Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change from Essential Research, as a new Roy Morgan poll finds Malcolm Turnbull losing his position as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop.

Our only new poll of national voting intention for the week is a stable reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 38% (steady), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 2% (down one). Other questions find 49% continuing to approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, down from 58% at the time that it happened in September last year, with disapproval up from 24% to 29%; 6% thinking Australia’s gun laws too strong, 44% not strong enough and 45% about right; 44% in favour of phasing out live exports, with 29% opposed; and 55% supporting taxpayer-funded paid parental leave being curtailed for those with access to employer-sponsored schemes, with 32% opposed. Questions on the attributes of the two presidential candidates evince extraordinary hostility to Donald Trump, even to the extent of being deemed intelligent by 30% and not intelligent by 56% – the only net negative result on this question I’ve ever seen for a political leader. Hillary Clinton rates low for honesty and trustworthiness, but otherwise scores extremely well.

We also have one of Roy Morgan’s occasional phone poll results on leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull down twelve on approval since May to 31, and up eight on disapproval to 53%; Bill Shorten respectively down three to 31% and steady on 49%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 57-24 to 47-32. Most strikingly, Turnbull has lost his lead as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop, with the two respectively down from 41% to 25% and up from 24% to 34%, while Tony Abbott’s rating has doubled to 14%. Bill Shorten is steady as preferred Labor leader on 14%, with his deficit widening relative to Tanya Plibersek (up three points to 25%) and Anthony Albanese (up four to 24%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 552.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Cupidstunt
    Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 4:01 pm
    Wonder how many of them Carlingford nut jobs are immigrants themselves or have family that are immigrants?]

    Obviously there are good immigrants (those who join the RW of the Liberals) and bad immigrants (those who care about the less fortunate).

  2. Elaugaufein
    Who gets to say what job they choose in the Ministry ?
    Abbott is what he always does. He is a wrecker even wanting to nominate what Ministry he wants.
    He is a narcissist and wants to wreck the joint.

  3. Abbott used to call Gillard/Rudd worse than shit for their spat and now he and Turnbull are virtually the same. Karma is wonderful.

  4. Isn’t it amusing (?) how the journos now openly write of Rudd’s continuous white-anting, while at the time they merely parroted all the criticisms he fed to them.

  5. MTBW:

    You declared on several occasions that as a former PM Rudd was entitled to request a ministry. In fact if truth be told you went further than declaring he had the right to request, he had the right to expect.

  6. He’s got the only power you need in politics, the numbers to bring down a government. The question is if he’s willing to risk potential 6 or more years on political exile on a threat to get a(n obvious) seat at the table (he’s already got one through sockpuppets like Dutton and ideological allies like Joyce).

  7. Lizzie:

    Yes, hilarious. Hindsight is 20/20 but these ‘insiders’ can’t see the forest for the trees while it’s actually going down.

  8. Frank Keany ‏@FJKeany · 15m15 minutes ago

    Breaking – Senate President says ‘difficult constitutional questions’ have been raised about Bob Day’s Senate spot @abcnews


  9. Citizen
    Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 5:03 pm
    Ch 10 news headline: Abbott delivers Turnbull a blunt ultimatum – put him back in Cabinet or else.

    WOW. Them’s fighting words. If true they will pretty much guarantee there’s not a snow flake’s chance in hell Turnbull will bring him into the ministry.

  10. Abbott’s friend McGregor says that she would be surprised if Abbott left parliament before Turnbull. She likens him to Beazley (which I’m sure caused Beazley to choke on his coffee this morning) in that she classes only those two as legitimate political careerists doing it for love more than anything.

    Doesn’t it just bring tears to your eyes reading of Abbott’s personal commitment and dedication to Australian democracy. Only News Ltd would publish such nonsense as serious commentary.

  11. MTBW:

    You have a very interesting recollection of the events of 2010, although I’m not surprised by that. You always did have a misty-eyed, rose-coloured view of what happened.

    What is surprising however, is why you’re holding Abbott to a different standard than what you held Rudd to, when essentially Abbott is in exactly the same position Rudd was in: an incompetent narcissist dumped by his own partyroom who has whiteanted the leader who replaced him, and is now apparently making demands on a return to the Cabinet.

  12. Mtbw

    And Abbott was removed by the very person who is PM!!! What is your point? Actually dont bother answering it. You never make a modicum of sense anyway

  13. Jesus, with all the enjoyment of watching Turnbull and Abbott at each other’s throats and on the brink of open warfare, surely we don’t need yet another argument over Rudd and what happened three years ago.

  14. So was Day ‘Hounded Out of Office’.
    In contrast to Gleeson whose ‘Position became untenable and had to resign ‘.
    I wonder how it will appear tomorrow in News Ltd

  15. Darn:

    Agreed. I just find it amusing that the very people who championed Rudd’s return to the ministry on the basis that he was a former PM now try to shoot Abbott’s bid down. Talk about hypocrisy.

  16. News Corp loves Day. He makes Abbott look like an economic wet. And checks all the Culture War boxes too. He’ll get the fine treatment pack. It’s to far from an election for News Corp to do the spin where they change to backing Labor to keep their Kingmaker credentials shiny.

    November 1 2016 – 5:37PM
    Senate bombshell: Family First senator Bob Day may have been invalidly elected
    Bevan Shields

    The Turnbull government’s ability to negotiate controversial legislation through the Senate has been thrown into doubt after it emerged a crucial senator may have been invalidly elected at the July 2 election.

    The bombshell news was delivered on Tuesday afternoon, hours after Family First senator Bob Day resigned in the wake of the collapse of his housing construction firm.

    Normal practice would see Family First select a replacement candidate, who would be ticked off by South Australia’s Parliament before taking their seat in Canberra by the end of the year, or early next year.

    However in an email sent to senators on Tuesday afternoon, Senate president Stephen Parry said he was “considering information which raises difficult constitutional questions relating to the composition of the Senate and I am seeking further advice”.
    “The Bob Day plot thickens, trying to decipher these two statements, basic upshot, not sure if he should have been in the Senate at all”
    “Sounds like this was the matter (former) Solicitor General Justin Gleeson referred to.”
    “The ABC understands there are concerns about Mr Day’s electorate office, and to whom he was paying rent for the space.”

  18. victoria
    Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 5:30 pm
    Duh indeed. What constitutional questions might that be?

    Does the 1977 referendum question extend to a party with one senator elected with 3.8% quota might be a good start

    It is proposed to alter the Constitution to ensure as far as practicable that a casual vacancy in the Senate is filled by a person of the same political party as the Senator chosen by the people and for the balance of his term. Do you approve the proposed law?

  19. Whether family or no, I imagine that the Popowskis who risked their lives to save jews in World War Two would not be all that impressed with a Popowski whose main aim in life appears to be to stop refugees and displaced persons reaching the protection of Australia.

    Let me rewrite that for you BW:

    Whether family or no, I imagine that the Popowskis who risked their lives to save jews in World War Two would not be all that impressed with a Popowski whose main aim in life appears to be to stop any more refugees and displaced persons reaching the protection of Australia.

  20. I don’t think it’s Malcolm Turnbull who is a closet Laborite, I think it’s Tony Abbott! This stuff is a gift for Bill Shorten and Labor. : )

  21. BB
    Thank you. Correctomundo.
    For people wondering why migrants are more likely to be anti-migrant than the general population, the answer, as I know from personal experience is a mixture of stockholm syndrome and protective camouflage.
    Further, migrants are more likely than most other segments of the population to suffer economic loss if government support is attentuated by the addition of any more further migrants.
    The exception to all of the above occurs where migrants are hopeful of getting their family members into the country.

  22. lizzie – yes, as far as I know there is no way to unscramble parliamentary voting after the fact, you just kick out the ineligible MP once they’re found out.

  23. A Liberal Minister writes to a Liberal Senate President only now expressing concern that Bob Day might have been invalidly elected due to holding an office for profit under the Crown at the time of his election (?).


    So why the sudden rush to invalidate bob Day’s tenure as Senator? And to take it to the High Court, no less?

    Could it be because Family First has turned agin the government on ABCC and PPL (as reported above)?

    Or might it be because the next eligible Senator if Day is disqualified ab initio is a Lib or a Nat?

    I suppose, for form’s sake only, I’m going to have to consider that the SpecialMinister Of State is simply “doing the right thing” by his official responsibilities, but that would be a first for these numpties.

  24. The Sydney Morning Herald
    2 mins ·
    Gina Rinehart attracted almost as much attention for her exit as she did for her arrival at the Melbourne Cup, by stumbling down the stairs of the Emirates marquee just as Almandin crossed the winners post.

  25. Bushfire Bill,

    The next elected Senator would likely be Lucy Gichuhi, second on the FF ticket in South Australia. If somehow weird preference flows occur from many people giving a 1 to Bob Day then letting their preferences flow elsewhere, the ALP and One Nation might have a chance, but this is highly unlikely.

    I haven’t seen any statements from FF stating that they will flip on either ABCC or PPL, and in a recent Bob Day-related article have stated that Day’s successor will likely vote for the reintroduction of the ABCC.

  26. So if Day had been disqualified at the time of the count who would have won the seat? Does anyone know?

    I suspect that BB might be onto something. It might have been a Liberal or a Nat.

  27. Laura Jayes Verified account
    BREAKING Bob Day Senate validity is doubtful bc he or family trust owns the building where his electorate office is. That’s a breach!

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