Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both lose ground on the question of best person to lead their party, as voting intention remains largely unchanged.

Essential Research records incremental movement away from the Coalition on its fortnightly rolling average, on which the Coalition and Labor are now both on 37% on the primary vote with the former down one on last week, although two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. The Greens are up a point to 11%, One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Other findings:

• Contra a recent result from Morgan, Malcolm Turnbull retains the narrowest of leads over Julie Bishop as preferred Liberal leader, with Turnbull down nine since immediately after the election to 21%, Bishop up four to 20% and Tony Abbott up two to 11%. The same question for Labor finds Bill Shorten’s election campaign spike disappearing – he’s down ten to 17%, with Tanya Plibersek up two to 14% and Anthony Albanese up one to 12%.

• Forty-four per cent would sooner see the words “humiliate or intimidate” than “offend or insult” in section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, but only 17% think Australia’s racial discrimination laws too strict, against 26% for too weak and 40% for about right.

• There is strong support for a range of campaign finance reforms, including immediate disclosure, $5000 donations caps, and bans on foreign donations and donations by companies and unions. However, most oppose banning donations and having only public funding for party spending.

• Thirty-three per cent said they took more interest in the American election than the Australian, compared with 22% for vice-versa and 38% for the same amount.

• Sixty-three per cent say institutions involved in child sex abuse claims should pay compensation, 14% say the government should do so, and 7% say neither.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Re Dan Gulberry @6:53PM: ” … after doggedly honing in on Australia’s Achilles heel – batting, bowling and fielding.”

    All the other cricketing stuff is OK then.

  3. Right wing? Maybe it’s biology. Those who have measurably higher levels of threat sensitivity – recorded via changes in skin conductance, for example, when presented with a threatening image – are more likely to support law and order policies such as mandatory sentences and the death penalty, increased defence spending, restrictions on immigration, gun rights, unifying, patriotic displays, and traditional lifestyles such as heterosexual families.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2112732-my-biology-made-me-do-it-why-some-voters-may-embrace-the-right/?utm_source=NSNS&utm_medium=ILC&utm_campaign=webpush&cmpid=ILC%257CNSNS%257C2016-GLOBAL-webpush-BIOLOGYMADE

  4. Let us hope that enough SA MPs have the courage to put aside their religious indoctrination and vote to pass the voluntarybeuthanasia bill. This is described as an ethical debate. That is false. Ethically there is no debate the moral course is to give suffering individuals the right to choose their own fate. The debate is about how not to offend religious minorities. Even the catholic church is a minority in Australia. Actual churchgoers are outnumbered by Greens voters.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-15/sa-debates-voluntary-euthanasia/8024210?WT.ac=statenews_sa

  5. sir pajama pudding of lake disappointment @ #267 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 10:04 pm

    Saw this on a blog in the US:

    ………But now he’s going to have to actually WORK, he’s going to be forced to deal with RESPONSIBILITIES, while surrounded by people who hate him and don’t respect him, people vastly more intelligent and competent than him, and he will be exposed as a loser. And then, we’ll fire him. He’ll go down as the worst president in history. And he’ll have no one to blame but himself.

    Thank you, you made my day.

  6. confessions @ #271 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    Poroti:
    Bill Maher does it even better, with modern day real life egs of how it fails.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtNbMD96xgY

    Thanks Fess. That is important information that we never normally hear about, that is a keeper.

    Maher makes it funny and interesting, but the message comes through loud and clear.

    Truffles is trying to do the same thing as failed US states, with predictable results.

  9. c@tmomma @ #272 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    To which I might add that President Obama is so good, he made the job of POTUS look easy. Even with a Republican-controlled Congress. He still figured out how to get things done. Now the Barbarians have stormed the

    I don’t know if you or others have been following the Joe Biden memes of the love and good humour between Joe and Barack. They are a delight, and demonstrate what a good wing man Biden is, and the taken-for-granted complete competence and domination of the job that Obama brought to the office.

    Here is one set, there are many more.

    http://imgur.com/gallery/pDFAE

  10. For those like me who didn’t know what the last meme was about, ‘fleek’ was nominated as word of the year last year:

    ” In fact, “on fleek” was just nominated by the American Dialect Society for its 2015 “Word of the Year” in the “Most Likely to Succeed” category.

    and fleek does usually appear in the phrase on fleek. Like the phrase on point, it’s used to mean basically “perfectly done” or “exactly right.”

  13. I just heard Rudy Guiliani (now suggested as new Secretary of State!), state that Trump is going to massively expand America’s Military to be far and away the largest and most powerful in the world! Take that China and Russia! He also mentioned a ‘2 Ocean Strategy’. So America is really going to be turned into a land island, bristling with military and guns trained on furriners everywhere and the out of work Coal Miners will be back to work to produce the energy source for the re-opened steel factories making the steel that goes into the Military Industrial Complex.

    The new Ugly American Administration and it’s plans.

  14. I get the feeling that in a couple of years we will look back on the Obama presidency like a modern version of The West Wing, except, except it was real

  15. The military, reopening coal mines and cutting environmental regulation are things Trump can do and so have some wins, to paper over disappointment for things he can’t do.
    A bit like ‘we stopped the boats’ Abbott.

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Now Mike Baird goes from bad to worse as he attempts to nobble ICAC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-mike-baird-risks-being-known-as-the-man-who-destroyed-icac-20161115-gsq1vw.html
    And the ICAC chief hits back!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-baulks-at-icac-reform-without-megan-latham-as-commissioner-20161115-gspg4l.html
    Mark Kenny writes about Turnbull’s frantic response to Bill Shorten’s comments on 457 visas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-workers-row-malcolm-turnbull-hits-out-at-bill-shortens-rank-opportunism-20161115-gspyiw.html
    More on the subject from Mark Kenny as he says that foreign workers are becoming “ground zero” in the new political order.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/foreign-workers-ground-zero-in-the-new-political-order-20161115-gspi5m.html
    Phil Coorey tells us that Turnbull was planning his own 457 visa changes. Google.
    /news/malcolm-turnbulls-government-was-planning-its-own-457-visa-changes-20161114-gspbmx
    Ross Gittins looks at why some jobs are more satisfying than others. One interesting concept is that FAIR pay as opposed to HIGH pay is a factor.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-some-jobs-are-more-satisfying-than-others-20161114-gspe0j.html
    Peter Martin on how our RBA governor has said that Trump’s trade policies are dangerous and are probably his biggest concern.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trumps-trade-policy-is-dangerous-says-reserve-bank-governor-philip-lowe-20161115-gsq4fo.html
    A Senate committee has been told by public servants that Defence Department chiefs have been lying about pay and conditions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/defence-department-bosses-lying-on-pay-and-conditions-say-public-servants-20161115-gspiuh.html
    Meanwhile the Coalition faces an industrial relations revolt from its own staffers. Over to you Michaelia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/coalition-faces-industrial-relations-revolt-from-its-own-staffers-over-public-sector-stance-20161115-gsprw6.html
    Inside the New York office of ANZ. It’s not pretty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/sex-clubs-racial-insults-inside-anzs-new-york-office-20161115-gspjd2.html
    In typical whingeing form Australia’s champion cry-baby Gerry Harvey threatens to walk away from AGMs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/gerry-harvey-threatens-to-walk-away-from-agms-20161115-gspois.html

  17. Section 2 . . .

    Nick McKenzie tells us about the unsavoury truths behind our fruit. He points to the exploitation of workers in the industry. Who in government is going to really go after this?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-unsavoury-truths-behind-our-fruit-20161115-gspthe.html
    One Victorian company has already been sprung.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace-relations/another-supermarket-fruit-supplier-caught-allegedly-underpaying-migrants-20161115-gspu0v.html
    For those following the progress of the CA Royal Commission this is really worth reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/it-takes-a-village-to-prevent-institutional-sexual-abuse-20161115-gspnwk.html
    Peter Martin on the call by the IMF for Australia to spend more on its infrastructure needs.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/spend-more-on-infrastructure-to-avoid-new-mediocre-imf-tells-coalition-20161115-gsptyv.html
    It’s clear that the government is doubling down on the ABC and other “elite media” – whatever that means.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/malcolm-turnbulls-change-of-tune-strains-abc-friendship-20161115-gspht4.html
    The Masters experiment is still hurting Woolworths as court action is threatened by disgruntled landlords.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/woolies-landlords-revolt-over-masters-deal-20161114-gspcks.html
    The AMA says that the latest bulk billing figures show that GPs can’t keep absorbing the Medicare rebates freeze.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/15/medicare-bulk-billing-drop-shows-gps-cannot-absorb-rebate-freeze-says-ama
    This Adelaide palliative care doctor poignantly urges politicians in SA to let the terminally ill people in insufferable pain to elect to end their life. I just hope this legislation gets up. Google.
    /news/opinion/roger-hunt-terminally-ill-south-australians-deserve-more-than-being-left-to-die-in-agonising-debilitating-pain/news-story/d5990e80c333e355a99d70991c8e3ed0
    This piece in The Conversation calls out Mike Pence for venous stupidity over his ties with Big Tobacco.
    https://theconversation.com/if-smoking-doesnt-kill-mike-pence-neither-does-the-plague-68750
    Penny Wong has come out and said that the Trump presidency should force Australia to rethink its US alliance and turn towards Asia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/donald-trump-presidency-should-force-rethink-of-us-alliance-says-alps-penny-wong-20161115-gspvom.html
    A leaked memo suggests the UK government has no overall plan for Brexit. And there are splits in Theresa May’s cabinet.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/uk-government-has-no-overall-plan-for-brexit-leaked-memo-20161115-gsq3gd.html

  18. Section 3 . . .

    Traumatised primary school children are writing to Trump about how they feel.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/traumatised-by-election-primary-school-children-write-to-tell-donald-trump-how-they-feel-20161115-gspr71.html
    Trump’s tangled web of family and business ties.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trumps-tangled-web-of-family-and-business-ties-20161114-gspd1w.html
    Three good reasons to worry about Trump having the nuclear codes.
    https://theconversation.com/three-good-reasons-to-worry-about-trump-having-the-nuclear-codes-68576
    Global security leaders have some good climate change advice for Trump
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/11/15/global-security-leaders-have-some-climate-change-advice-for-dona/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    This lawyer writes about neutralising Pauline Hanson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/neutralising-pauline-hanson,9728
    The Trump transition team is in disarray as a key adviser is “purged”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/15/donald-trump-transition-team-disarray-adviser-purge
    Obama has said that Trump has tapped into a “troubling strain” writes Latika Bourke.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/donald-trump-tapped-into-troubling-strain-says-president-obama-20161115-gsq4la.html
    Owen Jones says that the win for Trump was a win for bigotry and he tells us how to resist him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/15/trump-win-bigotry-authoritarian-america
    Now we are told that the Trump victory will push up fixed-rate loans.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/trump-victory-tipped-to-push-up-fixedrate-loans-20161115-gspldy.html
    Trump’s announced Chief Strategist is a “layer cake of horrors” writes Cindy West.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/15/steven-bannon-trump-chief-strategist-breitbart-white-house-dangerous

  19. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner part 1

    Sexual assault refugee victims must return to Nauru for a chance of resettlement writes Amy Remeikis.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sex-assault-victims-will-have-to-return-to-nauru-manus-for-chance-at-us-resettlement-20161115-gspnel.html
    Peter Lewis piles into the Coalition’s right wing rump over its 18c dog whistling.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/16/confecting-a-moral-panic-around-18c-is-easier-than-solving-our-real-problems
    How the ATO is using social media to identify tax cheats. Fair enough.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/your-budget/2016/11/15/ato-tax-cheats-facebook/
    The NSW RSL scandal deepens.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/rsl-payments-scandal-deepens-as-more-nsw-officials-quit-20161115-gspjul.html
    Peter Lalor writes that we have an incalculable cricket crisis. Google.
    /sport/cricket/832-05-adds-up-to-an-incalculable-cricket-crisis/news-story/32f7d13697c49f7623390e45f7ae9389
    Shorten has challenged Turnbull to get his MPs to sign up to a new code of race ethics. Good luck Bill.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/16/shorten-turnbull-labor-race-ethics-code-coalition

    Mark David on the latest government attack o the ABC.

    Cathy Wilcox and some dark clouds on the horizon.

    David Rowe with Bill Shorten at the barbershop.

    Chris Downes with a kids’ excursion with the archbishop.

  20. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner part 2

    Sean Leahy has a different view of the super moon.

    As does Broelman.

    Valdman on immigration and emigration.

    Ron Tandberg drops in on the refugee negotiation with Obama.

    Mark Knight celebrates the end of the Bombers’ saga.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9f4059122e365edbbd3422a00687125d?width=1024
    Andrew Dyson on how Trump will “drain the swamp”.

    David Pope introduces the Australian batting line-up for the Trump Test.

  22. The English Guardian sure is coming up with some fantastic articles on what a Trump era is likely to be manifest as. Here’s another by Zoe Williams:

    It was David Remnick, editor of the New Yorker, who crystallised the situation into a chilling shard, following the US presidential election result. Speaking on CNN, he said: “When I listen to Conrad Black describe Donald Trump, I think I’m hallucinating. When I hear him described as not sexist, not racist, not playing on white fears, not arousing hate, when he’s described in a kind of normalised way, as someone in absolute possession of policy knowledge, as someone who’s somehow in the acceptable range of rhetoric, I think I’m hallucinating. And I fear for our country, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to do so. I accept the results of our election, of course I do. At the same time, I think Vladimir Putin played a distinct role in this election, and that’s outrageous. And we’ve normalised it already. You would think that Mitt Romney had won.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/15/dangerous-fantasy-donald-trump-normalisation-us-president-elect-barbarism

  25. I have just watched last night’s catalyst on iview. Very appropriate that the final episode for the year was about the Anthropocene.

    One quote that stood out, from Will Steffen, on accepting what is happening:
    “The most ignorant are the economists. The ones who do get it are the defence forces and security people.”

  26. Morning all

    Like most people including the media elite, I am trying to figure out how Trump is going to lead and manage his team. He may well turn out to be like George W Bush, who deferred all his power to Dick Cheney. We know how that all turned out. Sigh……

  28. ** He may well turn out to be like George W Bush **
    George spent a lot of time on the golf course. He was a rabbit in the headlights and the golf course was his safe place.

  30. Bloody heck Lizzie. That means we have Macca on local radio and Switzer on RN. Like tossing a coin where Heads I lose and Tails you win.

    Will Switzer continue with his Thursday slot as well (repeated after Green on Sudnay)?

  32. This gave me a chuckle

    Likes
    Tweets
    Ana Navarro
    7h7 hours ago
    Ana Navarro ‏@ananavarro
    Convo-
    Friend: “Been a week since the election, how u feeling about Trump?”
    Me: “Like he’s a huge kidney stone I’ll be passing for 4 years.”

    2,509

    8,287

    Ana Navarro
    22h22 hours ago
    Ana Navarro ‏@ananavarro

  34. Lizzie

    The ones who do get it are the defence forces and security people.”

    Doing some work on renewable energy/fuels I was amazed to find that for at least a couple of decades the US military have been putting an enormous effort into renewable energy sources and biofuels.

  37. lizzie @ #352 Wednesday, November 16, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Rod_Hagen ‏@Rod_Hagen · 27m27 minutes ago
    IPA’s Tom Switzer to replace Jonathan Green on RN Sunday mornings! Mad! https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/nov/16/radio-national-to-lose-eight-staff-as-abc-cuts-several-programs-from-2017-schedule?CMP=share_btn_tw …

    Blast! Just saw this bit …

    Sources told Guardian Australia all but one of RN’s music programs will be cancelled as the network becomes a talk-only station.

    ‘The Inside Sleeve’ and ‘The Music Show’ were two of the best things on RN!

    Guthrie is really taking her mandate of dismantling anything of commercial value on the ABC to heart. How appalling. Why don’t they just turn the whole station over to the IPA?

  39. It looks like Labor is ramping up the pressure on Turnbull over policy – Penny Wong’s Fairfax article on foreign policy under a trump presidency (linked by BK) and Shorten on 457 visas.

    Turnbull seems paralysed over policy at the moment – now he is facing increased pressure from Labor on the one hand and unrelenting pressure from his party’s RWNJs on the other. His retreat into an attack on the “elite media” is a sure sign that he is not coping very well at all under pressure.

  40. Sources told Guardian Australia all but one of RN’s music programs will be cancelled as the network becomes a talk-only station.

    A public broadcaster version of Fox News!

  42. Poroti..

    ..seems Greens have decided to accuse Labor of following Hanson into her rat-infested racist swamp..

    ..of course, no nuanced analysis by the Greens ..at least publicly ..just rank political opportunism as usual!!

  43. [Markjs
    Wednesday, November 16, 2016 at 9:05 am
    I see the Greens are gearing up to attack Labor for trying to protect Aussie jobs..
    ..plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose..]

    Is Di Natale worried about losing his au pair?

  47. I see the Greens are gearing up to attack Labor for trying to protect Aussie jobs..

    Because you really want to be seen as the party advocating for overseas Visa holders to get the jobs on offer instead of Aussies!?!

  49. ‘Conservative commentator Tom Switzer, an adjunct fellow of the IPA, has been given another show in addition to Between The Lines.’

    The IPA takeover continues apace.

  50. Great comment on the Guardian story:

    ‘I have stopped using the ABC in almost every medium. The appointment of IPA flack Switzer to replace Green is further evidence of the writing being on the wall for this once great public institution. It is clear that Guthrie has only one purpose, and that is to gut out the ABC and prepare it for eventual sale to the likes of Murdoch and Stokes. All very sad, but it has ceased to be of any value as a media outlet. Another great publicly owned Australian institution destroyed by neo – liberal ideology.’

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