Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Fairfax-Ipsos poll since the election comes in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll’s and Essential Research’s recent form.

We finally have a new player in the post-election opinion poll game, with Ipsos making its return for the Fairfax papers. It’s come in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll and Essential Research, recording a 51-49 lead, although I don’t know at this stage if that’s previous election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It’s both), since Ipsos provides both. The primary votes retain Ipsos’s pre-election peculiarity in coming in high for the Greens, at 16% compared with 10.2% at the election, and others, at 18% compared with 13%. That only leaves room for 36% for the Coalition and 30% for Labor, compared with 42.0% and 34.7% at the election. We are told that Malcolm Turnbull now has equal approval and disapproval ratings, and that Bill Shorten’s net rating is minus eight, though not the exact numbers (UPDATE: 45% apiece for Turnbull; 37% and 53% for Shorten, which I’d call a net rating of minus sixteen). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-30, which unlike the other measures is better for him than pre-election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Coalition has picked up a point in the Essential Research survey for the second week in a row, so that the pollster concurs with Ipsos in recording a Labor lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (up one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 7% (up one) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Other questions find 79% saying social class exists in Australia, versus 10% who say it doesn’t; 51% rating themselves middle class, 31% working class and 3% upper class; 52% perceiving the Liberal Party as mainly representing an upper class few purport to be a part of, compared with 17% for middle class and 3% for working class; 41% saying Labor mainly represents the working class, versus 16% for the middle class and 7% for the upper class; 31% saying One Nation mainly represented the working class, versus 7% for the middle class and 3% for the upper class; and a general recognition that the Greens didn’t reflect class one way or the other. A question gauging the importance of a range of issue priorities suggests that national security and the budget deficit rate less strongly now than they did in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  6. From last thread, orphaned after William’s jumpcut to here:
    Regarding Crowded House, Neil Finn is one of the most revered composers of popular songs on the planet, as opposed to just Australia and NZ. Two or three good songs? Whoever said that is being a bit churlish. The band sold 10 million albums. Off the top of my head (in no particular order): Something So Strong, Better Be Home Soon, Weather With You, Chocolate Cake, Fall At Your Feet, Sister Madly, Distant Sun….I could go on and on.
    At the first Opera House show they did, pretty much the entire audience sang every word of every song. Very few performers can claim that.

  7. Yay! Got the Ipsos!

    I was hoping for a Labor lead in the normally Coalition-favouring Ipsos, as opposed to a 50-50. And I got it!

    It will be interesting to see how much store the media puts in it when they have basically been going, ‘Meh!’ to the Newspoll and Essential polls. Maybe because this one slightly favours the Coalition more they’ll do a song and dance about it. Along the lines of, ‘Coalition gains ground on Labor’. It has ever been thus, I guess.

  9. As an average over the last term I assess Ipsos’ skew to be very close to zero. But this was mainly because a slight lean to the Coalition was reversed during the campaign.

  10. Sir Pajama Pudding,
    I agree with you about Crowded House. Some people just don’t know how hard it is to be a successful musician and composer. I also rate Neil Finn because his lyrics aren’t trite. They are meaningful and resonate our daily lives in the same way John Lennon and Paul Macartney did.

    To your list of songs you would have to add the ones Neil Finn wrote for Split Enz. Mainly with Tim Finn. Not bad for a couple of brothers from Te Anu in New Zealand!

  11. Kevin Bonham,
    As an average over the last term I assess Ipsos’ skew to be very close to zero. But this was mainly because a slight lean to the Coalition was reversed during the campaign.

    Yes. Funny that. Ipsos was biased towards the Coalition until the election campaign. I think that might have something to do with minds being more focused on voting at that time.

  12. Is it my imagination or do the ALP usually do better over the summer break? My unreliable memory tells me it was always better for Gillard, while Tone would go off knighting princes, and Turnbull had the honeymoon that was due to pop.

  14. I think they have at least ten great songs. There were some deeper cuts I didn’t recognise from the show tonight, but all of them were above average too and were well arranged and performed. That’s a pretty admirable track record for an Australian band. I do think they can stray into easy listening territory sometimes which is why a lot of people dismiss them and why I did for much of my younger life, but I’ve come around. I wonder why they don’t just go on a world tour, you’d think they’d clean up, especially given their popularity in the US. The ABC is supposed to support culture and a rare performance by one of Australias most successful exports, especially a relatively inoffensive adult contemporary one is a pretty obvious choice.

  17. [Is it my imagination or do the ALP usually do better over the summer break? My unreliable memory tells me it was always better for Gillard, while Tone would go off knighting princes, and Turnbull had the honeymoon that was due to pop.]

    I’ve looked at long-term Newspoll data and completely failed to find any evidence of end-of-year polling doing much that is unusual. There is though some pattern of governments getting a small lift in December then crashing in February (I’m only talking about a point or so on average here.)

  19. So the Coalition still has not led in a single poll since the election.

    BRING BACK OUR TONES!!! That will fix the polling right up, 🙂

  23. Ipsos-Fairfax poll – 1st since election
    TPP: ALP 51 L/NP 49
    Primaries: LNP 36, ALP 30, GRN 16, OTH 18

    As Ipsos-Fairfax did before the last election campaign, Greens & minor party vote vs the major parties is a lot higher than other polls. Not really believable in my view.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crashing-to-zero-malcolm-turnbulls-support-evaporates-in-fairfaxipsos-poll-20161127-gsykvw.html
    November 27 2016 – 11:45PM
    Crashing to zero: Malcolm Turnbull’s support evaporates in Fairfax-Ipsos poll
    Mark Kenny

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-these-numbers-reveal-an-underwhelmed-and-disengaged-electorate-20161127-gsykz6.html
    November 27 2016 – 11:45PM
    Fairfax-Ipsos poll: These numbers reveal an underwhelmed and disengaged electorate
    Michael Gordon

  24. Cant take these numbers seriously. Greens at 16? ALP dropping 6 from the election? LOL what? Fairfax should just go with reachtel, IPSOS have some issues.

  27. Adelaide is a city where home gardeners have cut their water usage by 50%,mainly by changing to low-water plants and minimising lawn areas.
    Our fruit growers use drip lines while in other states orchardists spray mdb water high into the air over their trees, or run water down leaky channels. No care, no innovation, no discipline, just greed, selfishness and wilful ignorance. just like barnaby.

  28. So if X does not want to be in hot water with his base, he had better defend the SA water allocation to the last shred of strength in his being.

  34. Good morning.

    The rejection of the mainstream political establishment.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/a-plague-on-both-your-houses-fairfax-ipsos-shows-minor-parties-prospering-20161127-gsynjt.html
    A bold plan to cut taxpayer support for over-funded schools and ramp up support for disadvantaged schools.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/grattan-institute-presents-radical-but-achieveable-plan-to-fix-australias-school-funding-mess-20161127-gsyehz.html
    Gas bills are higher in Canberra than any other Australian jurisdiction covered by the Australian Energy Regulator.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/bill-shock-canberra-gas-prices-the-most-expensive-in-australia-20161123-gswch9.html
    Formerly the Coalition’s greatest asset, Mr Turnbull’s falling personal standing appears to be leading the broader decline
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crashing-to-zero-malcolm-turnbulls-support-evaporates-in-fairfaxipsos-poll-20161127-gsykvw.html
    If nothing else, there is ample time for a recovery. Time yes, but what about nouse?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-star-man-malcolm-turnbull-no-longer-blowing-voters-minds-20161127-gsygw4.html
    What can’t be found in these numbers is evidence to support any view that the electorate has moved sharply to the right.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-these-numbers-reveal-an-underwhelmed-and-disengaged-electorate-20161127-gsykz6.html
    Traditional middle-income male jobs have been lost and are not coming back any time soon.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/this-is-why-middle-class-white-men-are-so-angry-20161125-gsxlit.html
    What matters are the pictures of Pauline in a wetsuit, frolicking on the Great Barrier Reef.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/one-nation-stunts-but-no-solutions-from-hanson-and-roberts-20161127-gsypms.html

  35. “This is far more significant than fruit-fly or water issues,” he says.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/backpacker-tax-blues-theres-going-to-be-fruit-wasting-on-the-trees-20161125-gsxp9k.html
    Every agreed goal should be clear, robust, and regularly measured so that successive governments could be held to account.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-set-to-expand-gender-targets-in-public-service-20161126-gsy4s5.html
    More than 6000 former library books were put on sale to the public at Tuggeranong Library on Saturday as part of the ACT’s first library sale.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-libraries-hold-first-sale-of-former-library-stock-20161126-gsy54j.html
    Once upon a time, Australia was considered a leader on drug harm minimisation; now we’re considered hopeless laggards.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-greens-will-cop-it-for-their-new-drugs-policy-but-theyre-spot-on-20161126-gsy4nk.html
    Health Minister Sussan Ley swiftly rejected the Greens’ calls for change.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/just-say-no-australian-medical-association-rejects-greens-new-drug-legalisation-push-20161127-gsyh5c.html
    QUEENSLAND will reveal some of its best kept secrets in a bid to become Australia’s number one tourism destination again.
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/travel/news/queensland-bids-to-reclaim-title-as-australias-top-travel-destination-after-dreamworld-tragedy/news-story/2fd3cacfbf2a7b0298bd3f5923fb8890
    In the end, it was the government of Harold Holt which finally repealed the marriage bar, 50 years ago last Friday.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-forgotten-milestone-that-shows-how-far-australian-women-have-come-20161125-gsxhhn.html

  36. Four times the department has recommended to successive ministers that he be allowed apply for a protection visa. He remains in detention.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/26/australian-government-concedes-evidence-against-asylum-seeker-was-obtained-by-torture
    Who’s really the boss? Even advice from the public service that implementation of a policy may create problems may be ignored in favour of advice from political staffers that it may be a ‘political winner’.
    http://theaimn.com/rise-political-staffers-people-disappeared-policy-advice/
    Party to refer allegations of sweetheart deal between Brandis and WA government to Senate legal committee on Monday
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/27/greens-to-target-george-brandis-over-misconduct-in-final-sitting-week?CMP=soc_568
    The customer is always right. Wrong.
    http://www.theage.com.au/interactive/2016/not-asking-for-it/index.html

  38. Another proud chapter in Morrison’s time as Minister.

    Delay to treatment of Hamid Kehazaei before he died revealed in leaked files
    Ahead of inquest, documents show how Australian immigration department held up transfer of asylum seeker from Manus Island for treatment

    medical advice from the doctors treating Kehazaei – urging he be moved to a tertiary hospital in Australia – was resisted by department bureaucrats in Canberra, anxious to preserve the policy of keeping asylum seekers detained on the island in Papua New Guinea.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/28/delay-to-treatment-of-hamid-kehazaei-before-he-died-revealed-in-leaked-files

  40. I’m calling bullshit on this poll. Ipsos has consistently understated the Labor PV in relation to the other polls and to suggest that it has fallen to 30% since the election while two other polls are showing it as significantly increased, says it all really.

    It will be interesting to see how William applies it to Bludgertrack.

  42. The GG today has a big write up on the ABCC negotiations, framing it that Xenophon has been caught, the only way to get the water is to vote for the ABCC.
    No ABCC no water.
    I wonder if Turnbull planned it that way?
    Sorry no links, saw the paper copy.

  43. Norway’s biggest pension fund is under pressure to sell its interest in the Spanish company holding the biggest contract to run Australia’s offshore detention centres on Manus Island and Nauru.

    The Australia Institute claims the pension fund’s investment in Ferrovial is at odds with its commitment to high ethical standards and is not widely known in Norway.

    …The campaign is proceeding despite the deal to resettle refugees from the two centres because the Nauru contract runs to October next year and the government plans to keep the centre open for decades.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/norway-pension-fund-told-to-get-out-of-australian-offshore-detention-business-20161127-gsyiwi.html

  44. Sen X was on ABC am…….

    ABC Current Affairs ‏@amworldtodaypm
    After a 4-hour meeting with Michaelia Cash yesterday, @Nick_Xenophon says they are closer to an agreement on the #ABCC #auspol

    1

    1

    ABC Current Affairs retweeted
    Julie Doyle
    42m42 minutes ago
    Julie Doyle ‏@JDoyle73
    coming up soon on AM @amworldtodaypm on @RNBreakfast. Senator @Nick_Xenophon speaks with @m_brisso about ABCC, water and backpacker tax.

  45. Brendan O’Connor
    45m45 minutes ago
    Brendan O’Connor ‏@BOConnorMP
    Media briefings of reshuffle by @TurnbullMalcolm on Friday desperate ploy to stop coalition MPs crossing the floor #auspol #division

  47. Interesting that Massola speculated yesterday that Turnbull is giong to have a reshuffle and the main targets are Skullion, Payne and Georgie Porgie (if I recall). Anyone notice anything interesting about that line-up? They’re all Senators who couldn’t resign and force a by-election. In Malcayman’s govt it’s open season on Senators because he doesn’t need them to stay in power. Better to reward “supporters” in the lower house.

  49. JR – How does that work? Xenophon can take his sweet time agreeing to the ABCC Bill. It’s not going to go away. And if the govt doesn’t give him what he wants on water, he won’t vote for any other legislation. I think the GG is dreaming.

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