Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly result from Newspoll lands slightly at the high end of Labor’s recent form.

The Australian’s latest fortnightly Newspoll is a minor breakthrough for Labor, putting them ahead 53-47 after a series of 52-48s. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 38%, with the Coalition and Greens steady on 39% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and one on disapproval to 51%, with Bill Shorten unchanged at 36% and 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 42-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average likewise has Labor moving to a lead of 53-47, after two weeks of respite for the Coalition at 52-48. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged after rounding, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team up a point to 3%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 44%, Bill Shorten down three to 34% and up three to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 41-28 to 40-28.

The poll also ventures into American matters, with some fascinating results. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived things as being better in Australia than the United States over a range of issue areas, the biggest gap being 78% to 5% for access to health care, and the smallest being 38% to 19% for opportunities to succeed in business. Only on international influence was the US granted to be “better”, by 46% to 24%. Fifty-two per cent thought American influence to be weakening, with only 19% taking the opposite view. Hillary Clinton was favoured by 59% compared with 19% for Donald Trump, and Clinton was heavily favoured for all listed issues, with the strongest being relations with Australia (54% to 10%) and the weakest being preventing terrorist attacks in Australia (33% to 15%, with a particularly high 38% for makes no difference).

The government’s contentious new law on boat arrivals have strong support, with 56% approval and 29% disapproval. The view that the government is too tough on asylum seekers is up three points since August to 23%, while too soft is down five to 24%, but “the right approach” gains six to 37%, with don’t know down four to 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,363 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. But Hacker was amusing. Mal never is.

    And while Hacker was weak and venal, you could at least come away thinking his heart was in the right place. Mal … not so much.

  2. Davidwh:
    When you’re heading over to Margs let me know if you pass through Albany and I’ll advise you on places to see

    Have fun Davidwh. I can beat Fess to recommend at least one spot. 🙂

    Its a serious MUST do. Fitzgerald river Nat Pk is pretty good (further east) especially when the Southern Rights are calving.

  3. Sky News Australia
    6h6 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp says he hopes @realDonaldTrump’s election will not scuttle the refugee resettlement deal #auspol



    Sky News Australia
    6h6 hours ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp: Labor gives in-principle support to @TurnbullMalcolm’s asylum seeker resettlement

  4. That business of Dutton and Morrison being very hurt by the criticism makes me think that each has stored away in their homes a portrait done by the same guy who did Dorian Gray’s.

  5. Davidwh

    If you swing through the Top End an as yet pretty unspoiled little gem is Berry Springs. Wonderful bush setting pretty much undeveloped. Popular with the locals and CROC free……………most of the time 😉 VG Wildlife sanctuary nearby. See a genuine Drongo 🙂

  6. tpof @ #4455 Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 12:08 pm

    don @ #4425 Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 11:46 am
    Obama will not do it and I’m sure Hillary is smart enough to reject it if he did. Hillary Clinton may not have been as politically courageous as many wanted but I have no doubt she is personally courageous. With a career seeking political office effectively over, she can embark on a new and effect career as a martyr to Republican viciousness. I don’t think she wants the role but I’m sure she’d take to it with gusto.

    Thanks TPOF, much appreciated.

  7. Very funny watching on the news how excited everybody in Orange is about becoming a marginal seat. The ambition of every Australian electorate.

  8. Where were all these people when it came time to vote?

    As New York went to the democrats it is a fair chance they voted and are not amused with the rest of country

  9. Fair dinkum, if I see another ABC talking head put on the doe eyes when talking about the Asylum Seeker deal Turnbull has done with the US, as if it was an humanitarian achievement akin to Nelson Mandela coming out of jail & through the end of Apartheid to lead South Africa as it’s first Black President, then I will ring up the ABC switchboard and let out a bloody primal scream!

    The deal hasn’t even gone through the American Congress yet, and good luck with that, Mal! Not to mention. No, change that…Never mentioned are the atrocities that occurred to those people under the Coalition’s watch.

    And, yes, blah, blah, blah, Labor’s just as bad. However, they’re not. Those asylum seekers never would have been warehoused for 4 years. They’re not that incompetent.

    Anyway, good on Bill again. He played the Coalition on this. Again. Never agreeing to the Lifetime Ban for AS was the correct move. It was only ever an attempted wedgie.

    Though I fall into fits of laughter at the prospect of the story Dud Dutton will cook up to regale us with in order to try and dun Shorten’s name over this. : )

  10. Tim Wilson MP ‏@timwilsoncomau 8h8 hours ago
    Elated at Turnbull Govt #HumanRights legacy: boats stopped, no kids in detention & resettling ppl off Nauru & Manus #Outcomes #ProudLiberal

    What is the official libertarian position on asylum seekers? I’d have thought it would be embracing of those who find an economic loophole in seeking to arrive here undocumented in order to forge a new life.

  11. C@tmomma
    #4654 Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 7:44 pm
    then I will ring up the ABC switchboard and let out a bloody primal scream!
    Nah! I’ve tried the primal scream therapy KayJay style. Far better to make a Creaming Soda Spider with two pink straws and relax thinking and dreaming along with the poem

    Abou Ben Adhem
    Related Poem Content Details
    By Leigh Hunt
    Abou Ben Adhem (may his tribe increase!)
    Awoke one night from a deep dream of peace,
    And saw, within the moonlight in his room,
    Making it rich, and like a lily in bloom,
    An angel writing in a book of gold:—
    Exceeding peace had made Ben Adhem bold,
    And to the presence in the room he said,
    “What writest thou?”—The vision raised its head,
    And with a look made of all sweet accord,
    Answered, “The names of those who love the Lord.”
    “And is mine one?” said Abou. “Nay, not so,”
    Replied the angel. Abou spoke more low,
    But cheerly still; and said, “I pray thee, then,
    Write me as one that loves his fellow men.”

    The angel wrote, and vanished. The next night
    It came again with a great wakening light,
    And showed the names whom love of God had blest,
    And lo! Ben Adhem’s name led all the rest.

    And peace to you. 🙂

  12. C@t:

    I’ve been listening to ABC radio in case the cricket began play and found every news break to be as you’ve described. Very different to the days of Labor’s Malaysia Solution, even though one of the countries touted for resettlement this time around is Malaysia!

  13. We’ll hear a lot about “Labor’s detention camps” as this asylum seeker deal is discussed in coming days and week’s. It’s part of the lexicon, like “Labor’s debt’. True, the camps were reluctantly reopened by the Gillard Government under pressure from a feral opposition, who blocked a potentially viable Malaysia solution, and refused to cooperate with an expert committee. In 2011, Abbott wanted the boats to keep coming. In the closing weeks of the Labor Government, a deal was announced with PNG to beef up the detention program. The opposition tried to talk it down in the hope that it would collapse. It didn’t and the camps have been run under the aegis of a Coalition Government for over 3 years.

    The Abbott-Turnbull Government in 3 years did nothing to humanise the camps or moderate conditions. They tried to dump the unfortunates on Cambodia – a $50 million fiasco, it would be funny if it weren’t so serious. They demonised asylum seekers and blamed them for their plight. They lied shamelessly under cover of isolation, secrecy and intimidation of volunteers and those staff with a conscience.

    Indefinite detention without trial started as a fart in John Howard’s brain to get him through a difficult election in 2001. It worked, and they have been using asylum seekers as a political tool ever since. Labor allowed itself to be bullied into going along.

    Turnbull owns the camps. Abbott owns them. Dutton and Morrison own them. As does Australia. A source of shame for many now, and to all Australians in future.

  14. ‘Fess,
    The ABC talking heads and announcers don’t even blush when they spout that guff. I believe they are coached by their producers to assume the correct attitude and body language.

    Though that’s probably just me being churlish. ; )

  15. What do you do as a faintly progressive party when the odds are always stacked against you and you are judged by different standards by your opponents?

    Traditionally Labor has generally ignored this and carried on regardless, but I think it’s time to call out some examples of this journalistic double standard.

  16. Drama queen and cliche-ridden Katharine Murphy does it again.

    Bad policy isnot bad policy. It’s “abjectly indefensible”.

    A response is never wrong. It is “deeply flawed”.

    Politicians are not concerned or troubled. They are “quietly terrified”.

    Arranging for the release from distant camps is not sensible or decent. It is “an outbreak of humanity”.

    Voters are not against a policy. They are “completely appalled” with it.

    Nothing can be “unclear” without being “entirely unclear”.

    And “asylum seeker politics” is never”asylum seeker politics” and never has anything to do with Kath’s friend, Malcolm “Oh The Humanity” Turnbull. It just fell into our laps, apparently, someone stubbed their toe on it and pulled it out of the ground like an old bone. It is “Australia’s wretched asylum seeker politics”.

    When something reasoned or considered is called for, an injection of context is required, you can always rely on Kath to go completely, utterly, comprehensively and remorselessly over the top.

    Irony intended.

  17. Yes, the circle jerk in Parliament among the Coalition and assorted pusillanimous Press Gallery types over this AS deal is going to be a sight I am glad I do not have to behold.

  18. Sky News Australia
    Just now ·
    Malcolm Turnbull isn’t worried about Trump’s policy agenda: ‘We’re good friends and a strong ally.’ #Viewpoint

    Such hypocrisy given his statements about Trump in the lead up to the US elections.

  19. ‘Fess,
    I think it is a combination between the fact that the ABC seems to source it’s line-up of desk anchors and talking heads from the ranks of the Privately Educated. So they come to the job with the requisite slight air of condescension when they read the news off the teleprompter. Plus the elocution and drama lessons that they have taken on their rise through the ranks to their coveted position of talking head on Sunday between 2-6PM, just is so obvious to the casual viewer.

    So I can see the joins when they try and emote the news as well as read it. It tells you all you need to know about what the riding instructions for the story have been.

  20. bushfire bill @ #4624 Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 7:23 pm

    Where were all these people when it came time to vote?

    They were there and they probably all voted for Hillary Clinton. As Michael Moore has pointed out, Hillary Clinton actually got more votes than Trump – it just didn’t show up in the electoral college numbers. It’s really important for these people to tell themselves and tell Trump voters that they were not outnumbered.

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