Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

No change from Essential Research, as a new Roy Morgan poll finds Malcolm Turnbull losing his position as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop.

Our only new poll of national voting intention for the week is a stable reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 38% (steady), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 2% (down one). Other questions find 49% continuing to approve of Malcolm Turnbull’s replacement of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, down from 58% at the time that it happened in September last year, with disapproval up from 24% to 29%; 6% thinking Australia’s gun laws too strong, 44% not strong enough and 45% about right; 44% in favour of phasing out live exports, with 29% opposed; and 55% supporting taxpayer-funded paid parental leave being curtailed for those with access to employer-sponsored schemes, with 32% opposed. Questions on the attributes of the two presidential candidates evince extraordinary hostility to Donald Trump, even to the extent of being deemed intelligent by 30% and not intelligent by 56% – the only net negative result on this question I’ve ever seen for a political leader. Hillary Clinton rates low for honesty and trustworthiness, but otherwise scores extremely well.

We also have one of Roy Morgan’s occasional phone poll results on leadership ratings, which has Malcolm Turnbull down twelve on approval since May to 31, and up eight on disapproval to 53%; Bill Shorten respectively down three to 31% and steady on 49%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 57-24 to 47-32. Most strikingly, Turnbull has lost his lead as preferred Coalition leader to Julie Bishop, with the two respectively down from 41% to 25% and up from 24% to 34%, while Tony Abbott’s rating has doubled to 14%. Bill Shorten is steady as preferred Labor leader on 14%, with his deficit widening relative to Tanya Plibersek (up three points to 25%) and Anthony Albanese (up four to 24%). The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 552.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

999 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Labor will never have a majority in the senate.

    Any Labor partisan who thinks otherwise or doesn’t recognise the need to work with other senators is deluded.

  5. Rex

    Any Labor partisan who thinks otherwise or doesn’t recognise the need to work with other senators is deluded.

    And the last changes to Senate voting have given Labor a bigger range of choices of who to work with.

  6. First the Greens swagger and brag about an outcome that they had no decision-making power over.
    At all. None. Nothing. De nada. Zilch. Zip. Zero.
    To be clear:
    The Greens had no legislative power over this decision.
    The Greens had no regulatory power over this decision.
    The Greens had no program power over this decision.
    The Greens had no financial power over this decision.
    But does that stop the Greens claiming a major victory!
    When this is pointed out to them they engage in the usual personal vituperation.
    How dare anyone criticize the all-wise, all-seeing , all-powerful Greens Illuminati?
    If only the Greens spinmeisters had ridden with the Sioux. those Sioux sure would have been mortified to learn that it was the Greens that won the Battle of Little Bighorn, not all those sorry ass Sioux who came along for the ride.

  8. Warning!
    Rebecca Weisser is on The Drum and is – well – just don’t watch unless you are feeling strong. Migrants/humanitarian refugees – all uneducated and you can’t trust em.

  11. Labor has learned from its mistakes.
    Labor is now the swing vote in the Senate and the Opposition.
    The PHONies, the NeXters, the Dribs and Drabs, and the Greens can take it or leave it.

  12. Trog
    The Greens slink around Hazlewood like Jackals around the Lion’s kill and brag about what wonderful job they did in shutting Hazlewood down.
    You guys don’t even realize how ludicrous it looks from the outside.
    I await for a single bit of hard evidence that the Greens had anything at all to do with Hazlewood’s closure.
    Just one bit will do.
    Or are you guys empty as a pocket?

  13. lizzie @ #858 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 5:50 pm

    Warning!
    Rebecca Weisser is on The Drum and is – well – just don’t watch unless you are feeling strong. Migrants/humanitarian refugees – all uneducated and you can’t trust em.

    WE have had a wonderful sunny day in Newcastle.
    Rebecca Weisser your say! Well! She may have had a “road to Damascus” moment”. She may no longer lisp. She may sing, dance and play the ukulele.
    I think I need a cold shower and a good long rest. 😆

  15. To get a majority in the Senate Labour would need to get about 50% of the Primary vote more of less spread out over all states for two consecutive half Senate elections, or in a double dissolution. They can’t do it on 40-something percent, let alone 30-something. It’s hard to see it happening.

  16. Boerwar
    At no point did I claim that the Greens or any environmental group were responsible for the Haezelwood closure, only that activities of groups like the Greens contributed to the negative perception of companies that generate dirty power.
    The closure is certainly a cause for celebration.

  20. Re the hazlewood closure
    To misquote JBPriestley “Morwell is a place where on a spring day you can fling the windows open and hear the birds….coughing”
    It’s not only the brown coal. the nearby Paper mill used to spew out unpleasant odours. I must disclose a personal interest. 16 years ago i spent a fortnight in the Latrobe Valley hospital having a kidney removed. After breathing those fumes during that period, my urine smelt of starch for nearly six months.
    I wish some ‘agile and innovative’ govt would fund the replacement of the filthy coal burners with renewable energy plant even if we had to pay the French nearly as much as we have for the non nuclear submarines.

  23. trog sorrenson @ #866 Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 6:10 pm

    Boerwar
    At no point did I claim that the Greens or any environmental group were responsible for the Haezelwood closure, only that activities of groups like the Greens contributed to the negative perception of companies that generate dirty power.
    The closure is certainly a cause for celebration.

    I quoted a Greens press release that made the claim.

  24. @TPOF
    Hmm ? No, I still consider Labor somewhat superior to the Coalition over all. There are areas where I consider them roughly equivalent based on their own behaviour and border and national security are two of these. Perhaps they scrape over the line of being a little better by virtue of being slightly less willing to trample moral responsibilities and civil liberties, and doing so to a mildly lesser extent, when in office but that’s a freaking low bar.

    My point to BW was that any argument he uses to make the Greens irrelevant apply equally to Federal Labor and Labor in several states. Not that it matters, no one would have rage fits about the Greens if they didn’t think they mattered, so the rants about such are self-delusion or bad faith to start with, so they can’t be argued with as if they were.

  26. ‘ We closed Hazelwood! Now what?
    —
    For over ten years, Greens volunteers have campaigned alongside Environment Victoria, Friends of the Earth, Latrobe Valley locals, and community groups, calling for the retirement of this dirty, polluting dinosaur.

    This is a huge step forward in our fight for a coal free future. But it’s just the beginning.
    — ‘

  27. “I’m not going to allow an arrangement where people believe that it’s OK to enter into what are essentially sham relationships to come to Australia on a spouse visa or through some other means,” he (Dutton) said.

    Kerry Murphy, a credited migration specialist, said the idea new legislation was needed to prevent such relationships was “frankly ludicrous”.

    Murphy estimated the department of immigration already assesses tens of thousands of such applications each year, and said restrictions and provisions already existed.

    “You’re looking at a process the department deals with very regularly,” Murphy told Guardian Australia. “This is nothing new. Why not let the application go through the existing law that’s already there?”

    Shouldn’t the word be “accredited”? But that’s not why I posted this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/03/peter-duttons-sham-relationships-claim-questioned-by-migration-experts?CMP=share_btn_tw

  28. So which is it? Did the Greens close Hazlewood or did they not?
    The Greens seem hopelessly confused about the Greens and that is just for starters.

  29. It’s also literally impossible to be both the actual opposition and the Swing vote, as that requires mutually exclusive positions.

    Labor is the statutory Opposition and the Swing vote though, so fair play to them on that.

  30. You could read what you quoted where the Greens explicitly give credit to a wide variety of protest and activist groups they worked with to raise awareness of the problems with Hazelwood. But then you might come to the conclusion the Greens are claiming full personal credit it a grandstanding fashion which I understand would be problematic for your world view. So you might want to avoid that.

  32. E
    Keep digging.
    The Greens used to play the swing vote but Labor has gazumped them in that role.
    Two can play at that game, eh?
    The Greens?
    Ten per cent and coasting.
    Always the bridesmaids and never the brides.
    Always the spoilers and never the main game.

  36. Yes, weird isn’t it how in movements, many groups can claim some credit but no group all. If only there were a wide variety of historical antecedents of this phenomena dating back through human history it may have been less shocking as an interpretation.

  38. It would be good if this were to happen – although apparently only a possibility.

    Bid to claw back Bob Day’s donations could bankrupt Family First

    Mark Kenny Adam Gartrell Eryk Bagshaw

    Home buyers and tradies burnt by the collapse of Bob Day’s construction empire are weighing up whether to go after up to $2 million in loans and donations made to the former senator’s party even as his companies were teetering on collapse.

    A successful action could bankrupt the Family First party along with Mr Day, who has already quit Parliament to face personal ruin including the loss of his family home and other assets.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bid-to-claw-back-bob-days-donations-could-bankrupt-family-first-20161103-gsh109.html

  39. If you demontrate out in front of a dirty powerstation on and off for few years, then the fucking thing gets shut down, then you can claim a win, even if it wasn’t your placard specifically that tipped the balance.
    I don’t remember Shorten demonstrating out the front.

  45. Bankrupting FF probably wouldn’t be too problematic. As a political party , all they’d need to do is send out a request to members asking for permission to add them to a new parties mailing list, declare bankruptcy , dissolve, reform as The Family First Party , contact the members to rejoin and ask for donations. Hell as a bonus it would effectively purge Days Superdry Libs.

  47. Boerwar
    We already did and explained our position. It’s weird that you as a Labor supporter are now failing to understand how collective action works. Is anyone worker in a strike responsible for its success ? Of course not. Are they all somewhat responsible? Yes.

  48. TS @6:52
    I don’t remember Shorten demonstrating out the front.
    Although I do remember him At the 2006 Coal Mine disaster, Doing what a Union Leader should do’
    Maybe a LOTO has more to do than waving placards. Perhaps he’s trying to save Workers’ families.

  50. E
    So the mysterious Collective did it and not the Greens?

    So, did the Collective introduce new legislation? Or did the Collective force a change in regulations? Or did the Collective implement a government program? Or did the Collective inject some financial rewards or punishment? Or did the Greens really do it?

    Or was it the Cubs?

    Keep wriggling!

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