Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly result from Newspoll lands slightly at the high end of Labor’s recent form.

The Australian’s latest fortnightly Newspoll is a minor breakthrough for Labor, putting them ahead 53-47 after a series of 52-48s. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 38%, with the Coalition and Greens steady on 39% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and one on disapproval to 51%, with Bill Shorten unchanged at 36% and 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 42-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average likewise has Labor moving to a lead of 53-47, after two weeks of respite for the Coalition at 52-48. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged after rounding, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team up a point to 3%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 44%, Bill Shorten down three to 34% and up three to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 41-28 to 40-28.

The poll also ventures into American matters, with some fascinating results. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived things as being better in Australia than the United States over a range of issue areas, the biggest gap being 78% to 5% for access to health care, and the smallest being 38% to 19% for opportunities to succeed in business. Only on international influence was the US granted to be “better”, by 46% to 24%. Fifty-two per cent thought American influence to be weakening, with only 19% taking the opposite view. Hillary Clinton was favoured by 59% compared with 19% for Donald Trump, and Clinton was heavily favoured for all listed issues, with the strongest being relations with Australia (54% to 10%) and the weakest being preventing terrorist attacks in Australia (33% to 15%, with a particularly high 38% for makes no difference).

The government’s contentious new law on boat arrivals have strong support, with 56% approval and 29% disapproval. The view that the government is too tough on asylum seekers is up three points since August to 23%, while too soft is down five to 24%, but “the right approach” gains six to 37%, with don’t know down four to 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,363 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Trump looking at quickest way to quit Paris climate agreement, says report

    Donald Trump is seeking quick ways of withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement in defiance of widening international backing for the plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions, Reuters has reported.

    according to Reuters, a source in the Trump transition team said the victorious Republican, who has called global warming a hoax, was considering ways to bypass a theoretical four-year procedure for leaving the accord.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/13/trump-looking-at-quickest-way-to-quit-paris-climate-agreement-says-report

  8. A better analogy for Trump may be a ‘caudillo’, a South American strong man.

    From Foreign Affairs, most likely paywalled https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2016-11-10/caudillo-washington

    ‘…At this point, we can only speculate about what is in store for the United States under a Trump administration. But much of what Trump promised during the presidential campaign—from expelling some 11 million undocumented immigrants by deploying a “deportation force” to banning Muslims from entering the United States to erecting trade barriers, “opening” libel laws, and prosecuting his presidential opponent—echoes the policies of patriarchal caudillos past, such as Argentina’s Facundo Quiroga and Rafael Leonidas Trujillo of the Dominican Republic, as well as those of their contemporary heirs, such as the late Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and his replacement, Nicolás Maduro, and Rafael Correa, the current president of Ecuador. These strongmen stood for economic nationalism and protectionism, thought nothing of viciously attacking their political opponents and the media (going as far as jailing political rivals and shutting down newspapers), and rallied the masses against the so-called establishment and other people not like them, all in the name of helping the little guy. And all of them either severely curtailed civil and political freedoms or left them in shambles.’

    Also

    ‘After all, what sets the United States apart from other countries is its constitutional traditions, respect for the rule of law, and robust civil society, all of which serve as a check against authoritarianism. But the fact that Trump’s agenda (much of it directly at odds with American democratic principles and practices) was endorsed by some 60 million Americans at the ballot box should give pause when it comes to the sturdiness of U.S. democratic institutions.’

  10. Davidwh

    Are you really going to do the Nomad thing?

    You must be needing the feeling to move for that.

    I’m a decade or so younger, I think, but the planes, trains and ferries movement wears off very quickly.

  11. After giving considerable thought to the essay question, “That WW2 was merely a continuation of WW1 – Discuss” my own in depth response is that (1) WW1 was a family feud between Queen Victoria’s various relatives in various royal families across Europe driven by envy, nationalism and phoney pride, and (2) the Germans were sore loosers and did not want to take the rap for causing WW1 – and were still driven by envy, nationalism and phoney pride.

  14. Has everyone been Nuked?

    I’ve just been washing the car. Sick of all the Spring flowering trees at my place dropping their dead bits on the ve-hicle. : )

    Thankfully no dead branches though. ; )

  16. It’s on! (Pity not wrt Magic Mike Baird):

    Orange by-election: Troy Grant facing leadership spill as Nationals tell him to ‘walk away’

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/troy-grant-would-struggle-to-stay-as-leader-after-disastrous-orange-byelection-20161112-gso33h.html

    Which gets us back to one of the main reasons the Shooters and Fishers did so well in the Orange By-election yesterday. They added the word ‘Farmers’ to their moniker. Bingo! More votes from people unafraid to identify with them now.

    Also, it’s why the Nationals are going to lose more seats to them from now on. They’ve taken any reference to the country and the people they seek to represent, out of their name.

    Though the SFF party shouldn’t forget who brung ’em to the dance in Orange. The Labor Party. Without our preferences the Nationals would have been safe, even with a big swing against them.

  17. PhoenixRed

    Trump exiting the Paris agreement immediately is a better outcome than Trump being forced to remain within it for four years since in the latter case his full focus would be on undermining it from within and quite possibly persuading others to quit.

    With the U.S. out tomorrow everyone knows where they stand and will need to find some way to solve the problem that doesn’t rely on US leadership.

  18. Why is it, that when a Coalition government is in trouble, they always refer to Labor Party strengths by way of justification for the Coalition government’s continued existence?

    Mr Piccoli said that “good government isn’t perfect government. But I’d say the fundamentals around health, education, roads and jobs are very, very good.”

  20. Lol. If Trump performs coitus interruptus on the Paris Climate agreement then China can justifiably impose punitive tariffs on America to counterbalance the tariffs that Trump wants to put on China for currency manipulation. : )

  25. Davidwh

    First trip will be to Murray and SA wine areas. If that goes well then Margaret River here we come.

    Just another pis#ed passer by 😀

  32. Dean Smith in the AFR has his takeaway from Trump’s win
    news/policy/tax/we-cant-get-trumped-on-company-tax-20161113-
    People in the rust belt voted for, guess what? Tax cuts, in particular company tax cuts.
    And of course, this makes it even more urgent the we cut company taxes here.
    I can see wh Trump won, he is all things to everyone.

  33. Davidwh:

    When you’re heading over to Margs let me know if you pass through Albany and I’ll advise you on places to see 🙂

  36. Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison have suffered says Malcolm Turnbull

    When did he say that? Did he really saya that? Who’s he comparing them with???

  37. CTar1,
    Are you any good on double spoke AMG mags?

    Only if I get a ride in the roadster they are attached to after I finish with them! ; )

  41. Joel Fitzgibbon ‏@fitzhunter · 5h5 hours ago

    Barnaby Joyce is selling out all farmers who rely on backpackers to fund his APVMA pork barrel in his own electorate #auspol #backpackertax

  42. Ah, found it.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has used the striking of a refugee resettlement deal with the United States as an opportunity to heap praise on Immigration Minister Peter Dutton and his predecessor in the portfolio, Treasurer Scott Morrison, who he says have been unfairly maligned.

    The two men, the main standard-bearers of the Coalition government’s hardline border policies since 2013, “have suffered from constant, often vicious attacks, claims that they lack compassion, that they lack heart,” the Prime Minister said.

    Announcing the “one-off” deal with the Obama administration, Mr Turnbull said the “ability to ensure that compassion is available is only there because of the strength of character of Peter Dutton, his predecessor Scott Morrison and the remarkable men and women that Peter leads”.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/amid-breakthrough-deal-malcolm-turnbull-defends-peter-dutton-and-scott-morrison-20161113-gso671.html

  44. Lizzie:

    Ah, I see. Dutton and Morrison have suffered humiliation at their inability to ensure that AS detained in Australian facilities were at least treated humanely under their watch as minister.

  45. Turnbull is certainly over-egging this refugee thing with constant references to Labor. The coalition had a whole term in govt to do something about it but couldn’t. Even the attempt they made to resettle people in other countries ended up nothing but a hugely expensive white elephant that resulted in what, 1 person being resettled?

  46. Fess

    Turnbull was sounding very churchillian as he made the announcement. Sounded as if he were going into battle and deploying troops.

  47. Poor people.

    On Sunday afternoon, the Rural Fire Service renewed a warning to residents in Londonderry, Llandilo and Berkshire Park that it was too late to leave and to take shelter in their homes.

    At the same time the Weather Bureau is apologising to Victoria that the cool weather is not over yet. For me, summer can hold off as long as it likes.

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