Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Fairfax-Ipsos poll since the election comes in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll’s and Essential Research’s recent form.

We finally have a new player in the post-election opinion poll game, with Ipsos making its return for the Fairfax papers. It’s come in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll and Essential Research, recording a 51-49 lead, although I don’t know at this stage if that’s previous election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It’s both), since Ipsos provides both. The primary votes retain Ipsos’s pre-election peculiarity in coming in high for the Greens, at 16% compared with 10.2% at the election, and others, at 18% compared with 13%. That only leaves room for 36% for the Coalition and 30% for Labor, compared with 42.0% and 34.7% at the election. We are told that Malcolm Turnbull now has equal approval and disapproval ratings, and that Bill Shorten’s net rating is minus eight, though not the exact numbers (UPDATE: 45% apiece for Turnbull; 37% and 53% for Shorten, which I’d call a net rating of minus sixteen). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-30, which unlike the other measures is better for him than pre-election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Coalition has picked up a point in the Essential Research survey for the second week in a row, so that the pollster concurs with Ipsos in recording a Labor lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (up one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 7% (up one) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Other questions find 79% saying social class exists in Australia, versus 10% who say it doesn’t; 51% rating themselves middle class, 31% working class and 3% upper class; 52% perceiving the Liberal Party as mainly representing an upper class few purport to be a part of, compared with 17% for middle class and 3% for working class; 41% saying Labor mainly represents the working class, versus 16% for the middle class and 7% for the upper class; 31% saying One Nation mainly represented the working class, versus 7% for the middle class and 3% for the upper class; and a general recognition that the Greens didn’t reflect class one way or the other. A question gauging the importance of a range of issue priorities suggests that national security and the budget deficit rate less strongly now than they did in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 37
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  1. Hockey should not only answer but be recalled from his post…..

    Wayne Swan
    Wayne Swan – Verified account ‏@SwannyQLD

    Clear that Brandis must resign, Hockey must also answer why he sold out the interests of the Commonwealth to WA mates #auspol
    12:43 PM – 27 Nov 2016
    13 RETWEETS11 LIKES

  2. Photos

    Likes
    Tweets
    John Wren
    2m2 minutes ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    When @Nick_Xenophon does roll-over on #abcc, he will bear the ignominy of being out-negotiated by the idiot @SenatorCash. #auspol #sapol

    2

    1

    John Wren
    6m6 minutes ago
    John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950
    Watch @Nick_Xenophon roll-over on #abcc. He is unadulterated #libfilth at heart. #auspol #sapol

  4. I’ll read and report on the GG articles in more detail, from their polishing you would think Turnbull a master strategist.

  5. According to the ABC live blog:

    The Government is one step closer to passing the final piece of its industrial relations legislation after agreeing on a deal with Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm.

    My colleague Tom Iggulden got the scoop this morning, and a formal announcement is likely to be made later today.

    Senator Leyonhjelm confirmed the Government had agreed to one of his demands on removing reverse onus on proof, which will effectively raise the standard of evidence required to prove criminality on building sites

    He told reporters outside Parliament House this morning that there were “some little details to be tidied up”, but the agreement had been made.

  6. Our fruit industry has serious problems, and we’re dancing around them.

    A couple of decades ago, fruit picking paid a decent wage. Australian pickers used to follow the circuit; Uni students picked fruit on their summer break; Aussie travellers factored in a spot of fruit picking as a way to shore up their finances and extend their trip.

    Now farmers rely on backpackers – or virtually slave labour – to get their fruit picked.

    According to the tenets of capitalism, if you can’t pay enough to attract workers, then you’re not a viable industry and your operations should move elsewhere.

    Another problem is water. Although cotton and rice are much maligned, they are annual crops. If the water isn’t available to grow them, then they’re not grown. If climate change means that there never will be enough water to grow them, then they won’t be grown.

    Fruit crops, however, are (in the main) permanent plantings. A pear tree which isn’t watered for one summer is a dead pear tree.

    This used not to be a problem, because we grew our fruit in high rainfall areas (I never water my fruit trees at all). Now, however, most of our fruit crops are irrigated, planted in country where they otherwise couldn’t survive.

    If we head into an era of decreased water availability, our present orchards will struggle to survive.

    Interestingly, a huge apple orchard is presently being established a little further up my valley, and extensive plantings of hops are happening as well. Perhaps the penny has dropped for some.

  7. Tony Windsor
    Tony Windsor – ‏@TonyHWindsor

    Brandis will go over the WA scandal and so he should ..real test for Malcolm to show some strength .NEED FED ICAC now.
    12:51 AM – 27 Nov 2016
    368 RETWEETS410 LIKES

  10. Laura Tingle said yesterday “It’s not corrupt behaviour because there is no suggestion that Brandis received any personal financial gain” from what he did re WA/Bell legislation..

    Surely, if the intention of his allegedly illegal/unconstitutional actions was to benefit the WA branch of his own party to the detriment of the Commonwealth Govt/taxpayer to the tune of >$300Million, then that constitutes corruption..

  12. In fifteen years, Dutton has learned nothing, improved nothing.

    In his maiden speech to parliament, Dutton spoke of “unacceptable crime rates, causing older Australians to barricade themselves in their homes” and “households where up to three generations—in many cases by choice—have never worked in their lives”. All this he blamed on “the boisterous minority and the politically correct” and suggested people “are fed up with bodies like the Civil Liberties Council and the Refugee Action Collective, and certainly the dictatorship of the trade union movement”. Dutton also argued that when it came to law enforcement, people should have less right to privacy.

    http://theaimn.com/peter-duttons-character-test/

  13. Gawd, imagine having a chrissy party with the bogans from one nation; Culletton, Hansen, Roberts etc. You would corral them in the far back corner where they couldn’t embarrass themselves or you too much.

  14. “The security alterations at The Lodge have created a pretty depressing entrance”. Australian politicians are almost as physically ugly as they are mentally ugly.

  15. If Xenophon backs down on the MDB water agreement ..he’s politically dead in SA. That means he’s politically dead, full-stop!!

  16. Sohar

    The inability of male politicians to coordinate their clothing (or shorten their trousers) stands out against the well-dressed women.

  17. Tingle was poor on Insiders yesterday, stammering and quite hesitant.
    She is better in print.
    Since when is defrauding the commonwealth not corruption?

  18. Lizzie

    I’d forgotten it was Dutton. What a nasty piece of work he is.

    In 2008 he was the only member of the Opposition front bench to walk out during Kevin Rudd’s apology to the Stolen Generation.

  19. Victoria..

    The whole panel seemed to be down-playing the Brandis/WA scandal ..but, to suggest corruption only applies if one individual benefits from the illegal activity flies in the face of any accepted definition of corruption..

    Imagine the screaming headlines and baying for blood if this had involved a Labor AG..

    I noted Insiders spent at least twice as much valuable air-time discussing the PHON sideshow as they did on ‘Brandisgate’..

    But, of course, we all know the ABC shows no bias at all ..as a certain PB poster keeps telling us..

  20. Poroti / Lizzie..

    If my memory serves ..Wilson (Ironbar) Tuckey & Sophie (Puff-adder) Mirabella also boycotted Rudd’s stolen generation apology..

  21. JR – the GG stories (I pick up a copy in reception and slip it inside a brown-paper wrapper) are interesting because they are obviously the best informed about what’s going on in the govt. It seems that:
    1. Turnbull has made a big concession to Xenophon on the ABCC which means that builders who stiff contractors won’t get govt contracts. I suspect that will drive the lib builder mates bonkers because they think that’s their god-given right.
    2. Barnyard and his Nats crew are basically saying that there is no 450 gigalitres to give to SA. The proposals Xenophon have put forward are already part of the basin plan.
    There are no signs of what Xenophon is going to do about 2.

  22. One of the weird things about the whole Brandis saga is that, according to the GG, Joe Hockey set up the whole scam (and Georgie was just a facilitator). But Hockey was in charge of the ATO. So why didn’t Hockey tell the ATO to pull its head in. Presumably, because he didn’t have the power to interfere with ATO litigation. does that sound right? So they went looking for another avenue via Georgie.

  23. From Crowe’s article in the GG ‘Turnbull in race to save IR agenda’.
    ‘The PM has signed off on tough new rules to withhold lucrative government contracts from builders who fail to pay their subcontractors on time, offering Senator Xenophon the assurance of good faith in the talks on water reform.’

    Also
    ‘Mr Turnbull is also canvassing new pledges to improve the Murray Darling river system in a last minute bid.’
    They want to promise SA will get the 450GL by improving water efficiency.

  24. JR – But further down in the article there are Nats saying that the crow-eaters ain’t getting a drop of extra water and if they want it they should build a desalination plant at their own cost! to et an extra 100 gigalitres. Xenophon would be nuts to believe anything Malcolm says.

  25. It’s not often that AM makes me laugh, but listening to Brissenden’s spluttering, apologetic interview with Noel Pearson was a hoot. When Pearson suggested that the ABC had progressive, lefty views, I think Brissenden needed a good lie down. All his good work over the last 2 years, and somebody still calls Aunty progressive! What does a guy have to do?

  27. Mark JS Henry

    From the Transparency International website

    http://www.transparency.org/what-is-corruption

    “Corruption is the abuse of entrusted power for private gain. It can be classified as grand, petty and political, depending on the amounts of money lost and the sector where it occurs.”

    Of course given that language is dynamic, you can make up your own definition, as you have done, but it will take a few ??? years yet for federal legislation to catch up with you.

    HOWEVER when corrupt conduct is defined by statute, as it is in the NSW ICAC Act (s7, 8, 9) it can have as wide a meaning as the legislators want it to have. And under the very wide NSW legislation, Brandis would certainly be guilty of corruption if what he is alleged to have done was shown to have been done.

    With Brandis (ironically, since he is the A-G who should be managing these policy matters , he is “protected” by the fact that there is not a Federal equivalent of NSW ICAC.

    In the light of these allegations there is no surprise there. Brandis likes to “free range” uninhibited by petty rules and regulations.

  28. Markjs

    Agree with your observations re Insiders.

    How can we forget JGillard having to face a RC for her time as a young lawyer. Did any charges stem from that? Yet here we have Brandis trying to defraud the Commonwealth of hundreds of millions of dollars. You cant make this shit up

  29. Morrison now offering 15 per cent. What a bag of jelly. If the opposition and lambie et al, hold firm, it will be 10.5 per cent by the end of the day.

  30. PSYCLAW – It is surely corrupt to divert government money to a third party. The money doesn’t have to end up in your own pocket. If Tingle is right, there would be no corruption if, say, a child or wife received a benefit. Pull the other one.

  31. The word ‘corrupt’ is one of the most overused and misused pejorative terms in the language.

    I prefer to see what happened as a conspiracy to defraud the Australian Tax Office and, therefore, the Australian taxpayer.

  32. The private gain for Brandis was that, in exchange for the billion dollars that rightfully belonged to the tax payer, investors and lenders, Colin Barnett would stop attacking the Federal Liberal party in the press, thus increasing Brandis’s chances of being a government minister, instead of losing his seat and/or his party becoming opposition.

  33. I agree re the GG article Anton, the weak point appears to be the water.
    It also says they agree to Leyonhjelm’s condition on reversing the burden of proof.

  34. antonbruckner11 @ #79 Monday, November 28, 2016 at 9:21 am

    Morrison now offering 15 per cent. What a bag of jelly. If the opposition and lambie et al, hold firm, it will be 10.5 per cent by the end of the day.

    Everyone is taking their wins. Morrison and the Government manage to avoid the infamy of being forced to 10.5%, so they can claim they weren’t steamrolled, and all the other players can claim to have pushed the tax rate down from 32% to 15%.

    Labor and the cross-benchers have thus saved 17% and the Government has clawed back 4.5% from being totally crushed.

  35. Lizzie
    Monday, November 28, 2016 at 8:26 am
    The security alterations at The Lodge have created a pretty depressing entrance.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2016/nov/28/christmas-party-politics-mps-attend-malcolm-turnbulls-lodge-soiree-in-pictures?CMP=soc_568

    I’m not sure but I think the party goers are being hustled out through the tradesman’s entrance at the Lodge. There is a better entrance where VIPs (and Malcolm) can drive up to the front door of the Lodge itself but with one Comcar per MP, that would be a difficult way to collect the assorted rabble in the confined space available. So they have probably parked the Comcars in a side street and left the party goers to sort themselves out.

  36. Spot on.
    Paul Karp
    1h1 hour ago
    Paul Karp ‏@Paul_Karp
    Wong says that it’s not just Brandis that has questions on Bell group WA deal, also O’Dwyer and Christian Porter #auspol

  37. ‘How can we forget JGillard having to face a RC for her time as a young lawyer. Did any charges stem from that? Yet here we have Brandis trying to defraud the Commonwealth of hundreds of millions of dollars. You cant make this shit up’

    As has often been observed the Canberra journalists live in a bubble where the endless ‘analysis’ of bills that no one gives a shit about as a ‘win’ for the govt takes the place of real analysis of policy and its consequences.

    Politics as a horse race, but with the LNP running downhill and the ALP running uphill.

  39. Victoria

    With Christian Porter being a former WA treasurer there is a very good chance he is up to his neck in this dodgy deal .

  41. Poroti

    Agreed. Whilst the govt is keen to focus on backpacker tax and ABCC, Labor will wont to hold them to account for the WA scandal. Wonder if JBishop knew about it from the get go?

  43. Good morning all,

    Interesting week !

    Nick X. should tread very lightly re the MDB water allocation. The Nationals will not roll over, too many promises have been made by them and as they are already petrified by One Nation it would not be a good look to farmers in Victoria, NSW and Quennsland where , at the very least, the perception is Barnaby has promised,with his hand on his heart ,they will be able yo keep the extra water.

    Water is gold, perception is reality and we shall see how much control Barnaby has over Turnbull and the government.

    Cheers.

  44. Several people have commented how a number of journalists see themselves as players. The following from the US would sound familiar to them.

    When It Comes to Fake News, the US Government Is the Biggest Culprit

    …………………John Walcott, Washington bureau chief for Knight-Ridder, one of the only news agencies to challenge the government’s rationale for invading Iraq, suggests that the reason for the media’s easy acceptance is that “too many journalists, including some very famous ones, have surrendered their independence in order to become part of the ruling class. Journalism is, as the motto goes, speaking truth to power, not wielding it.”

  45. A quick question if I may to those with legal expertise.

    If a enquiry is held into the actions of Brandis can Justice Gleeson, if called before the enquiry, give evidence as to what conversations were held between himself and Brandis and what directions Brandis gave him or is he bound by some legal constant which would restrict his ability ?

    Cheers.

  47. [Chocolate Cake. That song always shat me ” Tammy Rogers must be ” blah blah.
    No Leonard Cohen]

    We were discussing this as we watched the concert last night. Cohen’s grasp of and use of religious imagery gives him immediate great depth (to the ever shrinking number of people who can access that imagery) and he used it wonderfully and masterfully. In our humble opinions he also used the sexual imagery / sexual nature coming from a much more raw place, although it was highly polished the last couple of decades .
    But crowded house is definitely in the same league. Even ‘Italian plastic’ which I was never a big fan of, resonates as a Paul song (I don’t know if he was suffering from the depression that ultimately killed him when he wrote it but through that lens last night it was magical ‘when you wake up with my I’ll be your glass of water’).

  48. Senator Sue Lines
    3m3 minutes ago
    Senator Sue Lines ‏@linessue
    Things are crook when Sen MacDonald springs to Brandis defence. Let’s see what Brandis has to say at 12 noon @walabor #auspol

  49. Jonathan Green ‏@GreenJ · 2h2 hours ago

    That classic policy conundrum: a healthy major river system that brings life to half the continent or 100 jobs in northern nsw.

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