Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly result from Newspoll lands slightly at the high end of Labor’s recent form.

The Australian’s latest fortnightly Newspoll is a minor breakthrough for Labor, putting them ahead 53-47 after a series of 52-48s. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 38%, with the Coalition and Greens steady on 39% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and one on disapproval to 51%, with Bill Shorten unchanged at 36% and 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 42-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average likewise has Labor moving to a lead of 53-47, after two weeks of respite for the Coalition at 52-48. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged after rounding, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team up a point to 3%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 44%, Bill Shorten down three to 34% and up three to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 41-28 to 40-28.

The poll also ventures into American matters, with some fascinating results. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived things as being better in Australia than the United States over a range of issue areas, the biggest gap being 78% to 5% for access to health care, and the smallest being 38% to 19% for opportunities to succeed in business. Only on international influence was the US granted to be “better”, by 46% to 24%. Fifty-two per cent thought American influence to be weakening, with only 19% taking the opposite view. Hillary Clinton was favoured by 59% compared with 19% for Donald Trump, and Clinton was heavily favoured for all listed issues, with the strongest being relations with Australia (54% to 10%) and the weakest being preventing terrorist attacks in Australia (33% to 15%, with a particularly high 38% for makes no difference).

The government’s contentious new law on boat arrivals have strong support, with 56% approval and 29% disapproval. The view that the government is too tough on asylum seekers is up three points since August to 23%, while too soft is down five to 24%, but “the right approach” gains six to 37%, with don’t know down four to 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,363 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 48
1 2 3 4 … 48

  2. I do think that Labor might vote against the ‘ridiculous’ AS legislation then let the ridiculousness ramp up to eleventy as the government try to put arguments to the people about how ‘necessary’ this legislation is to send a message to People Smugglers…and anyone thinking of travelling here in 40 years time to a Conference. : )

  3. Peter Dutton: “tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people” are going to walk from Europe to Jakarta if we don’t ban refugees for life

    He’s one scared potato. He thinks that refugees can walk on water. What else could they do? Be afraid.
    😆 😆

  5. political_alert: Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs @SenatorWong will address the National Press Club at 12:30pm today #auspol #NPC pic.twitter.com/RVJkGU6LI4

  7. Desert Qlder

    Ah yes, oh for the good old days when Fran and Michelle would pore over every poll with the finest of fine toothed combs.

  10. NateSilver538: Good polls for Clinton today:
    Win probability: 65% –> 70%
    Popular vote: +2.9 –> +3.5
    projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-…

  11. ‘Ah yes, oh for the good old days when Fran and Michelle would pore over every poll with the finest of fine toothed combs.’

    I remember that Toolman and Jennet used to have quite a fascination with polling back in the day.

  12. The government voting against itself didn’t get a run last night on ABC TV News either ? Mentioned in fairfax though.

    Becoming too routine?

  13. Dave

    Look at 7:30. They went with the campaign against 18c and basically skated over the whole Senate mess. This despite interesting revelations today requiring good political analysis

  15. The ABC is mainly a propaganda unit for the Libs and the IPA, pure and simple.
    They barely attempt to disguise it these days.

    You only have to imagine if all this was happening under a Labor government.

  18. The ABC and/or Fairfax can try to run protection for Turnbull all they want. It isn’t working, the numbers are what they are.

  19. ‘The ABC and/or Fairfax can try to run protection for Turnbull all they want. It isn’t working, the numbers are what they are.’

    It just gradually erodes their own credibility more than anything else.

  20. QandA was a stand out last night. For any that missed it I recommend it.

    From seeing audience reaction of student from Balmain asking what is the difference between Trump’s wall and our immigration policy to the proper pointing out by Klein of the IPA agenda.

    Mr Albanese did not say much but that is because he did not need to and the points were more powerful coming from non politicians.

  26. Talking of media influence. This shows the trend yet again.

    joepompeo: News Corp. CEO Robert Thomson just said advertising at The Wall Street Journal was down 21% in the latest quarter.

  27. I don’t remember hearing the 53-47 Newspoll result mentioned by ABC radio this morning.

    Instead, we got boats, how- whatever it may be – it’s all Labor’s fault, and our-way-or-the-highway on super.

    The Coalition are all over the place. Their “agenda”(if that term applies) from 2014 is still not implemented. Their 2016 brainfarts – the Plebiscite, ABCC – have now spilled over into 2017. Their Senate reforms have delivered a worse Senate than before. God knows when the NBN will be finished.

    And so they go back to add some frills to their Boats mangum opus. It’s like a painting that the artist can’t leave alone, or a book that’s never finished being written.

    They are the government, yet it’s presented as some kind of Big Deal when they get anything through the Parliament, the dawn of a new age of Turnbullism, Malcolm in charge at last.

    Kenny wrote yesterday that “few would doubt” that deep down there was a decent, kinder Turnbull just waiting to get out. I have to saw I am one of the few. I think we’ve seen the real Malcolm Turnbull: vain, desperate, impotent… and cruel. After listening to Dutton this morning on AM, I came to the realization that Turnbull’s given up on trying to persuade or lead, and is now trying to wedge and cajole.

    Political point-scoring mostly only works with the Press Gallery, as they sit atop the sandpit during Question Time, looking down on the show put on purely for their benefit. What a waste of time. What a waste of a country that droogs like Dutton can be allowed to prosper in it, and ineffectual nobodies like Turnbull let their Duttons off the leash.

  28. Lizzie
    Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 8:30 am
    Peter Dutton: “tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people” are going to walk from Europe to Jakarta if we don’t ban refugees for life

    He’s one scared potato. He thinks that refugees can walk on water. What else could they do? Be afraid.

    Perhaps they will walk through the undersea tunnels that everyone knows are being built by a Chinese/Muslim consortium to invade Australia!

  31. CNN: Hillary Clinton: “This election is basically between division and unity in our country.” cnn.it/2ftgiyI cnn.it/2eGykyJ

    https://twitter.com/cnn/status/795739532859621376

    Sounds familiar as Turnbull pushes the right wing agenada falls in the polls and pushes more division to try and take votes off Labor.
    Just like Trump is losing by appealing to that demographic so the polls attest is the LNP doing the same.

  33. ‘I think we’ve seen the real Malcolm Turnbull: vain, desperate, impotent… and cruel.’

    ‘that about covers it.’

    Certainly does. I think all the rest probably stems from his vanity, overbearing ego, call it what you will.
    The amazing thing is, as with Abbott, most of us could see this long before a few press gallery ‘journalists’ woke up to the fact that Turnbull is a politically inept empty shell.
    Most of these idiots conveniently forgot about the Godwin Grech affair and what that very clearly told us about Turnbull.

  34. Despite the bad polls, Turnbull is safe by virtue of the close parliament. If the Libs remove Turnbull, he will resign from parliament and cause a by-election they would probably lose (unless Bishop/? has a honeymoon period). If the LNP had a 5 seat buffer, rather than a 1-2 seats, then Turnbull would be gone by now.

  36. It’s not wonder these numpties are falling in the polls. They spend the election campaign talking about Jobson Growth and then switch to 18C when in Govt. What’s not to love.
    I suspect Malcolm’s popularity rating will remain fairly steady now. What that rating won’t measure is the number of people shifting from “mildly disappointed” to “very disappointed”. As that happens the party polls numbers will continue to drop.

  37. adrian
    #133 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 10:22 am
    I have now concluded that Mr. Malcolm Bligh Turnbull has a reverse tin foil hat.
    This piece of decorative clothing serves to keep out rationality by translating ordinarily sensible communication into LNP dogma.
    The reverse happens when our protagonist speaks. His utterances are translated into nonsense and in the manner of a Cassandra in reverse, his audience receives his words as gospel while those who have a protective shield a la Poll Bludger understand that Mr Turnbull is actually naked in thought and perhaps indeed.

    Are we now having a competition as to who can predict the next government effup? The prize could be a trip to a senate sitting on a day of the winner’s choice. That day not to include a cold day in hell.

  38. So who’s right, or at least less wrong?

    SMH: ‘Hillary Clinton has 90 per cent chance of winning, according to latest Reuters/Ipsos poll’

    ABC: ‘Clinton backers nervous, Trump bullish in campaign’s final hours’

    Oh sorry, the ABC report is by Zoe Daniels, so I think I know the answer.

  41. And now on to more important matters………some earlier poster suggested there were too many WA players in the current Test side….which reminds one that to get to play for Australia, once upon a time, you had to play for NSW. In one Ashes series long ago, 10/11 players were from NSW.

  42. ‘Adrian

    I think the problem is that Daniels is travelling “with” the Trump team.’

    Yes, using the word travelling in its broadest possible sense.

  43. It’s just click bait. Perfectly so.

    There’s nothing – not.a.thing – we can do about the US Presidential election here. We cannot influence it in any way.

    There are literally no consequences to biased coverage by Australian media of a US election. And if that biased coverage produces “hits” on a web site, or “clicks” on a Fairfax video (with obligatory TV commercial every time now).

    The election coverage is perfect Reality TV: a broadcast format that allows the viewer just about the full gamut of emotions from love to hate, from suspense to boredom, and from fierce loyalty to angry revenge – with the added bonus of the tribalism that comes from irrationally taking sides – and to then switch off, sated, without the slightest consequences to one’s personal situation.

    The last two weeks have been perfect Reality TV. I can’t get too excited about biased coverage for that reason.

    Que sera sera.

  45. ‘There’s nothing – not.a.thing – we can do about the US Presidential election here. We cannot influence it in any way.’

    Of course not. And there I was thinking that the ABC is above click bait, being a non commercial entertainment organisation.

  47. With the Labor decision today on asylum seeker visa ban,I wonder if this will be seen as a turning point, a bookmark to end this sorry chapter.
    That’s assuming we don’t see several hundred thousand halal potatoes massing at our border.

  48. adrian @ #145 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 11:18 am

    Of course not. And there I was thinking that the ABC is above click bait, being a non commercial entertainment organisation.

    You are assuming they are trying to attract readers to themselves. They are not – their primary job these days is to funnel readers to other media – specifically, media owned by Guthrie’s former paymaster.

  49. I can’t believe how breathlessly excited the Oz media are getting about the US election. Reporting, OK; Opinion, OK. But hordes of journos to report in time delay as the daylight inches across the continent? Boring.

Comments Page 3 of 48
1 2 3 4 … 48

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *