We finally have a new player in the post-election opinion poll game, with Ipsos making its return for the Fairfax papers. It’s come in slightly lower for Labor than Newspoll and Essential Research, recording a 51-49 lead, although I don’t know at this stage if that’s previous election or respondent-allocated preferences (UPDATE: It’s both), since Ipsos provides both. The primary votes retain Ipsos’s pre-election peculiarity in coming in high for the Greens, at 16% compared with 10.2% at the election, and others, at 18% compared with 13%. That only leaves room for 36% for the Coalition and 30% for Labor, compared with 42.0% and 34.7% at the election. We are told that Malcolm Turnbull now has equal approval and disapproval ratings, and that Bill Shorten’s net rating is minus eight, though not the exact numbers (UPDATE: 45% apiece for Turnbull; 37% and 53% for Shorten, which I’d call a net rating of minus sixteen). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-30, which unlike the other measures is better for him than pre-election. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The Coalition has picked up a point in the Essential Research survey for the second week in a row, so that the pollster concurs with Ipsos in recording a Labor lead of 51-49. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (up one), Labor 36% (down one), Greens 9% (down one), One Nation 7% (up one) and Nick Xenophon Team 3% (steady). Other questions find 79% saying social class exists in Australia, versus 10% who say it doesn’t; 51% rating themselves middle class, 31% working class and 3% upper class; 52% perceiving the Liberal Party as mainly representing an upper class few purport to be a part of, compared with 17% for middle class and 3% for working class; 41% saying Labor mainly represents the working class, versus 16% for the middle class and 7% for the upper class; 31% saying One Nation mainly represented the working class, versus 7% for the middle class and 3% for the upper class; and a general recognition that the Greens didn’t reflect class one way or the other. A question gauging the importance of a range of issue priorities suggests that national security and the budget deficit rate less strongly now than they did in August.
Di Natale has forgotten Harradine’s first law of spending extraction, which is that spending extraction deals must be locked in through the forward estimates and tied to something much larger (usually the budget) else they mysteriously fail to materialise.
Or perhaps he does not (land)care?
Even Uhlmann is beating up Malcolm.
I reckon that, next time, Jacqui Lambi will be quicker off the mark to stop being double-crossed by the Greens (who effectively used her as leverage to get their own deal). That’s the unprincipled thing about this.
I sense that the next time the Greens want Jacqui Lambi’s help it may not be forthecoming.
All together now……………… “I know just how she feels”
Thanx Puffy 🙂
During the late morning the ABC had a guy on about picking Mango’s.
During the interview he said picking them goes on for about 8 months of the year (i.e. not very seasonal) and lack of pickers had cost him about 30% of his income.
When asked about the number he said around a million dollars.
The ABC reporter commiserated with him on the loss and asked him if he could go on.
So another example of unsustainable farming.
I didn’t feel the need to bleed for the farmer.
Di Natale is such a wannabe.
CTar1
It is sustainable if the farmer can get the workers. It is the same for any business. Perhaps pickers should be paid more.
LL@6.35 pm
As it turns out, I was polled by ReachTel on this one. Labor still needs a tough 10 seats to get into government and the Mount Lawley electorate is one which must come into contention. That Morley has been in Liberal hands for so long is a mystery but says a lot about the poor performance of Labor at the last election. This latter seat should never have been in Liberal hands but there you are. From just a brief listen to talk-back radio, the part sale of Western Power has not exactly go people cheering in the streets for the LNP. Which ever way you look at it, the current LNP government is very tired, lacks any kind of leadership outside Barnett, and, in the normal course of events, should be put out to pasture.
Any reports on the 7.30 interview with Shorten would be appreciated.
Ptmd
Yep. And if that makes the Mango’s too expensive then it’s basically not a going enterprise.
LL @ 6.35pm re: Reachtel poll
I realise “The West” has just about completed its transformation into a News tabloid, but articles such as that still give me the sh**s!
Why do they write Labor needs 8 seats to “snatch” power, as though such a result would be in some way illegitimate? Why not write that they need 8 seats to “win government”? (That’s rhetorical, of course!)
ides of march @ #1689 Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 6:35 pm
So they vote with Labor except when it counts?
One thing good for the Government in the last few days is that their incompetence has taken some of the heat off Brandis.
I notice Labor haven’t completely forgotten him with Wong speculating, “It’s probably his last sitting day, so he’s probably feeling a little sensitive.” and another Labor member , Murray Watt, giving a valedictory speech on Brandis’s behalf.
Well you can knock me down with a feather! An intelligent, respectful interview between Leigh and Shorten on ABC 7:30 We actually learned that Bill has plans for next year about substantive things
Hey people
What the hell are you lot on about. Shorten was playing a blinder, stirring up the LNP with the backpacker tax – he succeeded. But hey – the tax is GOOD policy. Any person who takes an Australian job whether a jolly Irish singer or a handsome German is still taking jobs from Aussies. They accept the exploitative conditions because it is a holiday.
There is a serious revenue shortfall – sure it should come from the rich FIRST but extracting a bit from backpackers is a good idea too. Fantastic that Shorten made Mal and Scotty look stupid, but hey there is NOT a principle involved here.
15% tax plus landcare is a good deal for everyone. Di Natali has broken the deadlock. Sure it maybe slightly damages Labor and Lambie but trivial in the scheme of things. Made Hinch look an idiot and dealt the Greens back into the senate mix.
BDTT
ackpackers don’t take the money home, they spend it, often in local businesses. The Feds just ripped small business.
Puff
So do the aussie kids – spend the money here. Talk about a bloody beat up. Of course backpackers should pay tax. – We sure would if we went to Germany.
Daretotread
Here’s the thing. The growers are uncompetitive without being able to offer exploitative wages and conditions. Conditions people on a travelling holiday or on visas from the Pacific are prepared to endure for short periods. They will not be able to offer conditions that would see locals in large numbers rush to fill vacancies .
If you want to protect an uncompetitive sector then making it less attractive to those willing to be somewhat exploited is not the way to go.
P1
They vote with Labor. Except lately when they appear to be voting when its in their interest/meets their goals or policy. I can just as easily say Labor voted with the LNP when I dont think they should have.
Poroti
Yep.
DTT
if Aussie kids are so keen to pick fruit, how come the fruit is not being picked now with backpayers staying away?
And where did the proposal that young people on benefits could earn five thousand a year, or similar, picking fruit without cutting their centrelink payments? That was one idea I did like.
Did the Greens negotiate that into the deal?
4 weeks in Spain this year, spent ten’s of thousands off Euros with 21% VAT. Claiming it back is possible but was so hard we didn’t bother + by all accounts they never send it through.
Backpackers pay GST here, is there a way for them to claim that back?
CTar1
Amazing how the business peasants who profess to being believers in the wisdom of “the market” , supply and demand and all that, become infidels when it comes to the price of labour.
dtt
‘There is a serious revenue shortfall…’
Which the tax, as negotiated, does nothing to solve.
MikeH
re claiming back GST
Not that I have heard of, but maybe there is.
Mike
The UK’s VAT was, and I think still is, reclaimable at the airport on the way out.
No one bothers because what you actually want to do is head home.
Whether the backpacker tax rate is 15% or 13% is the smallest of small-bore issues. It reflects poorly on the ALP that they hyperventilate on small stuff instead of taking a stand on big ethical questions like the value of not torturing people with detention, or the value of the federal government delivering full employment. It amuses me that when the Greens stand up for ethical treatment of asylum-seekers the shriek from Labor and its timid supporters is that the Greens aren’t willing enough to do deals; when the Greens do a deal on something relatively minor, like whether the backpacker tax is 13% or 15%, or whether the threshold at which company director details are published is a $150 million company value or a $100 million company value, the ALP shrieks that the Greens are TOO willing to do deals. The ALP pretends the small stuff is worth dying in a ditch over; when it’s a major issue they are weaker than water.
The Greens in a nutshell. they have aided and abetted the worst govt ever
Rowan @FightingTories
Pension cuts, Debt ceiling and the list goes on. The party they did a deal with over Malaysian solution But scream #bringthemhere #Greens https://twitter.com/PaulBongiorno/status/804182499328868352 …
Zoomster
Exactly. We have the most incompetent govt, who the Greens are happy to support along the way
Poroti
So we pump X amounts of dollars (and water) into Mango’s to get them up, then exploit tourists to pick them, pay the transport costs and flog the in a fruit market.
JFC
CTar1
Yeah, we claimed some in 2013 leaving the UK but I don’t think they credited us back. Only bothered because we bought a lot of gear, teenage daughters x3 let loose in Carnaby Street! so OH wanted to give it a go.
Agree with just wanting to get home.
Nicholas should start his own political party and go out and canvass for votes.
Other than that, just pissing in the wind.
In Australia way back when if you were an overseas tourist there was a way to claim back the sales tax if you showed you were taking the item out of the country.
ides of march @ #1720 Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 8:13 pm
So the Greens vote in their own interests, and not in the interests of Australians?
Mike
Just the bit about getting some decent vegies and a bit of meat you don’t have to cook for hours is a big incentive.
-Most countries offer a VAT/GST refund when you leave the country, (Australia included) but it is normally only on purchases over a certain amount in a single transaction and the type of goods may be specified.
The Duty-Free shops in the cities market towards this but it works for transactions in any store.
I’ve taken advantage of it a couple of times.
P1
Labor votes down ICAC with the Liberals/Nationals. Thats not in Australia’s interest. Heck Brandis could be already under investigation at this point if it was up and running.
Poroti
Being an NZ’er back then you’d be suspected of having something illicit. 😀
Nicholas is of course absolutely right. this tax is a trivial issue and to make a big deal of it makes the ALP and supporters look small. Sure it was great strategy to stir Mal the muddler up, but at the end of the day that is all.
There are BIG issues, like draconian terrorism laws and anti civil liberties stuff – these matter. A couple of extra dollars from German backpackers is total trivia.
CTar1
Pretty much the preferred economic set up of the Nationals.
One place the backpacker tax jiggery pokery could have devastating effects is along Darwin’s entertainment strip, Mitchell St. Many months of “research” in bars along the strip showed that there must be some law mandating mandating backpackers be hired as bar staff 🙂
Not just in Darwin. Talking to the, largely from EU, bar staff it seems there is a backpacker equivalent of the Gray Nomad’s circumnavigation of Australia amongst those working in the pubs and clubs,
Lats words on the backpackers and this comes from talking to a few as the kids are around that age.
Australia is expensive, you need a car to get anywhere and the laid back image fostered back in the 70/80’s that brought so many here (their parents) has by in large gone. Australia, in particular under this government is a nastier & more bigoted, racist place than it was.
puff, the magic dragon. @ #1726 Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 8:21 pm
Yes, there is.
As you go through customs there’s an area that deals with it.
You just present your receipts and the actual item(s) purchased and they credit your bank account on the spot.
As I said above, I’ve taken advantage of it in Australia and other countries.
Victoria:
Totally agree. Whatever happened to the Greens illicit drugs policy of making drugs legal from the weekend? That seems to have sunk without a trace.
Methinks they just needed something to make them look mainstream after that particular brain fart and that’s the only reason they’ve done a deal with the govt on the backpacker tax.
Poroti
The ‘bar staff’ thing doesn’t only happen in Darwin.
I knew a girl well enough from the ‘Duke of Cornwallis’ in London (her “working name ‘Paris’ and she was from Perth) that she could visit and just have a long hot shower and the available ‘food’ could be approved of or called crap.
You can only claim the GST on goods to take out of the country valued at $300 or more on one receipt. You must have the goods to show on departure from Australia.
You can claim in the EU also but get very little back as it’s all brokered through private companies who take a huge chunk.
You cannot claim for services.
If the Backpacker tax is so trivial, how come Di Natale is jumping up and down like he found Lasseter’s Reef?
jenauthor @ #1715 Thursday, December 1, 2016 at 7:52 pm
Yes. Only one but, but, but…. that I could count.
Non Sequitur cartoon today – was in the Age, but this is the Stateside link that I found. How Trump voters might feel.
http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/2016/12/01
Confessions
I saw the headlines but I am 99.999999% sure those headlines were bullshit. Di Natale went to Portugal last year (or the year before ?) with his family. At his own expense I may add. He went to look at the effects of their ‘decriminalisation” of drug use. It is “decriminalisation’ NOT legalisation. The treating of drug use as a medical rather than a criminal matter.
So when it comes to the Greens this is what they will be pushing. What Di Natale went to see for himself.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/portugal-decriminalised-drugs-14-years-ago-and-now-hardly-anyone-dies-from-overdosing-10301780.html