I’ve been a bit tardy updating BludgerTrack this week, but as you can see below, you haven’t been missing much. The moral of the story is that a single Essential Research result is unlikely to change much under the new set-up, particularly when, as present, it accounts for 16 out of 20 available data points. Things may be different when, presumably, Newspoll comes along either tonight or tomorrow night. No new numbers this week on leadership ratings. Keep reading below the fold for a whole bunch of material on party games, and also note that there’s a separate post below this one for presidential election discussion.
• The Victorian branch of the ALP last week signed off on Kimberley Kitching as Stephen Conroy’s Senate replacement, following the Right faction warlord’s surprise retirement announcement in mid-September. Kitching is a lawyer with Cornwall Stodart, and was formerly a Melbourne City councillor and general manager of the troubled Health Services Union. The royal commission into trade union corruption recommended charges be pursued against Kitching relating to allegations she completed tests for workplace entry permits on behalf of union organisers, but none have been forthcoming in the two years since. Kitching was effectively unopposed in the vote by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, as factional arrangements reserve the seat for the Right. She had won the Right’s backing ahead of Diana Taylor, former Clayton Utz lawyer and a director at the Geelong Football Club, who had support from Richard Marles, federal front-bencher and member for Corio. According to the Herald Sun, other nominees included “Warrnambool city councillor Jacinta Ermacora, former state member for Benalla Denise Allan, Maribyrnong councillor Sarah Carter and 2010 Young Victorian of the Year Wesa Chau”.
Kitching and her husband, Andrew Landeryou – whose VexNews blog trod on many a toe until he retired it in 2013 out of deference to his wife’s political ambitions – are both close to Bill Shorten. Reports have identified widespread criticism of Shorten’s actions within the party from mostly unidentified sources, although Anthony Albanese declined an opportunity to endorse Kitching, saying her preselection was “a matter for the Victorian branch”. Albanese also said there was “a case for ensuring that members have votes in Senate pre-selections” – true of the his own branch in New South Wales, but not in Victoria. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that a Left-sponsored motion at the Victorian party’s state conference next month will propose “giving members a greater say in Senate preselections”.
Labor sources quoted by Katherine Murphy of The Guardian claim Shorten’s backing for Kitching was motivated by a desire to harness HSU numbers as he seeks to plug the gap in his factional network created by Conroy’s departure. James Campbell of the Herald Sun earlier reported that the sudden exit of Conroy was causing ructions in the Right, owing to a power-sharing agreement that had been reached between the secretaries of the Australian Workers Union, National Union of Workers, Transport Workers Union and the power bloc associated with state MP Adem Somyurek. It was understood at the time that the TWU vote was a proxy for the broader Conroy group, but it now stood to fall entirely to the union’s secretary, John Berger, leaving Conroy’s other allies out in the cold. Berger’s favoured candidate was Bill Baarini, TWU union officer and former mayor of Hobsons Bay, but Shorten concurred with a view that this would violate the party’s affirmative action rules.
• Further argybargy is unfolding in the Victorian ALP courtesy of a Left faction split between the “National Left”, associated with Anthony Albanese, and the breakaway “Industrial Left” of Victorian Senator Kim Carr. This was formalised after the election when a Left majority resolved to dump Carr from the front bench in favour of Linda Burney, the former New South Wales deputy state leader and newly elected member for Barton. Bill Shorten ensured Carr was accommodated by expanding the front bench, reflecting the importance of the “stability pact” between Carr and the Shorten-Conroy axis in managing affairs the Victorian branch’s affairs. However, the split meant Carr ally Gavin Marshall no longer had Left support to retain his position as Deputy President in the Senate, which has instead gone to Sue Lines from Western Australia.
Marshall last week foreshadowed preselections against Victorian members of the National Left, who include two shadow cabinet members in Jenny Macklin (Jagajaga) and Catherine King (Ballarat) and a junior front-bencher, Andrew Giles (Scullin). As James Massola of Fairfax reports, Marshall confirmed he was organising a challenge to Giles, although no candidate has been identified; claimed there was “discontent in Ballarat”, and that it was a “possibility” he would back a challenge to King; and suggested Macklin could be sure of being spared only because it was “well known that she is retiring”, which a spokesperson for Macklin denied.
• Bob Day, Family First Senator from South Australia, announced last week he would resign from his position after his home building group went into liquidation. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Day hopes to be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, Rikki Lambert, who shares his zeal for a pro-business line on workplace relations. However, he faces opposition from Robert Brokenshire, a Liberal-turned-Family First member of the state parliament, and perhaps also Lucy Gichuhi, a Kenyan-born lawyer who was Day’s running mate at the July 2 election.
• A motion moved by Tony Abbott at yesterday’s state council meeting of the New South Wales Liberal Party calling for democratised preselections was reportedly defeated by 246 votes to 174. This was pursued despite the concurrence of Malcolm Turnbull and Mike Baird that the proposed measure should feature among a range of reforms to be considered at a party convention next year, to which state council agreed. Abbott’s proposal would involve plebiscites of party members for all preselections, which is broadly favoured by the party’s hard Right and opposed by the centre Right and the moderates, since it would diminish the importance of the latter’s control of the state executive.
• A poll conducted by Research Now last month for the Australia Institute asked 1426 respondents to list their first and second favoured options for the government to negotiate with in getting legislation through the Senate, which found 54% rating Labor first or second compared with 42% for the Nick Xenophon Team, 32% for the Greens and 29$ for One Nation.
707 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Lenore Taylor tells us that Coalition needs to abandon poverty politicking and fix its own ‘welfare mentality’.
Turnbull still has money tied up in Big Tobacco shares. How principled.
Mark Kenny says that Turnbull’s consolation is coming. Christmas.
Turnbull’s ‘gun week’ was worse that you thought says Max Chalmers.
Tim Dick writes that the minority party, the Nationals, and their fringe views is holding the country to ransom. It has few supporters, fringe views, a religious constitution, and a clown for a leader, he says.
Peter Martin is unhappy as Treasury chief John Fraser ditches wellbeing as the rest of the world catches on.
Now Trump says he will sue every one of the women who have come forward to accuse him of unwanted sexual advances and worse.
Trump is a vile misogynist but he’s not the only one.
Trump’s death march is likely to be ugly and destructive.
Section 2 . . .
Squaring off Trump’s views with those of America’s founding fathers.
Here’s a parody of the third presidential debate.
Peter FitzSimons goes ballistic over Leyonhjelm.
John Howard says gun laws should be strengthened, not weakened.
How can millions of unused bedrooms be freed up?
Come on fellas – have the balls to have a vasectomy!
How this young Iranian woman gave up wearing the hijab to get on in Australia.
The way in which people are being exploited by spiv labour hire companies (and those who use them) is more than disturbing. Why can’t (or won’t) governments trample these unscrupulous, unprincipled bastards down? Google.
Mark Knight gets ready for the Philip Island motorbike races.
lizzie @ #3 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 7:44 am
The native grassy groundcover project that I have been involved in for the last five years is coming to an end of its funding and we are investigating how the IP and infrastructure can be continued as a not for profit organisation. One of the ares under consideration is mine rehabilitation.
The big issue though is the apparent lack of prior set rehabilitation standards.
Morning all. Thanks BK. That one on ex-private sector banker and now Treasury chief John Fraser abandoning measuring wellbeing says it all really. There is no evidence government is trying to effectively regulate banking. They are not even enforcing existing laws on them (yes wealth managers, fraud is still a crime). Instead it is going the other way. The private banking culture is being forced on Treasury from the top down.
How would Fraser respond to a GFC mkII? Austerity, no doubt.
Thanks for the links as always BK.
The misogyny article from the Guardian is particularly appreciated!
In the ACT election thread I made a lot of comments about light rail projects and how they tend to be the most cost effective transport option currently available. Those who criticise LRT cost should read this article about cost blowouts on the Sydney northern beaches busway project.
In Europe they are building LRT schemes for less than that busway, even in high wage countries like France and Germany. Why? It is the cost of land. The corrupting of land development decisions in Australia has meant huge urban areas have been built in the last two decades without corridors set aside for transport links. So now we either buy land (costly) or build tunnels (even more costly). LRT schemes take up less space than other modes. So in this dumb new world they tend to be the cheapest, or least bad option. Plus more people use them.
At present I consider we are wasting a lot of money planning and building out of date urban transport solutions. Our failure to build adequate bikeways is another good example.
I notice in the article that wherever there is a possibility of valuable minerals till left in the ground, Ministers are reluctant to support rehabilitation. Meanwhile, the acids are killing wildlife, and downstream vegetation. If the mine is still owned in the hope of future profits, the owners should be made responsible for funding clean-ups, regardless.
For a Labor state organisation that was said to have been ‘reformed’ its starting to show some real ‘cracks’ in the structure.
Hopefully Shorten can keep this under control.
Spokesman for Josh Frydenberg in regard to the Tiwi Is Port Melville development (waved through by Hunt with no environmental assessment!):
That means ordered by the court!
It is clear to see the Trump train is going off the rails, my best hope is he can drag half the GOP Congress down with him.
Some happy reading for you. On current trends Trump could cost the Republicans control of the Senate(68% chance).
socrates @ #13 Sunday, October 23, 2016 at 8:55 am
Which, I think, means the Supreme Court also. The real glittering prize that hopefully will be denied the right wing for a generation to come.
Actually on the Tiwi Is thing I missed a big part of the ‘Lib speak’.
‘The validity of the Department’s decision …’
The ‘Department’ advises. It’s the Minister that makes decisions.
(I think it unlikely that the Department advised that no assessment was necessary.)
This morning’s BIG question for BK.
Can I bring myself to watch Insiders with that whining prat Pyne featured YET AGAIN?
Thanks, the article on the Nationals is a good one. With their abandoning many rural communities to appease CSG and mining interests, even their country party roots are dead. They are a rotten borough, of the kind Burke used to complain about.
Though I have to say, we also saw public acknowledgements of plummeting membership in the NSW Liberals this weekend too. They are no more Liberal than the nationals these days. Just a different set of vested interests.
Yes indeed. That is why many repugnant Senators up for reelection are quickly distancing themselves from Trimp. Clinton has run a good campaign.
On that hopeful note, have a good day all.
My question is answered. 30 seconds of Pyne on Insiders and I was outta there!
BK – I record and wait to see if its said on here that a bit of it is worth watching.
Pyne’s voice is like a nutmeg grater.
Pyne telling whoppers on Insiders.
If you’re going to do it, make sure the lies are huge.
No trouble. Magnificent week. Government not distracted. Abbott and Turnbull in lock-step. No gun deal then or now. Sensational achievements. Civil war in Labor not us. Red herrings. No need to lift game. All our legislation is passing the Senate. More legislation passing that Rudd or Gillard governments ever did. This is all insider, beltway stuff. No-one cares. National Audit office is wrong. I blame the media.
He’s quite hysterical.
What a hateful little twerp.
Pyne falls back on the Trump defence.
Answers all questions “Wrong”.
“CFMEU scaring old ladies at night.”
See? They’re thugs.
Oh for god’s sake! He bragged about being able to touch women without their consent because he’s a celebrity. Shorter Trump: how dare these women accuse me of doing the things I bragged about doing!
Mal Brough and Wyatt Roy got the heave ho. Why didnt Pyne? Surely there is enough stuff on him to move him on. But yet here he is, continuing with the lies and delusions. Why has he been a protected species in the fiberal party?
5m5 minutes ago
Hmmmm another Defence minister Dan Tehan told me on @RNDrive that Pyne is more senior IN cabinet #auspol #insiders
I’m sure Pyne can outshout any female in Cabinet (and any man, for that matter).
Theme of Insiders: the Turnbull government can’t get its act together on anything.
Yep. Pyne is the epitome of verbal diarhea
From William above
Some quality candidates there without the baggage carried by Kimberley Kitching.
I checked Wesa Chau on LinkedIn and a most impressive young lady.
As well as assisting with gender diversity, she would have given the ALP a bit more ethnic diversity.
And she is super smart. Her academic record just blows me away.
Only O’Dwyer rivals Pyne’s motor mouth!
Perhaps Pyne possess’ a filing cabinet full of sufficiently ‘high quality’ dirt files ?
Sounds about right
I am sick of the pages being stuck, having to log back in and seeing Julie Bishop, if you have to get anyone please get someone nice
Socrates; the observation of new public transport user.
I live in what could be called a domicile town. We now have a train every half hour or less. Showing up at the station and catching the next train is now an option. In peak hour we travel beside a freeway that is stopped; a constant reminder of what we face if we take to using our cars again; should our memories fade.
Freeway time is longer than train time even when outside peak hour travel.
The problem with the train system now is more people are waking up(I was slow) and are using it; at peak hour there is not enough trains; there is a lot of standing up.
There seems to be two limits; trains have to pass and you have to have the trains.
We are getting extra passing areas on our track and train parking lanes to store the trains, so they start the day in the right location. The service is going to get better; more trains; more reasons to use trains and leave the car in the car park (which is also being enlarged).
Every train discharges about 600 people, if they all used the road; a car per person; that is about 6km of road just to park the cars; freeway parking being a common event at peak hour. Most drive with a little stopping distance; the length to move the 600 on a freeway increases as the speed increases.
It is hard to believe but 600*10 is 6000m = 6km; two trains represent about one peak hour freeway lanes.
It really is a no brainer, trains not extra lanes is the cheaper way to go if you want to move people at peak hour and moving people; one person per car is what blocks up our roads.
I can’t think of any grounds on which he CAN sue them. There are no defamation laws in America as far as I am aware.
It sounds like an empty malicious threat to me, designed to frighten off any more women who might be thinking about coming forward.
I find I don’t have to log in as often as before the changes to the blog. But it’s annoying that there is no direct pathway to log back in.
Trump is a classic whinger. He can dish it out but can’t take it in return.
Confessions @ 3:59 on previous thread
Yep. I agreed with a comment C@t made about certain commenters not having a life and simply spending all their time posting here. It’s bizarre, as she indicated.
That post may be the most oxymoronic ever! (wow! I love that word! Ill informed people think it’s personally offensive, which it’s not!)
At 4 o’clock on a Sunday morning, ‘cranky old men’ are tucked up soundly in bed. Bright young things should be out , painting the town red, or whatever psychedelic colour is in fashion at the moment. It’s bizarre indeed to find you here, without anything better to do than abuse senior citizens. .
‘oh this grace the good Lord gi’e us/ to see oursel’s as others see us.”
Pyne is an information free zone; it really is quite extraordinary. Post truth politics in full swing.
I thought he had resigned?
Tam o’ Shanter
39m39 minutes ago
Tam o’ Shanter @davidlamond
Savva on #insiders: Bob Day not yet tendered his resignation – why has Senate president not sought it? Oh yeah Numbers – #ABCC #auspol
LOL! Too funny. 😆
I thin someone said the other day he’s trying to draw out his resignation so he can influence his replacement.
What a bunch of spivs we have representing us in Parliament
Yes agree, have to re log into crikey itself,then ,after being frighten to death by Julie Bishop, find blogs and finally poll bludger .
Poll bludger does not update if not logged in.
I deal with it as follows.
1) sign in from the header line.
2) When the crikey front page is displayed use the browser back key this takes you back to poll-bludger and displays the unsigned in page.
3) Use the page refresh key this gives you a signed in page.
You will be logged in; you will get the latest comments; you will not have to see JB.
Confessions @ 10:46
I would imagine that Mr Day’s influence is as ephemeral as his assets. Still, who can tell with Family First?
BTW re yours of 10:45 : I’m glad to have lightened your sleep deprived day!
Why do we as a nation let it be like this:
A comment on the US election could it apply to one or two that frequent this place
“Elections, like wars are not won by bystanders. Pick a side. And fight for it. “