Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings bounce back from recent lows, amid an otherwise stable set of readings from Newspoll.

Via James J, tomorrow’s Australian brings us another result showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady) and Greens 10% (steady). For some reason, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have recorded an uptick, with approval up four to 34% and disapproval down four to 54%, but lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 42-32 to 43-33. Bill Shorten’s ratings are unchanged at 36% approval and 51% disapproval. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Morning all.

    Victoria, re the weather and media reports I share your frustration. Emergency services here are bracing for what is being tipped as our worst fire season in years. We hear similar reports each summer, but nobody makes the link to climate change. It’s going to get worse, not better.

  2. Victoria

    I assume someone is chronicling all these “little effects” of AGW.
    I am beginning to feel sad for all the people who were born too late to experience the world before AGW.

  4. Slate.comLike Page
    20 hrs ·
    According to the latest counts, Clinton received 63,541,056 votes compared to Trump’s 61,864,015.

  5. Guytaur,
    Its already surfacing and it will be a free for all when the LNP are the opposition.
    I suspect we will see long years in the wilderness for them as they try and find relevance in the post neo liberal world

    Yet if you asked them they would be confidently predicting long years in government surfing the Trump wave.

  8. Guytaur,
    Another major earthquake in Fukashima area. 10 metre tsunami predicted.

    Not to be too flippant but could that be the Trump Wave hitting Japan after the Trumpquake?

  9. Victoria,
    These days I just feel disheartened

    Long ago I gave up feeling that way because that’s what THEY want you to do. Give up fighting THEM. Nope, nope, nope, I’m going to fight them to make a better world until my dying breath!

  10. Cat

    Yes they have confidence in their propaganda. They think the present good news from the Obama era translates to covering their bad news in Australia.

    Chalk and cheese but nothing like a bit of delusion to think they can translate on bad economic times. In Australia the record is clear of who is the bad economic managers and which major party is against banks against the elite etc.

    Thats good news for Labor and bad news for the right 👿

  14. Confessions

    Not in Australia. Look at the Newspoll. Look at last Federal election results. Labor is riding populism wave because its policies address the left out and are different from internationally.

    The elites in fact attacked Labor for handing out cheques so people would not be left out. We have had 25 years of uninterrupted economic growth thanks to Labor and voters are stating to wake up.

  15. Guytaur

    Not as sorry as NASA was when they got miles and kilometres mixed up on a Mars lander in the early noughties. A couple of hundred million $ went SPLAT 🙂

  19. I think it’s almost natural to feel a degree of depression these days, particularly with the combination of Trump, global warming, and a worse than useless media. Not to mention our less than stellar government over here.

    Doesn’t mean you don’t keep fighting any way that you can.

  20. I think it’s almost natural to feel a degree of depression these days, particularly with the combination of Trump, global warming, and a worse than useless media. Not to mention our less than stellar government over here.

    Plus the return and continued rise of Hanson, the reports of Sarkozy come back. Seriously.

  25. If the UK and US had Australia’s voting system no Brexit and not President Trump.

    That is a reality to bear in mind when you see talk of the rise of the right. Yes in power terms of votes. With UK though not a done deal like US election results. Court ruled parliament has to debate and work out how and if Brexit actually happens. A week is a long time in politics.

  26. Good to see Daniel Andrews continuing his run as ’employee of the month’ from our heads of govt.

    re: the registered organisations, probably wise of Turnbull to go for an easy single, although considering his current run rate, he’s going to need some boundaries to get back on track. In terms of the discussion people had yesterday (will it effect polling). No-one knew of the existence of the bill when it was a DD trigger, nor during the election, nor did they know about it yesterday. It might give him a day or two without the media talking about how little Turnbull has achieved, which has to either delay, or slow the slide.

    Also, very interesting to see the net sats for Turnbull from Newspoll. I’m very suspicious of it though. 6 Newspolls in a row with dropping netsat, Liberal 1st pref vote dropped, no change on PPM, no change on Shorten’s net sats. And yet a massive spike in Turnbull’s netsat? It just looks out of place. The only thing I can possibly think to explain it is that in that two weeks, the standard required to lead a country dropped considerably thanks to Trump?

  29. I have never quite agreed that Tony Smith is the fair unbiased model he is made out to be.
    Bongiorno:

    “I’m not going to be misrepresented by this great fraud of Australian politics. I can assure you of that,” he thundered. Mr Shorten was a serial double-crosser and a union bully, Mr Dutton added.

    Interestingly, Speaker Tony Smith, who has been exemplary, allowed the attack, though it flagrantly breached standing orders. Perhaps independence as an umpire can only go so far when your team is in trouble.

  31. Bruce Haigh ‏@bruce_haigh · 22m22 minutes ago

    #auspol Nats cross the floor on a matter of principal – NO – they cross the floor to vote for automatic shot guns, god help us and them

  33. lizzie

    Smith is no Peter Slipper. Canberra Press Gallery keeps ignoring actual work in the role.

    Anything to have people forget what a real unbiased independent Speaker looks like.

  34. No words…

    Joon Lee ‏@iamjoonlee · 20m20 minutes ago

    CNN is ACTUALLY DEBATING the merits of whether or not Donald Trump should denounce whether “In fact, Jews are human beings.”

  36. A survey of 1846 is a very large (expensive) sample to be taking at a fairly irrelevant point in the election cycle. Aren’t their samples usually in the 1100-1200 range? Are they trying to attach more significance to the result for some reason?

  38. That Richard Spencer character is a dangerous man, even if he thinks Donald Trump is the second coming of the prophet.

    He is intelligent, articulate and committed to his cause. He’s also physically attractive and a hell of a lot younger than Donald Trump and all his Conservative Warriors. The term ‘Christian Soldier’ springs to mind. With the military emphasis highlighted. God only knows why these social control freaks are foist upon us. ; )

  39. “That makes the government reliant on an unpersuaded crossbench, and it is understood to have secured only five of the eight votes needed to reach 38: the four One Nation senators and Tasmania’s Jacqui Lambie.”

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-governments-lifetime-ban-on-refugee-visas-likely-to-be-killed-off-by-senate-20161121-gstycz.html

    I thought Culleton agreed it would be a indecent for him to vote while the Court decides that he is inelligible?

  41. Antonbruckner11

    LIZZIE – I think that, in Colonial Times, “Minister for Lands” was another word for “Crook”

    It seems so, from earlier link

    And from when the same newspaper in 1884 described Charles Boydell Dutton as a “squatter of the squatters” and “an out and out Tory in the guise of a Liberal — a wolf in the guise of a lamb…”

    One of the newspaper clippings
    ?no-auto

  42. Trump has made the first ‘grave’ mistake of his presidency. By dragging the media heads in and dressing them down, he’s poked at a nest of rattlesnakes who don’t take to kindly to his being bullied.

    While they made a mistake themselves in not taking the possibility of a Trump presidency seriously, they will use every weapon at their disposal to expose Trump for who he really is now. The investigations/exposes will come thick and fast. He won’t make it past the mid-terms.

    And like here with Turnbull, the people will be so relieved they’ll let another disaster, Pence, have a honeymoon (albeit a short one).

  43. Chris Bowen says a Labor government would require the Productivity Commission to produce five-yearly reports measuring equality of opportunity and social mobility, as part of a multi-pronged policy effort to ensure Australia can maintain a genuinely egalitarian tradition.

    That work would be sequenced with the existing intergenerational reports produced by the Treasury, the shadow treasurer will say in a speech he is due to give to the Chifley Research Centre on Tuesday.

    Bowen will argue that Australia regularly professes to be the land of the fair go but governments need to ensure the egalitarian “dream” has substance behind it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/22/labor-says-it-would-use-productivity-commission-to-enshrine-equality-of-opportunity

  44. Pence was on Fox saying that he thought the criticism from the cast of ‘Hamilton’ was OK by him.

    Unlike Trump, who set off one of his Twitter Vesuvius-like eruptions because of it.

  45. LIZZIE – In Cyril Pearl’s Wild Men of Sydney, he says that, at the end of the nineteenth century, three successive Ministers for Lands fled the colony with a bag of loot. It was the job to have if you were light-fingered.

  46. The problem is that the bar for political discourse keeps lowering. It’ll hit the floor soon.

    Fools like Dutton are ennobled by Trump, and the political class don’t give a stuff as long as there’s a chance that they get a short term advantage from it.

    Meanwhile the planet cooks, and the media collectively look the other way.
    In many ways we have gone backwards in the last thirty years.

  47. Grandather Trump:

    Trump was born in Kallstadt, now in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, in 1869. He emigrated to the US aged 16 initially to escape poverty, attracted by the gold rush.

    He quickly turned his attention to catering for the masses of other gold hunters in Alaska, later allegedly running a brothel for them, and there made his fortune. He habitually sent the gold nuggets with which his customers regularly paid for their food to his sisters who had already emigrated to New York and had started trading in property.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

  48. Trump is obviously not making the transition from dictatorial property magnate to elected politician. While the former can shout at any time “you’re fired”, the latter needs to remember that others can say to him “you’re fired”.

  49. c@tmomma @ #269 Tuesday, November 22, 2016 at 10:09 am

    Pence was on Fox saying that he thought the criticism from the cast of ‘Hamilton’ was OK by him.
    Unlike Trump, who set off one of his Twitter Vesuvius-like eruptions because of it.

    If he already had the nuclear codes, a mushroom cloud would probably be hanging over the theatre right now.

  50. Quality of government is a major concern of Australians. Each year the Scanlon survey asks people to name the single most important problem they feel we are facing as a nation. The economy is always the top score. But in five of the last six years, worries about government have beaten even fears over terrorism into second place on this test.

    Markus has been charting this collapse for years. He sheets it home to Australia’s disappointment with Kevin Rudd when he abandoned his great plans in 2010 to deal with global warming. From that year to the next, support for government in this country fell from 48% to 31%.

    It has never recovered.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/22/hostility-towards-immigrants-on-rise-as-australians-despair-over-government

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