Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change from Essential Research, as a new Roy Morgan poll finds Malcolm Turnbull losing his position as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop.

Our only new poll of national voting intention for the week is a stable reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 38% (steady), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 2% (down one). Other questions find 49% continuing to approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, down from 58% at the time that it happened in September last year, with disapproval up from 24% to 29%; 6% thinking Australia’s gun laws too strong, 44% not strong enough and 45% about right; 44% in favour of phasing out live exports, with 29% opposed; and 55% supporting taxpayer-funded paid parental leave being curtailed for those with access to employer-sponsored schemes, with 32% opposed. Questions on the attributes of the two presidential candidates evince extraordinary hostility to Donald Trump, even to the extent of being deemed intelligent by 30% and not intelligent by 56% – the only net negative result on this question I’ve ever seen for a political leader. Hillary Clinton rates low for honesty and trustworthiness, but otherwise scores extremely well.

We also have one of Roy Morgan’s occasional phone poll results on leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull down twelve on approval since May to 31, and up eight on disapproval to 53%; Bill Shorten respectively down three to 31% and steady on 49%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 57-24 to 47-32. Most strikingly, Turnbull has lost his lead as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop, with the two respectively down from 41% to 25% and up from 24% to 34%, while Tony Abbott’s rating has doubled to 14%. Bill Shorten is steady as preferred Labor leader on 14%, with his deficit widening relative to Tanya Plibersek (up three points to 25%) and Anthony Albanese (up four to 24%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 552.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 20
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  3. From the ‘any port in a storm’ file:

    Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Wednesday, the same advantage the Democratic presidential nominee held before an FBI announcement that reignited the controversy about her email practices.

    The Oct. 28-Nov. 1 opinion poll was conducted almost entirely after FBI Director James Comey notified Congress last Friday his agency would examine newly discovered emails that might pertain to Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/clinton-leads-trump-by-6-points-same-as-before-fbi-announcement-reutersipsos/

    I think the Democrats will take it to the bank.

  7. Jen – ** This is getting scary **
    One day they will have to take the U out of USA.

    Below is a link to a hilarious but troubling email trail of a conversation between David Thorne and a ‘redneck’. Thorne is famous for his acerbic humour but he clearly has no time for rednecks (esp ones who call him a foggot) and he really lets loose. Its a long read but entertaining.
    http://www.27bslash6.com/foggot.html

  10. This morning Bill Shorten had an interview with John Laws:

    http://2smsupernetwork.com/wp/wp-content/plugins/mp3-jplayer/popout.php

    As to the Savva article, it reminds me of those footy fans always blaming everyone for the failure of their team. “If only the ref didn’t miss that forward pass, the bounce of the ball didn’t go our way etcetera, etcetera”.

    Painting Shorten as a bearer of good fortune seems to be the next evolution in the Turnbull media boosters. What else could possibly explain the state of the polls? Certainly never the incompetence of their lovechild.

  13. tpof @ #752 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    cupidstunt @ #750 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 1:27 pm

    “This is a very very tough time referring to Hazlewood” says Turnbull today. What happened to his “There is never been a more exciting time to be an Australian” rhetoric.

    Well, there’s never been a more exciting time to be a lump of brown coal.

    Why is Turnbull having a go at Hazelwood?
    He just got Amla for duck.
    SA 2 for FA.

  17. Record low Arctic sea-ice extent for this time of the year. As usual, this sort of stuff is plastered all over the front pages of the MSM and is the leading topic on all radio and TV news shows.
    After all, global warming is going to affect more people more than any other single thing that is happening globally, ATM.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

  19. Bemused and Simon

    I write as much for my OWN benefit as anyone elses – it helps ME analyse and think

    Feel free to skip by – I am sure a 10 second sound bit is more to your taste.

    However I do NOT think complex issues are well addressed in 10 second sound bites. If I wanted that I would join others on twitter. May be where some of you are better placed.

  20. Good afternoon all,

    Well, it looks like next week is going to be all about ” wedging ” Shorten and labor on AS now that the IR ” fire in the belly” attacks may not eventuate.

    Nikkei Savva and others keep going on about how smart Turnbull is with his AS wedge and how, if labor rejects the legislation, Turnbull will spend the next two years hitting labor around the head with it.

    If labor does reject the legislation and ,despite the huffing and puffing from Turnbull and co, the status quo remains the same with no flood of boats I fail see how this will hurt labor.

    If the government is in negotiation with their countries to take the AS on Nauru and Manus I do not think it would be those countries that are demanding no AS would be allowed to return to Australia in 10 years time for a holiday. That would be all down to Dutton.

    So, I think there will be no change to the current stable situation re boats if labor does vote against the legislation and such a rejection would not be a deal breaker for third countries.

    No real disadvantage for labor but downside for Turnbull in my view.

    However, I believe Shorten and his team have this all under control and whatever decision is made will be the right one for the times.

    Cheers.

  21. Boerwar

    After all, global warming is going to affect more people more than any other single thing that is happening globally, ATM.

    That’s just it, when it does, the ongoing disaster will generate more news for them to report.

  24. Elaugaufein
    “Day isn’t legally insolvent until legally declared so even if factually so.

    Companies can be legally insolvent without a formal declaration because trading while knowing you can’t pay and planning to stiff your creditors via bankruptcy is illegal in itself for reasons that should be obvious.”
    All true, but in an era when corporate regulators are so resource poor bankrupt companies rarely get adequately checked until they go belly up. I didn’t say Day was legally insolvent. He has admitted himself he could not pay his debts, so in terms of commonly understood meanings, he is insolvent, and has been for a while. Given that he took large amounts of money out of the company for his personal political crusade, I think it valid to at least ask whether he has met his legal duties as a director.

  30. Yuk!
    I opened a tweet from Bernardi to Wong (insulting, of course) and discovered a thread of low-life. If that’s the tone of his followers, I’m disgusted. I thought he was an upright Christian citizen.

  31. boerwar @ #773 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    Is what Culleton doing attempting to blackmail the AG?

    That’s what I assumed, although when you blackmail someone the point is not to shout it as loud as possible to everyone is it. Given he was previously thinking of not voting for it, you’d have to assume that he was proposing to change in order to stay.
    The only fault in my logic is assuming what this guy thinks, not sure he knows what he thinks after his little talk yesterday

  33. I’m pretty sure that if the High Court has to decide whether someone is insolvent they will not have recourse to any subsidiary legislation defining bankruptcy remedies etc.

    The only question will be whether the person or company is actually unable to pay their debts as they fall due. I would expect Day’s public statements to this effect would be taken in to evidence.

  34. **Happiest news I have seen since Bob Day’s resignation.**
    Depends on which resignation. Bangladesh beat England on Friday. That beats the resignation anyway.

  36. Doyley

    Nikkei Savva and others keep going on about how smart Turnbull is with his AS wedge and how, if labor rejects the legislation, Turnbull will spend the next two years hitting labor around the head with it.

    I’ve been following this situation for a long time. I’m very aware of how much damage this issue has done Labor and will continue to do Labor no matter what position it takes. However, there is no popular issue where overreach badly handled cannot rebound. And I think this is the one. The only people defending this new proposal, other than the CPG bods who’ve bought the bullshit about enabling third country settlement, are the rusted on Coalition supporters and those who think that anything goes if it results in damaging Labor.

    Shorten is doing exactly what he has done with every other wedge issue where Labor has no official policy position and where the Coalition has put out a generalised position and demanded that Labor sign up to it sight unseen (and the far left has demanded it be rejected sight unseen). He has let Labor members voice their own opinions, indicated a broad view, subject to seeing the detail, and waited for the Coalition to put up the further detail. The CPG should be demanding detail from the Government but, of course, spend much more effort demanding that Shorten lock himself in.

    In the end, it is the Coalition always that screws itself up. And it does so because, unlike Shorten and Labor, they have not done detailed policy development. Because there is no detailed policy to do when all there is is a cleverdick political trick.

  38. TPOF

    However, there is no popular issue where overreach badly handled cannot rebound. And I think this is the one.

    I’m hoping the same.

  40. TPOF – To quote Kevin Kostner in Bull Durham (greatest sports movie ever made, by the way): Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose … and sometimes it rains.

  41. Doyley,

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Shorten isn’t playing the same, “well we’ll wait to see the legislation” game he played on the Omnibus bill (finding the $100mil maths stuff up and forcing Turnbull to accept his nominated changes without complaint), and the SSM Bill (making it clear it was stupid, and waiting for the public opinion to follow before formally confirming it was a dead duck).

    He’s put the stupidity on the record, and also noted there’s no legislation to consider. I’m sure he’ll be perfectly happy for it to hang around because it is a dumb idea, and as you say no potential 3rd country hosts would be demanding it so it’s no barrier to resettlement of those on Manus and Nauru.

    If the gubbies come up with a proper resettlement proposal and this is just part of it then Labor will pass it to get people off the islands (and probably quietly drop it after a suitably long time once in government). But if there isn’t a solid resettlement agreement Labor will just let them stew. Manus and Nauru are now net negatives for the Coalition that the boats have stopped for 3 years.

  42. RATSAK – I suspect that the govt is going to find the asylum seekers a third-world hell-hole they won’t want to go to. When they don’t, they’ll blame labor for “holding out hope”. I don’t think it will work by the way.

  43. Correct me if I’m wrong, but half of 76 is 38, and 38 votes is determined in the negative, so to actually pass legislation the Government needs 39 votes, meaning they needed 9 of the 11 crossbenchers.

    Half of 75 is 37.5 which means the Government needs 38 votes to pass in the affirrmative, assuming that Day’s seat is treated neutrally. If they need 38 votes, they need 8 of 10 crossbenchers, so the Coalition are essentially in the same position as they were before, except that it is easier for Labor to get to a blocking majority with 38. Assuming the Greens are on board with what Labor wants to block, then they only require 3 more votes to block.

    If Culleton is disqualified, then a majority is still 38, as half of 74 is 37 meaning to pass legislation in the affirmative the Government requires 38 votes. This would mean the Government would need 8 of 9 crossbenchers. Labor together with the Greens would only need two votes to block legislation.

  44. daretotread @ #769 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 2:18 pm

    Bemused and Simon
    I write as much for my OWN benefit as anyone elses – it helps ME analyse and think
    Feel free to skip by – I am sure a 10 second sound bit is more to your taste.
    However I do NOT think complex issues are well addressed in 10 second sound bites. If I wanted that I would join others on twitter. May be where some of you are better placed.

    Spare us your drafts.
    Do them offline and then provide a one paragraph synopsis.
    Your writing just comes across as so much galimatias.

    Love that word ‘galimatias’ just learnt it – the word of the day on dictionary.com. 😀

  48. simon katich @ #757 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    Jen – ** This is getting scary **
    One day they will have to take the U out of USA.
    Below is a link to a hilarious but troubling email trail of a conversation between David Thorne and a ‘redneck’. Thorne is famous for his acerbic humour but he clearly has no time for rednecks (esp ones who call him a foggot) and he really lets loose. Its a long read but entertaining.
    http://www.27bslash6.com/foggot.html

    Thank you. Best laugh in ages.

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