BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Movement back to the Coalition on BludgerTrack this week, as Ipsos and Essential deliver the government relatively encouraging results.

The return of Ipsos this week threw a spanner in the BludgerTrack works, since its results were starkly divergent from the trend of the other two pollsters, to an extent that went well beyond the pollster’s observed peculiarities before the election. In particular, the primary vote for Labor was four points below anything recorded by Newspoll or Essential since the election; the Coalition were about two points below its recent form; and the Greens came in about six points on the high side. My general strategy for bias adjustment had been to use half measures of the difference between election result and trend measurements for the relevant pollster, but that wasn’t remotely adequate to cover the peculiarity of this Ipsos result. So, for the time being at least, I’m incorporating Ipsos in a way that is all-but-neutral to the overall calculation, but in which the trendlines will be affected by the movement in Ipsos results (or will be, when there is more than one Ipsos result to go off).

Despite the Ipsos numbers having little impact on this week’s result, there has been a fairly solid move back to the Coalition on the voting intention reading, which partly reflects the recent trend of Essential Research, which has had Labor’s lead over the past fortnight narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. On the BludgerTrack seat projection, this translates into gains for the Coalition of two seats in Western Australia, and one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Here the Ipsos numbers did play a role, since its state breakdowns were particularly strong for the Coalition in Western Australia and South Australia. Ipsos also makes as much difference as it would always have done to the leadership ratings, the model for which begins with the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership. Reflecting to the overall strength of the Ipsos result for the Coalition, Malcolm Turnbull records a solid recovery on net approval, to the extent of almost closing the gap on Bill Shorten, and widened his lead as preferred prime minister.

bt2019-2016-11-30

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,118 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  2. daretotread Friday, December 2, 2016 at 3:28 pm
    Phoenix
    Trump certainly is one helluva scary dude.

    So now I think I am calling for Canada to invade the USA, lock up all the loonies (maybe in Alaska) and try to get some sanity in the place.

    **************************************************
    Oh well – the loonies will fit right in with Alaska – they can get Sarah Palin – Former Governor of Alaska – to point out the spires of Moscow from her old backyard to them ……

  6. poroti Friday, December 2, 2016 at 3:33 pm
    Good grief. Are they grooming Cash as a possible future leader ? This sort of flowery tripe is often a sign.
    “Michaelia Cash: Malcolm Turnbull’s secret weapon is a woman on the rise”
    “Instead she’s wide-eyed, ebullient, buzzing with a caffeinated energy that’s equal parts intoxicating and exhausting. With her trademark theatrical hand gestures and exaggerated pronunciation, she’s a lip reader’s dream. ”

    ***********************************************
    A watch of the infamous Cash rant on youtube should cool things down a bit ( jeez imagine coming home to her after a hard days work down the salt mine )

    Michaelia Cash launches a vicious rant against the Labor ‘sisterhood’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD1Lvds3N9g

  7. DTT

    The thing is re Assad there actually is scant evidence of him being particularly bad at all – or certainly not compared with Egypt, Saudi, Libya, Israel or even Jordan. Depending on whether you consider Palestine and west Bank as part of Israel or not (they occupy it for 50 years so i say it is now one country not two, but if so then Israel’s attacks on Palestinians make Assad look like Mother Theresa.

    I was going to say that you were off your head, but I’ll give you the opportunity to explain how Israel’s conduct is the equivalent of deliberately using chemical weapons (confirmed by the UN, rather than by the same people who glory in the alt-right) and deliberately targeting aid convoys to commit as much murder as possible – especially children and civilians.

    No doubt you will point to Gaza but the two are simply not comparable in terms of the level of hurting civilians, the degree of any targetting of civilian targets, the evidence of targetting civilians being a deliberate and central part of strategy (except by Hamas), etc.

  8. Ms Cash wears the ABCC badge.
    That it is a bastard policy shambles does not matter to the Liberals.
    She actually scored a goal! See! The fact that it is largely an own goal does not matter.
    She probably won the election for Turnbull in Victoria with the Firey’s Gambit.
    The other winner, and this one is a winner, is that she sounds like a deplorable.

  9. After god had finished
    The rattle snake
    The toad and the vampire
    He had some awful
    Substance left over
    He made
    Journalist s
    Lawyer’s
    And Michaela cash.

  10. boerwar @ #158 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    Ms Cash wears the ABCC badge.
    That it is a bastard policy shambles does not matter to the Liberals.
    She actually scored a goal! See! The fact that it is largely an own goal does not matter.
    She probably won the election for Turnbull in Victoria with the Firey’s Gambit.
    The other winner, and this one is a winner, is that she sounds like a deplorable.

    She sounds like a bogan acting posh to me.

  12. dave Friday, December 2, 2016 at 4:07 pm
    After god had finished
    The rattle snake
    The toad and the vampire
    He had some awful
    Substance left over
    He made
    Journalist s
    Lawyer’s
    And Michaela cash.

    *************************************************************

    I put my hands on my hips, not caring if I sounded like a Billingsgate fishwife. “Yes, it was a dangerous thing to do, but as it seems to have escaped your attention, I remind you I am above thirty years of age, of sound body and mind, and in control of my own fortune. That means, ” I said, moving closer still, poking his chest for emphasis, “I am mistress of myself and answer to no one. “

  16. Raaraa – I wonder if Goldsmith reckoned he had no choice but to force a by-election and stand as an independent because he would have got trounced at the next election as a Tory. So not quite as principled as one might think

  17. She’s a screaming bowl of hatred.

    …………………………………………………

    She comes across as barely a human being – and thats saying something considering her ‘fellows’ within the tory partyroom.

  18. John Pilger on the the coming war on China
    https://newint.org/features/2016/12/01/the-coming-war-on-china/
    In my view, while there probably many in the US who would have wet dreams about engaging in a “real” fighting war with China the reality is that neither side could really sustain it. Troops on the ground? Bombing into submission? Atomic weapons? Can’t see it.
    What is quite feasible is a trade war but even then both sides would suffer with probably not much gain.

  20. tpof @ #147 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    This is a fascinating, but really long, article about how very wealthy people hide their wealth
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/30/magazine/how-to-hide-400-million.html?_r=0

    Thank goodness we have Mal the Magnificent in charge. He is very familiar with this shadowy world, and will no doubt put a stop to these rorts that rip off both the government he leads and the taxpayers who elected him … waiting … waiting …

  21. I’m a little stunned. Somehow I thought she was single.

    Cash is married to Richard Price, a barrister and the brother of late political journalist Matt Price.

  22. Magda Szubanski ‏@MagdaSzubanski · Nov 30  Sydney, New South Wales

    I know what my next film role is! I will play George Christensen in bio-pic of his life as a closet S&M lesbian!

  24. On Friday, the Queensland and Australian governments had to hand in their homework to the world heritage committee on what they were doing about those earlier concerns and this mass bleaching event.

    It was a dog-ate-my-homework moment.

    What we saw was re-announcement of old plans and no new funding. The government is risking a fail on their reef homework by underfunding their Reef Plan, delaying water quality targets, spruiking new coal and ignoring global warming after the worst coral bleaching the reef has ever seen.

    The federal government’s response plan to the worst-ever bleaching event on the reef says global warming was the cause but doesn’t include any action or new funding to address it.

    Worse still, the Australian and Queensland governments are still desperately pushing to open up the Adani mega coalmine which would put the Great Barrier Reef in grave peril.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/02/the-governments-report-on-the-great-barrier-reef-is-a-dog-ate-my-homework-moment?CMP=soc_568

  26. ‘What we saw was re-announcement of old plans and no new funding. The government is risking a fail on their reef homework by underfunding their Reef Plan, delaying water quality targets, spruiking new coal and ignoring global warming after the worst coral bleaching the reef has ever seen.’

    I am totally not surprised that none of these details were revealed on the putridly inadequate report on AM this morning.

    He said, she said churnalism at its worst.

  27. Lizzie

    From my recollection of Matt Price as a journo, he was an equal opportunity reporter on politics. I would say apolitical. His passing was not only a loss to his loved ones, but to political journalism

  28. Afternoon all.
    I have been busy taking in the afterglow of Mal’s triumph this week.

    This is an interesting post on the US electoral college.
    They calculate a number of scenarios to illustrate how the electoral college vote can differ from the popular vote
    Including a worse case.
    They compare the effects of unequal state vote distribution and the distortion introduced by winner takes all, where the candidate with the most votes gets 100% of the votes.
    https://medium.com/@heatherarthur/electoral-college-worst-case-scenario-cd6f93a76c35#.p4cwlnbz5

  30. Voice Endeavour at 10.14am:

    Speaking of, I was curious. Does Australia have a system in place for what would happen in that situation? Is our ultimate fallback the British line of succession – British monarch can appoint a GG, GG can call for an election.

    Ultimate fallback – I would imagine so, but I’m pretty sure that the state Governors can each act as the GG when required, starting with the most senior Governor, so actually relying on the British monarchy would be waaaaaay down the list.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dormant_commission

  31. Apologies for any double-up:
    Campaign Capital/ReachTEL poll has Labor leading 55-45 across eight Perth electorates.
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-opinion-poll-has-labor-on-track-to-win-election-20161201-gt1j8t.html
    On One Nation:
    “With One Nation unlikely to have the organisational base to staff polling booths across the metropolitan area, it is unlikely that One Nation preferences will flow as directed in any deal with the Liberal Party,” he said in a statement.

    “More likely, we will see preferences flow pretty evenly to both major parties, meaning that, other than keeping scrutineers up late into the evening on election night, One Nation’s impact in the Perth metro area could be negligible.”

  32. Victoria

    I agree with much of what Textor said but was what Howard doing properly called “Middle Class Welfare” . Look at the numbers Textor gave to be “middle class” (lower middle $48,000 to upper middle $125,000 in 2014) . Back in Howard’s day $ numbers would have been a fair bit lower. For Textor’s US figures the numbers quoted were for a 3 person household, not sure if the Aussie one were as well.

    From less than reliable memory a disproportionate amount of the loot went to people well above that bracket. So perhaps it was more Howard’s Upper Class “Wealthfare” ?

  33. Attn Bludgers, earlier this week (Wed I think) somebody published a reachtel for WA. 55-45 to Labor.
    … Thought you might be interested seeing as this is psephology site.

  34. Thank goodness the Libs called an end to the Age of Entitlement.

    A Turnbull government MP who charged taxpayers for flights to his own wedding has reported spending nearly $2000 for his wife to travel to a golf tournament in Queensland.

    Western Australian Liberal MP Steve Irons said he attended the December 2015 Australian PGA event on the Gold Coast to study “golf tourism opportunities” – reporting the trip as “electorate business”, despite representing the marginal Perth seat of Swan.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-liberal-steve-irons-charged-taxpayers-for-wifes-travel-for-queensland-golf-tournament-20161202-gt2t8n.html

  35. The Howard govt represented the most wasteful of waste when it comes to govt expenditure. Billions and billions of dollars thrown away or pissed up against the wall simply in the name of getting re-elected. The entire mining boom lost to future generations. Shameful.

  36. According to Channel “Gem”:

    “She’s the star of Love Child, who stole Australia’s heart, night after night…”

    This is someone called “Jessica Marais”.

    Should I be aware of this person’s importance to the nation?

  37. The age of entitlement is not over for ‘some’ –

    A Turnbull government MP who charged taxpayers for flights to his own wedding has reported spending nearly $2000 for his wife to travel to a golf tournament in Queensland.

    Western Australian Liberal MP Steve Irons said he attended the December 2015 Australian PGA event on the Gold Coast to study “golf tourism opportunities” – reporting the trip as “electorate business”, despite representing the marginal Perth seat of Swan.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wa-liberal-steve-irons-charged-taxpayers-for-wifes-travel-for-queensland-golf-tournament-20161202-gt2t8n.html

  39. Victoria seems to be trying to emulate SA in regards to electricity supply. Higher prices with lower reliability. The damaged potline at the Portland Alcoa smelter will cost around 250 million to restore after Thursdays blackout. The future of the smelter now in real doubt resulting in the loss of 600 direct jobs and about 2000 indirect jobs. A disaster for South West Victoria. Over to you, Dan Tehan, Roma Britnell, Tim Pallas , Daniel Andrews and Glenelg Shire Council.

  40. Confessions

    I think Mega George had it as be best part of $300 billion. Back when a $1 billion was worth something 🙂
    Not to mention Howie and Hammock Dweller setting up a budget structural deficit. Megalogenis at the time described it as like planning your household budget on the expectation that you will continue to win the lottery each week.

  43. Poroti:

    And the Liberals have the gall to accuse Labor’s carbon pricing of robbing future generations. Imagine that $300+ billion invested in meaningful infrastructure or social services instead of being gifted to households who had no genuine need for it.

  44. taylormade @ #189 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 6:58 pm

    Victoria seems to be trying to emulate SA in regards to electricity supply. Higher prices with lower reliability. The damaged potline at the Portland Alcoa smelter will cost around 250 million to restore after Thursdays blackout. The future of the smelter now in real doubt resulting in the loss of 600 direct jobs and about 2000 indirect jobs. A disaster for South West Victoria. Over to you, Dan Tehan, Roma Britnell, Tim Pallas , Daniel Andrews and Glenelg Shire Council.

    Dumbest comment for a long time.

  45. Confessions

    Waaaay back in the early years of the boom I read several articles suggesting a sovereign wealth fund a la Norway with their North Sea oil $. If only we had followed Norway.

  47. Bemused – Typical comment from the urban elite. Do you have any idea how hard it is to find work in regional Victoria ? I suppose in your ideal world, these workers can just transfer to all these clean energy jobs no problem at all.

  48. taylormade @ #197 Friday, December 2, 2016 at 7:29 pm

    Bemused – Typical comment from the urban elite. Do you have any idea how hard it is to find work in regional Victoria ? I suppose in your ideal world, these workers can just transfer to all these clean energy jobs no problem at all.

    I have sympathy for the workers and all others affected. But your statement was intended as an attack on the State Govt.
    Let me help you with a few facts:
    1. Kennett privatised the SEC – the State Govt does not own the generators, the transmission or the retailers.
    2. Since it is no longer Govt controlled, it is up to existing generators or new entrants to build any increased generating capacity based on commercial considerations.
    3. Ditto for transmission.
    4. So far, Hazelwood has not been closed and in fact extra generating capacity, gas fired, solar and wind has been added.

    So why are you attacking the State Govt if not to try to score political points?

  49. Confessions

    That was the thinking of Norway. Avoiding the distortion of the economy caused by the sudden influx of money.

    The “Dutch Disease” also got a mention. Looks like we got a dose of it.

    Dutch disease is the negative impact on an economy of anything that gives rise to a sharp inflow of foreign currency, such as the discovery of large oil reserves. The currency inflows lead to currency appreciation, making the country’s other products less price competitive on the export market

    http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=dutch-disease

  50. The currency inflows lead to currency appreciation, making the country’s other products less price competitive on the export market

    Yep that’s us in a nutshell.

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