Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Fairfax-Ipsos poll since the election comes in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll’s and Essential Research’s recent form.

We finally have a new player in the post-election opinion poll game, with Ipsos making its return for the Fairfax papers. It’s come in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll and Essential Research, recording a 51-49 lead, although I don’t know at this stage if that’s previous election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It’s both), since Ipsos provides both. The primary votes retain Ipsos’s pre-election peculiarity in coming in high for the Greens, at 16% compared with 10.2% at the election, and others, at 18% compared with 13%. That only leaves room for 36% for the Coalition and 30% for Labor, compared with 42.0% and 34.7% at the election. We are told that Malcolm Turnbull now has equal approval and disapproval ratings, and that Bill Shorten’s net rating is minus eight, though not the exact numbers (UPDATE: 45% apiece for Turnbull; 37% and 53% for Shorten, which I’d call a net rating of minus sixteen). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-30, which unlike the other measures is better for him than pre-election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The Coalition has picked up a point in the Essential Research survey for the second week in a row, so that the pollster concurs with Ipsos in recording a Labor lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (up one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 7% (up one) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Other questions find 79% saying social class exists in Australia, versus 10% who say it doesn’t; 51% rating themselves middle class, 31% working class and 3% upper class; 52% perceiving the Liberal Party as mainly representing an upper class few purport to be a part of, compared with 17% for middle class and 3% for working class; 41% saying Labor mainly represents the working class, versus 16% for the middle class and 7% for the upper class; 31% saying One Nation mainly represented the working class, versus 7% for the middle class and 3% for the upper class; and a general recognition that the Greens didn’t reflect class one way or the other. A question gauging the importance of a range of issue priorities suggests that national security and the budget deficit rate less strongly now than they did in August.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,802 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. LHHoA

    A couple of years ago the International airport shops got done over in the UK for charging all out-going passengers the VAT, rather than just the EC travellers. They claimed it was too complicated to manage. The Cash Register system suppliers said ‘not so’.

    Quite some million of pounds had been collected and not paid.

  3. The Sydney Morning Herald
    38 mins ·
    A report on the 2015 state election contains a bombshell recommendation: that NSW voters be forced to produce photo identification before they are able to cast a ballot, writes Sean Nicholls.

    *rolls eyes*

    The touchstone of every modern rightwinger these days is the belief that our elections are rife with voter fraud.

  6. Poroti:

    In newsland as we see every day, the detail doesn’t matter, it’s the broad brush scary headlines. The Greens copped a lot of flack for their illicit drugs policy announcement, which would’ve caused many people to look at them with serious raised eyebrows at that announcement.

    I’m just saying I’m not surprised that they have moved to position themselves as central to the backpacker tax, a mainstream issue.

  7. LOL!

    Barnaby ‏@Barnaby_Joyce
    Credit where credit is due. Thanks to the Greens for doing what Labor should have done. #backpackertax @RichardDiNatale

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 14m14 minutes ago
    Peter van Onselen Retweeted Barnaby Joyce
    Labor played politics sticking to 13% but you’ve spent $100m on a deal with the Greens to get a 15% rate. Higher taxes & higher spending!

  9. Poroti – Many months of “research” in bars along the strip…
    Do they still have “TOT’s”? Darwin is a special place.

  10. Confession

    For one who prides herself on being young I am surprised at that comment.
    Of bloody course all drugs should be decriminalised ie users get no penalty and treatment is medical. was a time when that would be the mainstay of Young Labor Conferences where we would get up and preach this stuff to mild amusement of our “elders.” I am going to cause apoplexy just now, but this is a much more important issue than gay rights or SSM. I am stunned that ANYONE who claims to be left of centre is not fully in favour of decriminalisation of most drugs.

    I DO reserve comment on Ice which seems a far, far worse drug than the rest put together.

  11. ides of march @ #1738 Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 8:40 pm

    P1
    Labor votes down ICAC with the Liberals/Nationals. Thats not in Australia’s interest. Heck Brandis could be already under investigation at this point if it was up and running.

    So, we seem to have established that the Greens are just a political party voting in their own interests, much like the others, with no claim to moral superiority?

  12. CTar1

    What’s with the ‘high rotation’ claims that Bad Vlad is. any minute now, going to invade one or all of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania ? Tail wagging NATO dog ?

  14. Kristina Keneally retweeted
    Natalie Kotsios
    5h5 hours ago
    Natalie Kotsios ‏@NatalieKotsios
    Greens deal actually sees Govt lose $160m from budget – $60m from super changes, plus spending extra $100m on Landcare #backpackertax

  17. Simon Katich
    OMG !!! I forgot about TOTs !!! When I was there it was. From this ABC news report it was still going in 2014.

    You can find my name on a board at the Wisdom Bar on Mitchell St. Attaining ‘wisdom’ involved the imbibing of 100 beers from around the world. Not on one night I may add 🙂
    They had an amazing selection of beers, spirits and liqueurs.

    TOT 2014
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDG8SpcVSyw

  18. ”There’s a commitment that I want to give you … There will not be deals done with independents and minor parties under any political movement that I lead,” Abbott said from the Opposition party room at Parliament House in 2013. Obviously doesnt apply to Turncoat.

  19. DTT:

    For one who prides herself on being young I am surprised at that comment.

    Why? I’m not commenting on the Greens policy but on the way it was handled by the media. The Greens stuffed up plain and simple.

    As for your snide comment about my age, if you continue to be insulting or derogatory I won’t engage.

  20. Poroti

    The whole thing is very complicated. Probably only Poland should have been given a real comfort statement. The other border old USSR countries just a bit of we’ll help if we can.

    Not that that’s more than the NATO arrangement requires. If I recall it says ‘give assistance’. Knitting socks is probably compliant. ANZUS no different.

    There was an agreement between the US and the Russians that they would ‘decommission’ lots of missiles.

    As soon as this was agreed the US announced that some bits of their RR ‘Star Wars’ efforts had given them the ability to knock down many Missiles types.

    The Russian response was simply to say we’ll keep lots then and we’ll fire very many if it gets down to it.

  24. “It’s not often that the Liberal Party and the Greens agree, in fact 94 per cent of the time we vote against the Coalition (that’s compared to the almost 40 per cent of the time the Labor Party agrees with them!)” . From the Greens website.

  25. Well, I’ve just met our new neighbour as he was watering his garden.

    What a connected bloke! On first-name terms with The Bad and The Beautiful. Pals with those about as high as you can go before you (literally) hit the heavens.

  26. So I wonder what the GG and other on the right will say tomorrow.
    Yesterday was the neutered ABCC bill, today was the backpacker tax with a bonus $100m for landcare, and a deal with the hated greens.
    The ABCC must have hurt, IR more than anything else, even 18c is their ‘thing’.
    The IPA must be feeling the same way.

  29. Ha ha ha on that ick photo of Christensen in yesterday’s SMH:

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP Nov 30
    The pitch: “You’re the whip in the House, the shoot will really show your authority.” Of course it will…

    😆

  31. John R:

    The Murdoch papers are just happy enough to report anything as a win for Turnbull that I don’t think they are giving much thought to what might have been. Outside of the Bolts, Devines and Piers that is I’d imagine.

  39. Had a nice chat with Ross Garnaut today. He is pure class.

    Was it a chat in a fan boi distanced audience way or were you in the inner realm and seriously got to ‘chat’. If the latter do you have contact details for him?

  40. Jaeger

    A big ‘get stuffed, Clive’ from presumably CITEC.

    I wonder how the remains of Harland and Wolff and the rest of Belfast feel about the idea.

  42. Adrian
    Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 7:38 pm
    Any reports on the 7.30 interview with Shorten would be appreciated.

    Just watched it on iView. Sales treated Shorten the same way she did Turnbull last night. Even apologised for interrupting. This is the first time I felt she has been consistent with them both.

    One funny bit was when she listed all the petty crap that has been the focus recently and asked wtte “is this what Australians want of parliament”? Perhaps the dixer was a XMas gift, I’m not sure if she realised how much the question implied Shorten was leading the country.

  43. Was it a chat in a fan boi distanced audience way or were you in the inner realm and seriously got to ‘chat’. If the latter do you have contact details for him?

    A bit of both actually.

    It appears that there is an consilience of ideas for reform of energy network regulation emerging, from disparate and often conflicting parts of the industry. The Finkel Review is a huge opportunity for renewables and distributed storage to get the institutional recognition it deserves.

    South and South East Asia are the key battle grounds for anthropogenic climate change action, as this is where most of the world new coal-fired stationary energy generation is being commissioned. The horrible irony of Bangladeshi plans for a new CF plant being scuppered by the risk of rising sea levels was noted, while Thailand is building lignite-powered plant in Laos.

    And he’s not so hard to reach if you know a few other people 🙂

  44. The Titanic replica construction mentioned in the Independent story must be a different one to that which Clive may or may not be having built. It is being built as a tourist attraction in Sichuan province in SW China and a long way from the sea. It certainly won’t be going near any icebergs or anywhere near salt water (unless the promoters make their own icebergs for that simulated “sinking experience”).

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2016-12/01/content_27533552.htm

  47. Not sure if this one fits best under weird or stupidity.

    Eight years for ‘would-be gangster’ who posed in shotgun selfie, then shot mate

    High on ice, short on sleep and dressed only in his underwear, Albert Rapovski was snapping selfies with some friends and a sawn-off shotgun in a down-at-heel Melbourne motel room.

    Minutes after they posed for this picture, one of those friends, Mahamd Hassan, was dead, shot in the face by Rapovski, a victim of his “extremely stupid behaviour”.

    “Guns, drugs and stupidity do not mix, never have, never will,” Supreme Court Justice Michael Croucher said on Thursday, before sentencing Rapovski to eight years’ jail.

    Rapovski, 20, was drug-affected when he and his friends posed with the gun as if they were “would-be gangsters” in photos at the Parkside Inn Motel in Kingsbury in Melbourne’s north east on March 5, the judge said.
    —
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/eight-years-for-wouldbe-gangster-who-posed-in-shotgun-selfie-then-shot-mate-20161201-gt1nnd.html

    Maybe he should have had an Adler and wiped out a few more of his idiot mates.

  48. It appears that there is an consilience of ideas for reform of energy network regulation emerging, from disparate and often conflicting parts of the industry.

    My experience is that the more ‘radical’ ideas will come from those areas facing greater risk from the effects of AGW.

    More locally, apparently a groundwater aquifer has been discovered here which is now excitably being reported in terms of being the relief to our water supply crises, taking the pressure off the fact that this region has been experiencing a 4 decades plus drying climate, and the impacts that has on our water supply.

  49. More on Shorten interview.

    He made the point that the deal with the Greens means we have a higher headline tax rate (which may put off back-packers), and a worse result for the budget bottom line at the same time. Sales did try to suggest fighting over 13% or 15% was a bit petty, but she wasn’t dogged about it. Or perhaps Shorten’s comeback that the government just paid more taxpayer money to avoid doing a deal with the ALP was too hard to counter?

    Shorten said that Turnbull can’t lead while he’s looking over his shoulder and he doubted he would be facing Turnbull at the next election.

    He managed to outline the ALP priorities without interruption, and said the L-NP don’t have an agenda beyond tax cuts for millionaires.

    It was all fairly calm and non-combative.

  50. My experience is that the more ‘radical’ ideas will come from those areas facing greater risk from the effects of AGW.

    Maybe in places where somewhat democratic and representative institutions dominate, but that’s not Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand Laos or Cambodia.

    IMHO, one of the best things we could do to mitigate carbon emissions and global warming is to begin exporting uranium to India, with the proviso that they build sufficient interconnections with Bangladesh to support their energy needs.

    This could be coupled with a uranium processing plant in SA, itself powered by a concentrated solar thermal plant. CST would also provide spinning capacity to SA and all the system support that that entails, while giving AGL some competition.

    More broadly, we could really do with some strategic industry policy, like the above. We could be a renewable energy super-power if we want to.

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