Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Fairfax-Ipsos poll since the election comes in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll’s and Essential Research’s recent form.

We finally have a new player in the post-election opinion poll game, with Ipsos making its return for the Fairfax papers. It’s come in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll and Essential Research, recording a 51-49 lead, although I don’t know at this stage if that’s previous election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It’s both), since Ipsos provides both. The primary votes retain Ipsos’s pre-election peculiarity in coming in high for the Greens, at 16% compared with 10.2% at the election, and others, at 18% compared with 13%. That only leaves room for 36% for the Coalition and 30% for Labor, compared with 42.0% and 34.7% at the election. We are told that Malcolm Turnbull now has equal approval and disapproval ratings, and that Bill Shorten’s net rating is minus eight, though not the exact numbers (UPDATE: 45% apiece for Turnbull; 37% and 53% for Shorten, which I’d call a net rating of minus sixteen). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-30, which unlike the other measures is better for him than pre-election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Coalition has picked up a point in the Essential Research survey for the second week in a row, so that the pollster concurs with Ipsos in recording a Labor lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (up one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 7% (up one) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Other questions find 79% saying social class exists in Australia, versus 10% who say it doesn’t; 51% rating themselves middle class, 31% working class and 3% upper class; 52% perceiving the Liberal Party as mainly representing an upper class few purport to be a part of, compared with 17% for middle class and 3% for working class; 41% saying Labor mainly represents the working class, versus 16% for the middle class and 7% for the upper class; 31% saying One Nation mainly represented the working class, versus 7% for the middle class and 3% for the upper class; and a general recognition that the Greens didn’t reflect class one way or the other. A question gauging the importance of a range of issue priorities suggests that national security and the budget deficit rate less strongly now than they did in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 37
1 … 3 4 5 … 37

  1. Gee George Brandis QC SC is up in the Senate stated that the matter was wound up to save money that might of been paid out to litigation Barristers and his winding up of the matter saved the Govmint hundreds of millions of dollars.
    Ummmmm how much was it again that Geroge Brandis QC SC cost the Government when he defended the matter of Dreyfus seeking to see his diary content.

  2. The Nationals are feeling their oats

    The National tail has often wagged the Liberal dog in the Coalition over the years. I can recall for example a kerfuffle over the devaluation of the Australian dollar back in McMahon’s time (before the national currency became a plaything of international speculators). The Nats (then the Country Party) got their devaluation. McMahon was widely riduculed for giving in.

  3. Brandis giving a pretty terrible defence.

    “People were spending too long trying to work out the right answer, and I got impatient and decided the wrong answer now now better than waiting a few months for the right answer.”

    That does not cut it.

  4. ‘So Turnbull will get a gold medal every time he passes 1 piece of legislation according to the ABC. How low the standards have become for a government just doing what is their everyday job.’

    Just as well that they judged the Gillard govt by the same standard.

  8. In a nutshell

    Likes
    Tweets
    Rowan
    2m2 minutes ago
    Rowan ‏@FightingTories
    @ItsBouquet Looks to throw Hockey under the bus and starts to protect current MPs

  11. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Bevan Shields
    1m1 minute ago
    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields
    George Brandis working overtime to distance himself, Kelly O’Dwyer and Christian Porter from Joe Hockey’s actions on Bell case #auspol

  14. …the government’s frenzied bid to reintroduce a building industry watchdog before Parliament rises for the year.

    With all these negotiations and amendments, there might not be much more than a facade or a brand name left for the ABCC Bill.

    This is in keeping with their other efforts – aided and abetted by a lazy media who only sees things in terms of what will “play”, as written up in the columns they are just about to get started on.

    “NBN”? Keep the brand name, gut the rest.

    “Medicare”? Sell it off,piece by piece. Sool the AFP onto Labor as a nice diversionary tactice.

    “ABCC Bill”? Amend the shit out of it, then strut your victory.

    Mind youse, this is only ONE piece of legislation,among dozens, if not hundreds, still stalled because they are so stupid. Nowadays it getting so that if a government does what it supposed to do – pass legislation, any legislation – this is trumpeted as a major victory.

    Of course, with Gillard’s government, passing legislation wasn’t trumpeted at all, hardly even mentioned, almost an afterthought in the minds of the Gallery. So unimportant compared to renovations to her verandah 20 years before, or a shoe malfunction in Delhi.

    Electricity prices have gone up in the past year much more than they ever went up under Gillard. Has the Gallery even made a peep about this?

  17. I know I should be paying close attention to what Brandis is saying but his voice just drones on. But he is throwing Hockey under a cavalcade of double deckers.

  19. adrian @ #154 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    ‘So Turnbull will get a gold medal every time he passes 1 piece of legislation according to the ABC. How low the standards have become for a government just doing what is their everyday job.’
    Just as well that they judged the Gillard govt by the same standard.

    Exception reporting. Julia Gillard passed lots of legislation – so it was not reportable. For Turnbull to even pass one piece of legislation, on which he has to compromise and compromise and compromise, is quite exceptional. Hence the reporting.

  25. “Senator Brandis says he was not aware of Mr Hockey’s dealings with the WA government until March 4 this year.”

    @ The person who asked earlier.

    Clearly there is something very strong to stop Gleeson from speaking to the media/Senate. Brandis would not dare to make such a statement otherwise.

  26. Henry: “Who knew that Noel Pearson was such a c**t.”

    I was always a bit worried after I heard Tony Abbott describe himself as “channeling Noel Pearson.”

  27. Gleeson needs to issue a very simple statement that “Senator Brandis did advise me to not mount a legal case on behalf of the commonwealth”.
    Career over for Brandis if he does that.

  29. Green’s senator McKim nailing Brandis to the wall. No rebuttal by Brandis of WA newspaper’s claim that Brandis told the SG to run dead on the strongest defence in the HC case.

  30. The way the politicians throw around amounts of money is amazing.

    I remember Costello mentioning that during a meeting on GST at a point he whispered “400” to John Howard.

    Costello meant $400,000.

    Howard gave them $40m.

  32. McKim nails it:

    Greens senator Nick McKim:

    Let’s be very clear about what that allegation is. That allegation is that the Attorney-General instructed the then Solicitor-General Mr Gleeson to effectively run dead on the strongest argument he had at his disposal in the High Court…that statement that we have just heard from theAttorney-General did not rebut that allegation.

  34. Henry

    Gleeson needs to issue a very simple statement that “Senator Brandis did advise me to not mount a legal case on behalf of the commonwealth”.
    Career over for Brandis if he does that.

    He won’t do that. Gleeson has his own promising career prospects. George doesn’t.

  35. Richard Tuffin retweeted
    bernice finlayson
    10m10 minutes ago
    bernice finlayson ‏@berniceFinl19
    No matter that Brandis says Hockey made plans w/ WA & not him, there remains his instruction to SGen to ‘play dead’

  36. It’s pretty obvious this whole saga re: Bell Group was the federal toadies sop to the WA state toadies in relation to the GST carve up.
    “Look, we can’t alter the GST arrangements as that will piss off NSW too much, but here’s another great idea for you to close the gap”.
    The incompetence is breathtaking.

  37. brandis now being interviewed by PVO

    Sky News Australia
    41s41 seconds ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    A-G Brandis says the facts do not support the suggestion of corruption made by Labor and the Greens #auspol

    Sky News Australia
    1m1 minute ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    A-G Brandis says his decision was whether commonwealth should intervene on top of the ATO, which Justin Gleeson advised him to do #auspol

  38. This Bell Group thing is an absolutely massive story IMO: perhaps the biggest of its type in a long time. It could potentially just run and run and run.

    There are potentially umpteen lines of questioning to run on the issue. It’s a major crisis for the Turnbull Government, and Abbott is going to have some questions to answer about it too.

    It’s just amazing.

  39. CTar1

    There was a similar story around the ‘reversing the brain drain’ policy – Howard mixed up his figures, and the program was extended far beyond the number of years originally intended.

  41. Nothing to see here move along……

    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields
    Brandis says Mark Dreyfus goes too far and ought to “get over his obsession with me”
    “The weaker the argument, the stronger the rhetoric”

    3

    1

    Bevan Shields
    3m3 minutes ago
    Bevan Shields ‏@BevanShields
    George Brandis says Labor should feel “very foolish” because they can’t prove he has acted corruptly #auspol

  42. Here we go… what’ll this bloke say?

    Let me guess…

    “It’s all Labor’s fault!”

    (Before I’d even stopped typing he’d said it).

  43. HENRY – It’s also staggering they thought they would get away with it. The HC would have been apoplectic about being used to let state law override Cth tax law.

  44. Matthew Knott (did he used to work for Crikey?) in the SMH shows breathtaking naivete or something…

    ‘It is unclear how the ABC board would be instructed to change the way it conducts board meetings. The ABC guards its independence from government fiercely and could resist interference in its operations.’

  45. This liberal WA senator is useless and is entirely missing the point.
    It’s not about Burke, Connell, Bond, WA Inc etc.
    It’s about subverting commonwealth law for the benefit of the state.

  46. meher baba @ #188 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 1:00 pm

    This Bell Group thing is an absolutely massive story IMO: perhaps the biggest of its type in a long time. It could potentially just run and run and run.
    There are potentially umpteen lines of questioning to run on the issue. It’s a major crisis for the Turnbull Government, and Abbott is going to have some questions to answer about it too.
    It’s just amazing.

    …………………………………………………………………

    Yet ABC TV News in Sydney at Noon, made no mention of it.

    Pathetic.

  47. Kevin Bonham
    Monday, November 28, 2016 at 11:48 am
    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/poll-roundup-are-australian-voters.html

    I’ve updated my Poll Roundup with comments on this rather strange Ipsos poll.

    Thanks Kevin. I found having to scroll down to the latest entry a little counter-intuitive. I assume you figure the “Grumps” stuff is more interesting than a poll who’s primaries are hard to reconcile with other polls and the actual election result.

  49. Meher Baba
    Monday, November 28, 2016 at 1:00 pm
    This Bell Group thing is an absolutely massive story IMO: perhaps the biggest of its type in a long time. It could potentially just run and run and run.

    There are potentially umpteen lines of questioning to run on the issue. It’s a major crisis for the Turnbull Government, and Abbott is going to have some questions to answer about it too.

    It’s just amazing.

    Couldn’t agree more!

  50. Aftermath of election campaign raid by AFP:

    Leaked national broadband network documents seized by federal police are to be kept under lock and key.

    A privileges committee on Monday recommended the papers – now held in the clerk’s safe – be protected by parliamentary privilege and returned to opposition communications spokesman Jason Clare.

    In August, the AFP raided a parliamentary department with a warrant to seize material relating to – among other things – a member of Mr Clare’s staff.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/leaked-nbn-documents-to-be-protected/news-story/e78ff29bb1673a11139df171d26e6320

Comments Page 4 of 37
1 … 3 4 5 … 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *