Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both lose ground on the question of best person to lead their party, as voting intention remains largely unchanged.

Essential Research records incremental movement away from the Coalition on its fortnightly rolling average, on which the Coalition and Labor are now both on 37% on the primary vote with the former down one on last week, although two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. The Greens are up a point to 11%, One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Other findings:

• Contra a recent result from Morgan, Malcolm Turnbull retains the narrowest of leads over Julie Bishop as preferred Liberal leader, with Turnbull down nine since immediately after the election to 21%, Bishop up four to 20% and Tony Abbott up two to 11%. The same question for Labor finds Bill Shorten’s election campaign spike disappearing – he’s down ten to 17%, with Tanya Plibersek up two to 14% and Anthony Albanese up one to 12%.

• Forty-four per cent would sooner see the words “humiliate or intimidate” than “offend or insult” in section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, but only 17% think Australia’s racial discrimination laws too strict, against 26% for too weak and 40% for about right.

• There is strong support for a range of campaign finance reforms, including immediate disclosure, $5000 donations caps, and bans on foreign donations and donations by companies and unions. However, most oppose banning donations and having only public funding for party spending.

• Thirty-three per cent said they took more interest in the American election than the Australian, compared with 22% for vice-versa and 38% for the same amount.

• Sixty-three per cent say institutions involved in child sex abuse claims should pay compensation, 14% say the government should do so, and 7% say neither.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 thoughts on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 35
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  1. LOL
    “Labor’s newest senator, Kimberley Kitching, says she remembers “being very surprised” when Federal Court judge Mordecai Bromberg decided to hear Herald Sun columnist Andrew Bolt’s racial discrimination case, given his close relationship with the Labor Party.

    Speaking with Bolt on his Sky News program The Bolt Report on Monday night, Senator Kitching said she had known Justice Bromberg through the Labor Party.”
    Great choice for a Senator.

  2. Adrian,
    Yep, the ABC is just a purveyor of trash and lies these days. On the positive side, Murdoch and Fairfax are finding it increasingly difficult to attack it for being leftist.

  3. How come Turnbull’s response to the question on 18c,that it is an ‘elite’ issue of the ABC, that the running has been done by News Corp,specifically the Australian?
    How many articles have they done on 18c?
    Why didn’t Sales mention that?

  4. Does anyone know who is financing the IPA? They really are getting too much air on the ABC and worry about their appalling list! Can’t believe Michelle Guthrie replaced the likeable Jonathan Greene with IPA’s Tom Switzer….my regular listening with Background Briefing. I won’t be listening to IPA shills if I can avoid it.
    Can’t stand Macca….as a lover of radio, can someone suggest a station that won’t rile on a lazy Sunday morning?

  6. Good morning all,

    They story in the AFR re the government having its own plans to tighten 457 visas is just another example of the political ineptitude of Turnbull and co.

    When Shorten and labor announced its renewed focus on 457 visas, Turnbull, instead of carefully supporting a review and crackdown and commenting that the government would announce its own changes in coming days, knee jerked and attacked Shorten and labor for rank opportunism etc etc.

    Turnbull had the chance to cut this off at the knees before labor took ownership of the issue but once again he could not look beyond attacking Shorten.

    Any announcement now re a crackdown will look like a reaction to labor and following rather than leading. As well, after abusing and attacking labor for its position he will now look like a hypocrite.

    Hopeless ineptitude.

    Hate to say it but George Christensen has shown more political awareness than Turnbull on this.

    Cheers.

  7. Erasmus
    I had a long conversation with Tim Wilson on twitter,when he was still with them,he terminated conversation and blocked me when I produced proof big tobacco companies were major contributors to IPA.

  9. Good Morning

    Erasmus

    I suggest you try BBC current affairs apps. Otherwise fairfax the Guardian etc have some podcasts that are basically radio shows online. Failing that there is alwasys the very often overlooked community radio. 3PR I think is good for current affairs as is at time 2SER in Sydney

  10. Erasmus,
    as a lover of radio, can someone suggest a station that won’t rile on a lazy Sunday morning?

    Newsradio has some amazing long-form investigative stories from around the world on a Sunday morning. All day, actually. Deutsche Wielle, NPR and BBC. I often pop it on when I am in the kitchen cooking.

  12. Well Turnbull has succeeded partially with 357 visas, no one is talking about a banking RC, for this week at least.
    Given what Trump is likely to do on banks in the USA and the associated commentary here a banking RC won’t go away.

  14. Diogenes

    Kitching isn’t neutralising Bolt. She’s giving him more ammunition for his obsession with 18C.

    She knows the size of his dick – and isn’t bound by medical ethics…

    C@Tmomma

    Exactly. There’s more than one way to skin a cat.

  15. Diogenes
    ” Great choice for a Senator. ”
    Dio,
    We must only compliment the good Shorten does here, and highlight corruption in the Liberal party. we must never criticise bad/dubious Shorten does, or highlight corruption in Labor figures, even if it costs labor elections. Shorten is not “bent” he is “street-smart”.

    That way, when Labor does lose elections, they can act surprised. (This strategy worked really well for Hillary and the democrats in USA recently too.)

  20. ‘Why didn’t Sales mention that?’

    Sales lacks the inclination or intellect to respond to what an interviewees says. She has a list of prepared questions and that’s about it.

    In this respect and a few others, Speers would be a vast improvement.

  21. Guytaur
    Too wrongs make a right – why didn’t I think of that!

    And wasn’t NSW Labor a great help to making the party electable at both State and Federal level? Great to see under Shorten, Victorian Labor is now catching up. Yes, with Kitching in parliament, it is going to be so great. So great.

  22. I’ve just been listening to a very sober judgement of Trump, why he succeeded and why a more extremely Left candidate like Bernie Sanders wouldn’t have. It’s by a guy called Sam Harris:

    https://youtu.be/UcmmJqRbRbQ

    I could not believe how long it was when I first saw it and I thought it would bore me rigid with more of the same that we have heard already. However it was more nuanced than that and I actually stayed with it until the end. I hope you do too because we all need to take a more nuanced attitude to America in the era of Trump.

  26. ‘Socrates

    As much as Labor NSW was toxic they did not stoop to nobbling the ICAC like Baird is alleged to be doing’

    What’s with the ‘alleged’?
    Bambi seems determined to make himself as toxic as possible. Wish we had a few more by-elections coming up in NSW.

  27. Kitching epitomises all the forces that just undid Hillary in USA. The last thing we need in Federal parliament, now more than ever, is another insider with questionable financial links and a questionable past, who has never had a normal working career.

    Catmomma
    Thanks. I too have wondered why switching to Sanders would have won it for the democrats. The evangelicals I referred to in my earlier post would never have voted for him, any more than they voted for Hillary.

  30. Re IPA
    Known contributors include Big Tobacco, mining sector and I think Gina R is a MAJOR contributor.
    I find it amusing re their titles for their so called researchers aka shrills E.g Adjunct fellow
    Speaking of fellows newbie shrill Georgina Downer is now a regular on the Friday Wrap with Jon Faine on 774 ABC Melbourne
    How did this person ever make it through university. A complete lightweight

  32. c@t

    Sam Harris has been described as one of the Four Horsemen Of The New Atheism (alongside Dawkins, Hitchens and Daniel Dennet).

    It’s worthwhile checking out some of his articles and videos on religion as well.

    Oh yeah, and he’s also a neuroscientist.

  36. lizzie @ #454 Wednesday, November 16, 2016 at 11:13 am

    Who were the alternatives to Kitching?

    There were a number of excellent alternatives.
    Some were no doubt deterred from nominating as ‘the fix was in’, but of those who did nominate, Wesa Chau was very impressive and ticked both the gender and ethnic diversity boxes.
    Just a little about her:

    Wesa was an ALP candidate in the 2013 Australian Federal Election in the seat of Higgins.

    She is a PhD candidate in leadership, holds Masters in Business Management; Graduate Diploma of Law; Bachelor of Engineering and Commerce (specialising in software engineering and marketing), and is a qualified teacher.

  39. Sorry Cat

    I tried
    Got 2/3 through – thought it was boring more of the same apologies. No real grasp of what happened. stopped paying too much attention when he said it was not about the economy.

  41. Bemused

    Did not Kitching have a relationship with Bolt?
    So yes she does know the sie of his tackle

    I was unaware of that.
    One more huge negative for her.

    You underestimate the power that shagging exerts over politics.

    For example, “mixed” relationships are the only thing that overcomes racism (and this is the reason hard core racists are so aggressive in condemning such)

  44. First Dog’s Sunday morning slot Guide to Modern Living has also been dropped, the cartoonist for Guardian Australia has revealed. He said in a post on Facebook he didn’t mind being axed but he was unhappy Switzer was taking over the program.

    “To be honest I don’t mind too much – we were talking about needing to refresh the format anyway (getting canned is very refreshing!) however I am annoyed that the IPA are taking over the whole Sunday morning.

    “Anyway, thanks to everyone who has listened to the worst 4 minutes of radio in Australia over the journey it has been extremely fun and you are all very nice.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/nov/16/radio-national-to-lose-eight-staff-as-abc-cuts-several-programs-from-2017-schedule?CMP=share_btn_tw

  46. Socrates
    While I agree that selecting Sanders would have been a high risk strategy, I have thought since way back in May that against TRUMP Sanders was the better selection but against any other Republican Clinton was the best bet.

    The best way to think about it is this:
    1. Clinton lost because she lost the rust belt – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. I think it is probable that Sanders would have carries these 4 states. Despite his left wing “credentials” it is obvious that this did not matter much and the “Russians are coming” clearly had no fear effect in these four states. I am not sure just what the repugs would have thrown at him to dent his popularity. He would of course have won lots of women and lots of men. Although he had less strong links with Latinos and Blacks than Hillary, these groups would have turned out for him anyway. For some reason Hillary did not click so strongly with Black evangelicals and I suspect Sanders may have got a little more (or similar) traction there.

    2. However Sanders was almost certainly too “left” for the South. if he had won the rust belt “firewall” this may not have mattered too much, however obviously Florida, would go Trump. However if Sanders won the rust belt, he would have to lose Virginia, Colorado and Nevada and New Mexico to have lost. Against Trump only Virginia would have been seriously at risk because Sanders was too “left.”

    So the mainstream Democrats are in damage control mode. They got it badly wrong, and are trying to deny the obvious. Sanders would probably have won against Trump. He would NOT have won against Rubio or Cruz or even Jeb Bush.

  47. Thanks for posting the twitter link to the Guardian story on the ABC, lizzie. In other very worrying news, the suggestion is that arch religious conservative and anti-abortion campaigner, even in the case of rape, Ted Cruz, is being touted as the new US Supreme Court judge.

  48. One more huge negative for her.

    That she was is a negative. That she is no longer is a huge positive. Shows she can learn from mistakes.

    And helping Bolt get stupid over 18c isn’t exactly the worst idea. The person most damaged by it’s continued prominence in the ‘elite media’ is Turnbull.

  49. Rod Hagen

    arch religious conservative and anti-abortion campaigner, even in the case of rape, Ted Cruz, is being touted as the new US Supreme Court judge.

    Hard to believe. 🙁

  50. If Bernie Sanders was wearing his red underpants and blue socks and Hilary decided not to wear her red bra then, perhaps, just perhaps , Sanders may have beaten Hillary in the primaries and then if he kept wearing his lucky underwear and socks the good people of Michigan etc may have decided to vote for him instead of staying home or voting for Trump.

    Sounds like a plan the democrats should have embraced ! Just as good as any other now hoping around post election.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it is amazing how many experts pop their head up after the event both in America and around the world.

    Cheers.

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