Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly result from Newspoll lands slightly at the high end of Labor’s recent form.

The Australian’s latest fortnightly Newspoll is a minor breakthrough for Labor, putting them ahead 53-47 after a series of 52-48s. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 38%, with the Coalition and Greens steady on 39% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and one on disapproval to 51%, with Bill Shorten unchanged at 36% and 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 42-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average likewise has Labor moving to a lead of 53-47, after two weeks of respite for the Coalition at 52-48. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged after rounding, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team up a point to 3%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 44%, Bill Shorten down three to 34% and up three to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 41-28 to 40-28.

The poll also ventures into American matters, with some fascinating results. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived things as being better in Australia than the United States over a range of issue areas, the biggest gap being 78% to 5% for access to health care, and the smallest being 38% to 19% for opportunities to succeed in business. Only on international influence was the US granted to be “better”, by 46% to 24%. Fifty-two per cent thought American influence to be weakening, with only 19% taking the opposite view. Hillary Clinton was favoured by 59% compared with 19% for Donald Trump, and Clinton was heavily favoured for all listed issues, with the strongest being relations with Australia (54% to 10%) and the weakest being preventing terrorist attacks in Australia (33% to 15%, with a particularly high 38% for makes no difference).

The government’s contentious new law on boat arrivals have strong support, with 56% approval and 29% disapproval. The view that the government is too tough on asylum seekers is up three points since August to 23%, while too soft is down five to 24%, but “the right approach” gains six to 37%, with don’t know down four to 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,363 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. C@t:

    The ABC has been even more accommodating of ignorant rightwing views since the coalition was elected to govt. That says it all for me: Stockholm Syndrome.

  2. Davidwh, while i think i hate you for getting a nomad thing going can I make one suggestion for something to pack?

    An eight inch F5 / F6 telescope, 3-4 eyepieces, and some basic starcharts / tablet.
    A simple dobsonian reflector that’s easy to collimate after a days drive. doesn’t actually take up much room. Make sure its at least 8 inch diameter though. Much better light bucket. ๐Ÿ™‚

    I well remember heading across the Gulf in the NT back on a trip around OZ in 2000.

    Leichhardt Falls, no moon at night, 500km from any light pollution. So many stars it was actually hard to pick out the constellations. Be careful…can be addictive…..but i rarely now do a bush trip without one.

  3. Imacca and Davidwh
    I can only support your plans for outback stargazing. A telescope would be great but even a decent set of binoculars or a good camera telephoto lens can give a fabulous view. Many years ago i had several work trips in the far north and got a few chances to look at stars on clear nights with some good work binoculars. The number of stars visble in the lens was amazing. The memory is enough to take my mind off that orange clown.

  4. Imacca that about the best thing anyone can hate me for.
    I do have a similar telescope and it will find a place in the camper ๐Ÿ™‚

  5. I do have a similar telescope and it will find a place in the camper ๐Ÿ™‚

    Sounds like the kind of extended trip you can well chill on. Good luck. ๐Ÿ™‚

  6. MCDEMVerified account โ€@NZcivildefence 9m9 minutes ago
    situation has changed – tsunami is possible. People near the coast in the south island should move to high ground or inlande #eqnz

  7. Davidwh,
    If you come through Adelaide, the SA Chapter will shout you a drink. We know sone good places for a knees up.

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