Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Fairfax-Ipsos poll since the election comes in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll’s and Essential Research’s recent form.

We finally have a new player in the post-election opinion poll game, with Ipsos making its return for the Fairfax papers. It’s come in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll and Essential Research, recording a 51-49 lead, although I don’t know at this stage if that’s previous election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It’s both), since Ipsos provides both. The primary votes retain Ipsos’s pre-election peculiarity in coming in high for the Greens, at 16% compared with 10.2% at the election, and others, at 18% compared with 13%. That only leaves room for 36% for the Coalition and 30% for Labor, compared with 42.0% and 34.7% at the election. We are told that Malcolm Turnbull now has equal approval and disapproval ratings, and that Bill Shorten’s net rating is minus eight, though not the exact numbers (UPDATE: 45% apiece for Turnbull; 37% and 53% for Shorten, which I’d call a net rating of minus sixteen). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-30, which unlike the other measures is better for him than pre-election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Coalition has picked up a point in the Essential Research survey for the second week in a row, so that the pollster concurs with Ipsos in recording a Labor lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (up one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 7% (up one) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Other questions find 79% saying social class exists in Australia, versus 10% who say it doesn’t; 51% rating themselves middle class, 31% working class and 3% upper class; 52% perceiving the Liberal Party as mainly representing an upper class few purport to be a part of, compared with 17% for middle class and 3% for working class; 41% saying Labor mainly represents the working class, versus 16% for the middle class and 7% for the upper class; 31% saying One Nation mainly represented the working class, versus 7% for the middle class and 3% for the upper class; and a general recognition that the Greens didn’t reflect class one way or the other. A question gauging the importance of a range of issue priorities suggests that national security and the budget deficit rate less strongly now than they did in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. doyley @ #95 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 9:54 am

    A quick question if I may to those with legal expertise.
    If a enquiry is held into the actions of Brandis can Justice Gleeson, if called before the enquiry, give evidence as to what conversations were held between himself and Brandis and what directions Brandis gave him or is he bound by some legal constant which would restrict his ability ?
    Cheers.

    My best guess is that he could, if asked. It depends on who was Gleeson’s ‘client’ for the purposes of the advice. It looks to me like it was the ATO, not the Attorney-General. But if the Government as a whole is the ‘client’, Gleeson would regard himself as bound by legal professional privilege (LPP). Gleeson, both on ethical grounds and because he needs to ensure his reputation for trustworthiness, would be extremely careful not to breach any duty of LPP.

    More fun and games to go on with.

  6. I prefer to see what happened as a conspiracy to defraud the Australian Tax Office and, therefore, the Australian taxpayer.

    You’ve gone right down the rabbit hole and are taking advice on the language from invisible talking cats when you don’t think corruption is an appropriate word to describe conspiracy to defraud the Commonwealth.

  7. TPOF – I would be very surprised if the government tried to insist upon legal professional privilege. They are the government, not a private client. It would be a very cheap ruse and basically an admission of guilt.

  8. I’ve been writing about the federal budget for 43 years, for 28 of which it’s been in deficit.

    So almost two-thirds of my career has been spent backing up Treasury in its recurring campaigns to pressure the government of the day to get the budget back to surplus. Sorry, not any more.

    …I’ve stopped because, in all that time, there’s been no sign of a learning curve. Treasury goes about attempting repair of the budget in just the same primitive way it did in the mid-1970s.

    In all that time it’s learnt almost no new tricks. It’s applied no new science to its core responsibility of expenditure control, just kept on with the same old, same old simplistic cost-cutting approach.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/smarter-thinking-on-the-budget-deficit-is-long-overdue-20161126-gsy5v6.html

  9. Speaking comparatively of the incomparable Mr Cohen, with the exception of members / past members of his band / touring party like Sharon and the Webb sisters (Hattie has an album in development on pledge music for anyone interested) and I make a special exception for Rufus Wainwright, anyone that does a tribute version of Hallelujah should be taken outside and shot, anyone who does a bubble gum tribute version of Hallelujah should be (Andre Rieu I’m looking at you) should be waterboarded and otherwise tortured extensively before being shot.

  11. Likes
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    Sky News Australia
    2m2 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    #BREAKING @fitzhunter says Labor will maintain support for a 10.5 per cent backpacker tax rate and not government’s 15 per cent rate #auspol

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    Sky News Australia
    6m6 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@Bowenchris says Labor will continue to support a 10.5 per cent backpacker tax. More: http://bit.ly/2gA04nU http://snpy.tv/2fU2Xz6

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    Sky News Australia
    7m7 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@Bowenchris says Labor will ‘maintain its consistent position’ on the backpacker tax after government announced compromise deal #auspol

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    Sky News Australia
    9m9 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust

  12. ratsak @ #106 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 10:33 am

    I prefer to see what happened as a conspiracy to defraud the Australian Tax Office and, therefore, the Australian taxpayer.
    You’ve gone right down the rabbit hole and are taking advice on the language from invisible talking cats when you don’t think corruption is an appropriate word to describe conspiracy to defraud the Commonwealth.

    Ratsak, my point was avoiding detailed definitional discussions of corruption. Of course, you can use any word you like.

  17. Business warns Abbott: We don’t want you

    THE most damaging move Tony Abbott has launched against Malcolm Turnbull is to make political swear words out of “agile” and “innovative”.

    It’s a kick in the guts to the Turnbull forward economic plan and a swipe at the Prime Minister’s personal style in addition.

    And it is also a major worry for the most active innovators in the economy, small business, which revealed today it had given government MPs anti-Abbott warnings.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/backlash-over-expms-attack-on-turnbulls-innovation-policy/news-story/368608b3831dd2d11466f351895fbe94

  18. antonbruckner11 @ #107 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 10:35 am

    TPOF – I would be very surprised if the government tried to insist upon legal professional privilege. They are the government, not a private client. It would be a very cheap ruse and basically an admission of guilt.

    That would never faze this government. They are firm believers in covering up all the evidence for as long as possible and then claiming there is no evidence – see what is happening on Nauru and Manus for example. And, as the issue in question shows, this Government thinks being a model litigant means having the legal team fronted by Jennifer Hawkins.

    Not only will this government breach every ethical standard in its pursuit of self-preservation, it will do so with an eye only on the next 24 hours, because it is utterly lacking in strategic nous. If they can get away with it, they will certainly insist that Justin Gleeson is subject to LPP – and the msm will lap it up. They certainly won’t point out to the masses that this is an admission of covering up.

  19. Shorten just put a comprehensive 457/jobs bill to the house because the govt is too incompetent to do so … hahaha governing from opposition, again

  20. Interesting that Scott Morrison went to Hanson with a compromise.

    I would be surprised if the Nationals were not a bit peeved atm over this deal. Hanson will play it for all it is worth as a win for PHON and the party standing up for regional Australia.

    That will not go down well with Barnaby and his party room irrespective of what he might say. The nationals have been caught with their pants down and Morrison and Hanson appear to have sidelined the Nats big time.

    Perhaps this result might harden the Nats party room against any compromise with Senator X. They need to be seen to benstandngnup for their base on something after the backpacker deal so perhaps the water issue is the one.

    Cheers.

  21. Scott Morrison is bleating (or maybe shouting) about Labor “playing politics” and “phoney in this is Bill Shorten and the Labor Party who are quite happy just to blow up the show, blow up the budget on every single occasion”.

    What, just like the Coalition in Opposition. Suck it up, princess.

    Actually, I’m happy that the rate is 15% and would not have been upset at 19.5%. It seems reasonable, a future Labor Government will need the money and it’s no big deal in the big scheme of things. On the other hand, it would be great if the ABCC Star Chamber goes down in a heap, but I’m not hopeful.

  22. ‘Speaking comparatively of the incomparable Mr Cohen, with the exception of members / past members of his band / touring party like Sharon and the Webb sisters (Hattie has an album in development on pledge music for anyone interested) and I make a special exception for Rufus Wainwright, anyone that does a tribute version of Hallelujah should be taken outside and shot, anyone who does a bubble gum tribute version of Hallelujah should be (Andre Rieu I’m looking at you) should be waterboarded and otherwise tortured extensively before being shot.’

    Indeed. One of the most abused and misinterpreted songs in recent history.

  23. TPOF – If Georgie gets up in Parliament and refers to any discussions he had with Gleeson that will basically be a waiver of privilege anyway. Further, I’m not sure of the extent to which LPP can be claimed before Parliamentary committees.

  24. Thus Spake Mungo: Nats on steroids
    By Mungo MacCallum

    The Nationals are feeling their oats – also their sugar, their water and their pump-action shot guns. Quite suddenly the traditional party of conservative rural socialists are turning feisty and uppity – partly in self defence, but largely just because they can.

    The new rambunctiousness arrived with the new leader, Barnaby Joyce, generally seen as the loose cannon needed to shake up the somewhat torpid regime of Warren Truss. Joyce was always going to be a bit of a risk, but one that was worth taking: the Nationals were generally seen as a rather limp appendage of the Liberal Party dog. And initially, at least, the risk worked: the Nationals did far better in the July election than their coalition partners and secured an extra cabinet position and enhance portfolio responsibilities as a result.

    But logic and evidence has nothing to do with it: leave the sugar farmers alone. They are just the sort who would defect to Hanson at the slightest hint of weakness. And so it is with the cotton growers of the north: extraordinarily, Joyce pre-empted a long-standing agreement to add 450 gigalitres of water down the Murray to the parched south in order to protect his constituents in Queensland and New South Wales.

    Naturally there was an explosion from Nick Xenophon in support of his fellow Croweaters: settle this now – stick to the contract or my party and I will play not speak about anything else, and most especially about the so-called vital legislation in the senate.

    And the same, in spades, applies to the backpackers tax – Joyce went a still wilder shade of beetroot: this would mean the foreign devils would be taxed less than the hard working (in the unlikely event they were willing to work at all — that was why we needed backpackers, remember

    The Nats may not yet be out of control, but they represent a far more frightening prospect to Turnbull and the Libs than the crossbenchers ever will. With friends like these…

    MUCH, MUCH MORE : http://www.echo.net.au/2016/11/thus-spake-mungo-nats-steroids/

  26. antonbruckner11 @ #123 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 10:57 am

    TPOF – If Georgie gets up in Parliament and refers to any discussions he had with Gleeson that will basically be a waiver of privilege anyway. Further, I’m not sure of the extent to which LPP can be claimed before Parliamentary committees.

    Neither am I. Which is what makes it interesting. My main point, though, is that Gleeson will be most interested in making sure to protect his post S-G professional reputation and will carefully think through and research exactly how he would approach any parliamentary enquiry and what he can and cannot and will and will not say.

  27. [I do a very stirring version of “Hallelujah”, which I used to sing to my sons as a lullaby.]
    Almost child abuse crushing them at such a young age with broken and lonely hallelujah (just kidding I’m sure you sang wonderfully)!

  28. If the ABCC bill passes this week The ABC tells us that

    With Parliament rising at the end of the week, passing the bill in coming days would give Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a triumphant end to the year.

    There you go folks “triumphant” it will be. After such a shit time since the election Turnbull will be a master politician. Hard to believe hey?

  29. As someone who in my early years was often outdrawn and shot in love, perhaps if I’d been taught to shoot at someone who outdrew me earlier it would have been helpful.

  32. tom hawkins @ #128 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 11:08 am

    If the ABCC bill passes this week The ABC tells us that

    With Parliament rising at the end of the week, passing the bill in coming days would give Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a triumphant end to the year.

    There you go folks “triumphant” it will be. After such a shit time since the election Turnbull will be a master politician. Hard to believe hey?

    And Australia had a triumphant end to its series of test matches against South Africa.

  33. AB11

    I doubt Hockey had anything to do with Directive by Brandis that has since been disallowed. Brandis needs to own this crapola. Of course, if it includes Hockey, Abbott, Porter and ODwyer, all the better

  34. tom hawkins @ #128 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 11:08 am

    If the ABCC bill passes this week The ABC tells us that

    With Parliament rising at the end of the week, passing the bill in coming days would give Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull a triumphant end to the year.

    There you go folks “triumphant” it will be. After such a shit time since the election Turnbull will be a master politician. Hard to believe hey?

    Knowing Turnbull’s luck, his ABCC Bill will be defeated in the Senate by 1 vote due to a Liberal Senator abstaining.

  35. “One more point to note about this backpacker debacle.

    While the headline rate of the tax – if passed – is 15%, it is actually closer to 24%.

    Why?

    Because the savings measures already passed to pay for the shortfall include a 95% tax rate on the 9% superannuation paid for by growers on behalf of backpackers. That ensures that the lot – the full 9% – will go to government. Which backpacker will bother applying to claim 5% of their super when they leave?

    Growers are pretty cranky about this and it has not gone unnoticed.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2016/nov/28/turnbulls-agenda-hangs-in-balance-as-minor-party-support-skyrockets-politics-live

    Considering that most of the people doing this are working for the harvest season only, spending the rest of the financial year studying or traveling, that is a phenomenal amount of tax.

    Lets say Jean picks fruits for 12 weeks of the year, earning $20 an hour for 50 hour weeks. She earns $12,000, of which she gets to keep $10,200 after tax. She also earns $1140 in super, of which she gets to keep $57 after tax, but she does not claim it because the time taken makes it not worth it.

    Total earnings, $10,200. Total expense to farm, $13,140. Tax paid, $2960 (22.5%)

    Lets consider John, an Australian working a 12 week contract, earning a $0.5 million annual salary. So they earn $115384. They find exactly $5384 of deductions, non of which are particularly justified. They also earn super of $10,962. They pay tax of $28,647 (22.6%).

    John and Jean pay the same tax rate, within rounding. They both work for 12 weeks. John’s super is higher than Jeans salary + super.

    This backpacker tax is complete bullshit.

  36. Photos
    Likes
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    Sky News Australia
    7s7 seconds ago
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    .@Nick_Xenophon says there are still a number of hurdles to overcome regarding ABCC legislation #auspol

    Sky News Australia
    2m2 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@Nick_Xenophon says the compromise on backpacker tax includes a deal to allow Australian jobseekers to earn up to $5000 without penalty

  37. To elaborate on the above.

    All this negotiating from 32.5+0.5 down to 10.5+9.5 is completely missing the point. It completely ignores what is the most fundamental aspect of income taxes in every country – they are progressive.

    What Australia should be focusing on is collaboration with tax offices in friendly countries. Lets say a person earns $x in a foreign country in the financial year, and $y in Australia, the amount of tax they should be required to pay in Australia is the amount of tax a domestic resident would pay earning $(x+y), multiplied by y, divided by (x+y). Then, the other country can make them pay tax on the amount a domestic resident in their country would pay earning $(x+y), multiplied by x, divided by (x+y).

  38. Scott Mitchell ‏@FedNatDirector · 27m27 minutes ago

    I have this morning informed @The_Nationals Party room & organisation that I will be stepping down as Federal Director in early 2017 #auspol

  39. Joke?

    The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has emerged as the latest bargaining chip in the government’s frenzied bid to reintroduce a building industry watchdog before Parliament rises for the year.

    Fairfax Media understands that Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm has linked his support for the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) to changes to the way the ABC board conducts its meetings. Senator Leyonhjelm’s vote will be crucial for the government to pass its bill to reintroduce the ABCC, one of its double dissolution election triggers.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-board-meetings-emerge-as-david-leyonhjelms-latest-abcc-bargaining-chip-20161128-gsyvua.html

  40. What a great welcome to Canberra Airport. Walked right into Erica!

    I presume they have decontamination facilities at the airport?

  41. It’s weird but every day where I live someone, somewhere around here plays pachelbell’s canon, always at 11.30am. Just heard it again, drifting on the breeze. Must be a local school perhaps but I can’t pin down where it’s coming from.
    It was my wedding waltz, (said wedding ended in divorce, although we are still good friends) and instantly takes me back to that day.
    Go figure.
    Nostalgia aint what it used to be.

  42. I came across the little runt Greg Hunt last week in a hotel in Sydney.
    I would have blasted him where it not for my business colleagues, they may have been embarrassed.

  43. It gets stranger and stranger:

    The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has emerged as the latest bargaining chip in the government’s frenzied bid to reintroduce a building industry watchdog before Parliament rises for the year.

    Fairfax Media understands that Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm has linked his support for the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) to changes to the way the ABC board conducts its meetings. Senator Leyonhjelm’s vote will be crucial for the government to pass its bill to reintroduce the ABCC, one of its double dissolution election triggers.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abc-board-meetings-emerge-as-david-leyonhjelms-latest-abcc-bargaining-chip-20161128-gsyvua.html

  44. So Turnbull will get a gold medal every time he passes 1 piece of legislation according to the ABC. How low the standards have become for a government just doing what is their everyday job.

  46. So how would Leyonhjelm like the ABC to conduct it’s meetings?
    More Tim Tams on the table?
    The bloke is really a fool, to think he was a vet in a former life.
    Where do his qualifications come from I wonder, University of East Bum Crack?
    Coh!

  48. Fairfax live blog:

    11:34am
    It’s a press conference conveyor belt in the Senate courtyard right now.

    Derryn Hinch has stepped up to say he “needs more time”, possibly 24 hours, before he can say how he will vote on the construction watchdog legislation.

    So today we have Xenophon, Hinch and Leyonhjelm still ‘negotiating’ on ABCC. What will PHON (or its constituent parts separately) have to say? Turnbull’s end of year triumph is looking somewhat less certain.

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