Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly result from Newspoll lands slightly at the high end of Labor’s recent form.

The Australian’s latest fortnightly Newspoll is a minor breakthrough for Labor, putting them ahead 53-47 after a series of 52-48s. Labor is up one on the primary vote to 38%, with the Coalition and Greens steady on 39% and 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and one on disapproval to 51%, with Bill Shorten unchanged at 36% and 51%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 42-32. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1846.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average likewise has Labor moving to a lead of 53-47, after two weeks of respite for the Coalition at 52-48. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged after rounding, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10%, One Nation on 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team up a point to 3%. Monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull down two on approval to 36% and up three on disapproval to 44%, Bill Shorten down three to 34% and up three to 43%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 41-28 to 40-28.

The poll also ventures into American matters, with some fascinating results. Respondents overwhelmingly perceived things as being better in Australia than the United States over a range of issue areas, the biggest gap being 78% to 5% for access to health care, and the smallest being 38% to 19% for opportunities to succeed in business. Only on international influence was the US granted to be “better”, by 46% to 24%. Fifty-two per cent thought American influence to be weakening, with only 19% taking the opposite view. Hillary Clinton was favoured by 59% compared with 19% for Donald Trump, and Clinton was heavily favoured for all listed issues, with the strongest being relations with Australia (54% to 10%) and the weakest being preventing terrorist attacks in Australia (33% to 15%, with a particularly high 38% for makes no difference).

The government’s contentious new law on boat arrivals have strong support, with 56% approval and 29% disapproval. The view that the government is too tough on asylum seekers is up three points since August to 23%, while too soft is down five to 24%, but “the right approach” gains six to 37%, with don’t know down four to 15%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,363 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie,
    Obama was the first US election I ever followed. I learned a lot about US politics watching VEEP. Now, that is a funny show, and I reckon closer to reality than satire.

  4. puff, the magic dragon. @ #150 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 11:25 am

    kayjay,
    Please keep posting. I love your comments.

    A jolly day to you my fine feathered Dragon. You know that nearly all my stuff is just to amuse myself because the MSM and in particular free to air TV is like a fairy land of baubles bangles and beads. A la:-
    Baubles, bangles, hear how they jing, jinga-linga
    Baubles, bangles, bright shiny beads
    Sparkles, spangles, your heart will sing, singa-linga
    Wearin’ baubles, bangles and beads.
    Paying too much attention to the supposed serious stuff is probably a good way to feed one’s depressive thoughts. The regimental dog pays no attention to the Internet, TV or me and seems to get along OK although she occasionally has to gee me up for fresh water.
    too-da-loo 😉

  5. Just saw a piece of Dutton’s “weird” speech.
    Could he possibly, in his wildest dreams, imagine that he’s the new Wit of the HR?

    🙂

  8. michaelkoziol: Shorten: “We are on a unity ticket with the government to stop the people smugglers, but we are not on a unity ticket to stop the tourists.”

  13. https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/11/08/essential-voters-back-blocking-asylum-seekers/

    Nov 8, 2016
    Essential: voters back blocking asylum seekers
    Voters support the government’s bill to prevent refugees from ever obtaining a visa to Australia, today’s Essential Report shows, while a substantial chunk of Australian men would vote for Donald Trump.
    Bernard Keane — Politics Editor

    Voters back the government’s plan to permanently ban any asylum seeker since 2013 from ever entering Australia, while the number of voters who want still tougher action against refugees is falling, this week’s Essential Report suggests.

    A majority of voters (56%) back the government’s plan — to be opposed by Labor — that would ensure no one who arrived by boat and claimed asylum since 2013 (when then-prime minister Kevin Rudd said no one who did so would ever be resettled in Australia) would ever be given a visa of any kind to enter Australia. Even Labor voters back the government’s proposed legislation, 52% to 38%, while Greens voters are the only group to oppose it, 57%-24%.

    The number of voters who think the government is “too soft” on asylum seekers has also fallen since August: 24% compared to 29% three months ago; the number of voters who think the government’s approach is “about right” has increased from 31% to 37%. Only 23% believe the government is “too tough” on asylum seekers, compared to 21% in August.

    ………………….

    The Coalition’s primary vote remains on 38% and Labor’s is steady on 37%, as is the Greens’ vote on 10%. NXT is up a point to 3%, One Nation is on 6% and others on 6%, for a two-party preferred outcome of 53%-47% to Labor.

  16. ALeighMP: The Labor caucus unanimously resolved today to oppose Pauline Hanson’s – I mean Malcolm Turnbull’s – lifetime ban on refugees. #auspol

  17. Guytaur,
    I was slightly disturbed that it took a Canadian to raise the issue of the IPA and its climate agenda. It’s always felt like one of those things that nobody was allowed to mention, along with NBN whenever Turnbull was on qanda.

  18. Bonza

    It just shows that sometimes an outsider can break through having not been subjected to the narrative in the country. So what has become accepted as not to be challenged is looked at afresh.

  20. While the caucus decision AS policy will likely get the most coverage today, it is the backpacker tax that has interested me.

    This is a superb wedge by Labor that hits right in traditional Liberal heartland. In the NT, there is ongoing consternation amongst agricultural and tourism sectors and the campaign against the backpacker tax has been furious.

    I see it as another terrific judgement by the Labor team.

  21. “We are on a unity ticket with the government to stop the people smugglers, but we are not on a unity ticket to stop the tourists.”

    Brilliant line!

  23. Arian

    Yes Labor finally is on the front foot on the AS issue. Great to see them exploiting it to show up the racism of the LNP on this policy.

  25. That was an interesting press conference. I kept waiting for Shorten to point out that Labor was not in government when he was pressed on questions such as why Labor is changing its superannuation policy from the one it took to the election.

    Shorten never took that tack. I can only assume that Shorten was keen to stay on message. He has started to treat questions from the press gallery, especially those from News Ltd lackeys, with the same contempt that the Coalition has done for years – answering questions with what he wants to say, not what they want him to say – even to the extent of answering quite different questions to the ones they asked. He can’t stop them presenting the Coalition’s talking points in what, laughingly, is called ‘analysis’, but he can avoid providing them with fodder to give their puff pieces more substance than they deserve.

    All in all, a very good press conference from Shorten.

  26. Sohar
    “Despite the bad polls, Turnbull is safe by virtue of the close parliament. If the Libs remove Turnbull, he will resign from parliament and cause a by-election they would probably lose ”

    The Libs lose Wentworth? I wouldn’t have thought there’d be much chance of that.

  27. ‘It just shows that sometimes an outsider can break through having not been subjected to the narrative in the country. So what has become accepted as not to be challenged is looked at afresh.’

    Yes, and it also helps that Klein is one of the most articulate and media savvy progressive voices out there at the moment.

  28. lizzie

    Thats the result of not challenging the government. The expectation from most voters on AS up until now. I expect that to change as Labor makes the cogent argument. QandA was a good example going from audience reaction. I include twitter response in that not just the audience at the show.

  29. AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious · 36m36 minutes ago

    The stupidity of the coalition policy is people smugglers will be allowed to obtain a visa, but genuine refugees will not #auspol

    Really?

  30. lizzie @ #174 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    Guytaur
    But according to Essential, Labor is out of step with majority of voters. 🙁

    At this point in the election cycle it does not hurt Labor. Obviously, too many people are falling for Dutton’s sleazy trick of confusing a permanent residence ban with a permanent visiting ban. But, at the moment, the government is fighting the consequences of its own incompetence on so many fronts that this issue will be long buried by subsequent screw ups by the time the next election comes around.

    On a related point, if the Government does have the cross-bench numbers to get through its ludicrous ban this is not a bad thing. Being able to visit Australia one day in the distant future is far from the top of the agenda of current detainees who are just desperate for permanent settlement in a reasonably stable and free place. One day this stupid ban will be turned around quietly under a Labor government (or even a future Coalition government). In the meantime, if these supposed third country resettlement agreements don’t eventuate they can’t blame Labor for undermining the Government’s plans.

  31. lizzie @ #179 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    AshGhebranious ‏@AshGhebranious · 36m36 minutes ago
    The stupidity of the coalition policy is people smugglers will be allowed to obtain a visa, but genuine refugees will not #auspol

    Really?

    Well, if they fall within the group of people who are subject to permanent bans, they can apply for and obtain visas subject to the same rules as everyone else.

  32. adrian @ #177 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    ‘It just shows that sometimes an outsider can break through having not been subjected to the narrative in the country. So what has become accepted as not to be challenged is looked at afresh.’
    Yes, and it also helps that Klein is one of the most articulate and media savvy progressive voices out there at the moment.

    She’s the only person on the left who has no problems in talking over Tony ‘look at me’ Jones.

  33. Lizzie, the public also agreed with the plebiscite on SSM until Labor opposed it. I expect them to prosecute their argument well again.

  34. kakuru @ #176 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:14 pm

    Sohar
    “Despite the bad polls, Turnbull is safe by virtue of the close parliament. If the Libs remove Turnbull, he will resign from parliament and cause a by-election they would probably lose ”
    The Libs lose Wentworth? I wouldn’t have thought there’d be much chance of that.

    He’s more likely to stay and to split the Liberal party in spite. His enemies in the party are right that he has no intrinsic commitment to the party itself.

  36. …You are a jewel in the crown that is PB, KayJay!

    Does PB have a Crown? Maybe. Or maybe it’s a republic. If there’s a crown, I suppose William would take it out and put it on from time to time.

  40. Don’t assume the government has the numbers to get the asylum seeker visa ban through the senate, remember it was Dutton that claimed this.
    Xenophon may not be on board.

  41. I think the long term effects of the likes of Senator Bernadi backing Trump are going to be interesting. Its already diluting the power of the right wing view within the body politic of Australia as Trump Hanson and the LNP common values are exposed.

    This is influencing the Canberra Press Gallery even if they will never admit it. Its plain the push to the right has gone too far. Voters want to be centrist this is why we are seeing the polling fall for the LNP.

    Its that simple.

    _____________________________
    Now Sen Penny Wong at National Press Club.

  43. mrpetermunro: @2GB873 Alan Jones announces indefinite leave from Nov 21 for major back surgery. “They will be slicing & dicing me. I plan to be back.”

  44. ‘She’s the only person on the left who has no problems in talking over Tony ‘look at me’ Jones.’

    Most of them are just too frustratingly polite when confronted with the likes of Jones.

  46. adrian @ #194 Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:35 pm

    ‘She’s the only person on the left who has no problems in talking over Tony ‘look at me’ Jones.’
    Most of them are just too frustratingly polite when confronted with the likes of Jones.

    Exactly. And she was not too polite to call out the IPA for what it really is, either. I found her a lot more impressive than most of the overseas blow-ins they feature on QandA.

  47. “Only 23% believe the government is “too tough” on asylum seekers, compared to 21% in August”: what a loathsome country this has become.

  50. Hats off to the poster who suggested yesterday that Shorten should suggest that 18c is a second rate issue and will not produce jobs and growth etc (WTTE). I just saw him do so at a press conference.

    (Do you think his advisors read this blog for ideas to use?)

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