BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

Not much happening on the poll aggregate this week, but lots of news to report on preselections and related party shenanigans.

I’ve been a bit tardy updating BludgerTrack this week, but as you can see below, you haven’t been missing much. The moral of the story is that a single Essential Research result is unlikely to change much under the new set-up, particularly when, as present, it accounts for 16 out of 20 available data points. Things may be different when, presumably, Newspoll comes along either tonight or tomorrow night. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Keep reading below the fold for a whole bunch of material on party games, and also note that there’s a separate post below this one for presidential election discussion.

bt2019-2016-10-19

Other news:

• The Victorian branch of the ALP last week signed off on Kimberley Kitching as Stephen Conroy’s Senate replacement, following the Right faction warlord’s surprise retirement announcement in mid-September. Kitching is a lawyer with Cornwall Stodart, and was formerly a Melbourne City councillor and general manager of the troubled Health Services Union. The royal commission into trade union corruption recommended charges be pursued against Kitching relating to allegations she completed tests for workplace entry permits on behalf of union organisers, but none have been forthcoming in the two years since. Kitching was effectively unopposed in the vote by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, as factional arrangements reserve the seat for the Right. She had won the Right’s backing ahead of Diana Taylor, former Clayton Utz lawyer and a director at the Geelong Football Club, who had support from Richard Marles, federal front-bencher and member for Corio. According to the Herald Sun, other nominees included “Warrnambool city councillor Jacinta Ermacora, former state member for Benalla Denise Allan, Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and 2010 Young Victorian of the Year Wesa Chau”.

Kitching and her husband, Andrew Landeryou – whose VexNews blog trod on many a toe until he retired it in 2013 out of deference to his wife’s political ambitions – are both close to Bill Shorten. Reports have identified widespread criticism of Shorten’s actions within the party from mostly unidentified sources, although Anthony Albanese declined an opportunity to endorse Kitching, saying her preselection was “a matter for the Victorian branch”. Albanese also said there was “a case for ensuring that members have votes in Senate pre-selections” – true of the his own branch in New South Wales, but not in Victoria. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that a Left-sponsored motion at the Victorian party’s state conference next month will propose “giving members a greater say in Senate preselections”.

Labor sources quoted by Katherine Murphy of The Guardian claim Shorten’s backing for Kitching was motivated by a desire to harness HSU numbers as he seeks to plug the gap in his factional network created by Conroy’s departure. James Campbell of the Herald Sun earlier reported that the sudden exit of Conroy was causing ructions in the Right, owing to a power-sharing agreement that had been reached between the secretaries of the Australian Workers Union, National Union of Workers, Transport Workers Union and the power bloc associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It was understood at the time that the TWU vote was a proxy for the broader Conroy group, but it now stood to fall entirely to the union’s secretary, John Berger, leaving Conroy’s other allies out in the cold. Berger’s favoured candidate was Bill Baarini, TWU union officer and former mayor of Hobsons Bay, but Shorten concurred with a view that this would violate the party’s affirmative action rules.

• Further argybargy is unfolding in the Victorian ALP courtesy of a Left faction split between the “National Left”, associated with Anthony Albanese, and the breakaway “Industrial Left” of Victorian Senator Kim Carr. This was formalised after the election when a Left majority resolved to dump Carr from the front bench in favour of Linda Burney, the former New South Wales deputy state leader and newly elected member for Barton. Bill Shorten ensured Carr was accommodated by expanding the front bench, reflecting the importance of the “stability pact” between Carr and the Shorten-Conroy axis in managing affairs the Victorian branch’s affairs. However, the split meant Carr ally Gavin Marshall no longer had Left support to retain his position as Deputy President in the Senate, which has instead gone to Sue Lines from Western Australia.

Marshall last week foreshadowed preselections against Victorian members of the National Left, who include two shadow cabinet members in Jenny Macklin (Jagajaga) and Catherine King (Ballarat) and a junior front-bencher, Andrew Giles (Scullin). As James Massola of Fairfax reports, Marshall confirmed he was organising a challenge to Giles, although no candidate has been identified; claimed there was “discontent in Ballarat”, and that it was a “possibility” he would back a challenge to King; and suggested Macklin could be sure of being spared only because it was “well known that she is retiring”, which a spokesperson for Macklin denied.

• Bob Day, Family First Senator from South Australia, announced last week he would resign from his position after his home building group went into liquidation. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Day hopes to be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, Rikki Lambert, who shares his zeal for a pro-business line on workplace relations. However, he faces opposition from Robert Brokenshire, a Liberal-turned-Family First member of the state parliament, and perhaps also Lucy Gichuhi, a Kenyan-born lawyer who was Day’s running mate at the July 2 election.

• A motion moved by Tony Abbott at yesterday’s state council meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party calling for democratised preselections was reportedly defeated by 246 votes to 174. This was pursued despite the concurrence of Malcolm Turnbull and Mike Baird that the proposed measure should feature among a range of reforms to be considered at a party convention next year, to which state council agreed. Abbott’s proposal would involve plebiscites of party members for all preselections, which is broadly favoured by the party’s hard Right and opposed by the centre Right and the moderates, since it would diminish the importance of the latter’s control of the state executive.

• A poll conducted by Research Now last month for the Australia Institute asked 1426 respondents to list their first and second favoured options for the government to negotiate with in getting legislation through the Senate, which found 54% rating Labor first or second compared with 42% for the Nick Xenophon Team, 32% for the Greens and 29$ for One Nation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

707 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. I am not sure of Victoria but in NSW med admin would stop this sort of shift for budget as well as safety issues The base rate is close to $60 ph and double time starts after 42 hours pw. Your relative would be making over $300k. If you employ a second registrar you save money.

  2. To permit the huge hours the junior medical doctors are required to work is criminal.

    These extremely long shifts in medicine are the result of doctors wanting to be part of a self-flagellating tradition of demonstrating toughness and resilience – a very sick way of doing it, and very dangerous to their own wellbeing and that of their patients. It seems akin to hazing or boarding house bullying – something you have to endure to show that you belong. The excessively long shifts in medicine are also driven by doctors wanting to maximize their incomes. Another poor reason for endangering themselves and their patients.

  3. Elaugaufein

    That is what I have never understood about putting them through bullshit long hours. Nobody performs well when sleep deprived but to deliberately create such a situation in what is a matter of life and death seems madness.

  4. poroti @ #204 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 5:56 pm

    Elaugaufein
    That is what I have never understood about putting them through bullshit long hours. Nobody performs well when sleep deprived but to deliberately create such a situation in what is a matter of life and death seems madness.

    The other issue I have is that very inexperienced Registrars are not always adequately supervised and in that sort of culture will persist when they should take matters up with a Consultant.

  5. OC, income is nothing like that (at least in Victoria). This relative in the early days was getting less per hour than the nursing staff.

    This is possible because of the criminal activity conducted by some hospitals where they DO NOT pay for any overtime. Their policy was to aim to have a work/life balance for the Drs and therefore overtime would not be worked. The end result of this subterfuge was to put the junior doctors on all the overtime as they didn’t have to pay them any extra. The extra unpaid overtime dropped their average hourly rate.

    Once again the doctors don’t complain as it will wreck their chances of getting on the program.

  6. John Wren ‏@JohnWren1950 · 1h1 hour ago

    It’s clear that within @LiberalAus, “human rights” are defined as anything that gets in the way of making money. #auspol

  7. I just got back from a swim at the local pool and I feel good. This is not right. I should be tired and sore and in need of a nice restvwith a glass of chilled white. I knew there was a downside to exercise!

  8. Such terrible candidates on offer from the major parties in the United States:

    Roy casts back to Richard Nixon, who lost the 1960 election in a close race to JFK, a race that might have been decided by a dodgy vote in Chicago. His aides told him to contest but he refused, saying he did not want to look like a sore loser.
    So this is where we are. The Republican Party is locked into a death march being led by a bloke whose character looks poor when compared with Nixon, the president who talked of firebombing the Brookings Institution.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trumps-death-march-20161021-gs7iah.html

  9. N ‘These extremely long shifts in medicine are the result of doctors wanting to be part of a self-flagellating tradition of demonstrating toughness and resilience’
    Some maybe, but I doubt it, they are rostered to do it.

    However, as the places on the program are so restricted, it is used as a filtering system so that you do end up with surgeons who are the most resilient and toughest (as well as the most patient partners!)

    As for maximising income, as shown through my previous point they sometimes don’t get paid for the extra work. My relative would love to work less and, if it involved a reduction in income, that would be OK.

  10. Great article from Mike Secombe in the Saturday Paper today about how Dodgy Bob Day hijacked a party really about socially conservative values (family first) and used it to promote ultra-dry economic policies. It sounds to me as if Bob’s coys have been trading while insolvent for years. If so, unless he’s ring-fenced his personal wealth (which isn’t easy these days) he’s going to be very unwealthy very soon.

  11. Bemused ‘The other issue I have is that very inexperienced Registrars are not always adequately supervised and in that sort of culture will persist when they should take matters up with a Consultant.’

    Too right….. I could never understand the command structure, basically I fear it is haphazard or nonexistent. Who reports to who? Who has the control/authority. Somehow the system works, but it leaves me scratching my head that anything happens at all. Then again I’m not close enough to it to really understand it all.

  12. I just looked at the two awards. They are pretty close, your relative will be on well over $300K pa.
    Some of your posts are in present tense and some in past – was your relatives experience some time ago?

  13. The OC

    If you can’t do, teach and if you can’t teach manage is still valid

    The full version

    Those who can, do
    Those who can’t, teach
    Those who can’t teach, teach others to teach
    Those who can’t teach others to teach, write books on education
    and those who can’t write books on education, set out to become University administrators!

    Or to put it another way, actually wanting a job in administration should automatically disqualify the candidate…

  14. peebee @ #213 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 6:17 pm

    Bemused ‘The other issue I have is that very inexperienced Registrars are not always adequately supervised and in that sort of culture will persist when they should take matters up with a Consultant.’
    Too right….. I could never understand the command structure, basically I fear it is haphazard or nonexistent. Who reports to who? Who has the control/authority. Somehow the system works, but it leaves me scratching my head that anything happens at all. Then again I’m not close enough to it to really understand it all.

    Basically, in most cases, and there are a few honourable exceptions, no-one takes responsibility for anything, and if responsibility can’t be evaded completely, a junior person will be made a scapegoat.

  15. For what it is worth:
    The command structure is well developed and strong. No registrar can act independently there must always be a consultant available. There are numerous safety checks and escalations. The failure of a consultant to adequately support a registrar to a level appropriate to their seniority and skill is a very serious and dismissable situation.

    There is a difference between rostered and unrostered overtime which is covered in the awards. It would be an offence not to pay rostered overtime. Unrostered overtime is allowed and must be paid without authorisation if required to finish an operating list or treat a critically ill patient until relief arrives. Other situations require authorisation – as they would in any industry. This is important for both resident’s rest and the hospital budget. Quite a few RMOs are highly driven and obsessive people and would spend all day in the hospital to cross the final t and need to be told to go home. A very few abuse the system – in NSW each year an average of 3 are dismissed and generally struck off for defrauding their timesheets.

  16. oakeshott country @ #218 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 6:34 pm

    For what it is worth:
    The command structure is well developed and strong. No registrar can act independently there must always be a consultant available. There are numerous safety checks and escalations. The failure of a consultant to adequately support a registrar to a level appropriate to their seniority and skill is a very serious and dismissable situation.

    If only… 🙁

  17. Senator Fifield says things have gone ‘incredibly smoothly’ since the change of Liberal Party leadership.

    It must be the new talking point. Barnaby was quoted as saying something similar yesterday. Talk about delusional!

  18. On engineers becoming managers, my friends cousin is an engineer, she designed one of the stands at Subiaco oval, now the CEO of Water Corporation WA.

  19. Davidwh

    We can only hope the Coalition never goes through a rocky period.

    They’ll send out Barnaby then. He’ll gabble us though the crisis.

  20. Confessions
    Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 4:21 pm
    Davidwh:

    …”If we had emoticons back I’d post a kissy one”…
    You are not a sexual human being and have, through your words, declined your right to claim to be such a person.

  21. Hey Oakeshott, thanks for the answer. Looks like the Q/A kicked off a lively conversation (sorry, but I was asked to walk the dogs before I saw your answer).

    I’ve had a bit of indirect experience with hospital administrators lately, and from what I can see all they to is shift blame, shuffle papers, and fill out tick-lists of KPIs. More technicians than managers.

    This, I realise, may be confined the medical campus in question.

  22. Bemused,
    I hesitated to stick my nose into the to and fro between yourself and Oakeshott Country, however, I’ll have a go anyway.
    I know you had a bitter and horrible experience of one part of the health system in Victoria, however, as dreadful as that experience was for you, it is not true or a reflection of the whole of the health delivery system, or even that part of it that so hurt you.
    Yes, there are under performing clinicians and managers, some are even crooks. I know this first hand, having had the difficult task of having to remove some one in a senior position while at the same time, managing his team who were not allowed to know what was going on while the investigations took place. I have failed people who were clearly just out for the power that a professional qualification would give them, and had to demonstrate that with evidence to universities.
    Speaking personally, my HI wouldn’t be alive but for the response of public health and a brilliant surgeon and team, who BTW, has very good people skills.

  23. OC, not sure if that is the salary, but will check next time we meet. This person is on the program, but I am not sure which year. I have a feeling more to go than have been completed.

    So some of what I have reported was in the past, some very recent. As for unpaid work…. absolutely the case. I remember clarifying this at one stage. The reason for not calling it out has been explained.

    As for chain of command, what you say makes sense, but sometimes I get the impression it does quiet work the way it should. I was told One matron took pride in ‘breaking in’ the new interns. The techniques used to do so were illegal.

  24. BB
    There is certainly that part to it but I left the public system in 2005 and then spent my last 6 clinical years in the private. when I came back to the public as an administrator I was deeply impressed by the cultural change that had happened in the intervening years. This is not due to the administrators but system changes which are due to three factors. A lot of administrators are committed and enjoying the ride of cultural change and a lot are paper shufflers

  25. A terrific article on Bob Day by Mike Seccombe.

    Full of information, analysis and very well written, indeed “a page turner”.

    Linked above, but relinked here. Do yourselves a favour and read it, if only for the pleasure of seeing what good journalism looks like when its not dealing with the daily Inside-Canberra bullshit, and/or touting for the Real Malcolm Turnbull who apparently never seems to get the rails run they all say he deserves.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/10/22/bob-days-resignation-and-family-firsts-future/14770548003880

  26. monica lynagh @ #231 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 7:06 pm

    Bemused,
    I hesitated to stick my nose into the to and fro between yourself and Oakeshott Country, however, I’ll have a go anyway.
    I know you had a bitter and horrible experience of one part of the health system in Victoria, however, as dreadful as that experience was for you, it is not true or a reflection of the whole of the health delivery system, or even that part of it that so hurt you.
    Yes, there are under performing clinicians and managers, some are even crooks. I know this first hand, having had the difficult task of having to remove some one in a senior position while at the same time, managing his team who were not allowed to know what was going on while the investigations took place. I have failed people who were clearly just out for the power that a professional qualification would give them, and had to demonstrate that with evidence to universities.
    Speaking personally, my HI wouldn’t be alive but for the response of public health and a brilliant surgeon and team, who BTW, has very good people skills.

    Don’t feel any inhibitions on my part. I don’t have a thin skin and welcome corrections where I am in error.

    I personally was very well treated on 2 occasions in a Public Hospital with just a minor lapse on the part of one idiotic or sadistic doctor who denied me needed pain relief.

    I welcome Oakeshott’s contribution as, even if I may not entirely agree with him, I always learn something.

    My son was also extremely well cared for by one department in a major public hospital but his treatment in another department was little short of criminal and it went right to the top of the department.

    And there are still plenty of instances of the same neglect occurring. That is the sad reality.

  27. Oakeshotte County, it seems the particular bunch of administrators that I have recently crossed swords with are from the Old School: blamers, bullies and bullshitters.

    They are currently getting somewhat of a comeuppance, but not soon enough.

    Their attitude seems to be: “Healing the sick? Patients? Management? Oh yes, them… but only if we have the time to look into it. Meanwhile, I have a paper trail to audit for fault.”

  28. bushfire bill @ #236 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 7:20 pm

    Oakeshotte County, it seems the particular bunch of administrators that I have recently crossed swords with are from the Old School: blamers, bullies and bullshitters.
    They are currently getting somewhat of a comeuppance, but not soon enough.
    Their attitude seems to be: “Healing the sick? Patients? Management? Oh yes, them… but only if we have the time to look into it. Meanwhile, I have a paper trail to audit for fault.”

    Some I have met seem to have satisfied only one criteria to get the job. They are shameless liars.
    Good luck with your battles.

  29. There have not been “matrons” in the NSW Health System for at least 30 years and the term is considered insulting. The current position of Director of Nursing DON has no jurisdiction over medical staff and if he/she has issues directs them to the Director of Medical Services DMS (who used to be the Medical Superintendent). Ward nursing unit managers do have interaction with residents but must take serious issues to the DON and then to the DMS. If the residents are being given a hard time they can approach the seniors on their team, the Director of Education and Training or the DMS. It has not been my experience that there is significant abuse. However, I know that the medical indemnity insurers receive a reasonable number of calls from residents seeking help on bullying but this is mainly from the registrars and consultants. The first thing that is established is the difference between bullying and appropriate performance management.

  30. I guess one part of being an administrator is the necessity to be willing to fall on your sword. This has certainly happened recently at St Vincents and Bankstown in Sydney. In one case the DMS had certainly failed in his duty but in the other several administrators were forced to resign for something they had little control over. For me as this is a hobby/retirement job it wouldn’t be such a problem but for someone who has made a career out of administration it would be a disaster. I think some of their evasiveness and defensiveness is related to this. I really enjoy seeing the blind panic that hits our unit when we hear that the CEO has pulled up in the car park.

  31. Appreciating the medical discussion, I must say our teaching hospitals are leading edge when it comes to advanced surgery.

    And after junior doctors/registrars graduate to consultant rates in a public hospital, how much do they earn? Having some relatives in the game, $400-$600k per annum as a specialist (and this is taxable income after expenses) is not uncommon. Good GPs in commercialised Medical Centres get similar amounts as sign on incentives, as long as they stay bonded for a few years.

  32. Appreciating the medical discussion, I must say our teaching hospitals are leading edge when it comes to advanced surgery.

    Yep I would always choose surgery in a teaching hospital than a private hospital.

  33. Bemused,
    I didn’t hesitate due to thinking you are thin skinned, far from it.
    My hesitation was due to the discussion touching on something still seemingly raw for you, and why wouldn’t it be. Secondly, one’s experience of health service providers can be very subjective, for example, I’ve recently come close to firing my GP. She used some poorly worded phrases in a report which I was able to read when I got home. I then confronted her at the next appointment and she was most apologetic. She’s on probation as far as I’m concerned.

  34. The first thing that is established is the difference between bullying and appropriate performance management.

    The rules surrounding performance management are often blurred by public health administrators to their own advantage. They tend to become self-serving excuses to get out the rubber truncheons and the telephone books (telephone books don’t leave bruises).

    There have been reforms in policy compared to the bad old days where the manager could be (and often was) “victim”, cop, prosecutor, judge, jury and executioner.

    However, HR culture is still mired in the bad old days, and certain managers take full advantage of it and the “implements of torture” that HR offers to them. It’s Future shock meets Ancient History. NSW Health is a particularly egregious example of it.

    The unions are emasculated, seeming to be more interested in just getting on with the bosses than the benefit of their members. The HSU, in particular, is a sad case, understandable I guess, after the rough time they have had in recent years. They are in shell shock. Just when privatizations and mass redundancies “change management” are starting to get into full swing under “Dimples” Baird, the workers reps are MIA. It’s a pity hospital workers aren’t greyhounds. Or perhaps not…

    Some of the management antics I’ve witnessed in the last couple of years would make your hair curl: breaches of confidentiality, mobbing, failure to act under mandatory policy, outright lying, excuse making, blaming the victim,intimidation and psychopathic, obsessive management strategies. When the victim complains, they are only more harshly treated, so let’s add “victimization” to the list.

    But eventually so much hatred and bullshit is about that they start to make mistakes, big ones, ivory tower-threatening ones. The knack to lying is creating a plausible story from the start, and then sticking to it. Once the liar turns to bullying to cover his or her tracks, if the employee has enough fortitude to stand fast against the storm, then winning through becomes distinctly possible. Basically, relying on management to eventually fuck up is a good bet. They had it too easy in the past, and now that they’re supposed to deliver outcomes based on proper process (or risk funding), many of them flunk it.

    Of course, on the downside, many staff either can’t or won’t stick it out and leave in a veil of tears. This is endemic across all Local Health Districts from my reading. Some poor saps, sick of the stress and mental anguish, even apologize for being such bad workers as they make for the exits. From my experience, most of what goes (and remains) “on the record” after the shredding party has gotten rid of inconvenient documents is then custom designed to make the management who persecuted them out to be saints, not the sinners they really are.

  35. Bushfire Bill,
    I’ve been reading of your and HI’s travails on The Pub and am pleased with how it’s gone thus far for you both.
    Stand up to the bastards.
    Anyway, off to watch those who have more money than sense AKA Grand Designs and long may the Libs enjoy such smooth government.

  36. OC, ‘It has not been my experience that there is significant abuse’. One reason for this is that it doesn’t exist. Another reason is that it is not reported. Your next statement about insurers seems to indicate the complaints are bypassing the in-house process.

  37. Which LHD are we talking about here?

    No comment, sorry. Still ongoing.

    Hopefully not for much longer with recent high-profile management resignations, sackings, transfers and major breaches of privilege and confidentiality. So many of the accusers have now become the accused.

    You’d liketo think (or hope) it’s just “bad apples”, but the deeper you drill down, the rottener it gets. One has to reuctantly come to the conclusion that the poor management discovered culture is systematic. Whether due to weak leadership, or malevolent is another question.

    But at the moment my advice is “Trust no-one. Take no prisoners”.

    It’s worked so far.

  38. Not at all – the point that the insurers made was that they don’t often get involved because appropriate performance management is not bullying.

  39. Some bad new.
    Greens vote surges in Victorian council elections
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/greens-showing-a-strong-surge-in-early-counting-across-both-sides-of-the-yarra-20161022-gs8hm2.html
    I think this is in part attributable to the fact the Greens were the only party endorsing candidates and campaigning for them.
    So I suspect many voters, rather than risk voting Lib or Labor, depending on their inclination, may have voted Green.
    In my area there were members of other political parties standing, but they did not stand as candidates for their party and in many cases did not reveal their affiliations.

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