Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten both lose ground on the question of best person to lead their party, as voting intention remains largely unchanged.

Essential Research records incremental movement away from the Coalition on its fortnightly rolling average, on which the Coalition and Labor are now both on 37% on the primary vote with the former down one on last week, although two-party preferred is unchanged at 53-47. The Greens are up a point to 11%, One Nation is steady at 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Other findings:

• Contra a recent result from Morgan, Malcolm Turnbull retains the narrowest of leads over Julie Bishop as preferred Liberal leader, with Turnbull down nine since immediately after the election to 21%, Bishop up four to 20% and Tony Abbott up two to 11%. The same question for Labor finds Bill Shorten’s election campaign spike disappearing – he’s down ten to 17%, with Tanya Plibersek up two to 14% and Anthony Albanese up one to 12%.

• Forty-four per cent would sooner see the words “humiliate or intimidate” than “offend or insult” in section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act, but only 17% think Australia’s racial discrimination laws too strict, against 26% for too weak and 40% for about right.

• There is strong support for a range of campaign finance reforms, including immediate disclosure, $5000 donations caps, and bans on foreign donations and donations by companies and unions. However, most oppose banning donations and having only public funding for party spending.

• Thirty-three per cent said they took more interest in the American election than the Australian, compared with 22% for vice-versa and 38% for the same amount.

• Sixty-three per cent say institutions involved in child sex abuse claims should pay compensation, 14% say the government should do so, and 7% say neither.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. LU
    You can get a lot of things on King St Newtown for $15.

    A mate rented a terrace on the lower part of King Street. He had an open door policy. I remember sitting on his couch late one night when a very hairy, very smelly man walked in off the street and sat down next to me. Nobody knew him. He was completely naked.

  4. I don’t know how many of you have actually tried to employ people, but if you had you would know that it is very difficult to get Australians to work in a range of industries and sectors.

    Like most people, most employers are trying to do the right thing, and they wouldn’t go to the trouble and expense of hiring a 457 visa holder at a minimum salary of $53,900 if there was an Australian willing to do the job.

    If you don’t believe me, go and talk to an employer next time you go to a restaurant or whatever. They are not all shysters and spivs.

    I know that it is not what many of you want to hear, but it’s the truth.

  5. Worth noting that Shorten actually has competition from talented front benchers. Malcolm’s front bench is a conga-line of duds, including Madam Asbestos. What an appalling performance from Malcolm to only beat her by one percentage point.

  6. ADRIAN – How many of the employees actually get the $53,000? How many have to give a kick-back to their employer. Sorry, but my cynicism is massive where employers are concerned.

  7. Real Time Disclosure of donations to political parties and to campaigns is a no-brainer.
    Do we live in an ‘agile and innovative’ technological age or not!?! So why doesn’t Mr Agile and Innovative propose it!?! If he did it might even make his sad and sorry numbers trend in the positive direction.

    It’s called leadership and it seems to be what Malcolm Turnbull is most afraid to do.

    Pseudo-Churchillian speechifying. Tick.
    Attempting to wedge Labor at every turn. Tick.
    Blaming Labor for everything. Tick.
    Cosying up to the Military. Tick.
    Being an obsequious sycophant to the new American President-Elect. Tick.

    Leadership. Epic Fail.

  8. And meanwhile, Turnbull channels Trump and blames his problems on the “media elite”.

    “Media elite”? I looked up the LNP-Newscorp dictionary:

    Media Elite Any media that does not actively promote and support conservative / right wing policies and positions. Media outlets and jornalists who are critical of or who don’t support these policies and positions. Likewise any media and journalists that report on matters that are embarassing for or not of interest to conservatives and other right wingers (e.g. indigenous affairs, human rights, inequality, climate change).

  9. ‘ADRIAN – How many of the employees actually get the $53,000? How many have to give a kick-back to their employer. Sorry, but my cynicism is massive where employers are concerned.’

    Well the vast majority I would imagine. In contrast to common perception, the Dept of Immigration does monitor employers, as does FWC, and the ATO and Immigration share information.

  10. Adrian – “They are not all shysters and spivs.”
    I agree. But they have to compete against them. And many employers have large household monthly outgoings (have you seen private school fees lately?). There is immense pressure on them to maintain their families wealth and their status. I have seen many a good person turn into a mean exec under such circumstances.

    When things get tight they start to convince themselves that staff under performing or overpaid. They get incensed at the thought of paying LSL, frustrated at having to pay sick leave, annoyed at human resource management costs and overheads.

    They may not all be looking to abuse 457 visas. But some are. Some others try to outsource to overseas. Many turn to contractors and non-permanent staffing.

    Good honest employers should welcome a level playing field created by strong, enforced employment regulations.

  11. Adrian,
    I don’t know how many of you have actually tried to employ people, but if you had you would know that it is very difficult to get Australians to work in a range of industries and sectors.

    Absolute rubbish. I have two working age kids. One has tried to get work in the restaurant and cafe sector. If you don’t know the owner of the business, forget it. Or if you are not young and hot, forget it. And if you want Minimum Wage, Adult, forget it. Most businesses I have come across will employ young people up until they become Adults and are due the $53900. Then they get the sack.

    That’s reality. Not the sort of fantasy you are indulging in.

  12. ‘That’s reality. Not the sort of fantasy you are indulging in.’

    How many employers have you spoken to? I speak to a lot, most of whom are genuine, and they all say the same thing.

  13. From previous thread.
    antonbruckner11 @ #903 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 12:13 pm

    PO – I’m fascinated by how Julie Bishop is firming up as the alternative leader (at least in Essential) when the poor dear obviously doesn’t want the job (and knows she’s not up to the job).

    I think Bishop would be the perfect leader for this mob.
    She is relatively inoffensive.
    She inspires low expectations.
    She has no strong ideological baggage making her a perfect front for the RWNJs.
    The big question mark is her ability to perform in the Parliament.

  14. Don’t worry, Donald Trump seems pretty miserable about the election result too

    DEPRESSED about the result of the US election?

    Don’t worry, you’re not alone. The misery is written all over President-elect Donald Trump’s face.

    A few months ago, filmmaker Michael Moore claimed Mr Trump didn’t actually want to win the election. Today we learnt he expected his presidential campaign to be over by October … of last year.

    While only one person knows how Mr Trump truly feels about becoming president — Mr Trump himself — his recent demeanour suggests he isn’t all that keen on the idea.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/dont-worry-donald-trump-seems-pretty-miserable-about-the-election-result-too/news-story/aa87e3b4a7206bd76f3d6a7705dcb2b1

  15. I usually don’t a skerrick of notice of Adrian but would dearly love to see him do a year on the fruit and vegie trail and see whether or no he would change his mind about Australian workers.
    The problem is that Australians cannot work for an income that does not giving them a living. Foreigners who are just passing through, can, and will do so, for a variety of reasons.
    Part-time work, irregular rural work at irregular times in irregular locations which generate a non-living wage, combined with the considerable and deliberate complexity and bastardry of Coalition rules, and of Centrelink operating procedures, makes the whole thing a nightmare rather than something you would deliberately undertake.

    For example, if every second month you get a month’s work picking tomatoes, pumpkins and the like, you would spend six moths of your 12 months with no income at all because of the four weeks rule. You would still have to move around Australia to find the work at your own expense. You would have to find three or four different places of accommodation. If you got eight months unpredictable and irregular work you would almost certainly be in some sort of stoush with Centrelink because of overpayments. You would be in debt.
    Backpackers, 457s, illegal immigrants, workers on student visas are all quite happy to do so. Many of them connive with their employers not to pay tax. Their employers do pay Super, penalty rates, OH&S, payroll tax or any of that sort of bothersome rubbish. Their conditions are non-existent. If they complain they are sacked and/or threatened.

    Underpayment, sexual predation and the like, are rife. Complain and you are back in the home village – still heavily in debt to your Australian labour contractor (the one who recruited you, paid for your flights, and who holds first lien on your earnings).

    So, there is a beautiful circular myth operating here.
    Employers are forced to employ foreigners because Australians will not do the work because employers will not pay them a living wage so employers are forced to employ foreigners because Australia… and so and so forth.

  17. Up here you can get a meal for $1 – 1.50, as for haircuts, being follicularily challenged since my mid 20s, I’ve spent about $100 in the last 20 years on clippers.

  19. BIS – Julie would be a monumental dud as PM or leader of the opposition. She is just not up to it, and knows that. That’s why she’s not chasing the job. They would do much better electing a chair.

  20. A mate rented a terrace on the lower part of King Street. He had an open door policy. I remember sitting on his couch late one night when a very hairy, very smelly man walked in off the street and sat down next to me. Nobody knew him. He was completely naked.

    Perhaps he wanted a Brazilian? I believe you can get those for $10 in certain back-streets of Newtown.

  23. “Perhaps he wanted a Brazilian?”
    He wanted a shower, a toke, some cake and some small talk. He got all of that. He refused clothing of any sort.

  25. adrian @ #4 Tuesday, November 15, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    I don’t know how many of you have actually tried to employ people, but if you had you would know that it is very difficult to get Australians to work in a range of industries and sectors.
    Like most people, most employers are trying to do the right thing, and they wouldn’t go to the trouble and expense of hiring a 457 visa holder at a minimum salary of $53,900 if there was an Australian willing to do the job.
    If you don’t believe me, go and talk to an employer next time you go to a restaurant or whatever. They are not all shysters and spivs.
    I know that it is not what many of you want to hear, but it’s the truth.

    Adrian
    The problem is the enforcement. The rules are quite clear. But if they are too rarely enforced because the experienced DIBP staff are non-existent, then it’s a free for all. There is definitely a need for the 457 visa and it serves important and effective services, but the scope for abuse is also great. And coalition governments are not keen to do anything about it.

  26. Big Liberal whinger, Tony Nutt, says:

    “The idea that you could privatise the right to provide $21 billion of Medicare assistance to Australians is ludicrous and nobody thinks that’s going to happen.

    Every day voters in NSW are seeing the privatization of hospitals, rail services and motorways.

    People’s homes are being resumed at prices akin to theft (or get yourself a lawyer and see even more money go down the drain), then demolished to make way for works depots and then, when the work is completed, sold off to spiv mates for apartments.

    Pull the other one, Nutt. Medicare privatization was in progress, Bill just called you out on it. The gradual whittling away had and has begun. It needs to be stopped dead, by a scare campaign if necessary.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-15/liberal-party-boss-wants-new-laws-in-wake-of-mediscare-campaign/8027082

  28. ** SK, It wasn’t me. **
    You offer no proof.
    It was a long time ago. Maybe you have forgotten.

    Where you in the summer of 95/96?

  29. “Thirty-three per cent said they took more interest in the American interest than the Australian, compared with 22% for vice-versa and 38% for the same amount.”

    Ummm… what?

  30. Where you in the summer of 95/96?

    Straddie, I think. And a bit of time up, down and around Mt Barney. I offer no other evidence.

  35. What do these preferred leader percentages mean.

    Shorten 17%, Tanya 14%, Albo 12% = Total 43%

    Turnbull 21%, Mesma 20%, Abbott 11% = Total 52%

  36. Anyone who has any doubt that Mike Baird and his crew are a bunch of maddies should read this article on the privatisation of the Property Information Service in NSW. The proper administration of land titles is the core of our society, yet they want a mob like Macquarie Bank to administer it so they can build football stadiums (as if we don’t already have enough). Absolutely nuts.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-government-refuses-to-debate-the-land-titles-registry-sale-and-f6-property-bungle-20161113-gsom21.html

  38. ‘Anyone who has any doubt that Mike Baird and his crew are a bunch of maddies should read this article on the privatisation of the Property Information Service in NSW. The proper administration of land titles is the core of our society, yet they want a mob like Macquarie Bank to administer it so they can build football stadiums (as if we don’t already have enough). Absolutely nuts.’

    Agreed, this has got to be stopped. It is utter madness, and proof of what an ideologue Baird is beneath the (rapidly eroding) benign exterior.

  43. I can guarantee you were never around to mount Barney.

    But I did get stuck deep up the Logan valley one night when it started pouring with rain.

  44. ‘Adrian that’s fine, they can advertise locally first and when no applicants come forward they will be able to get 457 workers’

    Which is what happens already with some exceptions. It’s called Labor Market Testing.

  47. Chief media elitist Paul Kelly seems rather agitated at the sudden nationalistic approach to Aussie jobs.
    Seems he hasn’t got the message yet….

  48. Where’s GG? In a foetal position after watching the cricket? (I’m in a foetal position despite not being able to bring myself to watch it).

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