Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change from Essential Research, as a new Roy Morgan poll finds Malcolm Turnbull losing his position as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop.

Our only new poll of national voting intention for the week is a stable reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 38% (steady), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 2% (down one). Other questions find 49% continuing to approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, down from 58% at the time that it happened in September last year, with disapproval up from 24% to 29%; 6% thinking Australia’s gun laws too strong, 44% not strong enough and 45% about right; 44% in favour of phasing out live exports, with 29% opposed; and 55% supporting taxpayer-funded paid parental leave being curtailed for those with access to employer-sponsored schemes, with 32% opposed. Questions on the attributes of the two presidential candidates evince extraordinary hostility to Donald Trump, even to the extent of being deemed intelligent by 30% and not intelligent by 56% – the only net negative result on this question I’ve ever seen for a political leader. Hillary Clinton rates low for honesty and trustworthiness, but otherwise scores extremely well.

We also have one of Roy Morgan’s occasional phone poll results on leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull down twelve on approval since May to 31, and up eight on disapproval to 53%; Bill Shorten respectively down three to 31% and steady on 49%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 57-24 to 47-32. Most strikingly, Turnbull has lost his lead as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop, with the two respectively down from 41% to 25% and up from 24% to 34%, while Tony Abbott’s rating has doubled to 14%. Bill Shorten is steady as preferred Labor leader on 14%, with his deficit widening relative to Tanya Plibersek (up three points to 25%) and Anthony Albanese (up four to 24%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 552.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. BB
    The Senate President isn’t bound to impartiality because they are a representative of a State and that would disadvantage that States interest.

    It would be a disadvantage in that case but gaming of the system in the Senate isn’t generally advantageous, since the government doesn’t usually have a majority and its pointless if the opposition does (but that hasn’t been a thing much either).

  2. BW
    No I promised to stop having a discussion with you on the previous topic. I’m more than willing to continue returning every insult you throw at me until it bores me too much to continue. You deserve nothing less.

  4. elaugaufein @ #952 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 8:53 pm

    BW
    No I promised to stop having a discussion with you on the previous topic. I’m more than willing to continue returning every insult you throw at me until it bores me too much to continue. You deserve nothing less.

    What has insulted you? I can see nothing abusive or insulting unless it is to be tagged as a Green.

  5. You don’t think that suggesting being a Green is inherently insulting is inherently insulting ? I’m sure you think you’re clever with that but common use of the English language hasn’t agreed in my entire life time.

  6. It would be a disadvantage in that case but gaming of the system in the Senate isn’t generally advantageous, since the government doesn’t usually have a majority and its pointless if the opposition does (but that hasn’t been a thing much either).

    Contrary to what Psyclaw thinks, I DO get the arithmetic of it.

    But we are also dealing with a Coalition government… known for their sneakiness, and for busting traditions and conventions when it suits them.

    At the moment we have a shambles of a Senate. It’s much more divided and chaotic than it was before. Remember that we had a Double-Delection tofixthis, and – as almost everything does when “Anti-Midas” Turnbull touches it – it’s turned to even greater shit. The folds and nuances of irony are almost too convoluted to believe, much less unfold.

    The Press Gallery are bravely trying the old “Nothing to see here. All perfectly under control. Move along now,” trick but it’s not working too well.

    Day’s resignation was not a numerical hit in itself, because an even-numbered Senate’s majority of 2 becomes an odd-numbered Senate’s majority of 1. Nor was it an advantage. Let’s call it neutral.

    But it left the door open to disaster if just one more regular supporter of government legislation left on top of Day. And now it’s happened.

    Day’s resignation took the Senate closer to the edge of the cliff for the Coalition. Cullerton’s loss may have taken them over that edge.

    Which brings me back to my original question: why are the Coalition pushing both of these absences?

  10. I think in Days case it was because if anyone went digging due to his will I or won’t I retire dance they might find this. At which point covering it up looks like corruption.

    For Cullerton it might be the same reason as he’s got a suit against his eligibility instead (and Day’s idiotic attention drawing might get some journalists digging into anyone interesting) and it may turn up in discovery or it may be because he was looking likely to go Rogue on the ABCC bills.

  11. The Senate President gets a deliberative vote. There is no capacity for a casting vote in the Senate. He/she gets a deliberative vote because to do otherwise would be to rob a state of one vote when the Senate has equal representation of the States. Similarly to give a casting vote would give a State 13 votes and not 12.

  14. Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 2:21 pm
    “However, I believe Shorten and his team have this all under control and whatever decision is made will be the right one for the times”

    Such a nice little obedient sheep.

  15. I’m betting there’s a lot in the British Parliament wishing the Court hadn’t. There’s a lot of known Remainers who are going to have to either rebel against the party or look like simps and even uf they do Rebel the media will paint them as defying the people even if their constituents voted Remain. I’m sure this will go through but it’s going to make British politics fun for a bit.

  17. What interests me about the Hazelwood Plant closure is that both the governments of Victoria and the Commonwealth, as they should be, are wringing their hands over the job losses which will occur. However, when the ‘Carbon Tax’ was kyboshed by Abbott, no one in the Commonwealth government gave two hoots about the job losses in the Renewable Energy sector.

  19. Actually, that reminds me of an interesting story 7.30 did tonight on one of the former workers in the EnergyBriq(?) factory, which had closed down in the same area.

    He had taken all the Retraining Courses that were offered to him at the time but all he had been able to come up with were odd jobs, here and there. Nothing permanent and enduring.

    I fear the same outcome may be awaiting the redundant Hazelwood workers. There just aren’t any good jobs available in that area that aren’t in the traditional industries. Not everyone can open a coffee shop with their Redundancy payout. Others don’t want to move out of the area to look for work either. Or could afford to, given the house prices closer to Melbourne or in other States, such as NSW, where there are jobs.

  22. just me @ #937 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 8:25 pm

    One of the biggest issues in scientific research today is the lack of data sharing, which seriously inhibits both the checking of existing research, exploring alternative analyses of that data, and the generation of further research. There is a massive push from within the broad research community to make data sharing a condition of passing peer-review, and I strongly support that, subject only to the data being adequately anonymised where it involves individual personal data.
    If others cannot check claims via analysis of the raw data, then science is either not possible, or vastly slower and unsafer.

    Let’s not let a little thing like the Privacy Act get in the way of research, shall we? Bloody nuisance, all this “privacy” nonsense, eh what?

  23. Interesting point I hadn’t considered:

    Family First was paid nearly $223,000 in public funding following the July 2 election. It is unclear whether the party may have to repay the money should Mr Day’s election be proven invalid.

    Family First may have to give those monies back to the Commonwealth, as well as refund to the Liquidators of the business the loans/donations Bob Day made to them.

  24. Player One

    ust me @ #937 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 8:25 pm

    One of the biggest issues in scientific research today is the lack of data sharing,

    It is not about privacy, Science peeps were and are muy keen on sharing data. It is the !@!@#$##! scumbag money men that have fucked it all up. They made it all about Intellectual property (IP) . They have forced science peeps to go against what was the norm. The norm being share data .

  25. poroti @ #974 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    Player One

    ust me @ #937 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 8:25 pm
    One of the biggest issues in scientific research today is the lack of data sharing,

    It is not about privacy, Science peeps were and are muy keen on sharing data. It is the !@!@#$##! scumbag money men that have fucked it all up. They made it all about Intellectual property (IP) . They have forced science peeps to go against what was the norm. The norm being share data .

    Like dracula from the crypt, the census crank keeps re-emerging.

  26. poroti @ #974 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 10:35 pm

    Player One
    It is not about privacy, Science peeps were and are muy keen on sharing data. It is the !@!@#$##! scumbag money men that have fucked it all up. They made it all about Intellectual property (IP) . They have forced science peeps to go against what was the norm. The norm being share data .

    The Productivity Commission proposal would permit – nay, require – the sharing of any personal data you use if you want funding for your research project. Just Me thinks this is ok if the data is de-identified, but it would not need to be de-identified if it is being shared with “trusted” parties … which includes all of government, academia and business.

    That’s right – just about everyone can get to see your personal data if it is used in a research project!

    Now tell me again how this is not about privacy?

  28. Sharing Personal and Research data aren’t the same thing. Research ethics on sharing anything that might even vaguely quality as personal data is far stricter than the Privacy act. You can’t even share peoples collated opinions via abstract models like Neural Nets without getting ethics clearance.

    Research data sharing is about sharing the data and programs your papers are based on and is a very good thing.

    Sharing Personal data without permission is still a bad thing, the wilful ignorance of the potential problems with doing so on PB, aside.

  29. FF should largely be okay on funding even with Day disqualified.

    Electoral funding is per 1st Preference vote , if you got over 4% of the vote. Day did get some below the line votes but it shouldn’t be enough to make a significant difference.

  30. Bernard Keane
    12h12 hours ago
    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    Anyone else getting the smell of the last year of Whitlam about this government?

  35. Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo
    My Mum would translate that advice as don’t let the door hit your bum on the way out, but interpretation is flexible with these guys.

    1

    6

    Katharine Murphy
    16m16 minutes ago
    Katharine Murphy ‏@murpharoo
    Pauline Hanson tells Rod Culleton to ‘make informed decision on his future’ https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/03/pauline-hanson-tells-senator-rod-culleton-to-make-informed-decision-on-his-future?CMP=share_btn_tw …

  36. Speaking of the Government, what ever happened to that small business tax plan that was so important? Is that still a thing?

    Also, Jobson Growthe seems to have gone missing…

  37. Poriti
    It basically comes down to Ethics Committees being obsessive about safe guarding the good reputation of the University. You won’t get ethics clearance for anything that even looks mildly dodgy. If you’re sharing anything that is even arguably like personal data ( even to the extent of personal opinions), you’ll need to get explicit permission from everyone involved. There might be some exceptions if you could demonstrate that would harm the study but you’d almost certainly still have to get explicit permission after the study but before publication.

  38. Where research involves data that could potentially identify an individual human participant, it is standard to require participants to approve any data sharing in advance via consent forms, and for the data to be adequately anonymised (a very strict requirement indeed in current practice, as anybody who has had to get approval from an ethics committee will know). Participants are also under no obligation to sign the form, or even participate at all in the first place, and they can withdraw from the study anytime they want (including having their data deleted).

    Which is a completely different scenario from the ABS compulsorily hoovering up everything it can about you, linking it all under one identifier, keeping it forever, sharing it with virtually all of government, and hawking it to the private sector, all without any consent from the individual participants or right of data recall. I completely oppose any such scenario.

    (So don’t take too much comfort from my position on this, Bemused.)

  39. ABC24’s news reports on political matters appear to be readings of unedited handouts from the offices of the PM or other Ministers. So the Government ‘can’t keep it’s election promise’ to tackle ‘bad behaviour in unions’, which was the ‘focus’ of the last election. What? It was barely mentioned. Stick to the facts ABC.

    I don’t believe that the ABC is biased, but stripped of funding by a hostile Government, with a stacked board and CEO, thoroughly cowed, fearful for its survival, if must feel it can do nothing else.

    I don’t know why. This Government if it wins another term will break up the ABC and sell it off as soon as they can do so politically. The ABC might as well do it’s job.

  40. 24 hour news has to fill up the hours. Just like the constant article stream required of online news site. That means that pre-written press releases are great time fillers and will happily be regurgitated. It’s why you see so many articles these days with sitting politicians as by lines.

    So ABC24 would probably happily read verbatim from anything Labor handed to them as well.

  41. Victoria @11:05
    It’s 1975 all over again!
    The difference is that Whitlam’s lot had done a lot of decent things
    BTW, I ‘m surprised u can remember that long ago

  43. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    Anyone else getting the smell of the last year of Whitlam about this government?

    So George Brandis to the High Court when Chief Justice French retires then? : )

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. We have an omnibus edition today.

    John Hewson says that Turnbull’s constant point-scoring attacks on Shorten will eventually cost him his government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-attacks-on-labor-will-eventually-cost-him-government-20161102-gsgsp4.html
    Caltex has been spooked and is now strongly investigating the pay arrangements at its franchises. There must be taxation issues too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/caltex-doubles-down-on-wage-fraud-20161103-gshdoz.html
    Joanna Howe says that foreign students are indeed vulnerable to egregious and systematic exploitation by certain business sectors.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/top-class-protection-needed-to-end-exploitation-of-international-students-20161103-gsh0pt.html
    Mark Kenny suggests that an attempt by hypocrite Day’s many creditors to claw back millions of dollars of donations may well bankrupt Family First.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bid-to-claw-back-bob-days-donations-could-bankrupt-family-first-20161103-gsh109.html
    The AFR does some forensic work on the collapse of the Day company. Google.
    /real-estate/residential/bob-days-home-australia-liquidators-chasing-15m-from-100-company-20161102-gsgmgx
    And this story certainly has legs and should feature strongly in QT.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fresh-questions-emerge-over-2m-coalition-grant-to-bob-day-school-20161103-gsh52c.html
    There is a rising climate of fear and anxiety as voter intimidation claims mount writes Paul McGeough. It makes one appreciate our own country even more.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-rising-climate-of-fear-and-anxiety-as-voterintimidation-claims-mount-20161102-gsgs1o.html
    Here’s another reason!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-happens-when-white-men-are-scared-20161102-gsgsq2.html
    Insiders say that the FBI is “Trumpland”. Yes, the country IS stuffed!
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump
    Trump can’t count on the “missing white voters”.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters-20161103-gshpkj.html
    The US election inspires projectile vomiting!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/03/us-election-projectile-vomiting-barbara-ehrenreich

  47. Section 2 . . .

    How the heck can voters think Donald Trump is more honest than Hillary Clinton?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/how-the-heck-can-voters-think-donald-trump-is-more-honest-than-hillary-clinton-20161103-gsh65s.html
    The Mexican government is preparing a response for the potential election of Trump.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/mexico-prepares-a-contingency-plan-in-case-donald-trump-wins-the-us-presidency-20161103-gshopn.html
    Why this is the worst possible time for a Trump victory. It’s a bit frightening really.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2016/11/03/trump-win-market-crash/
    Greg Jericho explores how nation figures hide unevenness of growth,
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/nov/03/interest-rates-and-housing-how-the-national-picture-hides-uneven-growth
    The UK High Court has delivered Brexit a blow by ruling it must be Parliament as opposed to the PM that must “pull the trigger”. The international money market acted abruptly.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/britains-high-court-deals-blow-to-uk-brexit-hopes-20161103-gshn7w.html
    The spotlight will be on 18c today when the Federal Court hands down decision on the QUT case.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/18c-case-court-to-hand-down-queensland-university-of-technology-judgment-20161103-gshjtc.html
    Alan Hirst asks just why is The Australian so obsessed with 18c.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/media-sauce-why-is-the-australian-fixated-on-18c,9680
    Will Baird break his run and do something right for a change?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/baird-governments-plan-to-axe-green-slip-insurers-super-profits-amid-reforms-20161103-gsgyvr.html
    Privatisation strikes again!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-governments-f6-property-bungle-caused-by-haste-to-privatise-land-information-and-property-unit-say-former-staff-20161102-gsgfow.html
    Something more for Baird to chew on as there are calls to extend the lockout laws to casinos.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/mike-baird-must-look-at-extending-lockout-laws-to-casinos-20161102-gsgt8j.html

  48. Section 3 . . .

    Now the government is trying to push its public service pay and conditions negotiation process onto ASC which has operated autonomously for decades. Google.
    /news/south-australia/adelaide-shipbuilders-taking-industrial-action-against-asc-next-week-over-pay-negotiations/news-story/982cd6dacb36590174291b2a4acbe671
    Meanwhile wages for federal public servants are determined by ideas and polices that are 30 years behind the times says a former Public Service Commissioner.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-service-pay-unequal-unfair-and-30-years-out-of-date-says-former-public-service-commissioner-20161103-gsh4qc.html
    Is Pauline Hanson seeking advice on the meaning of the word “jettison” I wonder?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pauline-hanson-goes-to-ground-amid-rodney-culleton-high-court-challenge-and-one-nation-unity-test-20161103-gsh8is.html
    The Australian tells us that investigators have found “significant safety issues” with the Dreamworld ride. Google.
    /national-affairs/health/dreamworld-tragedy-significant-issues-found-with-raft-ride/news-story/eb836d4ad0f4f4f718d6862fed1fb99d
    Labor is putting the acid on Turnbull over the ethics of Andrew Robb’s new fob appointment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/04/labor-calls-on-turnbull-to-seek-assurances-over-andrew-robbs-new-job
    MPs from all sides are preparing to defend John Howard’s gun control legacy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crossparty-push-to-protect-john-howards-gun-control-legacy-20161103-gsheg8.html
    According to Turnbull it’s not chaos but there are so many of the government’s bills that are in limbo as the fate of two senators is determined.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/key-turnbull-government-bills-in-limbo-as-senate-awaits-challenges-for-bob-day-and-rod-culleton-20161102-gsgrwn.html
    But Chris Johnson says that Turnbull is rueing the Senate mess of his own making.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/11/03/turnbull-senate-mess/
    Laura Tingle looks at the “non-chaos” of the Senate. Google.
    /opinion/the-bob-day-and-rod-culleton-legal-intrigue-that-threw-the-senate-ratios-20161103-gshcay
    Michelle Grattan writes that the ABCC legislation will be a test of Turnbull’s negotiating skills – and his backbone!
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-industrial-bills-test-turnbulls-negotiating-skills-and-backbone-68187
    The AFR looks at the future of the LaTrobe Valley after the Hazelwood closure. Google.
    /news/local-towns-devastated-by-hazelwood-closure-20161103-gshdqn
    Josh Gordon puts the Hazelwood closure into perspective.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hazelwood-demise-a-matter-of-perspective-20161103-gsh9pa.html
    Windbag Alan Jones is going after wind farms again citing dubious evidence.
    https://theconversation.com/alan-jones-goes-after-wind-farms-again-citing-dubious-evidence-68152
    Should Morrison be worried about the “net zero taxpayers” in Australia?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/should-the-treasurer-be-worried-about-the-number-of-zero-net-taxpayers-20161103-gsgy8e.html

  49. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Australia is being left behind by global momentum on climate change.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/03/australia-being-left-behind-by-global-momentum-on-climate-change

    David Rowe takes us to the World Series final.

    Alan Moir on the cracking success of Turnbull’s double dissolution.

    Jon Kudelka also comes in on the DD outcome.

    Alan Moir looks in on the finish to the US election race.

    Another little ripper from Ron Tandberg!

    And he follows through with this one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Pope certainly knows how to get the message across.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Mark Knight has a different (News Ltd) view of the Hazelwood closure.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c494da8397c068de00700221efcc12b9?width=1024
    Now it’s getting really personal as Bill Leak goes after Gillian Triggs.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3bf24d445b2624bac5f9c3a93f87afba

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