Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings bounce back from recent lows, amid an otherwise stable set of readings from Newspoll.

Via James J, tomorrow’s Australian brings us another result showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady) and Greens 10% (steady). For some reason, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have recorded an uptick, with approval up four to 34% and disapproval down four to 54%, but lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 42-32 to 43-33. Bill Shorten’s ratings are unchanged at 36% approval and 51% disapproval. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,599 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  6. Now that the polling trend is well established, there doesn’t seem much incentive for Fairfax to spend their shrinking resources on an Ipsos poll. Neither does it seem likely that anyone needs to commission a Reachtel poll.

    On the other hand, Murdoch has some incentive to keep going with Newspoll. He dislikes Turnbull and must be getting some satisfaction from seeing him do so poorly. Perhaps Abbott’s mate Sheridan is telling him “not too long now…”

  7. From a book published in 1998:

    Members of labor unions, and unorganized unskilled workers, will sooner or later realize that their government is not even trying to prevent wages from sinking or to prevent jobs from being exported. Around the same time, they will realize that suburban white-collar workers — themselves desperately afraid of being downsized — are not going to let themselves be taxed to provide social benefits for anyone else.

    At that point, something will crack. The nonsuburban electorate will decide that the system has failed and start looking around for a strongman to vote for — someone willing to assure them that, once he is elected, the smug bureaucrats, tricky lawyers, overpaid bond salesmen, and postmodernist professors will no longer be calling the shots. …

    One thing that is very likely to happen is that the gains made in the past 40 years by black and brown Americans, and by homosexuals, will be wiped out. Jocular contempt for women will come back into fashion. … All the resentment which badly educated Americans feel about having their manners dictated to them by college graduates will find an outlet.

  9. Evening all. Nice poll. Maybe it explains this appalling Trumpian statement by our immigration minister Donald, err, Peter Dutton.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-21/peter-dutton-fraser-made-mistake-resettling-lebanese-refugees/8043624

    Blaming Fraser for the behaviour of third generation children of immigrants? What a cowardly racist slur, made under privelege. Shame, Peter Dutton, shame

    There are problems with some (few) elements of the Lebanese sunni muslim community in Sydney. But the causes can be summed up in two words – poverty and crime. Many of the Australian ISIL fighters were involved in drug crime first. There is a crime problem in Sydney Lebanese muslims, but it is a social problem, not a religious one, and with a very small group. Shall we deport a community of 100,000 for the actions of a few dozen??

    Overall, the rate of imprisonment of immigrant groups is lower than for Australian born citizens. And what immigrant group has the highest imprisonment rate? Christian ones, from Nigeria. See
    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/products/3e793e6707402ccaca257b3c000dc8f8?opendocument

  10. I dont know why these plonkers in the MSM keep writing their opinion pieces that back Turnbull.No one is taking a blind bit of notice about what they think or write nowadays.

  13. Just saw an ad on free to air tv in Perth from a mob called CME. Must be some mining industry front.
    Anyway, it bags the WA National Party (without naming them) and claims that the miners already pay $19 a tonne royalty, not 25 cents, as the Nationals have allegedly argued.
    I don’t recall Grylls or any other WA Nat arguing that, and I think they are deliberately conflating what they pay the Federal Government with what they pay the state, and dishonestly misrepresenting the nature of the payment they pay WA.
    Not a subject I know much about. Anyone here who can sort the wheat from the chaff?

  14. The sad arse Libs will have nothing to go to the next election with.Jobson Groethe will just be laughed at even more next time round.Apart from rhetoric what will they have as public policy?

  16. It doesn’t appear that Sen X has yet voted for the ABCC bill (which isn’t up yet). This appears to be for the Registered Organisation bill (which is a more subtle piece of anti-union legislation which is theoretically redeemable).

  17. A sucker is born every day.

    Although the amendments to the bill only apply to unions and employer associations, Xenophon revealed the government had agreed to an inquiry and the objective of implementing “the substance and detail” of the whistleblower protections in the corporate and public sectors in legislation by June 2018.

  18. Yeah, the month after that the Government can actually call an election, so it’s a terrible time frame to set. You’d want to see progress by June 2017 if you were serious, since it would give you a year to inflict some payback if necessary.

  19. Morning all. Like Frednk I think that Xenephon is indeed a sucker if he has agreed to support the government in return for an inquiry and whistleblower legislation in 2018. Some excuse will be found for the latter to never happen.

    It will be just like Meg Lees and the democrats supporting Howard on the GST in return for later reforms of business taxation (never happened) or Andrew Wilkie supporting Gillard in return for anti-gambling reforms (never happened). Future promises from either major party are worth less than a shift in next month’s opinion polls.

  23. Good Morning

    The government has outsmarted itself on the industrial relations legislation. Already Xenophon is being labelled sucker for reasons outlined above. So Xenophon just looks ineffective and he is politician enough to know he has been suckered when it is pointed out to him.

    ABC local radio news has been playing Senator Doug Cameron pointing it out.

    The job for the ABCC legislation just got a little harder for the government with egg on the NXT party faces.

  25. Hospitals across Victoria have been left reeling after an unprecedented number of people suddenly fell acutely sick on Monday evening, in what is believed to be a mass incident of “thunderstorm asthma”.

    Ambulance Victoria was flooded with calls after a storm hit Melbourne shortly before 6pm, prompting a “major disaster response” from emergency services.

    The demand was so great that Ambulance Victoria ran out of ambulances and had to call in police officers, non-emergency patient vehicles and field doctors trained for disasters to help with transporting acute patients to hospital.

    State health commander Paul Holman said in his 40 years as a paramedic he had never seen an event like it.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/emergency-services-declare-major-disaster-after-mass-thunderstorm-asthma-event-20161121-gsuezc.html

  26. rickygervais: Where did this “roll over & take it up the arse culture” of “don’t criticise a democratically elected politician, just accept it” come from?

  28. As Jacquie Lambie perceptively pointed out last night: Why did the government have to go to a DD to get this legislation through!?! They could have just come and talked to the Senate about Amendments!

    Of course we know why. The hapless Turnbull government thought they would be smarty pants and change the Senate voting rules with The Greens help and eliminate pesky Cross Benchers like Lambie. Then end up with a Conservative Senate.

    A move which failed spectacularly.

  29. Socrates

    Turnbull has been flying back to Australia. To be fair its hard to put your head up when that is happening and you are also recovering from Jet Lag.

    So last nights Senate Nationals voting against the government are still in category of while the mouse is away.

    QT is going to be fun with Labor boosted by another Newspoll and such material to attack the LNP on. Dutton’s comments the Nationals voting to end Howard’s gun ban.

    Such rich territory for Labor here.

  30. cat

    The Senate reforms were good. The DD was not. Thus the Greens won that battle and Turnbull lost. Bait and switch I think its called.

    A result of the DD? The right of the party was emboldened and has been doing me too on Trump politics. Partly due to Hanson and partly due to US election campaign.
    We saw the reaction of the population to that on QandA last night.

    Unlike the US compulsory voting means that the popular vote counts as the swinging vote that decides elections has already rejected the policies of Trump and gone with Labor’s platform of save Medicare Social Security have a Bank RC. Tax multinationals.
    Very similar sounding to the Sanders platform.

    As a result the right in Australia is in very different place as they have split as results roll in including the leaking of likely results on December 19 of MYEFO.

  32. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. As advised yesterday this will be the last Dawn Patrol from BK until next Tuesday.

    Phil Hudson in The Australian analyses Newspoll and deduces that Turnbull is losing his economic touch. Google.
    /national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-another-labor-win-as-turnbull-loses-his-economic-touch/news-story/c587b4df4a3f655feb96eeecffa3a0a2
    The government got its Registered Organisations bill (with whistleblower protection amendments) through the Senate this morning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-passes-coalition-bill-targeting-unions-in-marathon-overnight-sitting-20161121-gsufcx.html
    Michelle Grattan writes on the passage of said bill.
    https://theconversation.com/deal-on-whistleblowers-wins-first-double-dissolution-bill-69176
    The Nats have flexed their muscles in the Senate over the Adler shotgun ban. Big George described it as “a warning shot fired above the government’s bow”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nationals-stage-a-latenight-revolt-in-the-senate-over-the-adler-shotgun-ban-20161121-gsueqe.html
    Laura Tingle says that Morrison is going to have to hit the reset button on the budget as he is being kicking and screaming to face reality. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/scott-morrison-is-going-to-have-to-hit-the-reset-button-on-the-budget-20161121-gsu7q4
    Ever heard of “thunderstorm asthma? Now we have.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/emergency-services-declare-major-disaster-after-mass-thunderstorm-asthma-event-20161121-gsuezc.html
    Nicholas Stuart says that Dutton thinks he’s got the magic touch to lead the Liberal Party out of its hole.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/peter-dutton-thinks-hes-got-magic-touch-to-lead-liberal-party-out-of-its-hole-20161121-gsttk2.html
    John Passant says that Turnbull talks “tax trash”.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/turnbull-talks-tax-trash,9753
    Here’s an essay from David Marr on how hostility towards immigrants is on the rise as Australians despair of the government.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/22/hostility-towards-immigrants-on-rise-as-australians-despair-over-government
    Is this the end for tax deductions on non-compulsory uniforms?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/government-proposes-to-scrap-tax-deductions-for-work-clothes-20161121-gstw64.html
    It would be a shame to see Adrian Piccolo lose his education ministership. Many others share that opinion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/education-leaders-throw-support-behind-nsw-education-minister-adrian-piccoli-20161121-gstwkf.html

  33. Section 2 . . .

    There are so many options for Trump in choosing his administration but he goes for the ugly. The last paragraph says it all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/there-are-so-many-options-yet-donald-trump-picks-the-ugly-20161120-gstp4j.html
    State by state Greg Jericho examines our changing economy and asks what is the key to healthy economic growth.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/22/our-changing-economy-state-by-state-whats-the-key-to-healthy-growth
    Andrew Street says that Turnbull is about to find out if the DD was worth it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/malcolm-turnbull-is-about-to-find-out-if-the-double-dissolution-election-was-worth-it-20161120-gsto5g.html
    The moment the US gave the world to China.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-moment-china-overtook-the-us-as-leader-of-the-free-world-20161121-gsttke.html
    The Trump card leaves migrant workers in Australia at a lass according to this SMH editorial.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/trump-card-leaves-migrant-workers-at-a-loss-20161117-gss3cy.html
    How Trump could use the White House to enrich himself and his family. Will this stain and haunt his presidency?
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/how-president-trump-could-use-the-white-house-to-enrich-himself-and-his-family-20161120-gstpc2.html
    If this doesn’t frighten you noting will.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/heil-victory-altright-salutes-presidentelect-donald-trump-20161121-gsufct.html
    And right on cue . . .
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-is-president–theyll-deport-you-soon-man-filmed-berating-muslim-driver-20161121-gsuftv.html
    Read whatever you will into this as the Pope says that it’s now OK in perpetuity for priests to forgive the “grave sin” of abortion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/pope-francis-permits-priests-to-forgive-the-sin-of-abortion-20161121-gsuf5h.html
    Brian Morris explains why politicised religion is at odds with the public mood on contemporary social policy. A good article.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/11/20/killing-euthanasia-laws-politicians-piety-and-popular-public-policy/

  34. Morning all, on commercial radio on a bus, when reporting the Newspoll, the ‘best economic management ‘ figure was mentioned.
    Now back to more ‘smooth’ hits.
    I think this figure, with MYEFO coming up will be a killer.

  35. As Shane Wright just observed on Newsradio, these ‘wins’ on the IR legislation are irrelevant to the man in the street or the pub front bar. It’s not particularly relevant to their lives and it’s mainly being used by way of an attack on Labor. He thinks people are much more concerned about their tenuous jobs situation.

    Plus he made the ironic comment that these Bills were so important that the nation went to an early election because of them, but they weren’t mentioned in the actual election itself. Jobs and Growth were, however they have been mentioned hardly at all since the election. He also thinks the government will be scratching for an agenda next year.

  36. Section 3 . . .

    In a disturbing report it is revealed that dozens of health professionals die from drug overdoses every year.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/dozens-of-health-professionals-fatally-overdosing-on-drugs-every-year-20161121-gsu033.html
    Culleton channels “The Castle” in his High Court appearance yesterday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ive-already-won-rod-culleton-declares-as-high-court-rejects-his-bid-to-delay-hearing-20161121-gstzce.html
    Don’t look at magazines for health advice.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/looking-for-health-advice-dont-consult-health-magazines-try-dolly-20161120-gstofb.html
    The Catholic Church sets up a company to “name and shame” over failures in the management of child sexual abuse.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/religion/2016/11/22/new-standards-body-catholic-church/
    The ICC should throw the book at South Africa over ball tampering.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/cricket/2016/11/21/south-africa-ball-tampering/

  37. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Mark David with Brandis’s latest gaffe.

    Cathy Wilcox with the government’s use of a Trump Trojan horse.

    Just look at this David Rowe contribution!

    And more form David Rowe on Morrison’s surplus problems.

    Paul Zanetti on stage with Turnbull and Obama.

    Mat Golding gets it.

    Mark Knight inside Trump Tower with Melania and the little darling.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/32574aed2b0e8647f0e39697e0677fd5?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka with Morrison’s latest brilliant advice on surpluses.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/454cd7381c0dc18c9c795029dd9497e1
    David Pope sends us greetings from APEC.

    Ron Tandberg at the US Comedy Festival.

  42. Cat

    However long term its all good. The split is on. When Labor gets back in the restraints on LNP bickering will be off.
    Its already surfacing and it will be a free for all when the LNP are the opposition.
    I suspect we will see long years in the wilderness for them as they try and find relevance in the post neo liberal world

  43. I do love the way that highly visible member of the Broad Church of the LNP, or at least one of its schisms, George Christiansen, describes the naysayers conduct a “a warning shot fired above the government’s bow” without apparently contemplating the imagery of his description. He does realise that they’re on the same ship as the government and thus firing at themselves, right?

  45. Morning all

    It is so frustrating to observe the reports in the media re the weather. Yesterday here in Melbourne we had 35 degrees. The cool change came through and today we wont get more than 17 degrees. That in itself is not unusual for Melbourne, but the cool change came with a severe storm that once again caused havoc. Also, as posted above, we had an unprecedented emergency referred to “thunderstorm asthma”.
    We are living through these extreme weather events now. But of course our media continues to do a”meh”. Nothing to see here. Move along. Sigh………

  47. victoria

    It wasn’t only asthma sufferers, apparently. I live too far out to get the ‘Melbourne effect’; didn’t even have thunderstorms, but a friend from Parkville wrote:

    We’re having an “extreme” pollen day here, and I suppose you are too. My eyes are burning and streaming and I’m sneezing all the time. I ducked out … this morning for the next lot of visitors but going outside only made things worse.

  48. DIn a sign the government is prepared to pull out all stops to go into the Christmas break with a significant win, Mr Turnbull, who was attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in the Peruvian capital, also rang Senator Leyonhjelm to assure him personally the action had been stopped. Senator Leyonhjelm was unaware any action was pending and, hence, had made no demands of the government.

    The Liberal Party had been preparing to appeal a decision by the Australian Electoral Commission regarding the LDP’s prominent use of the word “Liberal” in its logo which appears on ballot papers.

    Previously, the Liberal Party had fought the LDP over the use of the word “Liberal” in its name after a favourable position on the large Senate ballot paper at the 2013 election saw Senator Leyonhjelm elected with a large number of primary votes.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-ends-legal-action-to-woo-david-leyonhjelm-20161120-gstmx6#ixzz4QgI209Fo
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  49. william bowe @ #107 Monday, November 21, 2016 at 11:37 pm

    From a book published in 1998:

    Members of labor unions, and unorganized unskilled workers, will sooner or later realize that their government is not even trying to prevent wages from sinking or to prevent jobs from being exported. Around the same time, they will realize that suburban white-collar workers — themselves desperately afraid of being downsized — are not going to let themselves be taxed to provide social benefits for anyone else.
    At that point, something will crack. The nonsuburban electorate will decide that the system has failed and start looking around for a strongman to vote for — someone willing to assure them that, once he is elected, the smug bureaucrats, tricky lawyers, overpaid bond salesmen, and postmodernist professors will no longer be calling the shots. …
    One thing that is very likely to happen is that the gains made in the past 40 years by black and brown Americans, and by homosexuals, will be wiped out. Jocular contempt for women will come back into fashion. … All the resentment which badly educated Americans feel about having their manners dictated to them by college graduates will find an outlet.

    Sounds a bit like Nostradamus .. “In the new millenium … a strongman will arise … he will promise to evict the moneylenders … and dissent shall be suppressed … the rural folk shall hail him … a trumpet shall announce his coming …”

    Actually, I just made that up – but in the same way that Nostradamus wrote enough general predictions so that you can find one suitable for just about any situation, I guess that if you trawl through enough political science books, you’d find one with a successful prediction.

    Still … makes you wonder what’s in the rest of the book!

  50. Lizzie

    I am not an asthma sufferer, but I have been dealing with chronic hay fever this year. My doctor recommended I use ventolin to assist me because of the extreme irritants this year. It helped me immensely yesterday.

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