Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly result from Newspoll lands slightly at the high end of Labor’s recent form.

The Australian’s latest fortnightly Newspoll is a minor breakthrough for Labor, putting them ahead 53-47 after a series of 52-48s. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 38%, with the Coalition and Greens steady on 39% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and one on disapproval to 51%, with Bill Shorten unchanged at 36% and 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 42-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average likewise has Labor moving to a lead of 53-47, after two weeks of respite for the Coalition at 52-48. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged after rounding, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team up a point to 3%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 44%, Bill Shorten down three to 34% and up three to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 41-28 to 40-28.

The poll also ventures into American matters, with some fascinating results. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived things as being better in Australia than the United States over a range of issue areas, the biggest gap being 78% to 5% for access to health care, and the smallest being 38% to 19% for opportunities to succeed in business. Only on international influence was the US granted to be “better”, by 46% to 24%. Fifty-two per cent thought American influence to be weakening, with only 19% taking the opposite view. Hillary Clinton was favoured by 59% compared with 19% for Donald Trump, and Clinton was heavily favoured for all listed issues, with the strongest being relations with Australia (54% to 10%) and the weakest being preventing terrorist attacks in Australia (33% to 15%, with a particularly high 38% for makes no difference).

The government’s contentious new law on boat arrivals have strong support, with 56% approval and 29% disapproval. The view that the government is too tough on asylum seekers is up three points since August to 23%, while too soft is down five to 24%, but “the right approach” gains six to 37%, with don’t know down four to 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,363 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Albo has had a bit of fun shooting the fish in the IPA barrel tonight.
    Patterson just managed to get himself laughed at by the audience.

  2. Paterson says the centres on Nauru and Manus are open centres. If this is the case then why won’t the govt allow media access to them?

  3. You’d better ask for a dissolution of the House, Malcome. It’s clearly not working, with your guys seconding Labor resolutions. And nothing that gets through it will get through the Senate, so instead of waiting for the DD conditions to be met, just go for a single D and get a new House that will have far less clashes with the Senate. Logical.

  4. Yes Young Fogey totally sums up Paterson.

    It’s all there, isn’t it?

    The egghead face. The plastered-down Collins St hairdo. The cutaway collar. The IPA history. Yer classic Fogey, of the Young variety.

  5. 53-47 must surely be the beginning of the end. No wonder they brought boats back. And 18C. Forget “The People” … they’re losing their base. Has anyone fallen from grace so completely as Turnbull? Twice?

  6. Downer probably killed off her political career tonight: light weight rope-a-dope stuff. Let’s hope that even in the Liberal Party nepotism has its limits.
    Patterson handed himself to himself on a plate.
    He was one of Turnbull’s key backers…

  7. The egghead face. The plastered-down Collins St hairdo. The cutaway collar. The IPA history.

    The tie, obviously there to give the impression of authority, but messily tied and looking unkempt and out of place.

    And the haughty sneer as an attempt at indifference. These young fogeys do haughty sneer indifference really well.

  8. 150,000 militant muslims in Jakarta put a stop to Turnbull’s chance to do a bit of statesman-like hobnobbing with the visiting Widodo.

    Turnbull has shit luck and he appears to be incapable of making his own luck.

  9. Primaries suggest Coalition 2PP probably rounded down from 47-point-something.

    Just this constant incremental worsening in my aggregate so far, a small fraction of a point per week; nothing happening that accelerates, stalls or reverses it.

  10. When will we see an Ipsos poll? I know I keep asking this question but seriously. Why call yourself a pollster if you don’t actually do any polling?

  11. Labor has extended its ascendancy over the Coalition to lead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent, boosted by a rise in the opposition’s primary vote to the highest level since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister 14 months ago.

    The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals the ALP’s core support has climbed to 38 per cent, up one point in the past fortnight and 3.3 points higher than at the July 2 election.

    The Coalition’s primary vote remains below 40 per cent for the fourth consecutive Newspoll survey, and at 39 per cent is 3.1 points lower than at the election.

    The Greens are unchanged at 10 per cent, while support for other parties and independents slipped from 14 to 13 per cent.

    Based on preference flows from the election, Labor has improved its lead in two-party terms from 52-48 per cent, where it has sat for the past three surveys, to 53-47 per cent.

    The poll represents a 3.4 per cent swing against the Coalition, which if repeated in a uniform fashion at the next election would indicate defeat for the Turnbull government with the loss of 17 seats — seven in Queensland, four each in Victoria and NSW, and one seat in South Australia and Western Australia.

    The poll of 1846 people taken from last Thursday to Sunday shows virtually no change in the standing of the leaders.

    Satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance lifted one point to return to 30 per cent but dissatisfaction also climbed a point to a high of 58 per cent, leaving the Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating unchanged at minus 28 points. Mr Shorten’s figures were steady, with 36 per cent satisfied with his performance and 51 per cent dissatisfied, giving him a net satisfaction rating of minus 15 points.

    On the question of better prime minister, the rating for the two leaders was also unchanged, with Mr Turnbull remaining at his lowest level of 42 per cent while Mr Shorten was at 32 per cent. Some 26 per cent of voters were undecided

  12. Question:

    Yes we can add Reachtel and even Galaxy to this eternal question.

    Why when it was a Labor minority govt we saw a surfeit of polling, yet now when we have a coalition govt not only on the ropes in the parliament, but on the ropes with the polls we’ve actually seen, that the pollsters decide to go shy?

  13. Seems the AS bashing didn’t work, not that it looked like it would. It and 18c are all the’ve got to talk about, and both highlight Turnbull is running on empty.

  14. After watching qanda I humbly opine that what Labor need is a brutal headkicker like the role Richardson used to fill.
    As soon as that IPA babe opened her mouth, the appointed kicker should have verbally kicked her teeth in. She was a joke & IPA shills like that need to be stomped on quick & hard. The question she was answering was about how the deluded USA got to where a nut like Trump even gets a look in for President. Her response was laughable & if there was a real ALP stalewart there like Doug Cameron or Penny Wong she would have been eviserated properly.
    Someone needs to ask WHY an IPA shill gets a guernsey at every possible opportunity on the qanda & the drum.

  15. Silentmajority,
    Yes, there is a time and place for a good attack dog. Albo did well though. I loved the way the Canadian lady pinned the IPA to the wall. She kicked some heads.

  16. I thought Albo was too “nice”.
    Somebody from the Lower House needs to throw caution to the wind & brutalize every RWNJ he comes across, every time, every day. Sieze the initiative & guarantee that soundbite every night.
    Too much softly, softly dignified, measured response from the ALP & not enough junk yard dog.
    Keating got that sound bite every evening news & combined it with strength of purpose & leadership.

  17. Has anyone fallen from grace so completely as Turnbull?

    Turnbull’s fall is really still Abbott’s. He had to sell out all the principles that made him different from Abbott in order to get the job.

    The disturbing thing is that the far-right loonies won’t see it that way, and will get on with insisting that the problem is that Turnbull’s Abbott’s policies are too moderate and the solution is to drag the government even further to the right. And they’ll get their way because…I’m not sure exactly why, but it seems to be related to the fact that nobody else in their joke of a political party actually has a backbone anymore.

  18. This quote from Brandis in support of the ME plebiscite I think highlights how vacuous his argument is.

    Australians all have an “equal stake” in marriage and the political class had no greater wisdom into its definition.

    Isn’t the whole point of ME that certain groups DON’T have an “equal stake” in marriage?

  19. I think we would have to get an IPSOS and a galaxy before the end of the year.
    They would need a data point for the second half of the year.
    Of course IPSOS could be 50-50 or even better for the Libs, wasn’t peak Turnbull 55-45 ?

  20. Rex Douglas will be here tomorrow saying if only they would get rid of Shorten the 2PP would be 60 to 40. Some people are hard to please

  21. Hang on.

    Nasty little IPA drone….plus someone who shares genes with Alexander Downer……vs Albo??

    Clearly a set up by the ABC to embarrass the Libs. we need a bias inquiry now.

  22. What is the program here for the Day of Festivities with the US election? Live blogging or are we all going down to the supermarket to stock up on bottled water and canned goods if Trump looks like winning?

  23. I am only an amateur but do not polling companies get out in the field when they have been commissioned, in this country chiefly by news agencies?

    It appears to be an indication that Fairfax et al are running dead on Turnbull’s polling woes.

  24. desert qlder @ #44 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:09 am

    I am only an amateur but do not polling companies get out in the field when they have been commissioned, in this country chiefly by news agencies?
    It appears to be an indication that Fairfax et al are running dead on Turnbull’s polling woes.

    It may also be a reflection of Fairfax’s financial woes. These polls cost money for the news outlets that commission them.

  25. Steven
    Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:00 am
    The IPA probably need the money re these appearances

    Well, if that’s the reason, then so do I. How do I get an appearance?

    Somebody needs to ask the ABC who decides the IPA get to show up so often & never explain who they are, who they represent & who their backers are.
    Not once has the ABC ever documented the IPA’s 100 point plan.
    And the ALP need to ask this too.

  26. Bludgers may like to know that the WA Labor campaign to win the North and North-East Metro seats is picking up momentum and the face-to-face response from voters is really very positive. I should also say the management effort and the cross-party collaboration are also quite palpable. If local connections and efforts count for anything, Labor will win this election convincingly.

    The vote-changing themes hinge around some negatives – opposition to privatization and resentment over the wasteful spending by Barnett – as well as some positives, especially on health. education and infrastructure policies.

    I reckon the desire for change is so uncontroversial as to be basically unstoppable.

  27. The IPA is present because they need 5 commentators with at least 2 conservatives, 2 and progressives . They usually do 1 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Left Wing Group (Unions, Fairfax, Guardian,e tc) , 1 Right Wing Group (IPA, Murdoch, BCA). The IPA is so common because it’s the most prestigious Right Wing Think Tank and virtually every other right winger of note in any other Think Tank is an IPA member, so that’s what they get introduced as.

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