Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change from Essential Research, as a new Roy Morgan poll finds Malcolm Turnbull losing his position as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop.

Our only new poll of national voting intention for the week is a stable reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 38% (steady), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 2% (down one). Other questions find 49% continuing to approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, down from 58% at the time that it happened in September last year, with disapproval up from 24% to 29%; 6% thinking Australia’s gun laws too strong, 44% not strong enough and 45% about right; 44% in favour of phasing out live exports, with 29% opposed; and 55% supporting taxpayer-funded paid parental leave being curtailed for those with access to employer-sponsored schemes, with 32% opposed. Questions on the attributes of the two presidential candidates evince extraordinary hostility to Donald Trump, even to the extent of being deemed intelligent by 30% and not intelligent by 56% – the only net negative result on this question I’ve ever seen for a political leader. Hillary Clinton rates low for honesty and trustworthiness, but otherwise scores extremely well.

We also have one of Roy Morgan’s occasional phone poll results on leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull down twelve on approval since May to 31, and up eight on disapproval to 53%; Bill Shorten respectively down three to 31% and steady on 49%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 57-24 to 47-32. Most strikingly, Turnbull has lost his lead as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop, with the two respectively down from 41% to 25% and up from 24% to 34%, while Tony Abbott’s rating has doubled to 14%. Bill Shorten is steady as preferred Labor leader on 14%, with his deficit widening relative to Tanya Plibersek (up three points to 25%) and Anthony Albanese (up four to 24%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 552.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 20
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  1. Cupid

    Malcolms ‘Masterstroke’ with the DD worked a treat.

    Yep. Even his L/NP colleagues are still spending so much time trying to work out what that was about that Malcolm’s still leader!


  4. Nikkei Savva and others keep going on about how smart Turnbull is with his AS wedge and how, if labor rejects the legislation, Turnbull will spend the next two years hitting labor around the head with it.

    I thought that the rejection of the SSM Plebiscite was going to be Labor’s gotterdamerung? : )

  5. I have every frigging channel on fox and of course not one has the rights to the world series (or the premier league for that matter).
    Might have to get rid of it. again.

  7. Can’t beat the Greens for self promotion and chutzpah.
    Now they are claiming credit for closing Hazelwood!

    We closed Hazelwood! Now what?
    —
    For over ten years, Greens volunteers have campaigned alongside Environment Victoria, Friends of the Earth, Latrobe Valley locals, and community groups, calling for the retirement of this dirty, polluting dinosaur.

    This is a huge step forward in our fight for a coal free future. But it’s just the beginning.
    —

    Nothing to do with Labor and the State Govt?

  8. HENRY – I download the premier league from Rojadirecta every Sunday morning. I buy a premium service of nitroflare or incloudrive (about $10 a month) and download them in high-def. Games get pinned up on rojadirecta about ten minutes after they finish.

  11. tpof @ #798 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 3:26 pm

    simon katich @ #757 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    Jen – ** This is getting scary **
    One day they will have to take the U out of USA.
    Below is a link to a hilarious but troubling email trail of a conversation between David Thorne and a ‘redneck’. Thorne is famous for his acerbic humour but he clearly has no time for rednecks (esp ones who call him a foggot) and he really lets loose. Its a long read but entertaining.
    http://www.27bslash6.com/foggot.html

    Thank you. Best laugh in ages.

    Thank you. Small quote below which entertained me. I wish the regimental dog was a reader. However, she, the dog, is exhausted after swiping half of one of my excellent beef, tomato, lettuce and purple onion sandwiches. 🙂

    read somewhere that Eskimos prefer women of girth as it provides warmth at night. I have seen the size of those igloos though and there is no way your girlfriend would make it through the opening. You could probably just construct one around her and despite the hassle of having to trudge out into the snow every day to catch and prepare the eighty seals required to maintain her mass, it would be like a kiln in there.

  23. BK
    Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 4:01 pm
    I get SO angry when I see shit like this go down!
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/03/national-bank-the-only-bob-day-creditor-to-get-any-money-liquidators-say?CMP=soc_568

    Also from this article re Culleton – he and Day are just mini Trumps and no more worthy of being elected.

    Another businessman-turned-senator was due to face a creditors’ meeting in Perth.

    One Nation senator Rod Culleton’s company, Elite Grains, is believed to owe dozens of creditors more than $6m.

    Before the meeting, Culleton became angry when he saw a reporter with a camera, which he tried to take, but was restrained by his chief of staff, Margaret Menzel.

  24. Bemused
    Re Hazelwood closure.

    Nothing to do with Labor and the State Govt?

    No – nothing to do with Labor or the State Govt.
    It was a strategic decision by Engie, a global player in the energy market, to get out of coal and gas fired power stations because it can see the writing on the wall, and is focused on it’s renewable portfolio. Unlike our federal government which has no energy policy and is unprepared for the rapid roll out of renewables and storage which is happening globally.
    For example, the cost of home battery storage has dropped by nearly 50% in the past 12 months.
    The activities of the Greens and environmental activists have not been directly responsible for Engie’s decision, but they have contributed to the reputational damage of power companies who continue to operate dirty facilities like Hazelwood.

  26. Oh wow. That was a huge misplay by Cullerton. Brandis can’t accept that proposition now without it looking like corruption. Even if he did it’s up to the Senate not Brandis and blatant corruption like that is almost certain to get it through even if the Coalition votes against and that’s assuming that Parry would even allow that in the first place which seems unlikely as it would bring serious disrepute on the Senate.

  27. Benn out for a while, but what’s allthis about 0.5 of a vote?

    Can it be put any simpler than as follows: if someone WAS going to vote your way, and then they get run over by a High Court and can’t vote, but your opponent still has all HIS votes intact and ready to cast those votes, then your majority is reduced by one. Each person who would have voted for you, but doesn’t turn up, while your opponents keep all their votes together, is to your disadvantage.

  28. Some of you give Shorten too much credit early. On ‘security’ Labor usually equivocates for a while , makes vague disapproving noises, then collapses like a house of cards, maybe stripping out some blatantly unconstitutional stuff or making some token amendments to reduce the horrendous if they are feeling particularly progressive that week.

    I’ll believe they actually oppose this when I see it.

  29. Adam Gartrell ‏@adamgartrell · 47m47 minutes ago

    An informed government source reckons the High Court probably won’t actually hear the Day or Culleton cases until February #auspol

  30. BB:
    No. You need a majority in the Senate to pass legislation, which means unless someone is absent or abstaining, it relatively numbers don’t matter because the requirement to pass mathematically ensures it. Being absent or abstaining is mathematically equivalent to voting 50/50. When then the Senate goes from 76-> 75 as a result that 0.5 puts you over the line like 1 vote in favour would. If there’s 2 absent / abstaining, it no longer does.

  31. A NEW wave of wind farm developments is sweeping Victoria, following the easing of planning restrictions and moves to establish a $2.5 billion state-based renewable energy target.

    Renewable energy companies are gearing up to build 116 turbines at Murra Warra, 96 turbines at Dundonnell, 60 turbines at Lal Lal and 13 at Kiata.

    UK company RES, which has built 5000 turbines worldwide, is building its latest wind farm on 17 Murra Warra farmers’ land, including Victorian Farmers Federation president David Jochinke’s property.

    http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/wind-farm-developments-crank-up-across-victoria/news-story/d6f4464f23be9c83c0d83a98e9223498

  34. The Turnbull government is under increasing pressure to back up its Paris commitment with a plan to guide the transformation of Australia’s electricity system. Business, energy, union, welfare and environmental groups are making unprecedented joint calls for action. Investors want clear bipartisan policies so they can confidently build the new power stations the country will need.

    Serious heads in the Coalition and Labor know this. And the government is soon going to need to say something about how it is going to reach its target of a 26-28 per cent cut in emissions by 2030.

    If that doesn’t include a policy that sets a map for the electricity sector, it will increase the risk that in the years ahead coal plants will shut abruptly. That would leave the country open to the sort of blackouts that shut down South Australia in late September. It would be expensive.

    http://linkis.com/www.theage.com.au/vi/6kaID

  36. lizzie

    That would leave the country open to the sort of blackouts that shut down South Australia in late September. It would be expensive.

    When it comes to saving the fossil fuel industry, no price is to high for the COALition!

  38. trog sorrenson @ #824 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    Bemused
    Re Hazelwood closure.

    Nothing to do with Labor and the State Govt?

    No – nothing to do with Labor or the State Govt.
    It was a strategic decision by Engie, a global player in the energy market, to get out of coal and gas fired power stations because it can see the writing on the wall, and is focused on it’s renewable portfolio. Unlike our federal government which has no energy policy and is unprepared for the rapid roll out of renewables and storage which is happening globally.
    For example, the cost of home battery storage has dropped by nearly 50% in the past 12 months.
    The activities of the Greens and environmental activists have not been directly responsible for Engie’s decision, but they have contributed to the reputational damage of power companies who continue to operate dirty facilities like Hazelwood.

    So once again the Greens are caught out lying by taking credit for something they had nothing to do with other than being part of the background of protest, which included many ALP members, and was not obstructed by the Govt.

  39. elaugaufein @ #828 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    Some of you give Shorten too much credit early. On ‘security’ Labor usually equivocates for a while , makes vague disapproving noises, then collapses like a house of cards, maybe stripping out some blatantly unconstitutional stuff or making some token amendments to reduce the horrendous if they are feeling particularly progressive that week.
    I’ll believe they actually oppose this when I see it.

    Being in opposition means you are in the minority and not calling the shots. Any concessions you get are a win, except apparently not on planet Green where 100% of nothing or 0% of everything are desirable goals.

  40. It is the true progressive left movement which deserves credit for the shift to renewable energy.
    Not many true left progressive left in todays ALP/LNP parliamentary ranks.

  41. The Greens’ political attention deficit disorder on public display today.
    The only significant real power they have is to power to fool themselves that they matter more than a can of beans.

  42. lizzie @ #831 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 4:49 pm

    A NEW wave of wind farm developments is sweeping Victoria, following the easing of planning restrictions and moves to establish a $2.5 billion state-based renewable energy target.
    Renewable energy companies are gearing up to build 116 turbines at Murra Warra, 96 turbines at Dundonnell, 60 turbines at Lal Lal and 13 at Kiata.
    UK company RES, which has built 5000 turbines worldwide, is building its latest wind farm on 17 Murra Warra farmers’ land, including Victorian Farmers Federation president David Jochinke’s property.

    http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/wind-farm-developments-crank-up-across-victoria/news-story/d6f4464f23be9c83c0d83a98e9223498

    Where are the Australian companies?
    Have the Libs stupid games caused us to miss yet another boat?

  43. elaugaufein @ #828 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    Some of you give Shorten too much credit early. On ‘security’ Labor usually equivocates for a while , makes vague disapproving noises, then collapses like a house of cards, maybe stripping out some blatantly unconstitutional stuff or making some token amendments to reduce the horrendous if they are feeling particularly progressive that week.
    I’ll believe they actually oppose this when I see it.

    Bill Shorten is a political weathervane on many issues.

    Not a strong leader, at all.

  46. Bemused
    Labor was entirely capable of stopping those things passing the Senate if they wished. They did not. You’ve moved from calling for compromise to striving for 100% of nothing without noticing.

    BW
    Blah blah blah. Labor still isn’t going to hold the Senate in their own right or be able to block in the Senate without the Greens. Guess that means Labor doesn’t matter a can of beans either. That’s a shame as I considered them somewhat better than the Coalition

  48. BK
    So that $2mill is $90K per student for a certificate that costs TAFE $3K per student.

    Hmmmm. Thats about 25 Frances Abbott Scholarships.

  50. elaugaufein @ #846 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 5:27 pm

    Bemused
    Labor was entirely capable of stopping those things passing the Senate if they wished. They did not. You’ve moved from calling for compromise to striving for 100% of nothing without noticing.
    BW
    Blah blah blah. Labor still isn’t going to hold the Senate in their own right or be able to block in the Senate without the Greens. Guess that means Labor doesn’t matter a can of beans either. That’s a shame as I considered them somewhat better than the Coalition

    You are arithmetically challenged as are most (all?) Greens.
    Labor does not on its own or even in combination with the Greens, who can’t be relied on anyway, have a blocking number of votes in the Senate.

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