover the peculiarity of this Ipsos result. So, for the time being at least, I’m incorporating Ipsos in a way that is all-but-neutral to the overall calculation, but in which the trendlines will be affected by the movement in Ipsos results (or will be, when there is more than one Ipsos result to go off).
Despite the Ipsos numbers having little impact on this week’s result, there has been a fairly solid move back to the Coalition on the voting intention reading, which partly reflects the recent trend of Essential Research, which has had Labor’s lead over the past fortnight narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. On the BludgerTrack seat projection, this translates into gains for the Coalition of two seats in Western Australia, and one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Here the Ipsos numbers did play a role, since its state breakdowns were particularly strong for the Coalition in Western Australia and South Australia. Ipsos also makes as much difference as it would always have done to the leadership ratings, the model for which begins with the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership. Reflecting to the overall strength of the Ipsos result for the Coalition, Malcolm Turnbull records a solid recovery on net approval, to the extent of almost closing the gap on Bill Shorten, and widened his lead as preferred prime minister.
[Citizen
Friday, December 2, 2016 at 12:49 pm
Bemused
These days with drones all the rage, I assume if you seriously wanted to attack parliament house you would use a drone. A fence will not fix that.
Yes! With a bomb cunningly disguised as a pizza for Big George. ]
That’s weird. My commentary disappeared. I meant to say something like:
Don’t give the terrorists ideas! Dominos has already delivered a pizza by drone in NZ.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/dominos-just-became-the-first-business-to-deliver-food-by-drone-2016-11
Knowing this government, they’ll probably pay for the $100m increase to Landcare by ripping another $100m from Landcare.
‘Knowing this government, they’ll probably pay for the $100m increase to Landcare by ripping another $100m from Landcare.’
Or more likely, some other environmental program.
Has anybody thought to ask dimwit (insert relevant politician of choice) about this?
lizzie
Thank you. I have observed these self-same wrens. They carry their little load of bling in order to help inform the world about evolution.
Except for Mr Pence of course.
He is a creationist.
One comment on radio this morning was that cost of living in Australia is considerably higher than in NZ, so a higher tax and cost of living does not make up for the superannuation concession.
Backpackers will still prefer NZ over OZ.
More importantly, the beer is better in NZ.
bob’s uncle @ #102 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 1:00 pm
It’s a given that the $100m will be taken from the Environment budget.
Standard quote from the Morrison playlist,
I am waiting for the triumphant Dirty Dealer DiNatale to let us in on the secret of what he agreed to cut in order to get $100 million into Landcare, thus reducing the actual Landcare funding cut under Abbott/Turnbull from $450 million to $350 million.
Perhaps reduced au pair subsidies?
Another interesting article in the SMH about post something politics:
David Simas, Obama’s political director, has described this phenomenon. “Through the same social media, you can find people who agree with you, who validate these thoughts and opinions,” Simas said. “This creates a whole new permission structure, a sense of social affirmation for what was once thought unthinkable.”
http://www.smh.com.au/world/fake-news-cnn-reporter-dumbstruck-by-donald-trump-voters-convinced-of-mass-voter-fraud-20161201-gt29ry.html
Maybe the au pairs can become au pears and pick fruit instead?
citizen @ #101 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 12:53 pm
That would have been my smiley. Known problem. Sorry about that.
You had your revenge – your square brackets caused my first attempt at replying to hit a brick wall.
DiNatale is actually more of a dimwit than I thought if he trusts the likes of Morrison on a ‘commitment’.
Has he been asleep for the last three plus years?
booleanbach @ #105 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 1:31 pm
Not if they want to see Australia. And some will no matter what.
So why the hell is the cost of living lower in NZ? I would have thought that it would have been the other way around.
** Did the Greens ask what was going to be cut to pay for the $100 million **
Both the ALP and LNP will blame the Greens for the cut. I really cant figure out why they stuck their heads up over the trench for this. They are in uncharted territory.
When can we expect the mid year budget announcement?
@ Adrian – because we are in post truth poll bludger.
Local Purchasing Power in New Zealand is 8.17% lower than in Australia
Consumer Prices in New Zealand are 2.11% higher than in Australia
Consumer Prices Including Rent in New Zealand are 4.90% lower than in Australia
So, if you are earning a wage in NZ and spending it in NZ, you can buy 8.17% less stuff than earning a wage in Australia and spending it in Australia.
Even for those earning foreign currency and spending it, they can buy more in Australia than NZ (assuming they live somewhere near a farm), where the distortions from negative gearing increasing rent in Sydney and Melbourne aren’t felt.
I am sure the government will want to use this argument from now on:
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/12/trump-booster-scottie-nell-hughes-gets-blasted-on-npr-after-saying-theres-no-such-thing-as-facts/
Oops, forgot the sauce. I would organise a poor bbq
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_countries_result.jsp?country1=Australia&country2=New+Zealand
Its a post-fact society we live in!
I thought all those Scandinavian backpackers would prefer to come to Australia and get cooked like a basted turkey under the sun.
SK
I expect it will be cuts to women’s shelters and the like.
We all know how Morrison thinks.
He is a good hater and a bit of practical and symbolic revenge would be just the thing.
After a mere 25 years, the triumph of the West is over
Twenty-five years ago — December 1991 — communism died, the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union disappeared. It was the largest breakup of an empire in modern history and not a shot was fired.
That era is over. The autocracies are back and rising; democracy is on the defensive; the U.S. is in retreat. Look no further than Aleppo. A Western-backed resistance to a local tyrant — he backed by a resurgent Russia, an expanding Iran and an array of proxy Shiite militias — is on the brink of annihilation. Russia drops bombs; America issues statements.
The West is turning inward and going home, leaving the field to the rising authoritarians — Russia, China and Iran.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/after-a-mere-25-years-the-triumph-of-the-west-is-over/2016/12/01/deebe24c-b7f7-11e6-959c-172c82123976_story.html?utm_term=.4d2dbf2216aa
Talking backpackers apparently Bali’s not what it used to be. We got warned off going this year. Friends of ours who go regularly say locals have taken a dim few of Australian’s recently, lots of thieving and the cops don’t care, people shouldering you at the markets sort of stuff.
Can’t think why Indonesians would feel that way (irony).
Ph_Red
But but but, what about the End of History and all that.
I will never forget one politics tutorial with a well respected international academic where I argued it was untrue that democracies do not turn bad and not true that democracies meant less war. I argued that these myths were produced by democracies as an arrogant self congratulatory pat on the back. I was howled down, especially by the tutor and her favourite savant sidekick student.
She never gave me good marks. She took pride in highlighting poor writing skills.
But I am over it.
Cow.
BW
Agree, Morrison is a nasty piece of work. His pay back will be vindictive.
In ‘fact’ I am not sure that the PM is Malcolm Turnbull at all. He behaves just like Tony Abbott. Perhaps there was no coup in 2015 and the PM just looks like MT>!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-duttons-portfolio-expands–his-investment-portfolio-that-is-20161202-gt2jfo.html
He is just the type of man who rages against Asylum Seekers yet owns six residential properties.
Simon Katich Friday, December 2, 2016 at 2:09 pm
Ph_Red
But but but, what about the End of History and all that.
Add these from the same issue Post :
An old foe awaits an untested President Trump
When Donald Trump first strides into the Oval Office as president, his perfect day is likely to be ruined by a file marked “North Korea.” Trump’s (first? only?) term in office may include either a messy confrontation with an unpredictable and highly combustible regime, or a rogue nation gaining the power to destroy large portions of Los Angeles with nuclear weapons. Or both.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-old-foe-awaits-an-untested-president-trump/2016/12/01/5bbe9004-b80b-11e6-b8df-600bd9d38a02_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.f53e6c44c263
AND :
Beware: The Russian bear is getting bolder
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/beware-the-russian-bear-is-getting-bolder/2016/12/01/5f8535ae-b738-11e6-a677-b608fbb3aaf6_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-b%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.c0cbd0b09d79
and seeing that Trump has just picked General James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis as his new defence secretary is his most outrageous hire yet — retired General James “Mad Dog” Mattis, famous for saying it was “a hell of a lot of fun” to shoot certain people.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/donald-trumps-thank-you-tour-off-to-shaky-start-with-cincinnati-arena-half-empty/news-story/5c0449b6e3ad54261a400b67c9bb8737
then I guess its interesting times ahead …
** Bali’s not what it used to be **
Bali is great for families who dont want to party but rather want a nice villa with staff to babysit, clean, cook etc and near a beach and good restaurants.
For backpackers there are SO MANY other places in Indonesia more worthy. Unfortunately these places have certain diseases (that Bali doesnt have) that put you off taking your kids to.
Phoenix
Just because the west backed the Syrian rebels, does not mean they were better than Assad. In fact we KNOW that some of them ate their enemies’ hearts and there is a bit of evidence of them holding civilians hostage and probably using chemical gases. And that is the rebels we “liked” no the evil Isis.
The reality is that ANY rebel movement, even where the cause is good is very likely to turn bad quickly. Backing rebel movements of any kind needs to be a last absolutely last resort for western governments. I am not saying rebellions are always bad in the net outcome, but consider the pain of the French revolution, followed by Robespierre and ultimately Napoleon. probably the net positives from the turmoil outweighed the negatives, but it is a close run thing.
Now you and many others preach anti Assad, Iran, China, Putin rhetoric, but are silent when it comes to their equivalent amongst our “friends”. Assad may be bad, but compared to Saudi Arabia he is a sweetie. Putin has killed a lot fewer journalists than the USA, and killed a lot fewer people too. Given that Russia has had by far and away the MOST appalling terrorism events in the world -the Beslen school horror makes 9/11 look like a picnic), it is surprising that they have NOT gone on a rampage against “enemies eg Saudi (who funded the Chechen rebels, responsible for Beslen).
By all means criticise Assad and Putin, but do so honestly and criticise Obama for killing US citizens via drone, for accidental bombing of the Afghan hospitals etc and of course Saudi for its appalling behaviour in Yemen.
Georgia were an ally against the Chechen Rebels. Yet Russia were supporting various separatist movements there for ages – eventually intervening directly.
The Great Game continues. Russia are active throughout the Caucuses and siding up to both Armenia and Turkey (despite a couple of hiccups). They are, ofcourse, still heavily involved in Central Asia.
And a pro-Russian just became president in Bulgaria which is already awash with Russian investors and tourists. I have even heard Russians are investing in (I would call it bargain hunting) Northern Greece.
An expansionist Russia with Trumps isolationist US? Can you have a game with only one player?
From my experience backpackers represent a form of foreign aid.
While yes, they will do some travelling in their time in places like Australia, Canada and New Zealand, a very important part of their stay is to recharge their bank accounts for their next hop to SE Asia or South America.
In my time in the UK, (5 years,) my primary focus was saving for my next trip to the Middle East or Asia. I still travelled the UK quite extensively, I spent money and have probably seen more of it than >90% of the locals, although going 50 km down the road would account for more than 50% in many places.
But the true value of places like Australia and the UK to travellers is what your money is worth when you leave and start travelling in developing countries. The multiplying effect of the exchange rate and reduced cost of living allows you to spend many months travelling in these areas for relatively little money.
I arrived in Cairo very late in the night and stayed at the airport until the morning. I got talking to a waiter in a coffee shop and we talked about our jobs, how much we earned and compared the cost of living in the UK and Egypt. In the end there wasn’t a huge difference in our relative standard of living. The real difference that existed was I could travel to Egypt and easily survive on my savings for a year or more, where if he went to London he would be lucky to last a week before he ran out of money.
Australia will still be an attractive place for backpackers compared with New Zealand because of the exchange rate differences on money earned but the tax may impact how much they travel in Australia as they still need enough money to survive in the developing countries they will travel to next.
This money is effectively foreign aid that is spent in developing countries in places and at levels that is often outside normal foreign aid areas.
daretotread Friday, December 2, 2016 at 2:28 pm
Phoenix
Now ***you*** and many others preach anti Assad, Iran, China, Putin rhetoric, but are silent when it comes to their equivalent amongst our “friends”.
*****************************************
No-one could have posted more anti- American exceptionalism items than ***me*** on here – and have frequently listed US civilian bombings in WW2 ( Dresden, Hiroshima …… ) Korea, Vietnam etc etc as WAR CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY by them ….
I am also no admirer of Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia ……. when it comes to crimes against humanity – and especially their own peoples ….
simon katich @ #115 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 1:50 pm
Morrison said just before Xmas.
The 18th I think.
Phoenix
Fair enough
I was just thinking of your most recent post.
The thing is re Assad there actually is scant evidence of him being particularly bad at all – or certainly not compared with Egypt, Saudi, Libya, Israel or even Jordan. Depending on whether you consider Palestine and west Bank as part of Israel or not (they occupy it for 50 years so i say it is now one country not two, but if so then Israel’s attacks on Palestinians make Assad look like Mother Theresa. the unrest is Syria was about oil pipelines and has nothing whatever to do with Assad’s “crimes.” Much of the criticism of Assad is because he is Allawi and the Sunni do not like the Allawi. It was Saudi meddling that cased a lot of the trouble.
Even Russia – sure Putin was vicious against the Chechens. After Breslin I guess it was all systems go. But be honest with yourself. If part of Australia – say North Qld, Let by Bob K and George C chose to secede and started blowing up army bases in Brisbane, how would a Bill Shorten government in Canberra react? Would Bill be sweetness and light and procedural fairness or would he “put it up em” to quote Corporal Jones?
It is easy to be judgemental on others sitting in Australia with nary a war like incident. but try to transpose the situations to something we might face and it all probability we would react far worse.
Shortie reckons he won’t be facing Malcolm at the next election and I regard him as a pretty good judge (albeit biased). I think that, by that time, Malcolm will have decided the whole job is much too hard and retired to the Cayman Islands. Why go through another election for these dickheads only to lose. Surely, that leaves Dutton or ScoMo. Or has Julie been looking like s… because they’re prodding her to challenge?
$100 million Land care.
All to be spent on protecting PH lawns
The answer is really very simple and that is to restore the complete separation between media and politics, and it is now possible to do this again (due to big data etc):
– Don’t go to lunch with politicians, meet with them only in proper settings. Anything that could be gleaned from lunch is already in the data, don’t waste time on lunch.
– Don’t employ former political staffers in the media. Their connections and inside knowledge are already in the data.
– Don’t have any dealings at all with former journalists and media people who become political staffers. The data cuts through their nonsense so by dealing with them a media organisation is simply placing itself at a disadvantage.
Data. Information. Bloomberg. Etc.
Interesting, they had machine voting in many polling booths in Bulgaria for the first time.
The company that managed this is Smartmatic (UK). They also did the Philippines election and in 16 States in the US election (Including Penn, Mich, Wi)
Antonbruckner11
How do you know that?
daretotread Friday, December 2, 2016 at 3:04 pm
Phoenix
Fair enough
**********************************************
All I worry about is TRUMP – for someone who seems to have NO SELF CONTROL of what he says or what he does ….. or even with his fingers on a phone tweet buttons ( let alone the FIRE MISSILES button ) – then throw in a few other mad-man on the OTHER side who seem to be gaining some authority ( as per the articles I posted ) …… then its a recipe for WW 3 to start over the mearest next Gulf Of Tonkin type incident …..
The Libs can prod JBish all the like, she isn’t dumb enough to go for the leadership. She’s been Deputy for so long, and would prefer a decade or two as deputy rather than a year or two as PM.
Antonbruckner11
Surely, that leaves Dutton or ScoMo. Or has Julie been looking like s… because they’re prodding her to challenge?
Truffles lost a bit of weight before he started the hunt and some commented that JB was looking a bit scrawny. So perhaps the ‘quote’ is now……………….
I think Shorty has seen Malcolm up close (he deals with him a fair bit) and just doesn’t think he’s going to do the distance. “I’ll put him away in the seventh” he was heard to mutter as he left one meeting.
Now that CFMEU has been demonised, please consider this.
http://linkis.com/www.abc.net.au/news/
Phoenix
Trump certainly is one helluva scary dude.
Now I freely admit that I thought Trump would be LESS likely to precipitate war with Russia than Clinton. I still think that, but with a little less certainty. On the other hand Trump is much more likely to ramp up war with Iran and even China. This of course will ALSO mean war with Russia. 30 years ago I might (jokingly) suggest that the whole nation be returned to King George but now the Brits are even crazier than Trump/Clinton and that is really, really scary.
So now I think I am calling for Canada to invade the USA, lock up all the loonies (maybe in Alaska) and try to get some sanity in the place.
This is a fascinating, but really long, article about how very wealthy people hide their wealth
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/magazine/how-to-hide-400-million.html?_r=0
The PH security problem is not the lawns, or the front edges of the lawns.
It is the back edges of some lawns which look down onto courtyards, passageways, office windows, etc, through which parliamentarians (and thousands of others during Sitting Days), cavort.
Antonbruckner11
So you are relying on one quote that somebody said ?
Good grief. Are they grooming Cash as a possible future leader ? This sort of flowery tripe is often a sign.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michaelia-cash-malcolm-turnbulls-secret-weapon-is-a-woman-on-the-rise-20161201-gt1oaj.html